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I'm so sorry: Australia is having an election and it's going to be very dumb

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Arwon, Apr 10, 2019.

  1. FriendlyFire

    FriendlyFire Codex WMDicanious

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    Originally a term for Vietnamese whom fled after the communist invasion, at least the vast majority were Christian which helped integrate them quickly into western countries
    Problems started after 9-11 since the new wave of boat people were muslims and the Liberals realized they could use it as a wedge issue
     
  2. metatron

    metatron unperson

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    @Mise

    2. They had David Leyonhjelm who's basically a Senator by accident.
    Here:
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/how-mistaken-identity-and-luck-won-on-the-day-20131004-2uzse.html
    High entertainment value. The guy has - among other things - mopped the floor with lying "feminists" for 5 years.

    Anyway, the article has a number of other weird electoral happenings.
    It's almost as if STV and AV and RV and all that nonsense were dysfunctional bollocks and one should better go for PR or DMP* or MMP.

    *Only if one likes math / likes headaches / is Canadian / doesn't mean it anyway / all of the above.

    1. That lady i mentioned, Senator Larissa Waters, who breastfed in the Senate while motioning and whatnot (who also probably is generally cute enough that Joe Biden would pinch her :mischief: ), actually resigned 44ing over an accidental Canadian citizenship and had to be re-shoehorned into the Senate.
    Which happened rather promptly, for all these reasons.
    But, Takh, the British are very nice people. :)
    ( *deadpan* )
     
    Last edited: Apr 30, 2019
  3. Arwon

    Arwon

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    An essay in the Monthly about the normalisation of racist far right ideology by a certain media organisation in Australia

     
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  4. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    ^

    :lol:

    A sad state of affairs.
     
  5. Arwon

    Arwon

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  6. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    :rotfl:

    It is really incredible that one would post an image of a female centaur on his page...
    I am speechless.
    Don't these people know that all centaurs were male? ^_^
     
    Mise likes this.
  7. AmazonQueen

    AmazonQueen Virago

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    I'm not sure his lack of knowledge of Greek mythology is what will strike most people as odd about his having posted that :mischief:
     
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  8. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    Yes, i was trying to be funny ^_^
     
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  9. Arwon

    Arwon

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    The Liberals have lost two candidates in Victoria today, due to bigoted comments.

    Jeremy Hearn, the Liberal candidate in Isaacs (a Labor seat by 3%) was disendorsed by the party over some pretty extreme anti-Muslim hate speech. Peter Killin, candidate in unwinnable Wills, resigned hours later from the Libs, for comments made about a gay MP from his own party and preventing gay MPs from being elected. Among other things he referred to the libertarian MP Tim Wilson as "that notorious homosexual".

    Neither of these are likely to have been winnable seats for the Libs, and AFAIK, they'll stay on the ballot because that deadline has passed. In the case of the disendorsement, the Libs will stop campaigning there, pack up their support resources, and redirect them elsewhere. In the case of resignation I assume the same thing happens.

    Both of these candidates are products of a recent attempt by Christian conservatives to take over the Victorian branch of the party. Victoria is the most progressive State in the country and this takeover attempt has badly hampered them there, resulting in a terrible State election a few months ago. That fallout, along with the impact of the replacement of Turnbull by Morrison as PM, has led to multiple resignations by sitting members, one of whom is now standing as independent against their former party and might do some damage.

    No word yet on the status of the guy in NSW the safe Labor seat of Paterson who said women can't get equal pay because they lack business skills but I suspect he'll be okay.

    Edit: and apparently Labor have disendorsed their second Senate candidate in the NT (also unwinnable) over sharing the David Icke lizard conspiracy theory. Jeez.
     
    Last edited: May 1, 2019
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  10. Arwon

    Arwon

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  11. zazazuzu

    zazazuzu Warlord

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    No problem, as long as you know that nobody in the rest of the world is going to give a ****.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 1, 2019
  12. Mise

    Mise isle of lucy

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    What are the chances of Labor winning the thing then? The seat lead is quite large but how many of those seats would go the other way if the vote share was on the wrong side of the margin of error?

    Also you're a Green right? What would be a good result for you guys?
     
  13. Arwon

    Arwon

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    Not sure about probability. Any sort of swing is likely to change the government because the government doesn't have a majority currently.

    For the Greens, the existing Green held lower house seat (Melbourne, unsurprisingly covering central Melbourne) looks quite safe. I don't think there's a strong prospect of a second lower house seat, but four seats in Melbourne are vague possibilities in the sense that they're paying $5 or less for the win with the bookies. The two they'd normally be the best chance in are Labor held and probably not getable in a national swing to Labor, the two Liberal seats are speculative chances only.

    Fairly uniquely in Westminster systems the Senate is democratic and co-equal with the lower house, and it's the main game for the Greens.

    A really good result would be defending every one of the six Senate seats up for election, including Queensland, South Australia and New South Wales which look like difficult propositions. Victoria, Tasmania and WA should be safely returned, and the Greens have three other continuing Senators).

    With or without that, the Greens ending up being the balance of power (seats that, by themselves, make a majority of 39 with Labor) would be the ideal. That could happen even with Green losses, if Labor take those seats and others.

    More likely, they'll lose one to three Senate seats and share the balance of power with others, particularly two Centre Alliance Senators from SA who aren't up for election this time. Ideally Labor plus Green plus Centre Alliance will add up to 39 from July. That would be a net gain of two.

    It's relatively unusual for the combined left or right to achieve the 57% of the vote (or thereabouts) to gain 4 of 6 seats in the Senate in a State. That roughly defaults the two sides to 38 each, so relatively small shifts in composition matter.

    Currently the numbers are weird because all 12 senators were elected in 2016, there's more minor parties, and the Senators up for vote this time are a touch scrambled.

    The right is defending 4 of 6 seats in NSW, while the left are defending 4 of 6 in Tasmania. Both of those probably wash back to 3 v 3. The left is only defending 2 in SA so someone should pick that up, but SA is weird and could elect Centre Alliance at anyone's expense. With a 3rd left seat in SA, a fourth in Tasmania or Victoria would then achieve this.
     
    Last edited: May 1, 2019
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  14. Ferocitus

    Ferocitus Deity

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    Very often, after distribution of votes on a 2PP basis, the difference between Liberals and Labor is less than the total informal vote.
     
  15. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    Not very australian. Why not something about the bunyip? :)
     
  16. Takhisis

    Takhisis is it fall yet

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    up yours!
    Important question: am I the only First Dog on the Moon reader out here?
     
  17. Ferocitus

    Ferocitus Deity

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    I hope so. :)

    I gave up on the Graun after MI5 (or MI6, or both) "forced" Alan Rusbridger to smash up hard drives with a hammer.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Rusbridger#Publication_of_Wikileaks_and_Edward_Snowden_material

    After that strange farce and after Rusbridger left, many uncorroborated articles started to appear, especially about the Ukraine-Russia fiasco in Donbass. Luke Harding wrote some really weird ones claiming that there were thousands of Russian tanks on the Ukraine border. No photos, no corroboration from locals. The BBC sent one of their journos to a village where Harding said he witnessed a tremendous fight between Russian and Ukranian soldiers. The BBC reporter spoke fluent Russian and Ukrainian (unlike Harding). Nobody in the village knew what Harding was on about. They said they had heard a shot a couple of nights before but thought nothing of it. The BBC reporter found a house near where Harding said the main action occurred. There was one bullet hole through a window pane. :shifty:

    The Guardian is, of course, essential reading for those who need guidance to wear "difficult" clothing and footwear: e.g. "How to Wear Open-Toe Shoes" (I kid you not!).
     
  18. Arwon

    Arwon

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    I follow him on Twitter but haven't looked at his stuff much since he left Crikey
     
  19. Takhisis

    Takhisis is it fall yet

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    up yours!
    ¿¿??!!
    But, but David Squires-
     
  20. Ferocitus

    Ferocitus Deity

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