If China Invades Taiwan

[Samson]

We’re talking about submarines. If there are effective anti-ship missiles, then anti-ship submarines don’t matter anyway.

I do not know. I can imagine that knocking out converted cargo ships with surface launched missiles is possible, but to sink modern warships sub surface torpedos may be better. I know nothing though.

You'll need ships to launch this missiles from.

I do not think so:

ROCN Hsiung Feng II & Hsiung Feng III Anti-Ship Missile Launchers Truck

 

[red_elk]

These ones are not invulnerable too. It all comes down to who has more missiles and other area control weapons.
The balance is currently shifting to Chinese side, as far as I understand.

 

[Zardnaar]

These ones are not invulnerable too. It all comes down to who has more missiles and other area control weapons.
The balance is currently shifting to Chinese side, as far as I understand.

Balance has been on China's side for ages.

It's very high risk though. In addition to other countries getting involved amphibious invasions are very touch and go espicially large scale ones.

A botched invasion could result in a lot of dead little emperor's due to one child policy.

It's the type of thing that could bring down the regime.

And they couldn't do it secretly so Taiwan would be on alert.

 

[João III]

These ones are not invulnerable too. It all comes down to who has more missiles and other area control weapons.
The balance is currently shifting to Chinese side, as far as I understand.

Are we ignoring air superiority or forgetting it? The US Navy has the second largest air force in the world. Not to mention that China has a grand total of one (1) aircraft carrier. China trying to invade Taiwan within the next 5 years or so would probably go as well as Hitler's invasion of the UK (unless the US just leaves Taiwan out to dry)

 

[migalhone]

China has time on it's side. They don't need to rush an invasion of Taiwan.

 

[Gelion]

Are we ignoring air superiority or forgetting it? The US Navy has the second largest air force in the world. Not to mention that China has a grand total of one (1) aircraft carrier. China trying to invade Taiwan within the next 5 years or so would probably go as well as Hitler's invasion of the UK (unless the US just leaves Taiwan out to dry)

I suggest you check out the wiki for the progress in Chinese aircraft carriers program.

 

[Zardnaar]

Are we ignoring air superiority or forgetting it? The US Navy has the second largest air force in the world. Not to mention that China has a grand total of one (1) aircraft carrier. China trying to invade Taiwan within the next 5 years or so would probably go as well as Hitler's invasion of the UK (unless the US just leaves Taiwan out to dry)

That's being generous. They've got a ship that can launch planes. I don't think it can function in combat that well.

 

[Samson]

I suggest you check out the wiki for the progress in Chinese aircraft carriers program.

Again, back to the ground launched anti ship missiles. Such capital ships would be very vulnerable in that crowded bit of sea.

 

[Zardnaar]

I suggest you check out the wiki for the progress in Chinese aircraft carriers program.

Big difference in building them and having them usable. USA has had decades of experience and training China's being struggling for 9 years or so using an old ex Soviet pike of junk that was out dated when the USSR existed.

Their carrier planes are underpowered (hence why they buy Russian engines) and can barely launch with any payload.

Even if they can technically get something into the sky they have no experience operating a carrier in combat conditions, little experience in combined arms and no one to really train them as the Russians weren't good at that either.

Most carriers are small the few nations with proper ones are in NATO or allied with NATO or UK.

The Chinese don't even have a decent catapult system worked out.

 

[red_elk]

Aircraft carriers are indeed vulnerable to missiles. I doubt this is to China's disadvantage in the area, though.

 

[Gelion]

...

Again, back to the ground launched anti ship missiles. Such capital ships would be very vulnerable in that crowded bit of sea.

I was only responding to the claim that China has 1 aircraft carrier and apparently won't have any more in the next 5 years.

 

[Zardnaar]

Aircraft carriers are indeed vulnerable to missiles. I doubt this is to China's disadvantage in the area, though.

Yeah I would be more scared of Chinese missiles than Chinese fleet.

The article quoted is essentially saying they will cram a few thousand troops on civilian ships and use them to transport them to Taiwan.

They would need complete air supremacy, neutralise Taiwanese missiles and have captured a port.

Otherwise they have to beach them or use smaller boats to land them on a beach 1915 style.

 

[Zardnaar]

I was only responding to the claim that China has 1 aircraft carrier and apparently won't have any more in the next 5 years.

They might have some but trials, experience and a plane to fly off them are problems.

 

[Gelion]

They might have some but trials, experience and a plane to fly off them are problems.

True, it takes time and effort to build a working assault fleet.

 

[Zardnaar]

True, it takes time and effort to build a working assault fleet.

Consider this. Every country is that didn't have carriers since WW2 has struggled with them.

Most of the relatively few countries with them are using old cast offs, WW2 vintage ones, or are very small.

Only 3 countries can build good ones. 8 countries have them, 6 have helicopter ones.

Of those 8 a good chunk have old WW2 or Soviet ones and the Soviet ones weren't good 35 years ago.

 

[João III]

I suggest you check out the wiki for the progress in Chinese aircraft carriers program.

Please re-read what I wrote. Never said they wouldn't have anymore aircraft carriers in 5 years, just that they currently have 1 and that an invasion within 5 years would go poorly.

And I did read Wikipedia, it said China may have 5 or 6 by the 2030s. The US has 11 active aircraft carriers right now.

 

[Zardnaar]

And those US ones carry around twice the planes that are combat proved.

F-18 vs Chinese knockoffs of Su-33 with underpowered engines.

 

[Samson]

Please re-read what I wrote. Never said they wouldn't have anymore aircraft carriers in 5 years, just that they currently have 1 and that an invasion within 5 years would go poorly.

And I did read Wikipedia, it said China may have 5 or 6 by the 2030s. The US has 11 active aircraft carriers right now.

Would they need aircraft carriers, or could they cover the island from the mainland? It is about 100 miles.

 

[Gelion]

Please re-read what I wrote. Never said they wouldn't have anymore aircraft carriers in 5 years, just that they currently have 1 and that an invasion within 5 years would go poorly.

And I did read Wikipedia, it said China may have 5 or 6 by the 2030s. The US has 11 active aircraft carriers right now.

They have 2 already (and 2 under construction) and I did interpret your 5 years phrase a little liberally, true.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

Chinese aircraft carriers are not to be feared as long as they carry Chinese aircraft.