Winner
Diverse in Unity
Outline:
Few years from now, Israel is ruled by right wing coalition led by Likud. Security situation changed little - Hamas is still in power in Gaza and it has rebuilt most of its infrastructed. The hopes that the international community would prevent arms smuggling were naive, and Hamas is now even stronger than it was in 2008.
After Obama's talks with Iran collapsed a year ago, the tension is mounting. Israeli PM Netanyahu is now pressuring Obama to approve and support an Israeli airstrike against Iranian nuclear facilities, the US president is reluctant, however. Iranian leaders are aware of the danger and a decision is made to divert the world's attention from Iranian nuclear programme back to a more popular spot - Israel. This diversion worked well in 2006 and 2008, so why not use the well-tested strategy again? After all, third time's the charm. This time, however, it needs to be something really big, otherwise it wouldn't have the desired effect.
Therefore, the Iranian secret service launches an operation to supply Hamas with newer, more potent missiles (let's say Fajr-5). That is not all, however. As a bonus, Hamas gets chemical warheads for these missiles and a small amount of Cesium-137 radiactive isotope. Hamas is being encouraged by the IRGC instructors to use it againt the Zionist regime as soon as a valid pretext appears. Hamas is at first reluctant, fearing massive Israeli reprisals reminiscent of the 2008-2009 conflict, but the Iranian pressure (including the threat to suspend all aid for Hamas) soon convinces the Hamas leaders that they don't have any other choice but to attack.
The pretext comes when IDF conducts few dozen airstrikes in the south of Gaza strip, targeting the partially rebuilt smuggling tunnels. The next day, dozens of Fajr-5 missiles hit Tel Aviv metropolitan area. The results are terrible - hundreds of dead from VX poisoning, large areas of the city contaminated by Cesium-137 with tens of thousands of people exposed to it.
The picture of Jews being gassed again (in their own country!) sends shivers down the spine of every Jew in the world. Shock is soon superseded by anger and Israelis erupt in rage. Almost everybody calls for revenge and this sentiment is only supported by the pictures of Palestinians celebrating the attack.
The Israeli reaction soon follows - Netanyahu delivers an emotive speech in Knesset promising "elimination of the Gaza threat". "Gloves are coming off" he adds. Israeli defense minister is quoted saying that "we're going to bomb them into oblivion." Ultimatum is issued to the UN, the other international organizations and journalists is Gaza to leave the Strip in 48 hours, otherwise Israel can't be held responsible for their fate. Partial mobilization in Israel is started, artillery and armored vehicles are amassing around Gaza Strip.
As the ultimatum expires, Israeli airforce conducts the most destructive air raid since the Vietnam war. As Netanyahu promised, Israel doesn't care about the civilian casualites now. In just one night and day of bombing, thousands of Palestinians are killed. Artillery soon joins the party and Gaza is being mercilessly pounded. The extent of devastation is off the scale, the city soon stops looking like a city. It's now hard to even guess how many people died, but estimates talk about tens of thousands. What's even more important is the huge river of refugees flowing to Egypt. At first, Egypt tries to stop them, but the border guards are soon overwhelmed by tens of thousands of people and give up.
Soon it becomes clear what's the Israeli strategy - the concentrated artillery barrage is slowly moving south to Egyptian border in a clear attempt to drive the Palestinians out. And it works - Egypt is now swarmed by hundreds of thousands of refugees. In just one week, the barrage reaches Rafah at the border with Egypt. By this time, more than a million Palestinians fled the Gaza Strip and are now struggling to survive in camps which are hastily being constructed by the Egyptian government and the UN.
Israeli ground forces meanwhile invade the Strip from the North and start the cleansing operations. Surviving civilians are being rounded up and transported first to Israeli detention camps in southern Israel and then to the West Bank. The border with Egypt is closed and IDF establishes a security zone here to prevent anybody from returning to the Strip. Egypt loudly protests and issues threats, but dares not to launch any direct intervention on behalf Gaza residents.
In just over two weeks, "the op" is finished and Netanyahu announces that "the Gaza threat has been removed once and for all."
Now, I want you to guess what the reaction of the world, especially that of the most important actors involved in the peace process (the UN, EU, USA, Russia) would be. Also, would the Iranian goal be achieved? How would it affect the future of Israel and the Palestinians? How would the Arab/Muslim countries react to this?
This is a purely hypothetical worst case scenario (though I tried to stay in the realm of possible), but I want you to be REALISTIC and really THINK about the most likely consequences. If you can't do that, don't say anything.
Few years from now, Israel is ruled by right wing coalition led by Likud. Security situation changed little - Hamas is still in power in Gaza and it has rebuilt most of its infrastructed. The hopes that the international community would prevent arms smuggling were naive, and Hamas is now even stronger than it was in 2008.
After Obama's talks with Iran collapsed a year ago, the tension is mounting. Israeli PM Netanyahu is now pressuring Obama to approve and support an Israeli airstrike against Iranian nuclear facilities, the US president is reluctant, however. Iranian leaders are aware of the danger and a decision is made to divert the world's attention from Iranian nuclear programme back to a more popular spot - Israel. This diversion worked well in 2006 and 2008, so why not use the well-tested strategy again? After all, third time's the charm. This time, however, it needs to be something really big, otherwise it wouldn't have the desired effect.
Therefore, the Iranian secret service launches an operation to supply Hamas with newer, more potent missiles (let's say Fajr-5). That is not all, however. As a bonus, Hamas gets chemical warheads for these missiles and a small amount of Cesium-137 radiactive isotope. Hamas is being encouraged by the IRGC instructors to use it againt the Zionist regime as soon as a valid pretext appears. Hamas is at first reluctant, fearing massive Israeli reprisals reminiscent of the 2008-2009 conflict, but the Iranian pressure (including the threat to suspend all aid for Hamas) soon convinces the Hamas leaders that they don't have any other choice but to attack.
The pretext comes when IDF conducts few dozen airstrikes in the south of Gaza strip, targeting the partially rebuilt smuggling tunnels. The next day, dozens of Fajr-5 missiles hit Tel Aviv metropolitan area. The results are terrible - hundreds of dead from VX poisoning, large areas of the city contaminated by Cesium-137 with tens of thousands of people exposed to it.
The picture of Jews being gassed again (in their own country!) sends shivers down the spine of every Jew in the world. Shock is soon superseded by anger and Israelis erupt in rage. Almost everybody calls for revenge and this sentiment is only supported by the pictures of Palestinians celebrating the attack.
The Israeli reaction soon follows - Netanyahu delivers an emotive speech in Knesset promising "elimination of the Gaza threat". "Gloves are coming off" he adds. Israeli defense minister is quoted saying that "we're going to bomb them into oblivion." Ultimatum is issued to the UN, the other international organizations and journalists is Gaza to leave the Strip in 48 hours, otherwise Israel can't be held responsible for their fate. Partial mobilization in Israel is started, artillery and armored vehicles are amassing around Gaza Strip.
As the ultimatum expires, Israeli airforce conducts the most destructive air raid since the Vietnam war. As Netanyahu promised, Israel doesn't care about the civilian casualites now. In just one night and day of bombing, thousands of Palestinians are killed. Artillery soon joins the party and Gaza is being mercilessly pounded. The extent of devastation is off the scale, the city soon stops looking like a city. It's now hard to even guess how many people died, but estimates talk about tens of thousands. What's even more important is the huge river of refugees flowing to Egypt. At first, Egypt tries to stop them, but the border guards are soon overwhelmed by tens of thousands of people and give up.
Soon it becomes clear what's the Israeli strategy - the concentrated artillery barrage is slowly moving south to Egyptian border in a clear attempt to drive the Palestinians out. And it works - Egypt is now swarmed by hundreds of thousands of refugees. In just one week, the barrage reaches Rafah at the border with Egypt. By this time, more than a million Palestinians fled the Gaza Strip and are now struggling to survive in camps which are hastily being constructed by the Egyptian government and the UN.
Israeli ground forces meanwhile invade the Strip from the North and start the cleansing operations. Surviving civilians are being rounded up and transported first to Israeli detention camps in southern Israel and then to the West Bank. The border with Egypt is closed and IDF establishes a security zone here to prevent anybody from returning to the Strip. Egypt loudly protests and issues threats, but dares not to launch any direct intervention on behalf Gaza residents.
In just over two weeks, "the op" is finished and Netanyahu announces that "the Gaza threat has been removed once and for all."
-----------------------------------------------------------
Now, I want you to guess what the reaction of the world, especially that of the most important actors involved in the peace process (the UN, EU, USA, Russia) would be. Also, would the Iranian goal be achieved? How would it affect the future of Israel and the Palestinians? How would the Arab/Muslim countries react to this?
This is a purely hypothetical worst case scenario (though I tried to stay in the realm of possible), but I want you to be REALISTIC and really THINK about the most likely consequences. If you can't do that, don't say anything.
