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Is a big Asian war coming?

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Winner, Sep 16, 2012.

  1. Winner

    Winner Diverse in Unity

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    Not now, but potentially. It seems to me present day East/Southeast Asia is in many ways similar to pre-WW1 Europe in terms of rabid nationalism existing side by side with rapidly increasing economic interdependence.

    China sends ships in islands row (BBC)
    Asia's defence spending grows amid political tensions (BBC)
    South Korea in military drill near disputed islands (BBC)
    China approves military garrison for disputed islands (BBC)
    South China Sea tensions rattle China's neighbours (BBC)
    Philippine warship 'in stand-off' with Chinese vessels (BBC)
    etc.

    Can/will it self-destruct in the same way Europe did? Will foreign powers (USA, Russia, Europe) be dragged into the conflict, or will they follow the tried and proven policy of selling weapons to all sides and enjoying the show, this time on HD TV in real time? Would such a conflict lead to a global economic collapse, or not? Will the West have the last laugh, or will Asia dominate the 21st century?

    Discuss ;)
     
  2. holy king

    holy king Chieftain

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    who would go to war with china?
     
  3. GoodSarmatian

    GoodSarmatian Blackpilled Idealist

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    WHat do you mean potentially ? in ten years ? Twenty ? Right now there's no way China would risk a war and any sabre rattling is as much directed at their own people to instill nationalism and unity as it is at Japan or other rivals. And more importantly, no one in the region would want to risk a war against China. There might be skirmishes or even short, limited wars, but I'm pretty sure -as sure as one can be about such things- that there won't be a big one.
     
  4. Masada

    Masada Koi-san!

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    No, see '79 and '88.
     
  5. Winner

    Winner Diverse in Unity

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    Not just China. There are nationalist tensions between other Asian countries as well. Basically the whole region is full of tension that threaten to erupt into a violent confrontation. The fact that the US is so closely tied to the region only makes this more dangerous.

    Explain, or remain silent.

    A better question is whether China would risk a war. You know, a short one, our boys will be home to celebrate the Chinese New Year, and all that...

    In all seriousness, nationalism is on the rise in East Asia. It might get out of control, eventually. The Chinese leadership might be pushed into more and more assertive posturing against other countries by the Chinese public opinion (ironically as a result of its own nationalism-stirring education policies and propaganda).
     
  6. Masada

    Masada Koi-san!

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    '78 the Sino-Vietnamese War; '88 the Red Reef Incident.
     
  7. WindFish

    WindFish Class Warrior

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    Europe has self-destructed?
     
  8. aronnax

    aronnax Let your spirit be free

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    The whole area is full of rhetoric, not tension. A few years ago, those massive anti-Chinese protest in Vietnam came to naught. Politicians may condemn and send ships but aside from a show of strength, actions are few. Take it when those Chinese activist landed on Dokodo. They were rounded up and sent back to China with little noise from either government. The people may chatter but the governments will refrain from action.
    Whereas Korea is just having her yearly go at Japan over colonialism.
    Give me a call when one of those ships actually fires on another.
     
  9. Winner

    Winner Diverse in Unity

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    Explain the relevance, not the dates.

    Pretty much, yes. It shot itself into both legs and jumped off the cliff.

    And when it happens? Because it *can* easily happen. If the nationalists are this loud at this stage of the conflict, I wonder how they'll react when a shooting incident takes place.
     
  10. WindFish

    WindFish Class Warrior

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    Eh not really.

    If it did that, the British press would be all over it like a moth over a cheap suit
     
  11. Masada

    Masada Koi-san!

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    In both cases the Chinese could have escalated the conflicts into general wars but never did so.
     
  12. Kraznaya

    Kraznaya Princeps

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    Japan should know better than to act purposely with provocation (buying up private land on Diaoyu and nationalizing it) when its businesses and businessmen abroad are dependent on the Chinese market. It doesn't help that internally the PRC wants distractions like this to turn attention away from the Bo Xilai scandal (coup attempt?) and the shakiness of the upcoming leadership transition.
     
  13. JohnRM

    JohnRM Don't make me destroy you

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    The next big war in Asia will be a Chinese Civil War.
     
  14. Akka

    Akka Moody old mage.

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    I'm pretty sure WWI and WW2 had the British press all over them.
     
  15. aronnax

    aronnax Let your spirit be free

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    It simply won't. Ruling out some accident of sort, Beijing, Hanoi, Manila, Tokyo and Seoul will not be the first to give the order.
    Currently, the government line is to just say 'This is a flagrant violation of our sovereignty'. That's about loud as the government is getting. What individual citizens do however, no matter how much the media is enraptured by it, is largely irrelevant. Example, the massive anti-Chinese Protest in Vietnam last year. Officially, nothing was said. Unofficially tolerated by Hanoi. What actually happened? Nothing.

    And another thing, China is unwilling to send ships out to islands that it can't actually control. The Senkaku Islands are firmly in Japanese hands and while China has used diplomatic means to get back fishermen, it didn't dare to send a single ship out.

    Now, the Spratly and Paracel Islands are a bigger mess cause the de facto control of islands is just completely random. China probably thinks that Vietnam and the Philippines one-on-one as they are weaker then Japan, will be easy to deal with. However, a strong resistance to fall back will probably force China to tone down the show of strength. Afterall, the Philippines stared down China before both withdrew due to typhoon season.

    When the next ASEAN summit takes place, (it was hosted in Cambodia) Malaysia, Vietnam, Brunei and the Philippines will probably form a united front (behind the backs of Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar) with the secret approval of Indonesia and Singapore. If they can get Japan and Korea on board than China will surely lose some of her bite.


    I'm actually glad that Japan is nationalising the Senaku Islands. It's a show of power that Japan will not back down to China, who honestly need to be reminded that they can't just throw their weight around like that. That said, the trade consequences will hurt Japan, but only for a while. Excluding Hong Kong, Japan is China's 2nd largest trading partner. China needs Japan the same way Japan needs China.

    However, I actually want America to stay away from this conflict. The last thing that is needed is to make it seem like this is a China-America dominance over the Pacific and that ASEAN, Korea and Japan are mere proxies of American power projection. This should be something between the rest of Asia and China. (And possibly Australia, probably the few countries that have sway in Beijing)
     
  16. Arwon

    Arwon

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    Australia having sway in Beijing? Or did I read that wrong?
     
  17. Masada

    Masada Koi-san!

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    Cambodia will just stone-wall again.
     
  18. Winner

    Winner Diverse in Unity

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    We'll see about that.

    Yet. Give nationalism time to fester and fever will always follow.

    Yet. China is well aware of its weakness in terms of naval power. Later though, once it strengthens its capabilities, it might be more tempted to use them to put the annoying little dwarfs around in line.

    Or make it feel cornered.

    Europe was pretty economically inter-dependent before WW1 as well. It didn't prevent the largest business partners from beating the crap out of each other when the opportunity came.

    The more Asian countries are dragged into it, the bigger the scale of the war will be. If the Americans take part, the real fun begins. I should buy some popcorn and a better TV.
     
  19. aronnax

    aronnax Let your spirit be free

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    Hence, behind their backs. I would imagine Thailand supporting the Vietnam, Brunei, the Philippines and Malaysia just to spite Cambodia.

    I'm pretty sure Australia's mineral wealth, distance and size gives her leverage when dealing with Beijing.
     
  20. Masada

    Masada Koi-san!

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    Unanimity principle?
     

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