Hygro
soundcloud.com/hygro/
Yes.
Inflation Woes: Dark Powell Rises
- Thread starter Joij21
- Start date
Joij21
🔥Hail Satan!🔥
Do you have a PHD? Cause that's essentially what you need to have any clout against Jerome Powell. It also needs to be from the "right" Ivy League college to have any credible respect.
Lexicus
Deity
Well, we have learned nothing in the past 4,500 years of history. Still substituting primitive moralizing nonsense for any actual understanding of the system.
Hygro
soundcloud.com/hygro/
I have more economics education than Jerome Powell, who is a lawyer with a poli sci bachelors. I received my economics education from a top 3 worldwide econ department with an interdisciplinary focus on technical monetary macroeconomics, particularly in the context of crises, and the history of economic thought, focused on monetary macroeconomics.
Lexicus
Deity
Jerome Powell doesn't ever get to the Clout District like I do
Joij21
🔥Hail Satan!🔥
Well he's got a JD so...
Hygro
soundcloud.com/hygro/
... what?
Farm Boy
run boy run
- Joined
- Sep 8, 2010
- Messages
- 26,647
Inflation has been jacking the hell out of me. Food(ha!) is getting significantly expensive as is the fuel to go buy it(going back up, diesel stayed high). Medical care is becoming a memory, and lol at fixing the house. Better just sell it to some coastal douche like the sort that keep absentee buying and three year flipping agricultural real estate around here. Maybe we could give them government subsidies for being the most educated and economically viable population or something? Maybe make older cars pay a lot more fuel taxes to force people to patronize Elon Musk?
innonimatu
the resident Cassandra
- Joined
- Dec 4, 2006
- Messages
- 15,061
I think in this both @Hygro and @Joij21 are pointing out relevant things.
The low interest rate and extremely cheap credit policy was a big giveaway to the wealthy. The way it was done, at least. Continuing it, changing nothing, will increase the nominal wealth disparity even more. It's impossible not to notice that "the marked" has has its rules deeply biased towards making those in power wealthier. And all kinds of speculation towards that goal were rewarded. And zero interest rates were an enabled of the most extreme kinds of frauds and long-term-economic-irrational behaviour.
At the same time, the current tight labour market is leading to wage increases and to an improvement of the power position of labourers. Especially the "lower-tier" ones recently. But not everyone's. There will be losers. In aggregate though, they're increasing their power and can come to demand more of the economic pie. I think that there is an ongoing political attempt at creating a recession because of this. To crush labourers back to a more desperate (subservient) position.
While inflation is eating at, and may even gradually erasing, the accumulated debts that predominate in the lower income portion of the population. But that outcome depends on how much the rapacious lenders can huge their rates. In this the devil is in the details. And in this in particular inflation is not necessarily the best way to reduce the debt burden.
The low interest rate and extremely cheap credit policy was a big giveaway to the wealthy. The way it was done, at least. Continuing it, changing nothing, will increase the nominal wealth disparity even more. It's impossible not to notice that "the marked" has has its rules deeply biased towards making those in power wealthier. And all kinds of speculation towards that goal were rewarded. And zero interest rates were an enabled of the most extreme kinds of frauds and long-term-economic-irrational behaviour.
At the same time, the current tight labour market is leading to wage increases and to an improvement of the power position of labourers. Especially the "lower-tier" ones recently. But not everyone's. There will be losers. In aggregate though, they're increasing their power and can come to demand more of the economic pie. I think that there is an ongoing political attempt at creating a recession because of this. To crush labourers back to a more desperate (subservient) position.
While inflation is eating at, and may even gradually erasing, the accumulated debts that predominate in the lower income portion of the population. But that outcome depends on how much the rapacious lenders can huge their rates. In this the devil is in the details. And in this in particular inflation is not necessarily the best way to reduce the debt burden.
Joij21
🔥Hail Satan!🔥
I am going to make a big prophecy on oil right now, and may even solve the inflation crisis because if you decrease the cost of fuel you also decrease the cost of food which is where a lot of the inflation is being felt. Now it may sound counterintuitive, perhaps bizarre, but nevertheless there may be profound underlying motives behind it should the prophecy come true.
You know how OPEC recently announced they were cutting production and now everyone is panicking about how oil will skyrocket? Also know how despite this oil a few days later is now sinking on a "recession" happening, yet despite this, oil producer stocks are still creeping up when they should technically fall if the price is falling? This means a big insider power play is in the works, a crazy power play and one that sounds like a conspiracy theory, even going against what one would think is profitable to producers.
In other words in plain English the American oil companies are actually already ramping up production right now quietly or for some prepping up to do so this winter. But why do this? Wouldn't they want to keep prices high? Didn't Saudi Arabia give them a free gift? And I would say wrong. Because the Saudis are actually not well liked by US producers, see they have always been at the mercy of only being able to profit when the Saudi family says so and they're sick of it. Last time the Saudis manipulated prices they dumped all their oil to make it too cheap which forced many American companies to take less. This time however they want revenge and see it as time to give the Saudis a taste of their own medicine. Before revenge would have been difficult as many Presidents have always favored the Saudi monarchs and gave them special economic assistance this negating the impact any revenge scheme would otherwise have. Now that OPEC has chosen to cut before the midterms Biden is pissed and might revoke such economic privileges, therefore revenge is now impactful.
So what kind of revenge is this? Well US producers will now dump as much oil as they can on to the market in order to drive prices down knowing very well that Arabia has sort of left itself vulnerable by now selling in less volume. This now allows the Americans to take control of the lion's share of the market now that the Saudis have chosen not to produce such a portion. Even if prices go lower it may still be worth it for American producers because it would slowly squeeze the Saudis out of the market as buyers lose faith in their unusually high price, thus preferring to make long term deals and contracts which favor the purchase of American oil instead. Only way the Saudis could avoid this would be to lower prices and increase production themselves or else risk losing their reputation as reliable businessmen who will always ship a requested volume of oil. This would nevertheless be untenable to the Saudis if they don't get American assistance anymore, because before they could increase production at a loss and get free welfare from the US government essentially to carry the burden of selling at a loss, now with an angry Biden cutting off assistance this won't be possible anymore. The oil companies now see this and know if Biden cuts such assistance they can then mass produce and keep prices low enough to hurt the Saudis (but not so low enough to hurt them as Biden will have now castrated Arabia's ability to retaliate).
Once the Arabians get completely anally destroyed by American producers, it could potentially lead to the collapse of the Saudi bloodline and the weakening into ineptitude of OPEC. Because should the Saudis be denied a way of making adequate money they will struggle to buy inflated grain prices due to the ongoing Ukraine war. Rebellion and insurrection will ensue taking out the American companies most sworn rival of competition. While it may not be too profitable to the American companies, taking out global competition is always worth it for future price control, so long as the revenue stream is still enough to cover basic operating expenses.
Now when this clusterfudge of drama ensues it will lower prices at the pump and finally give much needed breathing space for supply chains to recorrect themselves. The Middle East will become unstable as a result when this is all done and Putin will also suffer from the dip (not to mention Fox News' overly bearish predictions will be trashed), but who cares, domestic inflation will be solved and Jerome Powell will pause/pivot. Then a new bull market will begin and we will all be living in paradise!
You know how OPEC recently announced they were cutting production and now everyone is panicking about how oil will skyrocket? Also know how despite this oil a few days later is now sinking on a "recession" happening, yet despite this, oil producer stocks are still creeping up when they should technically fall if the price is falling? This means a big insider power play is in the works, a crazy power play and one that sounds like a conspiracy theory, even going against what one would think is profitable to producers.
In other words in plain English the American oil companies are actually already ramping up production right now quietly or for some prepping up to do so this winter. But why do this? Wouldn't they want to keep prices high? Didn't Saudi Arabia give them a free gift? And I would say wrong. Because the Saudis are actually not well liked by US producers, see they have always been at the mercy of only being able to profit when the Saudi family says so and they're sick of it. Last time the Saudis manipulated prices they dumped all their oil to make it too cheap which forced many American companies to take less. This time however they want revenge and see it as time to give the Saudis a taste of their own medicine. Before revenge would have been difficult as many Presidents have always favored the Saudi monarchs and gave them special economic assistance this negating the impact any revenge scheme would otherwise have. Now that OPEC has chosen to cut before the midterms Biden is pissed and might revoke such economic privileges, therefore revenge is now impactful.
So what kind of revenge is this? Well US producers will now dump as much oil as they can on to the market in order to drive prices down knowing very well that Arabia has sort of left itself vulnerable by now selling in less volume. This now allows the Americans to take control of the lion's share of the market now that the Saudis have chosen not to produce such a portion. Even if prices go lower it may still be worth it for American producers because it would slowly squeeze the Saudis out of the market as buyers lose faith in their unusually high price, thus preferring to make long term deals and contracts which favor the purchase of American oil instead. Only way the Saudis could avoid this would be to lower prices and increase production themselves or else risk losing their reputation as reliable businessmen who will always ship a requested volume of oil. This would nevertheless be untenable to the Saudis if they don't get American assistance anymore, because before they could increase production at a loss and get free welfare from the US government essentially to carry the burden of selling at a loss, now with an angry Biden cutting off assistance this won't be possible anymore. The oil companies now see this and know if Biden cuts such assistance they can then mass produce and keep prices low enough to hurt the Saudis (but not so low enough to hurt them as Biden will have now castrated Arabia's ability to retaliate).
Once the Arabians get completely anally destroyed by American producers, it could potentially lead to the collapse of the Saudi bloodline and the weakening into ineptitude of OPEC. Because should the Saudis be denied a way of making adequate money they will struggle to buy inflated grain prices due to the ongoing Ukraine war. Rebellion and insurrection will ensue taking out the American companies most sworn rival of competition. While it may not be too profitable to the American companies, taking out global competition is always worth it for future price control, so long as the revenue stream is still enough to cover basic operating expenses.
Now when this clusterfudge of drama ensues it will lower prices at the pump and finally give much needed breathing space for supply chains to recorrect themselves. The Middle East will become unstable as a result when this is all done and Putin will also suffer from the dip (not to mention Fox News' overly bearish predictions will be trashed), but who cares, domestic inflation will be solved and Jerome Powell will pause/pivot. Then a new bull market will begin and we will all be living in paradise!
Hygro
soundcloud.com/hygro/
Tax the rich
Hygro
soundcloud.com/hygro/
This is all pretty fantastic so naturally I’m into it
Farm Boy
run boy run
- Joined
- Sep 8, 2010
- Messages
- 26,647
I suppose we're going to have to define "rich," this being politics and all. Given the recent programs, it seems like this has increasingly moved away from status and income, since heads of household that make anything under a quarter million a year qualify as "not so much" and is refocusing more around people who managed to pay obligations and save some, regardless of income. So the easy marks. Seniors, fixed incomes, asset forfeiture, the like. Definitely not currently influential/powerful/compensated. So on one hand, yes, I agree. And a cooling of the economy will open up room for targeted government spending to actually have effect. On the other, I'm seeing at least some of more of the same under that guise. If I heard more about progressive income taxes in particular, I'd be more on board. But those don't seem as popular as they did, after the political realignment started.
Narz
keeping it real
The 'rich' who are managers, small business owners and home owners?
I don't think this reteric will ever gain popular traction as the upper middle class already pay the lion's share of taxes.
Meanwhile Amazon and GE iirc paid zero taxes.
Someone with 3 roommates working 2 crap jobs might envy someone across town w a million dollar home but compared to a Gates or Bezoes who could own 100,000+ such homes.
Such talk is just the super powerful turning the plebs against each other.
Not sure how to say it better tho. Maybe tax the super-elites. Altho the word elite been used so much as to lose meaning (and rather abused by Trump to have no meaning @ all)
Lexicus
Deity
Lol, no
Narz
keeping it real
But that's what most people think when they think of a "rich person". Imagining 100 million dollars let alone billions is beyond most peoples imagination.
There's enough wealth at 'the top' now that taxing from the very top can be done without much real effect on the actual economy. That said, most of that wealth is spent on 'ownership' not 'consumption', so taxing it will free up less consumption than people think (though obviously will allow a reallocation of ownership). Of course, a lot of their consumption is really inefficient and the dollars don't always make sense at scale.
So, if we prevent them from being able to buy yachts, I don't know how many more chocolate bars we can make with those re-tasked resources to increase Aggregate Supply. The increased output might not be able to dent an actual supply shortage. Most of their damage is done in the form of ownership, though. Each year, they use most of their income to ensure that it takes longer for you to own your house. Taxing them so that you can own your house faster might not boost chocolate bar production either. Of course, if the working class was paid with 'faster house ownership', their productivity might increase faster too. Some people work harder to stay alive and stay 'not poor'. Some people work harder in order to be rich. That's a measurement question. Aggregate Supply needs people to be working more productively.
Consumption/production gets retasked. Ownership gets re-assigned. Ownership transfer vs. consumption allocation is kinda why the "Middle Rich" view themselves as being taxed, because it affects their actual consumption. The welfare recipient is eating the hot dog they could have eaten.
"Pays most of the tax" is a mathematical trick. If my wages get suppressed downwards, the "percentage of the tax" that my boss pays goes up (because his profits go up). But regardless, the resulting increase in tax revenue comes from my diminished capacity to consume ... not his.
So, if we prevent them from being able to buy yachts, I don't know how many more chocolate bars we can make with those re-tasked resources to increase Aggregate Supply. The increased output might not be able to dent an actual supply shortage. Most of their damage is done in the form of ownership, though. Each year, they use most of their income to ensure that it takes longer for you to own your house. Taxing them so that you can own your house faster might not boost chocolate bar production either. Of course, if the working class was paid with 'faster house ownership', their productivity might increase faster too. Some people work harder to stay alive and stay 'not poor'. Some people work harder in order to be rich. That's a measurement question. Aggregate Supply needs people to be working more productively.
Consumption/production gets retasked. Ownership gets re-assigned. Ownership transfer vs. consumption allocation is kinda why the "Middle Rich" view themselves as being taxed, because it affects their actual consumption. The welfare recipient is eating the hot dog they could have eaten.
"Pays most of the tax" is a mathematical trick. If my wages get suppressed downwards, the "percentage of the tax" that my boss pays goes up (because his profits go up). But regardless, the resulting increase in tax revenue comes from my diminished capacity to consume ... not his.
Joij21
🔥Hail Satan!🔥
https://www.timesrecordnews.com/sto...ural-gas-production-nears-record/69560897007/
It's already happening, all according to plan. Mwahaha!
innonimatu
the resident Cassandra
- Joined
- Dec 4, 2006
- Messages
- 15,061
Learned that it works?
@Narz you know what the problem is, so many people are tricked into believing they are "the rich" when they are part of the group being sucked on.
How to fix it though? The rich took care to but the media, what passes for journalists dare not bite the owner's hand...
@Joij21 Whatever is said about Saudi Arabia running out of oil, it isn't true. Their oil production cost is much cheaper than the US producers. Their state budget breakeven point for oil price is high, but the production price is low. The producer's cost in the US is much higher. The scenario you described simply cannot happen.
That years ago there was a temporary flood of cheap oil in the US was enabled by producers eating losses during the cheap credit (zero intesrt r<te) era. That era has closed.
Last edited:
innonimatu
the resident Cassandra
- Joined
- Dec 4, 2006
- Messages
- 15,061
And Bernake received the phony Nobel Prize (not the peace one, the other one). So is that "zero interest rates is good" message from the swedes?
It's politics, politics, politics. Political economy. Always has been, always will be.
