Iraq protests

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Socrates99, Jan 2, 2020.

  1. luiz

    luiz Trendy Revolutionary

    Joined:
    Nov 19, 2001
    Messages:
    20,544
    Exactly. If there is a full scale war one day it will be because the US chose it. The truth is the US can get away with a whole lot because it's so much more powerful than everyone else. They killed Kadafi's family and there was no war as a result. The last country that chose to start a war with the US was probably Japan. Iran won't go to war with the world's sole superpower becuase of some dead general.

    That said, they can and probably will retaliate in other ways. Hezbollah looks like the obvious vessel of choice considering their vast capabilities and strategic location.
     
    El_Machinae likes this.
  2. Snerk

    Snerk Smeghead

    Joined:
    Jan 16, 2006
    Messages:
    7,959
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Norway. You'll never leave
    It becomes more and more obvious that with Trump in the white house the only hope for self preservation for Teheran is to obtain nuclear weapons as quickly as possible.
     
  3. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Moderator Moderator

    Joined:
    Feb 24, 2017
    Messages:
    8,725
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Amsterdam
    If Iran feels provoked enough to do that, Trump will be happy with it, because that will help to isolate Iran from nations who seek more peacefull solutions for the tensions with Iran.
     
  4. Snerk

    Snerk Smeghead

    Joined:
    Jan 16, 2006
    Messages:
    7,959
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Norway. You'll never leave
    It's not a matter of provokation, it's a matter of survival. If top ranking generals can be assassinated by US drones in neighbouring states then nobody is safe from Iran's POV. Obtaining nuclear weapons has shown to be the best way to avoid military intervention from USA. North Korea defied the economical sanctions and pursued it's atomic program and now the regime sits fairly safe. Iraq and Libya abandoned it's WMD programs in hopes of avoiding US interventions and look where that brought them. The regime in Teheran has no other option at this point.
     
  5. Fippy

    Fippy Mycro Junkie Queen

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2013
    Messages:
    12,591
    Gender:
    Female
    Mixed on this, killing a terror general isn't wrong but was there no better way to do so than an air strike?
    While certainly no fan of Trump, those countries cannot be led by such people (open or underground), and expect peaceful solutions.
    I question that things would have been less dangerous with him alive long-term, and if they think getting away with everything is possible.
    (but it's all just my distant opinion)
     
  6. Mouthwash

    Mouthwash Escaped Lunatic

    Joined:
    Sep 26, 2011
    Messages:
    9,368
    Location:
    Hiding
    Here's a good criticism of this move that isn't based on the usual Trump hysterics.
     
  7. uppi

    uppi Deity

    Joined:
    Feb 2, 2007
    Messages:
    5,395
    It is a fine balance, though. If they go about it too openly, they might give the hawks in the USA enough material to start a war. A war which Iran cannot win (the winner will likely be China).
     
    hobbsyoyo likes this.
  8. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Moderator Moderator

    Joined:
    Feb 24, 2017
    Messages:
    8,725
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Amsterdam
    Yes... in the sense that this is the pivotal choice for Iran:
    A. will it continue the strategy of the killed general: small needle pricks combined with gathering support in the Middle-East while not upsetting the EU (Japan, others)
    B. will it choose the North Korean route, with only Russia support (of the main blocs), and little access for its economy for global trading: the North Korean low economy route.

    Ad A
    Do mind BTW that this killed general was a friend of the US after 9/11, when he was just appointed as chief of the Qud Brigade of the Revolutionary Guard, and he helped driving out the Taliban out of Afghanistan. The Qud Brigade the "foreign affairs" section of the Revolutionary Guard.
    When President Bush called Iran the axis of evil he felt betrayed and acknowledging that Iran could never win a conflict with the US at high escalation level, he designed the Iran strategy against the US with full control on diplomatic and military needle prick actions since 2002.
    Iran appointed as replacement immediately as general someone from that same Qud Brigade. Signalling that Iran intends to continue its focus on foreign strategy. But whether this new general will be as smart as Soleimani IDK. And whether this new general believes in nuclear IDK.

    Ad B
    Iran is not a backward farmer nation like North Korea where Chinese tourists can see with some nostalgia how much China improved in prosperity since the 60ies, since the 80ies.
    Iran has many well educated young people. Is without this conflict the knowledge powerhouse of the Middle-East leaving that other populous country Turkey far behind in level. Egypt nowhere in that respect.
     
    Last edited: Jan 3, 2020
  9. plarq

    plarq Crazy forever

    Joined:
    May 16, 2004
    Messages:
    6,164
    Location:
    None of the above
    The hawks need interest, and global environment for the thirst of war.
     
  10. luiz

    luiz Trendy Revolutionary

    Joined:
    Nov 19, 2001
    Messages:
    20,544
    Iran is probably at the most isolated it's ever been, though. I mean, the core Arab states (Egypt, KSA and UAE) now hate them so much they're covertly collaborating with Israel on security matters, against Iran-backed proxies.
     
  11. Snerk

    Snerk Smeghead

    Joined:
    Jan 16, 2006
    Messages:
    7,959
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Norway. You'll never leave
    I doubt the US would go to war over an Iranian nuclear program. Strikes and other military operations perhaps, but not a full on occupation and a regime change. It would be very lengthy and the costs would be astronomical. Who has the stomach for that in Washington these days?
    You're right the outcome is still unclear. It always is in the middle east. But this will certainly push the Iranian regime further into the corner with nuclear weaponry as a tempting resort. There are hawks in Teheran too who will seek to profit from this in terms of a more confrontational line. The assassination of Soleimani doesn't leave Teheran with any possibilities to save face. Iran can not rebut with anything meaningful in this regard, needle pricks will not do. This clear and obvious asymmetry might well be a game changer. Their atomic program is their only wild card here. Meanwhile EU is struggling real hard with finding ways around the embargo.
     
  12. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Moderator Moderator

    Joined:
    Feb 24, 2017
    Messages:
    8,725
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Amsterdam
    isolated... yes
    from the outside (US) pressure and from domestic religious conservative pressure.
    And no sovereign nation likes it when another nation is meddling in its internal domestic affairs. Any sitting government in the Middle East has enough instability issues already. Irans' meddling can be missed like toothache.
    For now the future of the younger generations is screwed.

    Yes
    And those hawks will aim at any irreversible action possible.
     
  13. hobbsyoyo

    hobbsyoyo Deity

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2012
    Messages:
    26,576
    Up until yesterday I would have said the US never would have publicly assassinated a top military leader of another country while inside a third allied country. I don't know what to think anymore.
     
    Last edited: Jan 3, 2020
  14. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Moderator Moderator

    Joined:
    Feb 24, 2017
    Messages:
    8,725
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Amsterdam
    Is Trump the US ???

    Trump is roughing up all kinds of traditions
    Traditions that evoluated over time to lessen the likelyhood of avoidable risks
    If he gets re-elected it will get worse
     
  15. hobbsyoyo

    hobbsyoyo Deity

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2012
    Messages:
    26,576
    In areas of foreign policy and the military, yes, he effectively is the US. It does not help that the US Congress has a long-established trend of tearing down all checks and balances on the executive to the point where he is effectively unstoppable in many areas. We recently saw Trump declare a fake emergency as a pretext to misappropriate funds and not even the courts stopped him.

    And as you say, he is breaking all manner of precedents and setting new ones that are very dangerous.
     
  16. Socrates99

    Socrates99 Bottoms up!

    Joined:
    Oct 11, 2012
    Messages:
    2,408
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Michigan
    It's the timing and Pompeo's involvement that makes me skeptical. Pompeo's a former CIA neocon who isn't above using false flags. How exactly was Iran involved in the Iraqi protest? Has that been answered? Somebody says they were and we just go straight to taking it as fact?

    We know the Trump administration has factions that struggle against each other for their own ends. The fact that this is happening so close to the holidays makes me wonder if the more hawkish faction is taking advantage of other factions being off on holiday to carry out a false flag and make war inevitable before the less hawkish people can talk our dopish buffoon POTUS out of doing something stupid.
     
  17. El_Machinae

    El_Machinae Colour vision since 2018 Retired Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 24, 2005
    Messages:
    47,082
    Location:
    Pale Blue Dot youtube=wupToqz1e2g
    This was the main risk of having a serial liar as commander in chief. You never know what's necessary
     
    Thorvald of Lym and Socrates99 like this.
  18. EnglishEdward

    EnglishEdward Deity

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2008
    Messages:
    7,942
    Location:
    England
    I am trying to work out why the Iranian leadership cannot try to do both A and B.
     
  19. Gori the Grey

    Gori the Grey The Poster

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2009
    Messages:
    7,894
    But one interesting line of speculation I've run into in the wake of the assassination is whether Iran might target Trump properties in retaliation. Then what?
     
    Last edited: Jan 3, 2020
    Hygro and hobbsyoyo like this.
  20. hobbsyoyo

    hobbsyoyo Deity

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2012
    Messages:
    26,576
    Then we spend millions in taxpayer dollars reimbursing him and beefing up security at his properties.


    We went straight from accepting the narrative that they instigating riots to assassinations. That's one hell of a jump. And I do not recall ever reading 'the orders came directly from the President' in these sorts of strikes before which I felt was odd and highly (sus). I agree that this at least looks like the hawks in the White House doing their own thing without legal cover or Presidential backing.
     
    Last edited: Jan 3, 2020
    Thorvald of Lym likes this.

Share This Page