How much is CHEAP bribe?

[IamRonin]

I am playing a prince level game, of vanilla Civ 2 without any patches. The period is around 40 AD.

I am sharing a continent with one other smaller civilization and often at the outskirts of my border city their settlers would show up and work on the fields.
I have a diplomat nearby and often I like to bribe their settlers as they come up as NONE home base settlers, which I think is valuable.

I was wondering what people deem as a cheap bribe for such a thing? I have since stolen 3 of their settlers paying each time between 950 – 850 gold, my treasury is around 5000 gold and my net profit per round is around 130 gold.

Do you guys think this is a good deal or am I ripping myself off?

Comments appreciated.

 

[Sharkbait]

I would say that since you can rush buy 2 or 3 settlers for about the same amount, it isn't worth bribing them. Its always nice to have a NONE settler, but no shield support is less attractive to me than a higher number of settlers, since I could plant 2 more cities and still have 1 settler left, and my 2 cities would be producing more shields than the shield cost of a supported settler.

The price drops the further away your dip/spy is from their capital you are, so if you do still want to bribe them, make sure that your unit is as far away as possible from their capital (so on the far side of the unit).

 

[IamRonin]

I would say that since you can rush buy 2 or 3 settlers for about the same amount, it isn't worth bribing them.

Yes that logic makes sense. Unfortunately for me my opposition (the Mongols) have a small portion of the continent and they are always very close to the capital.

I guess 900 gold is rather expensive, however I do put a higher than usual value on NONE support. I am under a Republic and support for Settlers are expensive.

I just got railroad advance not long ago so I need as many helping hands as I can without stifling city growth. As long as my Civ is making money I don’t mind.

 

[Sharkbait]

How much to bribe some of their cities? This may be better value and reduce their irritation value. Or with Railroad and some decent firepower, a quick bit of annoying them to a level where they attack you (or else change govt and declare war) may end the problem altogether!

 

[Ali Ardavan]

I was wondering what people deem as a cheap bribe for such a thing? I have since stolen 3 of their settlers paying each time between 950 – 850 gold ...

I used to often wonder about such questions. But no more. Nowadays I apply Peaster's rate of return analysis and it is very useful.

A None settler/engineer in a celebrating Republic/Democracy is worth 40 shields plus one tile's output for one turn plus 2f+1s per turn afterwards for support. Typical tile in a celebrating Republic/Democracy gives you 2f+1s+2a. Thus the unit is worth 41s+2f+2a upfront. Assuming one food is worth one shield (rough estimate based on switching from forst to shielded unimproved grassland) the upfront worth becomes 43s+2a. Now assuming you can buy a shield towards a unit with 2.5 coins and that each arrow is equivalent to 1 coin (both could be worth more depending on the circumstances) the upfront worth is 109.5g.

The ongoing worth is 2f+1s. Using the same assumptions as above that turns into 7.5g.

A great rate of return is 5%. A good rate of return is 3%-4%. Thus, to get a great rate of return you should pay no more than 259.5. For a 3% rate of return you should pay 359.5. At 850 you are getting a mere 1%.

If your republic/democracy is not celebrating yet, then the upfront worth is more since you have to fill the food box to get back the citizen you lose to the settler. For a city of size n, the food box is 10*(n+1)f which translates into an additional 25*(n+1) coins. For a city of size 7, this is an additional 200. Thus, the unit will give you a 5% rate at 459.5.

 

[Ace]

Ali, does the above calculation take into account the lost value of the citizen/worker(s) you lose when the city maxes out its food supply and cannot continue to grow because that settler using two food stops growth?

A city with just one suplus food can grow, and if the new citizen can work a hex that produces two food, it is self-suporting, and it will continue to grow. (I.e., grassland, irrigated plains, and lake/sea hexes with a harbor.) So, theoretically, a small city in a good location could be losing several citizens because that one settler halts its growth due to food shortages.

 

[Ali Ardavan]

Good point, Ace. Obviously, my calculation does not take that into account. That was deliberate as that is harder to account for since it comes much later in the game.

However, let me try to rectify that. Assuming that your city is about to max out, that extra citizen is a specialist. By that time, your city has lots of improvements and you are likely to get 6g for a taxman. At 5%, 6g per turn is worth an additional 120 upfront. At 3% it is worth 200 upfront.

 

[Ace]

Good point, Ace. Obviously, my calculation does not take that into account. That was deliberate as that is harder to account for since it comes much later in the game.

Not so much later. If one goes for early Republic, it is possible to discover Republic by the 6th or 7th advance. Granted, construction and sanitation are farther along the tech tree, but, you can still grow your cities to size 8 and your not forced to have specialists until size 20/21. A city can run out of food surplus at a very small size if it is forced to support a settler.

However, let me try to rectify that. Assuming that your city is about to max out, that extra citizen is a specialist. By that time, your city has lots of improvements and you are likely to get 6g for a taxman. At 5%, 6g per turn is worth an additional 120 upfront. At 3% it is worth 200 upfront.

Huh? At 5%...120 upfront. At 3%...200 upfront. ??? Are your results reversed?

 

[Ali Ardavan]

Huh? At 5%...120 upfront. At 3%...200 upfront. ??? Are your results reversed?

120 invested now at 5% per turn yields 6 per turn. So if I desire a 5% return, I shall pay an extra 120 for the settler (on top of the amounts discussed earlier) to account for the extra citizen. If I am happy to get a 3% return, then I shall happily pay up to an extra 200 for the settler.

 

[Ace]

Ok, that makes sense.

 

[Peaster]

Ali: Looks good.

IMO this kind of calculation just cannot include every factor. We should expect any two analysts to disagree by 20%, or so, but it's still useful. My gut feeling is that the settler is worth about 250g in any govt. I agree that the food box is fairly important, but you can always home a settler to a non-growing city, if necessary, and you can always "buy a food box" (a food van into a city with granary/Pyr) for 125g.

I didn't notice any major factors missing in your calculation. But in a bribe, TWO things happen:

1) We gain a settler
2) The Mongols lose a settler.

If IamRonin is competing with the Mongols, then item 2) might be just as important as item 1). So, he might pay up to 2x the normal value. If he just doesn't care about them [a spaceship game, for example], we can ignore 2).

-----------------------------

IamRonin: Good question. And if you have 5000g, you should spend it on something useful. IMO the main choices are vans (for profit, plus science OR for WoWs) and settlers (for more cities). These should give you a 5% return, or more. Not-bad choices are: more boats, diplomats, vet units (IF you mean to USE THEM in battle, fairly soon) but these units are not such good "investments" as vans or settlers. IMO bribing units/cities from civs with no capital (or from barbs) usually makes sense, and small cities are usually a better buy than units - especially settlers. The bribery formula includes a penalty for those.

 

[Stegyre]

I didn't notice any major factors missing in your calculation. But in a bribe, TWO things happen:

1) We gain a settler
2) The Mongols lose a settler.

If IamRonin is competing with the Mongols, then item 2) might be just as important as item 1). So, he might pay up to 2x the normal value. If he just doesn't care about them [a spaceship game, for example], we can ignore 2).

Fair enough, but I doubt he will ever be able to purchase a settler/engineer so cheaply, as the bribe cost for them seems to be double that of a regular unit.

If we are talking efficiency, economic or otherwise, it seems much better to (a) create your own NONE settler (founding and quickly disbanding a city sufficiently close to another civ, and (b) KILLING the Mongol settler.

@ Ali: Thanks very much for the analysis, which appears to vindicate my own approach of creating numerous NONE settlers for substantially less than the values you indicate. Now, I have something to show my finance minister to prove we're getting a great return.

 

[IamRonin]

Guys very good in depth analysis. I had no idea Civ 2 benefit vs cost could go so deep.

 

[Peaster]

If we are talking efficiency, economic or otherwise, it seems much better to (a) create your own NONE settler (founding and quickly disbanding a city sufficiently close to another civ, and (b) KILLING the Mongol settler.

Interesting idea, and probably better than bribing. But this way, the NON costs you 80 shields. Seems too much to me. Instead of disbanding the small city, I'd rather rehome a settler to it. In effect, I'd get a NON, plus the benefits of an extra small city... arrows, production/support, territory.

Actually, with my fast-growth style, I wouldn't waste time rehoming. I'd just make a new city ASAP.

 

[jonel1111]

As a general rule, I play a Scorched Earth policy. If I didn't place the settler, then the city dies. I've paid upto 2000 (or more) for a None settler. If you have the money to spare, the cost is irrevelent. Buy the settler, then buy the city. Make all the cits into scholars, start another settler, the city shrinks down to size one, and you get another None settler. Use the troops that came with the city to proect it while it dies and send the None settlers back to work your self-started cities. Do your exploring with with diplomates and spies. They die a lot, but you also get to buy None troops to protect them. If you open a hut and get a city, start a settler and contiue exploring. If you get barbs, either buy them or run to a vacant hut city and give it to the barbs. This is a lot of fun if your exploring near an enemy town.
I normally play on Deity, large map, ravening hoards, large land mass varied as to continents or archipegios, with 7 tribes.

 

[ElephantU]

A NONE Set or Eng is invaluable playing One City Challenge, but you cannot employ the build&disband trick. Once I get Explosives I gift it to the AI (I gift just about everything anyway) and start hunting for a new Eng at the edges of AI empires. A good deal is in the 200-400g range, but I've spent up to 800g when the pickins are slim. Two Eng and a Set can irrigate or farm in one turn, and two Eng can clean a pollution skull the same turn it happens. The extra two specialists can give me twelve extra beakers per turn each.