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I'm so sorry: Australia is having an election and it's going to be very dumb

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Arwon, Apr 10, 2019.

  1. Arwon

    Arwon

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    It's only 17.25 here right now, polls close at 18.00. Then maybe 60-90 minutes before there's anything meaningful. I think Cami is probably about right, we should have a good picture of who won in a bit over 4 hours.
     
  2. Thorgalaeg

    Thorgalaeg Warlord

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    Australia is going to win the Israeli Eurovision, so i put my money on the Europeist-zionist party.
     
  3. Arwon

    Arwon

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    It's gonna be a long night, at this stage the Coalition is much closer than polling suggested. Tony Abbott has lost his seat to an independent though.
     
  4. Zardnaar

    Zardnaar Chieftain

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    It's first past the post?
    Here they're saying it's 52/48% but under fptp that can be close or a blowout.
     
  5. Arwon

    Arwon

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    It's preferential voting, number every box. America calls it instant runoff, UK called it alternative vote. 52/48 is the figure from distributing preferences to the two major parties.

    It is still single member districts so it still can function like FPTP in terms of the national vote and seat count being fairly different. South Australian state government elections, for instance structurally favour Labor even if the Libs get 52 or 53% of the state vote, due to super lopsided rural seats concentrating useless votes within them.

    "Sandbagging" close seats so you lose the overall count but win in seat counts is also a viable strategy here. It's quite possible the Coalition loses the overall national vote but wins by protecting and gaining Queensland seats while the Labor Party gains vote shares uselessly in seats they already have.

    At this stage it just looks like the opinion polls were systemically wrong by about 3%, which is a different issue.
     
  6. Arwon

    Arwon

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    Other thing to remember is the Coalition need to basically hold their seats in Western Australia to form a majority government, which is 2 hours behind everywhere else and polls only recently closed.

    There's also still a path for this swing back to Labor - early voting hit record levels this year, about 25% of all votes. They can't be counted til tonight, so they mostly haven't been added to the totals yet because they're huge piles of votes.

    If they're systemically different, in that the people voting early are more urban/mobile/politically aware and left voters, then it means the booth totals registered today are demographically different to the past. And once the prepolls are added things could well snap back to projections from the opinion polls. MAYBE.

    This has been an issue in the election modelling before, but the scale of pre-poll voting is new and may have changed things.
     
    Last edited: May 18, 2019
  7. Zardnaar

    Zardnaar Chieftain

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    So you won't know who has won yet?
     
  8. Arwon

    Arwon

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    We don't know anyway because at this stage it's going to come down to WA.

    But also, it's quite likely nobody actually knows they have a majority tonight, which means negotiating for support with the half-dozen or so members on the crossbench
     
  9. Old Hippy

    Old Hippy Chieftain

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    a lot of praying to come second... then a sacrifice that the preferences go your way
    tho my local labor candidate seems to have won... according to the 'oracle' Anthony Green
     
  10. Arwon

    Arwon

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    Look the ACT did its bit
     
  11. Camikaze

    Camikaze Administrator Administrator

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    My seat is looking like it has a fairly sizeable swing to the Libs. I'm not banking on pre-polls; I thought I had heard or read beforehand that the Coalition were confident the pre-poll count would benefit them.
     
  12. Old Hippy

    Old Hippy Chieftain

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    so did Adam Brandt (Greens)... I'll sacrifice a pizza to the gods that helps labor in the final count
     
  13. Arwon

    Arwon

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    Swans are up tho
     
    Old Hippy likes this.
  14. Old Hippy

    Old Hippy Chieftain

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    only to be expected they were born in my electorate before the redistribution
     
  15. Arwon

    Arwon

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    And the Raiders are level with Souths now!
     
  16. Arwon

    Arwon

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    Raiders up!!
     
  17. Arwon

    Arwon

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    Raiders down ):
     
  18. Arwon

    Arwon

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    The solution to all Australia's political problems is making the ACT a state on the same representation terms as Tasmania. Give us 12 senators and 5 lower house MPs.
     
  19. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    So, still not known what the result is?
     
  20. Arwon

    Arwon

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    SWANS

    we never lose in Tassie
     

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