Iran is One Year away from the bomb!

[Che Guava]

...if they're telling the truth....

Iran 'reaches key nuclear goal'

Iran has met a key target for its nuclear programme and now has 3,000 centrifuges enriching uranium, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has said.

Mr Ahmadinejad said Iran would continue its drive in spite of UN sanctions aimed at forcing a suspension.

Centrifuges enrich uranium to the level required for a power station but also to higher levels for a nuclear bomb.

The West has accused Iran of seeking to develop nuclear weapons - a charge Iran has strongly denied.

"[The world powers] were thinking that with each resolution the Iranian nation would retreat. But after each resolution the Iranian nation presented another nuclear achievement."

The installation of 3,000 centrifuges is seen by Iran as a key medium-term goal - which it had hoped to reach by March this year - for its nuclear programme.

There has been no independent verification of Iran's claim.

The UN has already imposed two sets of sanctions and the US is leading the call for a third set if Iran's uranium enrichment does not halt.

Only last week the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said it had agreed a plan with Iran to clear up key questions about its past nuclear activities, calling it a "significant step forward".

The agency admitted Iran's enrichment programme was continuing but said it was at a slower pace than before.

However, a number of Western diplomats have criticised the agency's plan, accusing Iran of trying to delay the imposition of further UN sanctions while increasing its nuclear capabilities.

The BBC's Jon Leyne in Tehran says on the one hand Iran seems to be talking to resolve the issues but on the other President Ahmadinejad is saying Tehran has now mastered uranium enrichment and the issue should be set aside.

The US and UN are not going to accept that, our correspondent says.

Experts say Iran could have enough material for a bomb within a year if 3,000 centrifuges could operate successfully and non-stop.

link

Looks like the islamic republic may just pull it off...for whatever reason it wants enriched uranium...any comments or concerns?

 

[Mr. Dictator]

armchair warriors, assemble!

 

[stormbind]

Does having enough material equate to building a working bomb?

 

[Virote_Considon]

Seeing this thread reminds me of a dream last night, where the UK declared war on Iran and Russia (and I think they canceled any peace treaties with China, but kept to a cease fire). I remember seeing a few skirmishes between Iranian "Alpine Troopers" and British soldiers, but that was about it I think I've been playing too much civ...

Anyway, I'm very concerned by this. The India/Pakistan part of that region is already pretty dangerous, with Pakistan under the constant threat of an extremist uprising, so I can't imagine what would happen to the region if Iran, who already has an extremist government, and who see themselves as the main power in their little part of Asia, would also have the bomb. The main worry being that Iran would start to support Pakistani extremists, and therefore could be some kind of "united front" against the rest of the world, with people very high up in their respective governments that they could actually fire those nukes...

 

[luiz]

I think we should accept that Iran is going to have nuclear weapons. It's not good, but there isn't much anyone can do right now.

 

[Kozmos]

One bomb a year is pretty damn slow.

 

[Winner]

Does having enough material equate to building a working bomb?

No, but assembling it is much, much easier than producing enough fissile material. It means the main obstacle has been overcome.

 

[Che Guava]

I think we should accept that Iran is going to have nuclear weapons. It's not good, but there isn't much anyone can do right now.

Agreed. It's time to move on and start focusing on some other aspects of Iran. For eg, thier human rights record....

One bomb a year is pretty damn slow.

True, especially when you consider that the entire operation would have to be dedicated to producing uranium fits for weapons, without interruption, for the entire year. And if Iran is really serious about using even some of thier capabilities for nuclear power, it would take even longer.

 

[Amin001]

"Agreed. It's time to move on and start focusing on some other aspects of Iran. For eg, thier human rights record...."

Go look at Chinas human rights record, guess we have to go and liberate the Chinese people from making our cheap Walmart goods.


Looks like those brown people are trying to become a first world country, gotta bomb them because that is not allowed.

 

[Virote_Considon]

The difference is, we can successfully bomb Iraq, And maybe Iran, but we can't bomb China.

 

[Ansar]

It'd be pretty funny if we suddenly began to see Nuclear Power Plants.

 

[skadistic]

I wonder what the UN will do to Iran when they get the bomb, in violation of the Nuke non-proliferation pact and a stream of other resolutions, besides pass a resolution to pass a resolution pass a resolution to pass a resolution pass a resolution to pass a resolution pass a resolution to pass a resolution to tall about it.

 

[Godwynn]

I wonder what the UN will do to Iran when they get the bomb, in violation of the Nuke non-proliferation pact and a stream of other resolutions, besides pass a resolution to pass a resolution pass a resolution to pass a resolution pass a resolution to pass a resolution pass a resolution to pass a resolution to tall about it.

I don't think a resolution can pass if it is vetoed by a permanent member of the security council, which includes Russia. (?)

They won't even get as far as you described.

 

[Leonel]

armchair warriors, assemble!

leonel reporting for duty, SAH!

 

[skadistic]

I don't think a resolution can pass if it is vetoed by a permanent member of the security council, which includes Russia. (?)

They won't even get as far as you described.

Non-sense only America ever use its veto to stop resolutions. Thats why the UN has never passed a resolution against the US because the US will just veto!!!!!!

 

[Tannertu]

Iran Is Judged 10 Years From Nuclear Bomb
U.S. Intelligence Review Contrasts With Administration Statements

By Dafna Linzer
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, August 2, 2005; Page A01

A major U.S. intelligence review has projected that Iran is about a decade away from manufacturing the key ingredient for a nuclear weapon, roughly doubling the previous estimate of five years, according to government sources with firsthand knowledge of the new analysis.

The carefully hedged assessments, which represent consensus among U.S. intelligence agencies, contrast with forceful public statements by the White House. Administration officials have asserted, but have not offered proof, that Tehran is moving determinedly toward a nuclear arsenal.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/08/01/AR2005080101453.html

In 1995 the NIE assessment was 5 years. In 2001 the assessment was 5 years. For a state hell bent on developing WMD's, they're sure taking their time about it! The latest assessment is based on Iran "throwing all caution to the wind", ie leaving the NPT and openly pursuing nuclear weapons.

Any civil nuclear power program requiring enriched uranium has the latency for military use, but this does not in itself imply intention to do so (except in the eye of the beholder). The main reason for believing Iran wants nukes seems to be that they have every reason to do so. As Robert Gates said in at his inauguration hearing:

“While they [the Iranians] are certainly pressing, in my opinion, for a nuclear capability, I think they would see it in the first instance as a deterrent. They are surrounded by powers with nuclear weapons-Pakistan to their east, the Russians to the north, the Israelis to the west, and us in the Persian Gulf."

Most commentators (apart from the Israeli military establishment and their US allies) seem to agree that Iranian intentions are an unknown. The decision to develop nukes would be taken by the Supreme Leader (not the president).

The idea that Iran would nuke Israel is completely ludicrous. Israel has nuclear weapons and lots of them. Are we really supposed to believe the mullahs are so mad and irresponsible to launch a suicidal nuclear war?

If Iran is as good as its word, then they could be given other options to address their energy needs. Not all nuclear reactors require enriched uranium. If they must have nuclear power, give them these. My preferred solution would be renewables - give them solar, wind etc generation technology. It may be expensive, but compared to the cost of another war?

 

[Tannertu]

Agreed. It's time to move on and start focusing on some other aspects of Iran. For eg, thier human rights record....

Isn't it time to start focusing on the wars we already engaged in before trying to start another one!

 

[sonorakitch]

Ha!

I'm not too worried...I am sure Israel will intervene at just the right moment and send Iran back another 10 years or so.

I just wonder what is more dangerous for the rest of us: Iran having the bomb or Israel eliminating it?

~Chris

 

[Irish Caesar]

I can't honestly say I'm worried; Iran is within its rights as an NPT member to enrich uranium for power production.

 

[JohnRM]

Well, it doesn't seem as though anyone is going to stop them, so it will happen eventually, whether that is one year from now or three years from now. I await the fallout from all of this (no pun intended).