IS and the Middle East 2020 - your prediction

[Loppan Torkel]

5 years from now - how have things worked out?

I think it's safe to say that most people have underestimated them and the support they've received.

Is IS an established and stable force in the region? Is it still expanding? Have other Muslim nations joined forces? Has it collapsed? Has it waged war against Israel? Is Jerusalem under its control?

What's your take on the situation in 2020?

 

[CELTICEMPIRE]

The US is still engaged in a war against it.

 

[Phrossack]

It could have been snuffed out a while ago, but now it's pretty strong and nothing short of a full-scale ground invasion can destroy it. Which the US is quite unwilling to do. Unless Iraq gets its act together, or Turkey and Iran step in, it's probably here to stay for a while.

Major Iranian support, like a joint invasion of ISIS territory with Iraq, would solidify the Iran-Iraq relationship, and would probably worsen the Sunni-Shi'a conflict, but the US would probably twist Iraqi arms to keep that from happening. A victorious Assad might be able to drive IS out of Syria, but I am too ignorant of Middle Eastern politics to guess if Assad would then work with Iraq. The Kurds could probably hold Iraqi Kurdistan, but they've been facing serious difficulties further south, even with US air support.

I predict that by 2020, the Yazidis and other small religious groups will be mostly gone from Iraq due to IS genocide and flight. If Iraq reworks its government and somehow satisfies the Sunni minority (perhaps too much hate exists for peace), it could weaken IS support and retake its territory. But I won't hold my breath. Until then, we'll see more beheadings, crucifixions, and genocide.

 

[Joecoolyo]

Whoa, 2020 is only 5 years away? For some reason that just blew my mind.

I was going to post in this thread that we can't predict the far future like that, just look at al-Qaeda blah blah, but well, 5 years really isn't that much. Carry on.

 

[Yoda Power]

As it looks right now, I think IS will be gone in 2020, but that could easily change.

Whoa, 2020 is only 5 years away? For some reason that just blew my mind.

I was going to post in this thread that we can't predict the far future like that, just look at al-Qaeda blah blah, but well, 5 years really isn't that much. Carry on.

I know exactly how you feel.

 

[Phrossack]

Whoa, 2020 is only 5 years away? For some reason that just blew my mind.

I was going to post in this thread that we can't predict the far future like that, just look at al-Qaeda blah blah, but well, 5 years really isn't that much. Carry on.

I know, right? My mental calendar says it's somewhere between 2000 and 2010 right now. 2020 was always the year that was mentioned for predictions for the not-quite-distant but not-near future.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Syria has a strongman that has brought stability and IS has been expelled into the ruins of Iraq. Civil war in Iraq continuing sporadically, with a faction still calling itself IS. They are not particularly significant, but no other faction in Iraq really is either. Israel continues to cull the Palestinian herd periodically. The world continues to be outraged, and the US continues preventing any restraint being applied to Israel, thus conditions in the middle east continue to deteriorate.

In short, I don't really expect much to change.

 

[kramerfan86]

I think they'll be gone, eventually they will finally cross a line that gets major military action against them, either by Iran, Turkey, or the west.

 

[Phrossack]

I think they'll be gone, eventually they will finally cross a line that gets major military action against them, either by Iran, Turkey, or the west.

They've crossed that line repeatedly, and all it's gotten them is airstrikes. Seizing oilfields and a dam, committing genocide, crucifying people, destroying holy sites, gaining huge tracts of land, sawing Western civilians' heads off on video, threatening Russia... they're running out of lines to cross. What more can they possibly do to get attention, short of sacking Baghdad like it's 1258 or acquiring WMDs?

 

[kramerfan86]

They've crossed that line repeatedly, and all it's gotten them is airstrikes. Seizing oilfields and a dam, committing genocide, crucifying people, destroying holy sites, gaining huge tracts of land, sawing Western civilians' heads off on video, threatening Russia... they're running out of lines to cross. What more can they possibly do to get attention, short of sacking Baghdad like it's 1258 or acquiring WMDs?

They really havent crossed a big line yet. Syria is a massive mess embroiled in a civil war so their actions there arent exactly crossing the sort of lines that will get them in real trouble. They've wisely not crossed Turkey's border and as such have avoided poking that bear. In Iraq they've made progress, but its all in Sunni territory. They'll have to start doing some heavy damage to Shiite territory to truly enrage Iran. They've committed atrocities, but lets be frank, how often does that actually cause a major power to lose their crap and throw down? If atrocities were enough of a line to get great powers invading North Korea wouldnt be a country anymore and there would be a lot more western ground invasions in Africa. They have to threaten an actual US ally like Jordan or Saudi Arabia before the US truly feels the need to get involved.

 

[Tahuti]

They've crossed that line repeatedly, and all it's gotten them is airstrikes. Seizing oilfields and a dam, committing genocide, crucifying people, destroying holy sites, gaining huge tracts of land, sawing Western civilians' heads off on video, threatening Russia... they're running out of lines to cross. What more can they possibly do to get attention, short of sacking Baghdad like it's 1258 or acquiring WMDs?

That's their strength - even they may not know it themselves. Russia is in no position to directly launch assaults that could existentially threaten ISIS and being Anti-Russian/Anti-Israel/Anti-Iran ensures the military and financial support of other Islamists who are actually fighting against those that ISIS condemns by words.

 

[Tee Kay]

Whoa, 2020 is only 5 years away? For some reason that just blew my mind.

Yeah, I had to take a moment to take stock at this.

Civil war in Syria still going on. ISIS is gone, to be replaced by a motley of warring splinter factions, each more extremist than the last. An attack on Americans brought US ground troops back into Iraq, where they are embroiled in a never-ending war. US and Iran approached detente. Netanyahu still in power. Palestine got statehood recognition from most of the European Union, but still unable to win over the United States. Israel and Hamas fought two more wars in Gaza. Sporadic violence in the West Bank as Israel keeps grabbing more land. Erdogan still in power. Another protest in Istanbul followed by bloodbath as AKP thugs clashed with protesters as police looked on. Turkey stopped participating in NATO. Turkey now main supporter of ISIS-splinters after the Gulf States turned into intrigue against each other. Full-blown civil war in the east of Turkey with Iran-Kurds-Alevis-Armenians reconcile and fight together to bring down the Turkish state.

Lebanon is a haven of stability in the Middle East.

 

[Tee Kay]

They've crossed that line repeatedly, and all it's gotten them is airstrikes. What more can they possibly do to get attention, short of sacking Baghdad like it's 1258 or acquiring WMDs?

The only real red line is an attack on the United States on the scale of 9/11. And that, they haven't done yet.

 

[Tahuti]

USA normalises relations with Iran. Netanyahu is sacked for his Anti-Iranian policy and his successor has Israel unilaterally bomb ISIS and in so doing manages to normalise relations with Assad in exchange for Golan Heights, but cause Qatar and Saudi Arabia to drop out of the Anti-ISIS coalition, with Israel taking their place. Some Qatari and Saudi statesmen begin to praise ISIS again. Assad negotiates a settlement with the moderate rebels and is admitted in the anti-ISIS coalition, causing Turkey to drop out. Iraq asks Iran to send troops to Iraq to fight against ISIS, to help combat ISIS, with Kurdistan declaring independence from Iraq and the rest of Iraq becoming an Iranian puppet. Turkey reintroduces Fiqh jurisprudence for family matters.

 

[Rashiminos]

As it looks right now, I think IS will be gone in 2020, but that could easily change.



I know exactly how you feel.

ISIS mutates into a diverse political affiliation and begins to spread in Iran. Cue worsening relationships between Iran and the US and more covert ops within Iran proper.

 

[Ajidica]

ISIS mutates into a diverse political affiliation and begins to spread in Iran.

You are aware that ISIS has made Shia killing their national sport?

 

[calad]

Either Turkey, Iran, Iraq (or what is left of it), Kurdistan (and other ethnically Kurdish regions) and western powers gang up ISIS or ISIS will become a permanent political entity, shunned by international community like USSR after revolution.

I fully expect nothing good from MI. EU should go into Roman mode and conquer whole region.

 

[Kaitzilla]

Prediction looks grim.
Apparently Arab civilization has collapsed.
http://www.politico.com/magazine/st...ans-within-our-gates-111116.html#.VDyAJWd0xhE


More seriously, US foreign policy will continue to be guided by Doom Guy, after his glorious victory many years ago.
http://www.doomworld.com/10years/doomcomic/comic.php?page=0

(Read by clicking the blue arrows in the top right)

 

[illram]

Syria remains a messy amalgamation of government controlled and non-government controlled fiefdoms that no one cares about since it has been going on for five years; the refugee situations in Syria's neighbors remain miserable and off the radar; international clandestine support of Kurdish fighters and sustained bombing campaigns relegate ISIS to Al-Qaeda like internal squabbling and reduces them to engaging in small scale acts of local terrorism like modern Al-Qaeda offshoots; everything else remains mostly the same. I.e., the middle east remains a mostly pretty crappy place with even the most functional and "safe" countries ruled by totally undemocratic dictators who keep peace at the expense of democracy. Tunisia improves and remains the only beacon of hope for a functional democratic Arab world.

tl;dr: five years isn't all that long and a power vacuum takes a while to really go away.

 

[Antilogic]

All right, let's get creative:

ISIS still exists and manages to carve out a kinda sorta stable state covering northern Syria and Iraq, largely because they have signed oil export agreements with major international energy companies who push for their recognition.

/troll