In case of acute insomnia: Federal Diet Election 2017

metatron

unperson
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So, on September 24th Germans will elect the 19th Federal Diet, i.e. the lower house of parlament i.e. what is generally accepted to be the thing that matters.

This is largely a "pro forma" thread, on the vague notion that there maybe should be one.
Cause this is one mother of a summarily boring campaign.

This is largely the case because as early as May it has become rather clear that the opposition has no chance to come up with a swing anywhere close to what would be needed to seize power:
Spoiler :

There has been some hype - as you can see - with memes and everything, which lasted all of, like, six weeks.

In case you are unfamiliar with German politics, you can - rather crudely - file the small parties as 2 and 2 right/left of center respectively.

If trends hold, there will be 6 factions in the 19th Diet, up from 4 now:
The FDP (yellow), a longstanding staple of German politics, will reenter parlament (think: social libertarian tax cutter business types).
And the fabled AfD (blue) will likely enter as well, for the first time. So far their (semi-)latent racism, general unproffessionalism, hilarious demeanor and the fact their presumptive front bench personel has awesome timing for finding themselves subject to criminal prosecution is - so far - the sole redeeming quality of this campaign - as far as the entertainment value is concerned.

With this 6 party situation and the AfD deemed untouchable a continuation of the current coalition between the two major parties is virtually a foregone conclusion.

Probably the last chance for the opposition to gain substantial momentum is the TV debate (we only have one), which is scheduled for September 3rd.
This is unlikely to happen since Merkel has a tried and true method of turning public debates into something slightly more boring than filling out tax forms while intently listening to white noise.

In case you care: Germany's upper house is a complicated beast (i can refer you to writings of mine on the subject) and is not elected at the same time.

Anyway... needless to say, we're all very excited. :sleep:

Feel free to ask questions, post Polandball comics and/or Hasselhoff jokes.
It's not like we had much else to do between now and September 24th.

As i said: Terrible entertainment value.
We're very sorry.
 
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With this 6 party situation and the AfD deemed untouchable a continuation of the current coalition between the two major parties is virtually a foregone conclusion.

I would say there is a decent chance of a CDU/CSU + FDP coalition happening. Even CDU/CSU + Greens might be a possibility, although probably just a mathematical one.

But in any case, there do not seem to be any coalition options that do not include Merkel. :sleep:
 
I would say there is a decent chance of a CDU/CSU + FDP coalition happening.
Well, yes, and no. I mean, i suppose we'd have to define "decent" here.
Keep in mind that the AfD getting in (and low NPD vote as an incidental) and the demise of the Pirates has sucked the air out of the "others" category. So 46% isn't what it used to be.
But sure, it's concievable within the range that things could move in three odd weeks.

Seeing how little negative emotion i can muster vis a vis such a prospect, i suppose we could start to play "least favorite minister".
 
I wish US politics was this boring
Well, the question is this:
How much would you enjoy a Tester/Donnelly vs. Murkowski/Collins campaign?

If you answer is "a lot", come on over.
We won't hold your lack of profieciency in idiomatic Arabic against you. :p
 
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We had Clinton/Dole in 1996, which resulted in a turnout rate of 49%, the lowest save some election in the 1920s where the result was a foregone conclusion and Jim Crow laws prevented nearly all Southern black people from voting. Turnout has since gone up to an astoundingly high 55%. Granted, making only like 10 out of 50 states matter isn't helpful, but it shows how little people care about downballot races too, which is even more obvious in our midterms (36% in 2014).

So, back to Germany, is this strictly a federal election? Is anyone up for election besides the Bundestag MPs? If so, do you expect turnout to collapse given the lack of any plausible outcome but Merkel winning and forming a grand coalition?
 
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So, back to Germany, is this strictly a federal election? Is anyone up for election besides the Bundestag MPs? If so, do you expect turnout to collapse given the lack of any plausible outcome but Merkel winning and forming a grand coalition?
Yes, this is strictly federal (and lower house only).
(Incidentally my state government has collapsed unexpectedly resulting in a premature election and there was some talk of having both elections in one go, but since the liberal (former) state government didn't like that prospect. we'll have that election on Oktober the 15th. But that's neither here not there.)

I am not very confident about that guess. But i actually don't expect turnout to be terribly low. Like, there is energy in the FDP revival, the Chancellorette is popular (in a low energy way) not just inescapable, the Greens are scared (they dropped as low as 6.5% in some polls, that's dangerously close to the threshold) and of course everybody and their mum feels ever so slightly obligated to vote in order to proportionally reduce the AfD vote share.

So i am kind of expecting an average (albeit unenthusiastic) turnout.
 
So what's the wildest plausible outcome?
 
Why would anybody vote for the FDP? What appeals about them that doesn't about the SDP or CDU/CSU? Aren't they just going to form a coalition with the latter anyway, as (IIRC) they have in the past?
 
Why would anybody vote for the FDP? What appeals about them that doesn't about the SDP or CDU/CSU? Aren't they just going to form a coalition with the latter anyway, as (IIRC) they have in the past?
1. They are good with civil liberties.
This is particularly relevant now, since grand coaltions have the habit of being slightly dumb and coming up with slightly authoritarian BS and subsequently the FDP (or to a slightly lesser extent the Greens) have to come in and clean that stuff up.
2. Their economic conservatism is specific. Like if you are a small time industrialist or something or just plain rich by virtue of inheritance, you are almost as likely to be with one of the major parties as the general population. The FDP caters incidentally to the plain wealthy, but specifically to self-employed professionals and small business owners (you know, everything from the lawyer to the restaurant owner).

They are not like US libertarians, mind you. They subscribe to the system. No "taxes are theft" nonsense. They rather talk loads of BS about "effort" and such.
They like to claim to be the inheritors of Ordoliberalism. So that precludes "taxes are theft" shenanigans, to a degree anyway.
 
Why would anybody vote for the FDP? What appeals about them that doesn't about the SDP or CDU/CSU? Aren't they just going to form a coalition with the latter anyway, as (IIRC) they have in the past?
They have in the past formed coalitions with both CD/SU and SPD - though that is neither here nor there, currently they would be much mre likely to align with the CDU - though an SPD led coalition is completely inconceivable right now so they don't even need to pay lip service to that possibility anyways.

As for why would anyone vote for them: CDU and SPD took away my right to join a union (that does give at least a hoot about my concerns) with the SPD being the driving force, the Greens are very specifically opposed to pretty much anything I touch professionally (mostly research-wise) right now, the Linke is as always all over the place but has far too many EU- and NATO-phobic forces for my tastes and with Sarah Wagenknecht and her husband is attempting the full circle in being Xenophobic and aligning with the Xenophobes and vaguely fascistic AfD who are, well, fascists or atleast the closest to fascists that has yet entered the Bundestag. So there you have it: process of elimination.
 
CDU and SPD took away my right to join a union (that does give at least a hoot about my concerns) with the SPD being the driving force

What happeneded there ?
 
The "Tarifeinheitsgesetz" now states that only the union which by its own claims covers the profession in question and which has the most members in any given company (although "Betrieb" does note exactly equal company) can have their bargained contracts validated - essentially meaning that a union like mine which grew out of the fact that the the public service unions for decades treated physicians' interests as less than unimportant will never be able to bargain for their own contracts again. Essentially leaving me with the choice of not unionizing, joining a union (Verdi) which along with its predecessors has for more than 30 years not supported my interests but at every turn accepted worsening in work and contract conditions in exchange for improvements for their majority clientele, mostly not directly patient contact personell in hospitals, or as a third choice staying in my union which however can no longer bargain for valid contracts. In essence the promise of our constitution that the right to unionization is guaranteed for all professions has been downgraded to being guaranteed for all professions that constitute in themselves a majority in the companies they work in. Physicians are essentially no longer allowed to unionize in Germany. (Same is true for airline pilots once Verdi starts claiming that they also bargain for them) its also the essential dissolution of one of the oldest unions in Germany. I will not forget this betrayal by the SPD and will not forget that they were the driving force behind this. The insulting joke of course is that Andrea Nahles even claims that my interests are met since the law allows for my union to write a letter containing their demands.
 
The "Tarifeinheitsgesetz" now states that only the union which by its own claims covers the profession in question and which has the most members in any given company (although "Betrieb" does note exactly equal company) can have their bargained contracts validated - essentially meaning that a union like mine which grew out of the fact that the the public service unions for decades treated physicians' interests as less than unimportant will never be able to bargain for their own contracts again. Essentially leaving me with the choice of not unionizing, joining a union (Verdi) which along with its predecessors has for more than 30 years not supported my interests but at every turn accepted worsening in work and contract conditions in exchange for improvements for their majority clientele, mostly not directly patient contact personell in hospitals, or as a third choice staying in my union which however can no longer bargain for valid contracts. In essence the promise of our constitution that the right to unionization is guaranteed for all professions has been downgraded to being guaranteed for all professions that constitute in themselves a majority in the companies they work in. Physicians are essentially no longer allowed to unionize in Germany. (Same is true for airline pilots once Verdi starts claiming that they also bargain for them) its also the essential dissolution of one of the oldest unions in Germany. I will not forget this betrayal by the SPD and will not forget that they were the driving force behind this. The insulting joke of course is that Andrea Nahles even claims that my interests are met since the law allows for my union to write a letter containing their demands.

I looked into the link you gave for the train drivers union (oldest unions), and the chairman of that union stated recently, directly after the court ruled that the "Tarifeinheitsgesetz" was also valid for them, meaning no place anymore on the negotiation table, that the right to strike was still there ! http://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2017-07/claus-weselsky-gesetz-zur-tarifeinheit-gewerkschaften

If I understand that all correctly, your big stick as union (the union organised strike) is still legally there, but the moderate safety valve, the negotiation table has been removed.
Correct ?
 
Well, theoretically a union can still go on strike, but since there is no achievable goal (a vaild contract) to attain it is longstanding precedent in Germany that a strike is not legal and any union calling said strike is liable to pay for any damages to the company subject to the strike - so while not explicitly removing the ability to go on strike they effectively removed that. Now the constitutional court was fine with it as long as the safeguard that the smaller union's interests were somehow met during negotiations was upgraded from being allowed to put said interests in writing prior to the larger union signing the contract to something more than being allowed to pen a letter (though "more" was not defined). Right now the law stands as is though and right now if there are two unions with overlapping clientele, the smaller has no rights whatsoever with the exception of being allowed to make a written proposal.
 
Well, theoretically a union can still go on strike, but since there is no achievable goal (a vaild contract) to attain it is longstanding precedent in Germany that a strike is not legal and any union calling said strike is liable to pay for any damages to the company subject to the strike - so while not explicitly removing the ability to go on strike they effectively removed that. Now the constitutional court was fine with it as long as the safeguard that the smaller union's interests were somehow met during negotiations was upgraded from being allowed to put said interests in writing prior to the larger union signing the contract to something more than being allowed to pen a letter (though "more" was not defined). Right now the law stands as is though and right now if there are two unions with overlapping clientele, the smaller has no rights whatsoever with the exception of being allowed to make a written proposal.

Understand. First you have to exhaust fully the written proposal route, keeping your support base loyal, "attacking" more or less a fellow union, before you build up a case for the constitutional court, whereby of the risk of the damage, you can only do symbolic Spass actions, with small damage, to test out.
In effect killing the specialist small unions.
Nice move of the SPD. Who was it ? Comrade of the Bosses Schroeder ?
 
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Andrea Nahles the next chairwoman of the SPD* and current minister for the department of labor - though the driver behind that originally was Kurt Beck.

*in my opinion - she is bes situated to push Gabriel and Schulz to the sidelines after the seemingly inevitable loss in three weeks.
 
Well, yes, and no. I mean, i suppose we'd have to define "decent" here.
Keep in mind that the AfD getting in (and low NPD vote as an incidental) and the demise of the Pirates has sucked the air out of the "others" category. So 46% isn't what it used to be.
But sure, it's concievable within the range that things could move in three odd weeks.

At http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/ they currently get 49% from 3 out of 6 polling institutes. That is decent enough for me.

Seeing how little negative emotion i can muster vis a vis such a prospect, i suppose we could start to play "least favorite minister".

Oh, tough question! So many to chose from! But I would say Dobrindt

So what's the wildest plausible outcome?

Depends on your limit on plausibility. I would say the wildest remotely plausible outcome would be Schulz becoming Chancellor with a coalition of SPD + Greens + Linke (essentially his only shot at that position). But the polls do not suggest that this will be an option and even if it would, there would be quite some political differences to overcome.

Somewhat more likely would be a coalition of CDU/CSU + FDP + Greens, but just because they likely will have the votes for that.

Technically possible, but in my opinion implausible would be a coalition of CDU + SPD, without the CSU.
 
Oh, tough question! So many to chose from! But I would say Dobrindt
Oh, yes, i had Maas at the tip of my tongue.
But yeah, i'm too good at ignoring Dobrindt's existence, i suppose.
they currently get 49% from 3 out of 6 polling institutes.
Yes, i see. Jebus. When did that happen.
 
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