Is Donald Trump Done for?

[Timsup2nothin]

And your argument isn't accounting for the difference between Mueller's report, which at most will say something like "there is a solid basis to prosecute this case...if the person at the center of it were not a sitting President" and will be nothing like a guilty verdict handed down by a judge.

And as previously noted, we already have a "there is a solid basis to prosecute this case...if the person at the center of it were not a sitting President" in the SDNY, and it has made no difference at all.

 

[ulyssesSgrant]

I don't really want to keep going back and forth on this. I obviously have a slightly higher opinion of Republicans. To be clear, I'm not defending any of the actions of Republicans, I'm simply of the opinion many of them in fact do have a tipping point when it comes to Trump. There is a possible but probably not probable Mueller report that would get enough of them to switch sides on the Trump issue. If I do see that report, and they still don't, I'll happily admit I was wrong and move one step closer to agreeing all republicans are fascist.

 

[Lexicus]

I don't really want to keep going back and forth on this. I obviously have a slightly higher opinion of Republicans. To be clear, I'm not defending any of the actions of Republicans, I'm simply of the opinion many of them in fact do have a tipping point when it comes to Trump. There is a possible but probably not probable Mueller report that would get enough of them to switch sides on the Trump issue. If I do see that report, and they still don't, I'll happily admit I was wrong and move one step closer to agreeing all republicans are fascist.

Well, can't ask for more than that I guess. For my part if some Nixon-repeat thing happens I'll back off and admit I was wrong about the Republicans being fascists.

Can I ask what decade you were born in? Both my parents (one born in the 1940s, the other in the 1950s) keep telling me that no one thought Nixon would fall until quite shortly before he did, but I think too many things are different now for that analogy to be valid.

 

[Traitorfish]

To be clear, I'm not defending any of the actions of Republicans, I'm simply of the opinion many of them in fact do have a tipping point when it comes to Trump.

In just three years we've gone from "most Republicans abhor Trump" to "at least some Republicans will eventually disavow Trump". The apparent tendency is not for Republicans to move away from Trump and what he represents.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

I don't really want to keep going back and forth on this. I obviously have a slightly higher opinion of Republicans. To be clear, I'm not defending any of the actions of Republicans, I'm simply of the opinion many of them in fact do have a tipping point when it comes to Trump. There is a possible but probably not probable Mueller report that would get enough of them to switch sides on the Trump issue. If I do see that report, and they still don't, I'll happily admit I was wrong and move one step closer to agreeing all republicans are fascist.

This seems a fair compromise, though I still have to wonder what that possible but not probable report would be, given what they have already ignored.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

In just three years we've gone from "most Republicans abhor Trump" to "at least some Republicans will eventually disavow Trump". The apparent tendency is towards him, rather than away from him.

One thing that is overlooked in the "statistics show Trump's support among Republicans is unwavering" stories is that the polling is based on self designation. So if you polled 1000 people in Feb 2017 and 350 self identified as Republicans and 280 of those approved of Trump he got 80% approval among Republicans. If you poll 1000 people today and 200 approve of Trump he can still get 80% approval among Republicans, so long as only 250 self identify as Republicans. Those numbers may be extreme, but I notice there is curiously little being said about party identification.

 

[Lexicus]

One thing that is overlooked in the "statistics show Trump's support among Republicans is unwavering" stories is that the polling is based on self designation. So if you polled 1000 people in Feb 2017 and 350 self identified as Republicans and 280 of those approved of Trump he got 80% approval among Republicans. If you poll 1000 people today and 200 approve of Trump he can still get 80% approval among Republicans, so long as only 250 self identify as Republicans. Those numbers may be extreme, but I notice there is curiously little being said about party identification.

https://www.people-press.org/2018/03/20/party-identification-trends-1992-2017/

A slight decline in Republican identification since 2016 seems to be in evidence. Not dramatic enough to substantiate this exact scenario, but hopefully something similar is going on. There also looks to be a longer-term decline from the early 2000s.

 

[ulyssesSgrant]

Can I ask what decade you were born in? Both my parents (one born in the 1940s, the other in the 1950s) keep telling me that no one thought Nixon would fall until quite shortly before he did, but I think too many things are different now for that analogy to be valid.

1990s. What do you think are the most important differences that invalidate the analogy?

 

[Lexicus]

1990s.

Holy crap, really? That means you're probably younger than I am! I would never have guessed that in a million years!

What do you think are the most important differences that invalidate the analogy?

Completely different media landscape, even reckoning without the rise of internet/social media. Completely different political party structure, particularly on the Republican side. Increased polarization in attitudes, particular the rise of "negative partisanship," meaning you vote for 'your' party simply because you hate the other party (IIRC Trump won the people in this category by a large margin in 2016). General loss of faith in all governing institutions and virtually all cultural authorities since Nixon and especially since the Great Financial Crisis.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

1990s. What do you think are the most important differences that invalidate the analogy?

Broad spectrum media. In 1974 there were a fairly limited number of media outlets, and the few there were had a reasonable commitment to factual reporting. When the facts indicated that Nixon had to go, it was reported and that paved the way for even Republicans to take action. In the current market there are "media outlets" catering to every point of view, and obviously all but a few of them are therefore not very committed regarding facts. So no one really has the power to pave the way for Republican representatives to take action without said action being career suicide.

Cross posted with @Lexicus but I think I am more specific and therefore my answer is better...besides, I was actually there at the time so can speak to you youngsters from direct experience.

 

[El_Machinae]

We will not have long to wait now according to CNN the other week when they dampened expectations... do you think going after Trumps kids or his bad hair is the best 2020 option ...

So, your prediction is that the report will be released without significant redactions? It will be interesting to see. I don't trust that Trump actually wants the report released, despite what he says. But maybe you're better at reading between his lines, which makes your prediction valuable

 

[ulyssesSgrant]

Holy crap, really? That means you're probably younger than I am! I would never have guessed that in a million years!

Lol, really? I didn't realize I came across as old. Maybe it's the profile picture, or that fact that I'm like super wise and stuff.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Lol, really? I didn't realize I came across as old. Maybe it's the profile picture, or that fact that I'm like super wise and stuff.

There's a widespread hope that anyone who isn't totally down on all things Republican will at least be dead fairly soon and out of the way.

 

[Farm Boy]

It's a pretty good indicator of human horsehocky, but yes, I agree.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Mueller's report delivered to AG, per CNN.

 

[Birdjaguar]

Now we wait to see how much get to know.

 

[Lexicus]

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/22/us/politics/mueller-report-release.html?module=inline

Interesting bit from that article:

A Washington Post-Schar School poll in February illustrated the sharp divide in public opinion: It found that of those surveyed, most Republicans did not believe evidence of crimes that Mr. Mueller’s team had already proved in court, while most Democrats believed he had proved crimes that he had not even alleged.

I wonder whether the Democrats in that poll are mostly using reasoning similar to mine (ie we already know that Donald Trump ordered Cohen and others to lie to Congress even though Mueller hasn't, afaik, alleged such), or if they just are engaging in pure wishful thinking.
fwiw this article (the one linked in the quote) shows 74% of Republicans more inclined to believe Trump than Mueller.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Now we wait to see how much get to know.

What would be hilarious would be some low level justice department staffer saying "well, Trump said he wanted it public, so..." and immediately distributing copies to all the media types.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/22/us/politics/mueller-report-release.html?module=inline

Interesting bit from that article:



I wonder whether the Democrats in that poll are mostly using reasoning similar to mine (ie we already know that Donald Trump ordered Cohen and others to lie to Congress even though Mueller hasn't, afaik, alleged such), or if they just are engaging in pure wishful thinking.
fwiw this article (the one linked in the quote) shows 74% of Republicans more inclined to believe Trump than Mueller.

Again we come to the question of self identification. If someone isn't more inclined to believe Trump than Mueller, how do they self identify as a Republican?

 

[Lexicus]

Can the House not basically order the administration to make the report public?

Again we come to the question of self identification. If someone isn't more inclined to believe Trump than Mueller, how do they self identify as a Republican?

Well, I also wonder how anyone self-identifying as Republican is reporting that they don't approve of Trump's job performance.