Iowa's over, New Hampshire's on

[GoodGame]

Iowa is over: Mitt is ahead
Iowa results:



The second NH debate occured today:
http://www.cnn.com/2012/01/08/politics/new-hampshire-debates/index.html

Santorum, meanwhile, asked why did Romney "bail out" on the Massachusetts people by not running for re-election for governor, a comment that caused Romney to laugh out loud.


"We want someone when the time gets tough, and it will in this election, we want someone who will stand up for conservative principles," Santorum said.

Romney responded that New Hampshire voters can't be fooled about the record of a governor in the state next door, and said only someone with his experience in the business sector outside of Washington politics could defeat Obama.

lol

Santorum, who has come under fire for his right-wing views on social issues, said Sunday that opposing the agenda of gay rights activists on marriage and adoption doesn't mean he disrespects homosexuals.

"Just because you disagree with someone's desire to change the law doesn't mean you hate them or want to discriminate against them," he said. Asked what he would do if his son came out of the closet, Santorum prompted applause by responding: "I would love him as much as I did the second before he said it."

Romney, who is considered too moderate by many conservatives, tried to enhance his right-wing credentials by calling for limits to the "extraordinary political power of government unions," including steps to keep the pay and benefits of government union workers in line with private sector workers.

Santorum was targeted by Paul on Saturday as a "big government person," to which he responded: "I'm a conservative, not a libertarian. I believe in some government," an apparent reference to Paul's calls for eliminating government departments and agencies.

Paul also went after Gingrich on Saturday, calling him a "chicken hawk" who avoided military service by obtaining deferments. Gingrich responded angrily that he wasn't eligible for the draft back then.

Perry made news at the Saturday debate, saying he would support sending troops back into Iraq. U.S. forces completed their pullout from Iraq last month after eight years of war. But Perry predicted that neighboring Iran would enter Iraq without American troops there to defend the country.
...
It was one of the few times the candidate differentiated himself from his rivals, none of whom have suggested sending U.S. forces back into Iraq. Nearly eight out of 10 Americans said they approved of the U.S. pullout from Iraq, according to a CNN/ORC International poll conducted last month.

This debate sounds more like cheap generalizations.

I read the scoresheet as:

Mitt: "It's the economy, stupid", moderate, big money, promises to win by corporate relations---but what strings attached in the end?

Santorum: typical politician with religious values angle, looking more and more like an alt-Perry.

Perry and Gingrich: ???should they resign??? Perry sounds desperate to distinguish himself from the other candidates. I personally feel that they should resign just for failing to get listed at a primary.

Ron Paul is Ron Paul.




Earlier NH polls:



So who will win NH?

My thoughts:
Mitt looks like a house favorite. Ron Paul might actually bury the religious values conservatives, for 2nd place, it seems.




General polling (national) gives confusing results though:


This might reflect not having the debate on their footsteps in all states yet, but it seems like a "Not-Mitt" trend is still strong nationally.

 

[Joecoolyo]

Mitt's going to win NH, no doubt about it.

What's more interesting is to see who's going to come in second, and whether or not we'll see more campaign suspensions after the results.

 

[SG-17]

30,007 Iowans must not know how to read a ballot. I don't want to think the worst for them.

 

[Ajidica]

I forsee Huntsman suspending his campaign. Although NH is more moderate then Iowa, Santorum's surge was really only possible because the religious right had already tried, and then threw away the other religous candidates like a cheap floozy the morning after. Romney is the tried-and-true 'moderate', even if he as been trying to distance himself from that.
Perry seems a bit too clueless to drop, Gingrich's ego is too big, Santorum bouyed by his recent victory, Paul wouldn't suspend his campaign no matter what given he actually appears relavent, and Romney is the front-runner.

 

[NYHunter]

My guess is that Perry is trying to appeal to hawkish South Carolina. And as a result lost any chance I would vote for him if he were to be the nominee.

If the GOP nominates Perry, Gingrich or Santorum, then I am an Obama supporter.

 

[downtown]

Iowa is over: Mitt is ahead

Actually, Mitt is tied with Santorum. Delegates are awarded proportionally.

If we look at the numbers, there really are more republicans who prefer a highly conservative, religious candidate...but they are unable to consolidate their votes around Perry, Gingrich or Santorum, so Mitt can just skate on by. I know all three are opening their attack ad canons right now, but unless somebody draws blood soon, this election is going to be over in a month.

 

[Cutlass]

New Hampshire will have more support for Mittens than any of the others. But then any that don't get blown out of the water then will have more conservative states to fall back on. Mitt is the best prepared for NH, and most in line with the local people.

 

[GoodGame]

Actually, Mitt is tied with Santorum. Delegates are awarded proportionally.

If we look at the numbers, there really are more republicans who prefer a highly conservative, religious candidate...but they are unable to consolidate their votes around Perry, Gingrich or Santorum, so Mitt can just skate on by. I know all three are opening their attack ad canons right now, but unless somebody draws blood soon, this election is going to be over in a month.

Thanks for pointing that all. I had thought it was winner take all.

 

[LegionSteve]

Paul also went after Gingrich on Saturday, calling him a "chicken hawk" who avoided military service by obtaining deferments. Gingrich responded angrily that he wasn't eligible for the draft back then.

The ChickenHawkNewt is a strange beast. Half chicken, half hawk, and half newt.

 

[downtown]

Thanks for pointing that all. I had thought it was winner take all.

It varies from state to state (I believe Florida is winner-take-all, which is why Ron Paul isn't really buying TV time there). There is also a pretty good chance Santorum actually won Iowa, since one of the county chairs may have overcounted Mitt by 30. It's moot though. They both won 11 delegates.

 

[Cutlass]

The ChickenHawkNewt is a strange beast. Half chicken, half hawk, and half newt.

The hawk part is kinda fictional anyways. So he's a chicken-newt.

 

[NickyJ]

This summarizes the state of Santorum's campaign:

 

[Leoreth]

Now, does Santorum even have the money to fund a national presidential campaign?

 

[_random_]

I forsee Huntsman suspending his campaign.

Yeah. Bit of a shame really. If he had a shot anywhere it'd be NH. Suppose I'll definitely be voting for Obama this time around.

 

[Quackers]

_Random_ does that clash against your pro-life views tho? tut-tut..

None of the candidates really appeal to me, but i guess that makes sense considering I'm a Brit

According to WIKI if RP wins he will be 77 at his inaguration. Wow...

 

[Mark1031]

As much as it saddens me it is over. Romney is it as I always thought he would be. Santorum and Gingrich have no $$ or organization. RP is a fringe candidate. Perry apparently has some $$ but his heart isn;t in it and he has made such a fool of himself in the debates he is going nowhere. Romney wins NH and probably SC with the other clowns splitting the vote. Fla goes for Romney big and then it is over with RP staying in accumulating small numbers of delegates through proportionality.

 

[Save_Ferris]

I forsee Huntsman suspending his campaign.

Yes, although it is possible that he could be Romney's VP.

 

[downtown]

Yes, although it is possible that he could be Romney's VP.

No it isn't. Huntsman would cause the conservative branch to revolt, and it's not like Romney needs help getting Mormons to vote for him. Mitt's VP is going to be MORE conservative than him.

 

[GoodGame]

_Random_ does that clash against your pro-life views tho? tut-tut..

None of the candidates really appeal to me, but i guess that makes sense considering I'm a Brit

I think it's pretty much that the GOP is running an anti-Obama campaign with a "fix the economy" theme, and there's a thousand (er half a dozen) flavors of it.
Most of them don't appeal to me either, but I'm no longer Repub.

I'll assume for now that it'll likely be either:

overt Religious conservative versus Obama, or Mitt vs. Obama, at which case for me it is:

(Mitt ? Obama) > religious conservative

Mitt is about as appealing as the GOP can get for me, but only if he could spin the economy the best.

 

[Ice_Tyrant]

I dreamed of Huntsman, but I know it won't happen. I've just assumed that he's going to drop out after he fails in New Hampshire.

I'm not sure who I will go far. I could see myself throwing my vote away to some third party candidate. Romney is going to win Kentucky anyway though, so whatever I guess. Obama lost me after signing the NDAA. Though it seems like he'll be the best choice come November...