Hypothetical- Timur invades Ming China

Phrossack

Phrossack

Armored Fish and Armored Men
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I read Tamerlane: Sword of Islam, Conqueror of the World by Justin Marozzi, and wondered: What would have happened had Timur reached Ming China and lived to, say, the age of 90 or so? He started his march with 200,000 battle-hardened soldiers, and he was still quite mentally sharp. Meanwhile, the Ming had an enormous conscript army, many muskets, and cannon.

Logistics would be the first obstacle. Timur brought thousands of female camels for milk and meat, and each soldier had two milking cows, ten goats, and enough provisions for ten men.
 
Well he would have encountered the remains of the Mongol China and I assume, while fighting the crap out of them, would give China enough warning and time to prepare a strong defense against Timur. While I'm not sure of the strength, military strategies and capabilities of each empire, a prepared Chinese Empire, whose populace just overthrew foreign rule 50 years before, is not going to go down easy. And, unified China was a *itch to take down when it was ready.
 
Outside of a vague narrative of political and military events, I'm not well up on this and thus would not be much good; what was the state of Ming artillery at the time?
 
I checked. According to the Wiki, the Whole Ming Military didn't exist from their last war with the Mongols. They apparently asked for indepedence and the Mongol Khan was like "Yeah, why not."

In other words, Wiki doesn't say and I have no idea.

EDIT: I found this, but nothing else to tell us more about Ming gunpowder weapons.

 
aronnax said:
I checked. According to the Wiki, the Whole Ming Military didn't exist from their last war with the Mongols. They apparently asked for indepedence and the Mongol Khan was like "Yeah, why not."

In other words, Wiki doesn't say and I have no idea.
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That's not really how it went. The Mongol Yuan dynasty were being racked with internal conflict within their own government. China was beset by a series of natural disasters and famines that the Yuan administration was incapable of dealing with. This lead to the rise of regional rebel groups such as the red turbans among others. Eventually Zhu Yuanzhang would defeat the other factions including the red turbans, as the Yuan collapsed. Zhu Yuanzhang would become emperor of China in 1368. This desrcription is very much an abridgement.

After Zhu Yuanzhang consolidated his power the Ming military would be very powerful and organized. Zhu Yuanzhang's era name was Hongwu, which means great military power.
As far as information on military technology including artillery, the best source would be from Liu Ji's treatise on military technology called Huolongjing. Liu Ji was an advisor to Zhu Yuanzhang.
 
Dachs said:
Outside of a vague narrative of political and military events, I'm not well up on this and thus would not be much good; what was the state of Ming artillery at the time?
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An area of history of which Dachs knows little? Madness!:eek::D
 
If it's east of the Hindu Kush and the Altais, I'm usually not that well read on it.
 
Phrossack said:
An area of history of which Dachs knows little? Madness!:eek::D
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He hasn't used his time machine to travel there yet. In a few hours (our time), he'll be back to post an essay on the whole period, and his previous posts on the subject will no longer exist.
 
dannyshenanigan said:
That's not really how it went. The Mongol Yuan dynasty were being racked with internal conflict within their own government. China was beset by a series of natural disasters and famines that the Yuan administration was incapable of dealing with. This lead to the rise of regional rebel groups such as the red turbans among others. Eventually Zhu Yuanzhang would defeat the other factions including the red turbans, as the Yuan collapsed. Zhu Yuanzhang would become emperor of China in 1368. This desrcription is very much an abridgement.

After Zhu Yuanzhang consolidated his power the Ming military would be very powerful and organized. Zhu Yuanzhang's era name was Hongwu, which means great military power.
As far as information on military technology including artillery, the best source would be from Liu Ji's treatise on military technology called Huolongjing. Liu Ji was an advisor to Zhu Yuanzhang.
Click to expand...


I was being sarcastic... I'm trying to say that Wiki has no information about the statistics of the Ming Army. Hence if Wiki doesn't say it, it <sarcastic now> doesn't exist. Leading to the whole asking for permission thing.

Do you honestly believe that that is how I think the Ming freed themselves from Yuan? :rolleyes:
 
Phrossack said:
I read Tamerlane: Sword of Islam, Conqueror of the World by Justin Marozzi, and wondered: What would have happened had Timur reached Ming China and lived to, say, the age of 90 or so? He started his march with 200,000 battle-hardened soldiers, and he was still quite mentally sharp. Meanwhile, the Ming had an enormous conscript army, many muskets, and cannon.

Logistics would be the first obstacle. Timur brought thousands of female camels for milk and meat, and each soldier had two milking cows, ten goats, and enough provisions for ten men.
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I am curious as to why you made that statement. Was the Ming army really composed of enormous armies of conscripts or do you simply believe in the Russian-and-Chinese-have-nothing-but-weaklings-and-numbers stereotype?

AFAIK, China had a surplus of strong healthy young men and the Ming Army did not have to resort to drafting peasants and unwilling civilians into the army. The Ming involvement in the Imjin War shows that the Ming Army was composed of anything but conscripts.
 
Phrossack said:
I subscribe to no such stereotype. But from what I've read, the Ming had over a million men.
http://www.chinahistoryforum.com/index.php?/topic/9217-the-early-ming-army/
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Your argument is that "Ming had an enormous conscript army, many muskets, and cannon."

An army that has over a million men does not constitute as a conscript army. In fact, from your source, it says they are hereditary soldiers that every family feels obliged to provide a young male member for, not conscripts.

Anyway, if the Timur invades Ming China, I doubt they will end up winning anything at all.
 
I dunno- Timur was an extremely skilled, successful, and feared general who had squashed a huge amount of deadly opponents over his many years- hundreds of armored elephants and cavalry at Dehli, expert Mamluks at Damascus, and Bayazid's huge and veteran force at Ankara. Timur was also a shrewd politician who might exploit feelings of the Ming emperor's illegitimacy due to the recent power struggle.
 
Phrossack said:
I dunno- Timur was an extremely skilled, successful, and feared general who had squashed a huge amount of deadly opponents over his many years- hundreds of armored elephants and cavalry at Dehli, expert Mamluks at Damascus, and Bayazid's huge and veteran force at Ankara. Timur was also a shrewd politician who might exploit feelings of the Ming emperor's illegitimacy due to the recent power struggle.
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I rather doubt it. Yongle was the son of Hongwu afterall, and he was very good at exterminating opposition. And before becoming Emperor, Yongle was a highly competent and successful general with the loyalty of the veteran Northern Armies which had beaten the crap out of the Mongols, while Timur was a very old man. Even if Timur doesn't die, it is unlikely that he would be able to outgeneral the Ming.
 
Timur also beat the crap out of the Mongols, and he had over forty or so years of combat experience under his belt, losing only one battle due to his ally's refusal to assist at a crucial moment. A Ming campaign would be his toughest ever, no doubt, but his enormous, skilled, battle-hardened, and well-equipped force of cavalry should prove a match for the Ming, and he has the element of surprise.
 
Phrossack said:
Timur also beat the crap out of the Mongols, and he had over forty or so years of combat experience under his belt, losing only one battle due to his ally's refusal to assist at a crucial moment. A Ming campaign would be his toughest ever, no doubt, but his enormous, skilled, battle-hardened, and well-equipped force of cavalry should prove a match for the Ming, and he has the element of surprise.
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There were a lot of buffers between Ming and Timurid. Element of surprise doesn't work when you have Turkic nomads running from their lands into China crying for help.
 
Timur's reputation and background, combined with the promise of loot in wealthy China, might make those tribes ally with Timur. They would have less loot to gain from attacking the invading army.
 
Phrossack said:
I read Tamerlane: Sword of Islam, Conqueror of the World by Justin Marozzi, and wondered: What would have happened had Timur reached Ming China and lived to, say, the age of 90 or so? He started his march with 200,000 battle-hardened soldiers, and he was still quite mentally sharp.
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That's your first premise right there. 'Tamerlane: Sword of Islam'? AFAIK Tamerlane did his utmost best to attack and maim fellow Islamic nations. What makes you think he'd have the wits to attack such heathens as Ming China? His heritage also did not last very long, barely outlasting his own lifetime.
 
I know his main victims were Muslim; I didn't choose the title of the book. And yes, he was still sharp; in 1402, well into his sixties, he won one of his largest victories ever at Ankara.
 
JEELEN said:
What makes you think he'd have the wits to attack such heathens as Ming China?
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He died at Otrar on the way to invade China.
 
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