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Iowa's over, New Hampshire's on

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by GoodGame, Jan 9, 2012.

  1. GoodGame

    GoodGame Red, White, & Blue, baby!

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    Iowa is over: Mitt is ahead
    Iowa results:



    The second NH debate occured today:
    http://www.cnn.com/2012/01/08/politics/new-hampshire-debates/index.html

    lol


    This debate sounds more like cheap generalizations.

    I read the scoresheet as:

    Mitt: "It's the economy, stupid", moderate, big money, promises to win by corporate relations---but what strings attached in the end?

    Santorum: typical politician with religious values angle, looking more and more like an alt-Perry.

    Perry and Gingrich: ???should they resign??? Perry sounds desperate to distinguish himself from the other candidates. I personally feel that they should resign just for failing to get listed at a primary.

    Ron Paul is Ron Paul.




    Earlier NH polls:



    So who will win NH?


    My thoughts:
    Mitt looks like a house favorite. Ron Paul might actually bury the religious values conservatives, for 2nd place, it seems.




    General polling (national) gives confusing results though:


    This might reflect not having the debate on their footsteps in all states yet, but it seems like a "Not-Mitt" trend is still strong nationally.
     
  2. Joecoolyo

    Joecoolyo 99% Lightspeed

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    Mitt's going to win NH, no doubt about it.

    What's more interesting is to see who's going to come in second, and whether or not we'll see more campaign suspensions after the results.
     
  3. SG-17

    SG-17 Deity

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    30,007 Iowans must not know how to read a ballot. I don't want to think the worst for them.
     
  4. Ajidica

    Ajidica High Quality Person

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    I forsee Huntsman suspending his campaign. Although NH is more moderate then Iowa, Santorum's surge was really only possible because the religious right had already tried, and then threw away the other religous candidates like a cheap floozy the morning after. Romney is the tried-and-true 'moderate', even if he as been trying to distance himself from that.
    Perry seems a bit too clueless to drop, Gingrich's ego is too big, Santorum bouyed by his recent victory, Paul wouldn't suspend his campaign no matter what given he actually appears relavent, and Romney is the front-runner.
     
  5. NYHunter

    NYHunter King

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    My guess is that Perry is trying to appeal to hawkish South Carolina. And as a result lost any chance I would vote for him if he were to be the nominee.

    If the GOP nominates Perry, Gingrich or Santorum, then I am an Obama supporter.
     
  6. downtown

    downtown Crafternoon Delight

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    Actually, Mitt is tied with Santorum. Delegates are awarded proportionally.

    If we look at the numbers, there really are more republicans who prefer a highly conservative, religious candidate...but they are unable to consolidate their votes around Perry, Gingrich or Santorum, so Mitt can just skate on by. I know all three are opening their attack ad canons right now, but unless somebody draws blood soon, this election is going to be over in a month.
     
  7. Cutlass

    Cutlass The Man Who Wasn't There.

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    New Hampshire will have more support for Mittens than any of the others. But then any that don't get blown out of the water then will have more conservative states to fall back on. Mitt is the best prepared for NH, and most in line with the local people.
     
  8. GoodGame

    GoodGame Red, White, & Blue, baby!

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    Thanks for pointing that all. I had thought it was winner take all.
     
  9. LegionSteve

    LegionSteve Motörhead

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    The ChickenHawkNewt is a strange beast. Half chicken, half hawk, and half newt.
     
  10. downtown

    downtown Crafternoon Delight

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    It varies from state to state (I believe Florida is winner-take-all, which is why Ron Paul isn't really buying TV time there). There is also a pretty good chance Santorum actually won Iowa, since one of the county chairs may have overcounted Mitt by 30. It's moot though. They both won 11 delegates.
     
  11. Cutlass

    Cutlass The Man Who Wasn't There.

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    The hawk part is kinda fictional anyways. So he's a chicken-newt. :mischief:
     
  12. NickyJ

    NickyJ Retired Narrator

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    This summarizes the state of Santorum's campaign:

     
  13. Leoreth

    Leoreth Prince of Blood Moderator

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    Now, does Santorum even have the money to fund a national presidential campaign?
     
  14. _random_

    _random_ Jewel Runner

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    Yeah. Bit of a shame really. If he had a shot anywhere it'd be NH. Suppose I'll definitely be voting for Obama this time around.
     
  15. Quackers

    Quackers The Frog

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    _Random_ does that clash against your pro-life views tho? tut-tut..

    None of the candidates really appeal to me, but i guess that makes sense considering I'm a Brit :p

    According to WIKI if RP wins he will be 77 at his inaguration. Wow...
     
  16. Mark1031

    Mark1031 Deity

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    As much as it saddens me it is over. Romney is it as I always thought he would be. Santorum and Gingrich have no $$ or organization. RP is a fringe candidate. Perry apparently has some $$ but his heart isn;t in it and he has made such a fool of himself in the debates he is going nowhere. Romney wins NH and probably SC with the other clowns splitting the vote. Fla goes for Romney big and then it is over with RP staying in accumulating small numbers of delegates through proportionality.
     
  17. Save_Ferris

    Save_Ferris Admiring Myself

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    Yes, although it is possible that he could be Romney's VP.
     
  18. downtown

    downtown Crafternoon Delight

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    No it isn't. Huntsman would cause the conservative branch to revolt, and it's not like Romney needs help getting Mormons to vote for him. Mitt's VP is going to be MORE conservative than him.
     
  19. GoodGame

    GoodGame Red, White, & Blue, baby!

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    I think it's pretty much that the GOP is running an anti-Obama campaign with a "fix the economy" theme, and there's a thousand (er half a dozen) flavors of it.
    Most of them don't appeal to me either, but I'm no longer Repub.

    I'll assume for now that it'll likely be either:

    overt Religious conservative versus Obama, or Mitt vs. Obama, at which case for me it is:

    (Mitt ? Obama) > religious conservative

    Mitt is about as appealing as the GOP can get for me, but only if he could spin the economy the best.
     
  20. Ice_Tyrant

    Ice_Tyrant Prince

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    I dreamed of Huntsman, but I know it won't happen. I've just assumed that he's going to drop out after he fails in New Hampshire.

    I'm not sure who I will go far. I could see myself throwing my vote away to some third party candidate. Romney is going to win Kentucky anyway though, so whatever I guess. Obama lost me after signing the NDAA. Though it seems like he'll be the best choice come November...
     

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