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I'm so sorry: Australia is having an election and it's going to be very dumb

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Arwon, Apr 10, 2019.

  1. Arwon

    Arwon

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    Liberal National coalition seems to be reelected, whether they can govern alone or need support from pro-climate action conservative independents is as yet undetermined.
     
  2. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    You speak in cryptic australian, biding your time like the deceiving platypous.
     
  3. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    That is terrible.
     
  4. Arwon

    Arwon

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    It's a horrifyingly bad outcome, polls were catastrophically wrong
     
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  5. Arwon

    Arwon

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    Best case looks like conservative pro-gay pro-climate-action independents constrain the returned Coalition govt.
     
  6. Camikaze

    Camikaze Administrator Administrator

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    Although this result was not expected, it has a very 2013 vibe - a truly dumbfounding outcome. Queensland boggles the mind. I'm quite reflexively anti-populist, but it's hard for the hot take not to be that this is largely the media's doing, and that the lesson to be learned is that you really do need to grovel before Murdoch to get elected in this country. It's very unfortunate that Shorten will take a lot of blame when it's hard to see what he's done wrong. I've never understood why he is so unpopular. And Labor will no doubt be reticent to try anything bold for the next decade.

    Unlike many people, I'm not in a position where the outcome of this individual election is going to materially impact on my life. But it's very worrisome long term if the Australian public has seen how this election has played out, and decided to back Morrison. I think it's fair to treat it as an inflection point (or a clear sign that there has been an inflection point), with Australia embracing a more right-wing, individualistic, short-sighted philosophy. Bob Hawke's death is an unfortunately fitting metaphor. On the other hand, I suppose there's an argument that this is really just 2004.
     
  7. Ajidica

    Ajidica High Quality Person

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    Jeez Australia, were you dropped on your head recently? The Great Barrier Reef is being poisoned and you re-elect this bunch of weirdos
     
  8. Arwon

    Arwon

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    It's going to mess with my job.

    The ALP need to put Andrew Barr in charge.. Every state is bad, ask the territory leaders how to govern, Barr is the only successful progressive Labor leader who has governed. Albo is a jovial NSW-compromised fraud. Listen to us in the ACT, the rest of your people are failures. All future Labor candidates should be Barr Andrews endorsed.
     
    Last edited: May 18, 2019
  9. Camikaze

    Camikaze Administrator Administrator

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    As much as I don't see what Shorten has done wrong, I have also failed to see over the last 6 years why Tanya Plibersek isn't the leader, seeing as she has clearly been Labor's best communicator over that time, and Shorten's campaign was largely, "trust me, I've got Plibersek on my team".

    See Abbott, Tony. The fact that his very wealthy, highly educated electorate voted him out, is clearly not a reflection of where the rest of the population is at.

    It's a turkeys voting for Christmas situation as well, in that the Coalition have won this on the back of a massive swing in their favour in Queensland, who will be most affected by the death of the Reef. It seems the Adani coal mine actually worked in the Coalition's favour.
     
  10. Arwon

    Arwon

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    vote for Barr
     
  11. Old Hippy

    Old Hippy Chieftain

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    just echoing your points and would add Bill never really comes across on camera very well ( I like him personally) while Tanya is a natural on camera the only reason Bill was still around in my opinion was the 'don't appear' to be still in the leader back stabbing business
    this election just proves it does not affect poll results that much when the other side brings out the knives 3 times over that last 6 years
     
  12. Arwon

    Arwon

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    Greens look like holding nearly everything
     
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  13. Zardnaar

    Zardnaar Chieftain

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    I'm a left leaning centrist in New Zealand and this was what I was talking about in other threads.

    If you go to far left (or right) you will probably get hammered in the polls.

    Around 25% of the population are going to vote left or right no matter what, another 20% (each) leans left or right. That leaves maybe 10% and probably no more than 15 or 20% total that will swing an election.

    Left wing voters for whatever reason tend to get blinders on or hang out in echo Chambers. The right won here, Trump can win 2020 (hope not), and National can win here next year ( I don't think they will but they can). Polls usually have a 3% margin of error as well and that's enough for polls to be wrong.
     
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  14. Arwon

    Arwon

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    That's not a very good reading of either major party here
     
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  15. abradley

    abradley Chieftain

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    Looks like the Good guys won.
     
  16. Zardnaar

    Zardnaar Chieftain

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    Labour campaigned on higher taxes? It's kind of how it was reported here.

    Labour here in 1999 campaigned on higher taxes and won.

    It's just people seem surprised. BBC reported it as a shock win.
     
  17. Arwon

    Arwon

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    Yeah the polling over the last 3 years was persistently and consistently saying something else, that's why it's a shock. Something went wrong with their methods by the look, possibly in how they allocated the right wing micro party voter preferences.
     
  18. Zardnaar

    Zardnaar Chieftain

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    Is it still in the margin of error. And how would you poll preferential voting anyway? Seems fptp or popular vote is easier to poll.
     
  19. Arwon

    Arwon

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    It's in the MoE of one poll. 200 polls, not so much. Evidently the last three years of polls were all consistently a long way off, from well before anyone was talking about specific electoral policies.
     
    Last edited: May 18, 2019
  20. Zardnaar

    Zardnaar Chieftain

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    Polling here is fairly accurate. Each ekwctiin cycle the media gets excited about a party and they tend to do well and win.
     

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