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How would Russia react to EU economic blockade?

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Winner, Mar 30, 2009.

  1. Winner

    Winner Diverse in Unity

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    Inspired by the discussion in this thread (page 14/15).


    What if...

    ... for some reason, the EU imposed an economic embargo against Russia accompanied by blockade of their Baltic/Blac/Barents sea ports? EU would demand that Russia returns Kalingrad to the EU, leaves Georgian and Moldovat territory and stops meddling into Ukrainian and Belarussian affairs. EU would make it clear that it won't lift the embargo until Russia complies with the conditions of the ultimatum.

    Let's not bother with discussing how ridiculous and unrealistic this scenario is, I know that. The question is - what would the Russians do? Would they go to war? Would they cave? Assume that the EU has managed to secure alternate supplies of natural gas/oil from elsewhere, so it can maintain the embargo for years.

    Discuss :D
     
  2. plarq

    plarq Crazy forever

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    War!

    tenchar
     
  3. Reno

    Reno The Studio Ghibli Fanatic

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    They might threaten Europe with war, but there's just no way I could see them actually going ahead with any such threats; assuming Europe stood united behind this ultimatum. If the Russians failed to secure other ways of replacing the European market (China and Asia alone wouldn't suffice as a replacement), they might actually cave in to the demands.
     
  4. Winner

    Winner Diverse in Unity

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    What if they invaded the Baltic states, occupied them and thus secured a land connection with Kaliningrad, but stopped right there?
     
  5. RedRalph

    RedRalph Deity

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    Fantasy land, total fanasy land. Funny how Russia is the most reviled country on CFC because of a handful of pathologicaly hate-filled eastern Europeans and american sociopaths.
     
  6. Reno

    Reno The Studio Ghibli Fanatic

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    Then they'd have to deal with NATO, even if the EU's threats were to be empty, NATO is an entirely different matter. ;)

    That's a bit harsh.

    Russia hasn't exactly given us all too many reasons to love it either. Personally I haven't got a problem with the nation or the people, but the government.
     
  7. McManus

    McManus Thinkers friend

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    My guess is they would do what they do now: divide and conquer.

    They would actively seek some member-state that they could do business with on a one-to-one basis, and turn that against the EU.
     
  8. RedRalph

    RedRalph Deity

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    It's non-stop. how many threads do you see about Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Columbia or for that matter Georgia or Afghanistan compared to Russia? All of those places worse to live in, but all aligned with the west so they get more or less ignored... theres 5 threads a week criticising Russia...

    There is plenty of legit criticism to be made against Russia, but far more against the countries I've listed above, but that dosent suit the agenda of some of the fruitcases on this site who want to pretend its still the McCarthy era... seriously, look through the last 3 pages of OT and see how much hatred is directed towards Russia. If as much as directed against the Americans people would be laughing it off as obsessive anti-americanism.
     
  9. Yeekim

    Yeekim Moderator Moderator

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    Trade embargo is one thing, but blockade of ports would require declaration of war, I believe.

    Therefore they would nuke Poland. :smug:
     
  10. Camikaze

    Camikaze Administrator Administrator

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    And this is the bit that pretty much screws Russia over. In the situation you have outlined, I don't see them having any bargaining power. Other than military action. Which would fail. And what a righteous act by the EU this would be.

    Actually, it is possible that China would help Russia, if only to alleviate the pressure on itself from Russia.
     
  11. Winner

    Winner Diverse in Unity

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    I don't think so. EU = mostly NATO countries. Since NATO has a different decision making procedures (unanimity is required), I think the EU is actually more capable of reaching a decision. If the EU made these threats, then the NATO would either back it or be totally irrelevant as a major player. EU can use its planning/command infrastructure anyway.

    If the EU decided to be so harsh, it is fair to assume it would be united as never before. Divide and conquer in this situation is not an option.

    Not really, not in case of Baltic/Black sea. Barents sea is more open and crawling with Russian ships, so it would be difficult to do it there, but Baltic/Black seas can be totally closed for Russian shipping, because the ships need to cross EU's territorial waters.

    :lol:

    The question is if the Russian psyché can take surrendering to Western powers. I feel they'd rather go to war and lose rather than to give up.

    Meh, they had it coming :mischief: Don't forget, this is the evil mirror-universe EU :D

    Help... how?
     
  12. Reno

    Reno The Studio Ghibli Fanatic

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    Some of it might be because people expect better from a modern nation such as Russia; it would be unrealistic to expect Saudi Arabia to act according to western standards, for example.

    Columbia and Afganistan are old news, yes there's still fighting, etc, going on there, but at least Afganistan has been discussed dead already back when the war there was still a fresh topic.

    Not sure why Egypt specifically would warrant discussion...

    As for Georgia, some of the poor conditions there can be thanked on the Russians, and past Soviet policies with regards to the region.

    And if one is sick and tired of threads on certain topics, it's simply best to ignore such threads completely. That's what I do for most OT topics anyway.
     
  13. Reno

    Reno The Studio Ghibli Fanatic

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    Perhaps, I was mostly thinking of the added weight of the Americans behind the NATO tag in addition to Europe.
     
  14. Winner

    Winner Diverse in Unity

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    Oh. Well, I left the American out of this on purpose, let's just say they don't give a damn and stay neutral in this conflict. Obama says something like "Well, do what you want, but don't expect us saving your butts if things go wrong," and then he goes on saving the world again ;)
     
  15. Yeekim

    Yeekim Moderator Moderator

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    Then they would trade with Americas through Murmansk and Vladivostok.
     
  16. GoodGame

    GoodGame Red, White, & Blue, baby!

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    Y'ep exactly what I would have said. :)


    EDIT: For real, I think Russia would mostly cut diplo ties with the EU, raise a military alert, and protest in the UN. Not sure, but I wouldn't be surprised of some very tense naval maneuvers, escorting of cargo ships by squadrons, and potentially even some ship sinkings, accusations of piracy (Russian claims against EU nations). Not sure if Russia would really unleash the dogs of war (a wider war), but I'd expect the EU's navy near Russian waters would get a fight if they really tried to block shipping.

    In all it'd probably be a cause for war, and trigger some brinkmanship, displays of missile technology, but I think a lot would depend on what diplomacy the US used and how strongly it sided with the EU under NATO. Under the right conditions (right Russia leadership, right economic problems) it could be a powder keg that leads to world war.
     
  17. REDY

    REDY Duty Caller

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    In scneario I think that Georgia should be occupied for demonstration of power and willingness and after it would start cold war number 2.
     
  18. Winner

    Winner Diverse in Unity

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    They could try, but how much trade goes through Murmansk, exactly? IMHO not enough to keep Russian economy afloat.

     
  19. Winner

    Winner Diverse in Unity

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    And then what? Russian economy would still collapse.
     
  20. EnlightenmentHK

    EnlightenmentHK Emperor

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    Russia is a hated country because it behaves like an obnoxious, two-bit thug still playing the zero-sum power politics games of eras past. Refusing to acknowledge or incapable of understanding that most of the world has grown up a bit. That concerns like human rights, civil liberties, and self-determination are not mere cards played by the West to advance their own interests, but that they are paramount interests unto themselves and should be treated as such.

    Russia still insists on seeing any outside involvement in countries near her as a personal affront and intolerable threat to her security and interests. They treat domestic decisions of countries near her that don't go their way as sinister western subversion. Fact is, Russia is acting as if the Cold War is still ongoing and that mentality influences every aspect of her politics. Russia has not grown up. If they are reviled, that is the reason.
     

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