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[BTS] Is Monty plotting war on me?

Discussion in 'Civ4 - Strategy & Tips' started by InovA, Jan 15, 2019.

  1. InovA

    InovA Immortal

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    Timeline of events:
    • I discover Montezuma and Zara on my continent early on. It's just the 3 of us here. Immortal Difficulty, Standard Map size, 7 total players, Normal speed, Aggressive AI setting.
    • I go up to 3 cities and get Archery, start making a few Archers to help vs barbs as I had no great horse/copper spots to take so early.
    • I gift my 4th city to Montezuma (awful location) to try and keep things civil between us - he goes to Pleased and sent an early missionary to me, I adopted his religion. Our borders are separated by jungle, so no -1 border penalty.
      • Side Note: This is probably the second time I've ever gifted a city. Does City #4 seem too early? This was probably around 1400 BC, I could check exact time.
    • On Turn 76 Monty starts to plot war! Monty is annoyed towards Zara (no-religion, has -1 border penalty with Monty), but I have only 2 of cities occupied by a military unit, all my cities are within 3 tiles of each other (thought I read that both of these elements add to make you a more likely target), and I know he can still plot at Pleased.
    • I scout him out a bit and see 2-3 Jaguar Warriors and an Axemen moving in my direction (I'm to his north, Zara to his west). It also seems like they were just escorting a Settler.
    • On Turn 84 I request Fishing from him, he gives, buying me 10 turns of peace.
    • Turn 93 he becomes Friendly towards me! Wooooooooo
    • Turn 94/95 peace treaty is gone, I expect him to hit soon.
    • Turn 106, still no signs of army movement, I've been scouting him out and I haven't seen any units going my way. I'm trying to take my 6th city at this point and would like to quickly expand to 8-9 cities but want to know if I'm safe or not. Making Swordsmen to take a barb city, anyways, so they can help if they need to defend.
    So I'm confused now. It's been 30 turns, I feel certain he'd have hit Zara by now if Zara was his initial target, but now he shows no signs of coming after me. I know buying time with the peace treaty was a good move (though maybe wait until he's at my border next time) and IIRC he can still DOW me at Friendly as long as he started plotting at Pleased.

    I don't know if being Friendly when the peace treaty ended makes a difference or not. Thoughts?

    EDIT: Forgot to say when he started plotting lol
     
    Last edited: Jan 15, 2019
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  2. AcaMetis

    AcaMetis King

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    Sounds like Monty started plotting when he was Pleased with you and Annoyed at a land target, so I'd say there's a good chance it's Zara...but Aggressive AI means AIs are more likely to plot war on you, and this is Monty we're talking about, so I definitely wouldn't say you're "safe". Honestly, when you're (relatively) alone with Monty there's not much hope for a peaceful game. Even now that he's Friendly if he DoWs Zara he'll likely demand you join in, and you know what Monty is willing to do if you refuse a demand from him...
     
  3. lymond

    lymond Rise Up! (Phoenix Style!) Hall of Fame Staff

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    Yep, I would still be concerned of him possibly DoWing you at some point. AI can still DOW you if plotting before reaching Friendly. A I've seen AIs sometimes sit in fist mode for ages like that. However, I'm curious as I'm not sure what type of map this is and if you have fully scouted his lands. Is it possible there is land or even another land mass near Monty on the other side. Reason I ask is that he might actually be at war with an AI you have not met yet - either on another landmass or simply as Monty and possibly even Zara never opened borders with said mystery AI so that might be why you've not met that AI. I have run into that a few times before especially on Fractal type maps.

    I recall, I think, Cereal writing up something about city distance and plotting. I thought the point he discussed was more about having cities spaced further apart, but it has been a long time since reading his concept, and no clue the coding behind it. Regardless, none of that really matters when Montys and Shakas are neighbors. Very likely one or the other or both will plot on you at some point unless they luckily get occupied elsewhere.

    Anyway, there are far more important reasons for overlapping cities and keeping a compact empire.
     
    Last edited: Jan 15, 2019
  4. krikav

    krikav Theorycrafter

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    I thought that when you get a gift and a peace treaty, then the plotting is annulled. And if you are to be the target again, they would have to draw the random chance of starting plotting again after the 10 turns.
    Am I wrong in this?
     
  5. AcaMetis

    AcaMetis King

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    As far as I know getting a peace treaty just means they can't declare for 10 turns, it doesn't cause them to change (or even re-evaluate?) their war plans.
     
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  6. krikav

    krikav Theorycrafter

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    I'll hope someone knows, so that I can reevaluate my knowledge.
     
  7. Bibor

    Bibor Doomsday Machine

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    Even if he isn't, he is.
    He might think he isn't, but he is.

    :lol:

    Seriously though, with Shaka, Monty, Nappy and the rest of the merry gang, I always plan for war. If they don't attack me, I backstab them when they are busy with another AI. These guys... *sigh* they can declare without plotting. Seen it happen. Preventive measures are best.
     
    Last edited: Jan 15, 2019
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  8. Fippy

    Fippy Micro Junkie Queen

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    I have no code proof or info, but i know with 99% (;)) that AIs change plotting after a peace treaty was reached.
    Can be seen frequently imo, when red fists disappear after successful begs.
    I have also seen stacks that were headed for me, turn around and the AI declaring on somebody else (no red fist disappear before).

    Accurate info on how this mechanic works? No idea, but it's imo certain that you can escape wars completely with begs.
     
  9. Anysense

    Anysense King

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    They just can't declare, it does not make them change target. When you see AI's stack of doom at your border and ensure 10 turns of peace, they will simply hang around for 10 turns and then DoW.

    Edit: AI sometimes plot against nobody in particular and take their time choosing the victim. This may take very long time and they may never actually attack, but it does not seem likely that Monty would behave this way. He is probably plotting/fighting against some unknown AI.
    BTW, does the fact that he sent missionaries to spread his religion mean anything?
     
  10. AcaMetis

    AcaMetis King

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    I...don't remember ever seeing an AI's red fist go away after I beg something from them. I've seen armies dance on my borders because of a (hastily arranged) ten turn peace deal, but I don't recall them ever moving away and DoWing another target. I've bribed others on the person plotting on me during the peace deal, but getting DoWed obviously causes AIs to re-evaluate their war plans, and only one AI is crazy enough to willingly start a two-front war.

    Related to the OP, guess who the one AI is :crazyeye:.
     
  11. rah

    rah Deity Supporter

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    I've had an AI massed at my border fisted where I did a beg (or something else that caused a 10 turn treaty) turn away and declare on another neighbor a turn or two later.
     
  12. Gumbolt

    Gumbolt Phoenix Rising

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    You can also ask Ai to close borders if Monty would have to cross their land first. On my Deity game begging only delayed an attack where a closed border caused the AI to attack another.

    Best thing you can do is scout out the Ai and have 2-3 units whipped in case he is coming for you.
     
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  13. InovA

    InovA Immortal

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    The map is Continents, I was curious earlier if there might be another civ he's at war with, too, and hadn't scouted Monty's south yet. I progressed to T115:
    • T112 Monty DOW on Zara! Woooooo!
    Very good point that he'll likely want me to join the war. If I say no, I'm sure that Friendly status will be gone.

    I don't think the gesture means anything, but I likely wouldn't have acquired Buddhism without it. Having the same religion gives +2 to +4 relations I believe. I don't think there's a difference between being just barely above Pleased and being almost Friendly, though.

    Lol yes I should be waaaay overly cautious about this fella.

    My initial plan was to have good relations (especially because I usually don't pay enough attention to diplomacy in my games) and maybe have to deal with 1 DOW from Monty, then I'd do a normal Cuir breakout. Backstabbing sounds fun, but I know I wouldn't be well suited for that for a while, I'm still on 5 cities so I wouldn't have great Axe/Sword production and the war might be over by the time I could ElePult. Then again there might be a 2nd war by the time I could ElePult... decisions, decisions.

    I attached the save for any who are curious.
     

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  14. Anysense

    Anysense King

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    Some AI hardly ever DoW anyone even with aggressive AI on, Mansa and Gandhi for example. I wonder whether they are just coded this way or it has something to do with them nearly always being in "spreading mode".
     
  15. lymond

    lymond Rise Up! (Phoenix Style!) Hall of Fame Staff

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    Yep, seen that many times actually. Like My, I don't know the code in this regard, but from experience AIs can change their plans after a peace treaty. Not always, but certainly sometimes.

    Mansa and Gandhi have very low chances to plot war. However, it should be noted that Mansa can plot at please, and I've seen it happen. Gandhi does not.

    Gifting Monty a city was certainly a good idea. Gifting more even enhances the bonus. Zara and Monty could be at war for sometime. If may want to join in if he asks as you will get huge bonus with him. Maybe you will nab some stuff from Shaka.

    Gallic Warriors are pretty sweet, and it'd be nice to get some experience on some.

    Edit: Took a quick look at your game. You really should have more cities by now. Plenty of good spots up there and the free barb city. I might of settled a city down by the clams dyes to block Monty off from the North as he will eventually settle up there if you don't. Definitely need to expand a bit faster.
     
    Last edited: Jan 15, 2019
  16. Kaitzilla

    Kaitzilla Lord Croissant

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    I have seen a beg with 10 turns of peace delay a war for 10 turns, but it still came.

    I have also seen the AI stop plotting.

    What causes it?
    Nobody but DanF knows for sure.

    It is extremely hard to test. :hmm:
     
  17. Fippy

    Fippy Micro Junkie Queen

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    Almost sure it's connected to what other possible targets the plotting AI has,
    makes sense if Monty turns around and declares on a very close AI he's annoyed with.
    I always thoughts this part of the game makes good sense :)
    (ofc begging 10g resulting in 10t peace really favors the player, but oh well we play sp)
     
  18. ArchGhost

    ArchGhost Prince

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    I have seen both cases as well.

    More often the one where the AI just DoWs me anyway after the 10 turns.

    Lain seems to think in his videos that begs are mostly successful at deflecting attacks if they are made as soon as possible, since the AI won't have targeted YOU specifically. Seeing as I've noticed that AIs can refuse even the smallest begs when they want your head, and will attack you anyway even if you get the beg 10 turns later sometimes, I'm inclined to agree with him.

    Even early begs aren't always gonna save you. Some AIs just take so long to mobilize it's basically a wasted treaty and they just kinda stumble onto you later anyway.

    I've also seen the AI (Monty, incidentally) break multiple concurrent peace treaties with me to DoW, AIs plot for over 70 turns while they tech Astro just to come drop 6 units on me, AIs plot for 1 or 2 turns before DoWing a neighbor (from what I understand of the war declare code this is NOT what a dagger even is?!? It's just crazy aggression and a nearby stack leftover), and repeatedly, frustratingly, AIs pick targets they share no land border with and march across the entire map to DoW, despite plenty of other targets they hate even more and that they DO border to pick from. Leave me be, Genghis, you bully! Pick on Gandhi like you're supposed ta!

    I've seen some stuff, and I'm far from as experienced as many of the players on this forum or elsewhere that I learned from watching. Idiosyncratic doesn't even begin to describe the AI's behavior regarding war plotting.

    It doesn't even get them to change their target, it just freezes them from DoWing on you -- for the moment. It is possible to for the AI to choose a different target, stay targeting you for 10 turns anyway, or give up the war altogether (this NEVER happens if the plot is because of a refused demand, they almost always see that through, even sometimes if some one else DoW them before they can execute it!). The only thing that seems to make them give up the war immediately is if you are the only valid target and the plot is for a limited war instead of the AI hating your guts.

    IIRC the only thing Aggressive AI does in practical terms in remove the power rating from the equation of deciding who to attack -- so in other words, no real changes for you as the human in terms of being hit since the AIs usually overpower you almost all game, but the AIs will suicidally attack each other more often. I don't think (or don't remember it, anyway) doing anything to the rate at which they plot wars though, which is why it ends up having the desired effect on guys like Monty who plot war at 1/50 chance every turn.
     
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  19. Johnstrain

    Johnstrain Chieftain

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    Plotting...short answer...yes. Always? In idk how mant bts 18 civ games monty wasnt plotting (near 89%) I'd guess. Actual war about half. Johnstrain
     
  20. Fippy

    Fippy Micro Junkie Queen

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    Interesting topic, from ~8 years of deity playing i came up with those conclusions:
    Begs are not dependant on how much they "want your head", AIs are not coded to think like that :)
    Chance of succesful beg increases with
    a) your power
    b) amount of turns when you last made a beg (or maybe never)
    c) how long that AI has been pleased towards you, if dozens of turns chances are better

    So if a beg has been done before, or if pleased was gained not so long ago, it's imo better to wait with life saving begs.

    With red fists sometimes disappearing after succesful begging, and sometimes not,
    i would think that disappearing occurs if the AI already had you set as target.
    An AI that cannot declare at pleased giving up their war plan on you makes sense, your beg cancelled their plotting (could be rng too) and they cannot start again so..
    red fist poof. AIs that can declare at pleased are more likely to continue plotting, from my experience (unless you are friendly now, ofc).

    Continuing with above example, if an AI keeps a red fist after begging there are 2 possibilities:
    a) you were not the set target (yet)
    b) you were, but now there are still war options for them (maybe including you again)
    Those war options are most likely decided with a check (code) each turn, and are rng.
     
    Last edited: Jan 17, 2019

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