Hurricane Dean

Quasar1011

Quasar1011

King of Sylvania
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Since Dean is already a category 4 hurricane, and poised to become a category 5 storm after it ravages Jamaica, I decided it needs its own thread.
Here's the latest information on Dean.

National Hurricane Center Public advisory:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml

National Hurricane Center Discussion bulletin:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml

Satellite image of Dean:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html

News item on Dean:
http://news.aol.com/story/_a/deadly-storm-blasts-through-caribbean/20070817035409990001

The official forecast track and strength:
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/1500Z 15.7N 68.6W 130 KT
12HR VT 19/0000Z 16.4N 71.0W 130 KT
24HR VT 19/1200Z 17.3N 74.3W 135 KT
36HR VT 20/0000Z 18.3N 77.8W 125 KT...NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA
48HR VT 20/1200Z 19.5N 81.4W 140 KT
72HR VT 21/1200Z 21.5N 88.5W 100 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 22/1200Z 23.0N 94.0W 110 KT
120HR VT 23/1200Z 25.4N 100.0W 50 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

The tracking map:
 

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Apon reading the thread title, I thought that Howard Dean had decided to run for president!

But on topic, I hope this passes without too much incident. I'll be checking on it...
 
YYeeeeaaaarrrrgggghhhhh!

This will be hell for Jamaica. I suppose it had to happen at some point, but whomever gets in the path of this one is going to get a beating. Especially given how warm the Gulf waters are at this time.
 
Bush, who received two hurricane briefings at his ranch, signed a pre-landfall disaster declaration, allowing the federal government to move in people, equipment and supplies immediately in case Hurricane Dean hits the state

"We are working closely with the state of Texas to address the special-needs populations along the south Texas border, which is the current, projected path of the storm," Johndroe said.
Click to expand...

Deans projected to hit Texas.
(At least thats what the article says)

EDIT: If it dose hit I wonder what message deeply religous Bush will conclude from this ?
 
Forget what Bush says about it now, how well (or poorly) could southeast Texas hold up after a summer of flooding?
 
It was reported, in an interview, the hurricane screamed:

"I'm goin to Jamaica! And then Cuba! and the yucatan pennisula! and Mexico! AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!"
 
ansar said:
:rotfl:

Funny, John. :goodjob:

(Why do we care about this Hurricane? Is it because of it's name?)
Click to expand...

Because it could be a humanitarian disaster for millions in Jamaica and Mexico?

And most importantly, because its projected path is straight for little ol' me :(

South Texas has not had a real hurricane since 1999 though, and Katrina (which for the longest time was supposed to strike us head on) was the closest thing we have had since.
 
I live in the area (Houston, TX) that Dean is suppose to hit. Most of the area is already flooded pretty badly (I believe the local news said the last time we have a 24-hour period without rain was back in May).

Should find out today if I have to evacuate or not.
 
The Yankee said:
Forget what Bush says about it now, how well (or poorly) could southeast Texas hold up after a summer of flooding?
Click to expand...

I have no idea, but the Southern Counties of Houston are still under water and flooded. So more water isn't going to help things.
 
Mr. Dictator said:
becuase it's coming dangerously close to where white people live
Click to expand...

Yea, because Jamaica and Mexico are just chock full of white people.

The Hurricane wont even be a category 3 by the time it hits the USA (if it does). Oh, and stunning that USA news networks might care more if its about to hit the USA!

I personally would not be able to stand the media saturation if it covered every Typhoon in the Pacific like it does Hurricanes that...you know...could actually affect thier viewing audience.

Or were you just kidding around and I missed it? :p
 
Azale said:
Yea, because Jamaica and Mexico are just chock full of white people.
Click to expand...
He meant because it was hitting the US.

We don't care about Jamaica or Mexico (we hate illegal immigrants anyways, so this is helping by drowning them) ;)
Azale said:
Or were you just kidding around and I missed it? :p
Click to expand...
He's kidding around.

If it does hit Corpus Christi (or wherever you are), please report that you're ok! You're a vital member of fiftychat!
 
Geez, how did this thread get so politicized? A hurricane doesn't care who it hits.

Anyway, Hurricane Dean now is a category 4 storm, with maximum sustained winds of 145 miles per hour, and with higher gusts. The latest forecast track from the NHC has the eye of the storm passing along Jamaica's south coast. That's not good. :( The strongest winds in a hurricane are in the right-front quadrant with respect to motion; in Dean's case, this means to its north. The best hope is that the eye remains offshore, sparing Jamaica the worst of the wind. We'll know which scenario occurs within the next few hours.

I might add that the National Hurricane Center is doing a good job with the path of the storm, but originally didn't expect Dean to strengthen more than category 3. I'm also watching various hurricane models to see which one is predicting the best path. I want to see what happens with Jamaica before I post my opinion on that though. So far, persistence (the hurricane moving along the same vector) is working.

The Cayman Islands are next on Dean's "hit list", and then the Yucatan peninsula. The NHC has revised Dean's expected landfall in the Yucatan, to occur south of Cancun/Cozumel, rather than north (where they had it yesterday). This would be a worse scenario for those 2 resort cities. But the biggest issue will be the storm's strength. The waters between Jamaica and Mexico are even warmer than where Dean is now, so if Dean is going to reach category 5, it will do so before striking the Yucatan.

After that, Dean ought to make a second landfall in Mexico near Tampico, but moving across the Yucatan will weaken it somewhat.

The latest forecast track:
 

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Is it going to hit the Virgin Islands? My best friend is there!
 
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