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Iraq protests

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Socrates99, Jan 2, 2020.

  1. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    oh yes it will
    Those groups do not want to come over as vassals... those countries they are active in want their own sovereignty even if that is their own mess

    Iran is weakening in position all the time

    What I see as most important for "us" is to get during that weakening route a safe landing scenario for a future Iran without stupid Iranian hawks causing warlike situations

    It's a bit like playing chess
    As soon as you have enough of an advantage to win... you start aiming at simplifying the situation to lessen the risks that some unexpected complication arises that could still make you lose
    and the other way around: as soon as you are getting in a losing situation you start making the situation more complex including sacrifices that even lessen your general position but increase the opportunities to turn the situation around.
     
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  2. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    Agree

    Respect
     
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  3. Cheetah

    Cheetah Deity

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    That seems rather pointless then. Especially with this administration. A normal administration could probably be shamed into behaving better this bill passing Congress, but Trump's? In any case, Trump can veto it if he chooses to, I understand?

    Trump is really low on diplomatic reputation anyway, and don't really care much. As strong and resourceful as the US is, there's really no way to avoid it no matter what they do, so they've kinda removed themselves from the reputational measurement anyway. Furthermore, the next president will probably regain it immediately on the basis of not being Trump...

    2. This is mostly like the first point. The hardliners in Iran doesn't need any more reasons to hate on the US, and normal Iranians are generally able to differentiate between the American people, the US state, and Trump. For that matter, lots of people all over the Middle East are happy that Trump killed Soleimani. Not happy enough to forgive or like Trump for all his other policies, but still worth noting.

    3. 500,000 Syrians, tens of thousands of Iraqis, and thousands of Iranians have died over the last decade. I'm not sure that simply hoping reformers will succeed is an ethical strategy to hold to...

    4. So to clear this one up: The Iraqi parliament, without it's Sunni or Kurdish members, voted to ask the Iranian-backed caretaker PM (he had recently been forced to resign because of the Iraqi protesters, but no new non-bad candidate has been found) to consider taking Iraq out of the coalition against ISIL. None of that involved the Forces-treaty from 2008 that legally underpins the US forces staying in Iraq. Iraq could of course in theory throw out the US troops, but (a) that's not something anyone has the authority or will to actually do yet, (b) it would be very unpopular in the Iraqi parliament and people, especially after Trump threatened sanctions if thrown out. It's trivial to note that the Iranian-backed caretaker PM has only railed against the US to get out after killing Soleimani, but hasn't said anything about Iranian agents and forces after Iran bombed his country with dozens of missiles.

    All in all, I'm not too fond of your extension of the list. The loss of reputation could presumably hurt the US somewhat, but with Trump...? And waiting for reformers or listening to Iranian agents in Iraq isn't very useful.

    Yes, those were negative points. I'd rather not see people die.

    But choxorn wasn't completely incorrect: I'm not convinced that anyone were actually forced to be at those pro-Soleimani marches, but there is at least quite a bit of group pressure for students and state-employees to be there. I would find it an additional tragedy if any of those who died there didn't even want to be there.

    Edit:
    Added «but» to a sentence.

    So killing Soleimani was good, then.

    I think it's safe to say that any direct attack from Iran is over by now. They've even stood down their militias in what I can only think is a fear of what Trump could have done next...

    It should be said, however, that it is still very likely that Iran will look for a way to attack soft American/Western/Jewish targets throughout the next months or years, however. The details of those events might require all kinds of options and responses.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jan 9, 2020
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  4. Berzerker

    Berzerker Deity

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    dont matter if they were at the funeral voluntarily, they didn't go to be trampled to death
     
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  5. bernie14

    bernie14 Filter Manipulator

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    That depends on how you define "forced". Sheeple that live in authoritarian regimes are expected and conditioned to behave in a certain manner
     
  6. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    IDK
    That it sofar worked out does not mean it was optimal or even good enough.

    A shot accross the bow could have worked as well
    When that rebel delegation, with Iraqi fighting for the interests of Iran, waiting at the airport (in Iraq !) for the arrival of Suleimani by airplane would have been attacked and killed when arriving at the parking place... would Suleimani have continued to travel or just returned to Iran ?

    And if Suleimani would have continued his travel and then would have been killed when leaving the airport by car... disregarding that clear warning... that's imo very different in terms of escalation

    With a shot accross the bow, with or without that second shot... I think that the message would in both cases be clear enough to Iran and the world
    and less divisive within the US politics and traditional US allies.... the audience.

    If you can't win on KO and you can win on points... why hit beneath the belt ?

    Anyway
    yes
    there is a lot to do there to get Iranian violence contained.
    Especially now and the coming months.
     
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  7. Cheetah

    Cheetah Deity

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    I'm not sure if I'm following your thoughts completely. But it did remind me of another saying:

    «A dictatorship is like a snake. If you step on its tail, it will bite you. You have to hit it on the head.»

    Of course, Soleimani wasn't a lone dictator, but he was the leading mind behind Iran's militaristic imperialism. I find killing him to be a much better idea than to scare him, or killing some of the people serving on his orders.
     
  8. uppi

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    Trump might not care, but the way he is wrecking what is left of the reputation of the USA will be a strategic disadvantage in the future either way. The next president can recover some of that, but not all of that. Some of the damage will stay for the future.

    First, it is not fair to blame the Iranians for all those deaths. There were plenty of other powers (including the USA) involved as well. Second, what is your endgame here? Killing an important Iranian here and there is only going to stabilize the current regime. And even if you kill a million people to remove it, you still need Iranians that can ensure peace afterwards. If you discredit those who could potentially do that at every turn, they won't have a chance to do that.

    It is easy too question the legitimacy of the current Iraqi government, but blatantly ignoring their sovereignty is not going to get you a better one. All you do is strengthening the grip Iran has on Iraq.

    Killing people is not very useful, either.
     
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  9. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    One man and one snake
    yes


    But here you are not alone, you need the audiences on your side or the audiences doing the things you want
    The audiences are groups in Iran, in other ME countries, in US politics and people, in NATO, etc.... all the stakeholders.
    You want to eliminate one by one every free course of direction of Iran regarding thir illegal interference in other countries, until they move in the direction you want because all other options are gone.
    Time consuming. Needing determination and a steady hand
    And you will need lots of allies for that
     
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  10. r16

    r16 not deity

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    oh , another call on the American Rightwinger . By now , you will have heard off the attack would be a ground attack and your Military and support arranged with their Iranian counterparts to be a missile thing , with time given to evacuate and the letter sent to Iraqis were warning the helicopter movements and the like were "defensive" , moving stuff to other locations . Yet still the airliner crash . You will be right to claim this is an Obama invention , crashing one after each "enemy" success on the battlefield . But it was never this fast , apart from the thing that "I want that one" , index finger landing right on the Ukranian , because it's fault of Zelensky , because he is yet to start the investigation for all the stuff it has caused for the White House .


    ı fully support the Iranian decision of not allowing Boeing in , because well , they couldn't do it . The Ukranian investigation team already deploys with Tor-1 on auto mode did it idea , because it's , well , really possible for Iranian dissident to live in the capital city of Tahran , drive 10 kilometers to the crash site and be expert enough to identify missile pieces as distinct from airliner debris . You will also see the footage . Well , anyone will think it's a local guy , excited and he heard noise , saw a light , tracked it with the cell phone and recorded it all and also he was a dissident of sorts . CIA has great experience of missile recordings and stuff , since they had to audit Stinger expenditure and the first engagement with the claimed 3 shootdowns do not show impacts and it took satellite imagery to make the claims official . Even if one was to be fired in your town and you were warned , ı would expect your cellphone trying to track the missile too much , fail to observe the moment changeover and would make a mess of the all critical impact point . Oh , it's a security cam ! Sure , why not , it watches the rooftop of some building and not the street , because Batman lives in Iran and makes his living by thievery , swooping down from the skies .

    and the Iranians kinda know they are unfair to blame the pilots of the Boeing , this being already denied by the Ukranian team (because they have families, too) that there were radio contact between the hit and the crash . No Iranian emergency call clearing them to the runway immediately . And the likes of Stingers are kinda weak to knock out both engines of a civil airliner with precision impact on one . Even the best pilots in Iran , and mind am not saying of , because Russians are time to time exercising down there and they are White to Iranian Brown because this post is intented for you American Rightwinger , stereotyped as a firm believer in how people of Colour can't and still despite the Ukranians are also White , but ı would suggest the Ukranian team to notice , for their own conciousness and stuff and whatever that there is nothing that one can do about tailplane locked aways , nosedive crash scenario . Happens different on Airbuses , also true .
     
  11. rah

    rah Deity Supporter

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    Didn't they decide to allow Boeing and the West into the investigation? Thought I heard that on the news this morning.
     
  12. hobbsyoyo

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    They allowed the US and Canada's aviation administrations to participate. Canada accepted, the US said they'd look at the issue and decide their level of involvement. (that is what was reported last night, haven't seen updates yet this morning)
     
  13. rah

    rah Deity Supporter

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  14. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    Perhaps different factions in Iran have differing opinions on what might have happened and how to proceed to maximise their position in that internal rivalry.

    in case of the airplane shot down
    If the hawks of the military have marked their position with "we did not shoot" while they did it, this is an opportunity for the moderate faction.
    Maximising that opportunity is not necessarily helped by fast actions changing the story as of now in public.
    Timing how and when the black box info comes into play important.
     
  15. hobbsyoyo

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    The NYT posted some grizzly images of the crash site last night including the shrapnel-riddled wreckage and blood splatters on walls where people were splashed against it. Allegedly, Iran has been acting to cover up aspects of the crash, including arresting those that share photos with journalists and destroying evidence.
     
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  16. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    I also heard that the debris site has been buldozered.
     
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  17. hobbsyoyo

    hobbsyoyo Deity

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    I don't think anyone in the Iranian government believes it was anything but a shoot down by Iran at this point. They will not admit it publicly until there is overwhelming international concensus and even then they'll probably have a different narrative they share with their internal audience. But it's just not credible to think anyone but Iran shot it down at this point.

    I read that too but I couldn't find any reliable sources for it so I didn't mention it.
     
  18. hobbsyoyo

    hobbsyoyo Deity

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    The House passed a war powers resolution last night.

    Apparently, this resolution does not require signing by the President but the Senate still has to vote on it.
     
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  19. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    yes
    we have to wait for satellite-drone pictures

    if you want to land a fish you must first make sure you got it really hooked.
    that is happening now
    They bite deeper and deeper in their (likely) lie

    and then you get the internal rivalry process in Iran
    Is always the same in such fights
    You start looking for, archiving and using dirt when the appropiate time is there
    Iranian people are not stupid... but they do prefer to sort out their own mess.. preferrably with face saving for the nation as a whole as they (those factions) see their nation... and at the same time winning from the other faction.
    If western approach leaves no room for any kind of face saving you only push those factions together.
     
  20. El_Machinae

    El_Machinae Colour vision since 2018 Retired Moderator

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    It's so weird. The presumption is that Congress has the War Powers, and that the president is assigned to executing the powers that were assigned. And now we are in this upside down world where apparently you need a veto-proof majority in order to reduce the powers that the president has.

    So they are afraid to pass a bill that can be vetoed. Instead of a more regular world where you need a majority in order to assign the president the powers, apparently people think you need a veto-proof resolution to strip them.
     

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