Israel and USA versus Iran and Russia

[Chiteng]

Ok, so you are islamophobe and hate Iran because their official religion is Islam. Not sure if I have to explain that it's not Iranian culture which "executes rape victims" or that Islam is not about enslaving women, etc. Just wondering, what about Pakistan which already has nuclear weapons - aren't we suppose to be all dead or enslaved already?

Pakistan has a far bigger problem to its east. More than it can handle

 

[Chiteng]

Ok, so you are islamophobe and hate Iran because their official religion is Islam. Not sure if I have to explain that it's not Iranian culture which "executes rape victims" or that Islam is not about enslaving women, etc. Just wondering, what about Pakistan which already has nuclear weapons - aren't we suppose to be all dead or enslaved already?

Every country that embraces the Sharia embraces such insane beliefs.
It is so ingrained that you cannot seperate the Sharia from the religion.

Good grief they think you will go to hell if you wipe w your right hand?
The culture is insane.

 

[bestrfcplayer]

The US would not be stupid enough to get into a war with Russia, even for Israel. Besides, Iran knows that if it attacks Israel, then the US is going to get involved, and Iran -although it may not appear at first glance- is scared of the United States.

 

[Chiteng]

The US would not be stupid enough to get into a war with Russia, even for Israel. Besides, Iran knows that if it attacks Israel, then the US is going to get involved, and Iran -although it may not appear at first glance- is scared of the United States.

Daniel Pearl. Terry Anderson. When dealing with fanatics, you cant be sure.

 

[Dumanios]

Iran would most likely not be daft enough to attack Israel without some plan to cover their other immediate threat, that of Saudi Arabia. The Saudi Arabians, like Israel, are US allies, and both Arabia and Israel don't want Iran to have nuclear weapons.

From Here:

"In November 2010, the whistle blowing website Wikileaks disclosed various confidential documents pertaining to the US and its allies which revealed that Saudi Arabian King Abdullah urged the US to attack Iran to destroy its nuclear weapons programme, describing Iran as a snake whose head should be cut off without any procrastination. The documents were dismissed by Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, claiming them to be "organised to be released on a regular basis."

 

[Conspirator]

Daniel Pearl. Terry Anderson. When dealing with fanatics, you cant be sure.

The thing is most Iranians are not fanatics and one could rightly argue that Israelis are far more religiously fanatic than Iranians, overall. You can relate horror stories about Iranian fanaticism but I've read stories of Israeli men spitting on teenage girls on the streets for not being covered properly, cats sentenced to death in courts because the judge reckons the cat was a reincarnation of a shamed lawyer, women being called a prostitue for not sitting at the back of bus and I'm sure there are many others. Judaism isn't any better than Islam - worse in many ways, in fact.

 

[Chiteng]

The thing is most Iranians are not fanatics and one could rightly argue that Israelis are far more religiously fanatic than Iranians, overall. You can relate horror stories about Iranian fanaticism but I've read stories of Israeli men spitting on teenage girls on the streets for not being covered properly, cats sentenced to death in courts because the judge reckons the cat was a reincarnation of a shamed lawyer, women being called a prostitue for not sitting at the back of bus and I'm sure there are many others. Judaism isn't any better than Islam - worse in many ways, in fact.

The point is to prevent Iran from gaining nukes. Not debate religion.
The decision to not trust Iran has already been made.

 

[Winner]

US expansionism is indeed more dominant, than say EU, Russian or Chinese expansionism, which are all pretty real too, since among the great powers, none are different in their appetite for expansion safe for their abilities to do so.

That's a pretty old school realist view I'd say great powers have fits of expansionism followed by periods of introspection or even isolationism. Europe has been in the introspection phase for some time, so I don't see any expansionist impulse there per se - the enlargement is almost complete and I don't see much support for including countries which are not clearly stably and culturally European (Ukraine, Turkey, etc.).

Russia has a dilemma, as you said. It certainly would like to re-assert more 'direct' forms of control over the ex-Soviet territories (especially the Caucasus), but its power is insufficient to do that. The West on one side and the Chinese on the other keep it in line. Still, should the West be pre-occupied by a major crisis in the Middle East, who knows what Putin would do. He's given us plenty of reasons to believe he's not beyond opportunistic aggression.

I'm not a foreign policy expert or political scientist, nor will I pretend to be, but my 2 cents are that Iran wants to goad Israel into attacking Iran to maintain the Orwellian endless war Iran is waging against the USA and Israel, in order to gain internal legitimacy.

Possible, but it might backfire and destroy the regime. If you keep boasting about your military's ability to defend the country and then it fails miserably, your credibility in that respect is gone. Iranian opposition has been strengthening for quite some time, and such a failure might serve as a catalyst for the final confrontation with the regime. Or not, it's hard to say.

To the point that may be very well possible that the whole Iranian nuclear project is nothing but a ruse for just that goal. And while I think Israel shouldn't bomb Iran - even in the case Iran is actually developing a bomb, because Iran would never, ever use it against Israel - it will be hard to convince Israel otherwise, because (whether you understand it or not) the whole Israeli political scene is built upon military pre-emption, and saying Israel should pursue otherwise - however truthful - is just plain political suicide in Israeli politics.

I think the purpose of the Iranian nuclear programme is multi-fold. Partly it's a prestige project, partly it is geared towards producing nuclear weapons, partly it's meant to support nuclear energy industry, partly it's a bargaining chip to be used in negotiations with the rest of the world.

As for Israel, it depends whether they believe a strike can succeed. Israel indeed has a deeply ingrained culture of military pre-emption, but it never was reckless in its execution.

So tragic the outcome of this may be, these variables in themselves do not lend for actual war between Iran and Israel: Israel destroys an Iranian nuclear reactor (that may be fake), which makes Israelis feel safe but delegitimizes Israel's position in the ME further, just as Iran wants to achieve, after which nothing will happen for a long time.

The real danger lies in that the USA and Russia may (want to) take a hypothetical Israeli-Iranian "war" more seriously than the Israelis or Iranians themselves do, turn this into an actual proxy war by supporting the belligerents, and get eventually get into the fray themselves. The USA doesn't want to yield one inch in its strategic position in the Middle-East, so any slight against Israel (or Saudi-Arabia or Yemen) will put the USA on the edge of war. Similarly, Russia's irrational fear of the West may cause Russia to support anyone who is threatened by the USA, noting that Iran is still considered to join the CSTO (and if Iran joins, Russia will have a legal obligation to go to war against anyone who attacks Iran).

The possibility of that is very remote. This isn't a Cold War environment.

So yes, I'm actually worried. It's a lot of "if's", "but's" and "possibly's" but it is a worst scenario that isn't entirely implausible. A war between Russia and America is pure insanity of the highest order, but then again, most - if not all - wars are.

See above. It's not entirely impossible, it just isn't very probable. If America goes medieval on Iran, Russia will loudly object, maybe sabre-rattle a bit in the Caucasus, but in the end it will back off as usual, knowing well it lacks the strength to actually force America to stop. It would be the same situation as when Russia crushed Georgia - the West loudly objected, but in the end, it knew it couldn't really do anything short of actually shooting at the Russians, which nobody dared to seriously contemplate.

---

By destroy Iran, I mean exactly that. Destroy it. Not harm it so it can be resurrected.
In military terms that would mean killing the enemy rather than disarming him.
Unfortunate, but cest la guerre.

Are you insane? Iranian population is, as another poster here affirmed, probably the most pro-Western in the Middle East, and you propose to exterminate it? Even by your logic, that would be a colossal stupidity (beside it being, you know, a genocide).

Western strategy in Iran should be that of containment and gradual subversion of the ruling regime. Basically the same strategy that ultimately led to the demise of Communism. I am sure there were plenty of morons in the West who at some point during the Cold War proposed to just kill "all of them Commies" and be done with it. Fortunately, their advice wasn't heeded.

 

[Chiteng]

That's a pretty old school realist view I'd say great powers have fits of expansionism followed by periods of introspection or even isolationism. Europe has been in the introspection phase for some time, so I don't see any expansionist impulse there per se - the enlargement is almost complete and I don't see much support for including countries which are not clearly stably and culturally European (Ukraine, Turkey, etc.).

Russia has a dilemma, as you said. It certainly would like to re-assert more 'direct' forms of control over the ex-Soviet territories (especially the Caucasus), but its power is insufficient to do that. The West on one side and the Chinese on the other keep it in line. Still, should the West be pre-occupied by a major crisis in the Middle East, who knows what Putin would do. He's given us plenty of reasons to believe he's not beyond opportunistic aggression.



Possible, but it might backfire and destroy the regime. If you keep boasting about your military's ability to defend the country and then it fails miserably, your credibility in that respect is gone. Iranian opposition has been strengthening for quite some time, and such a failure might serve as a catalyst for the final confrontation with the regime. Or not, it's hard to say.



I think the purpose of the Iranian nuclear programme is multi-fold. Partly it's a prestige project, partly it is geared towards producing nuclear weapons, partly it's meant to support nuclear energy industry, partly it's a bargaining chip to be used in negotiations with the rest of the world.

As for Israel, it depends whether they believe a strike can succeed. Israel indeed has a deeply ingrained culture of military pre-emption, but it never was reckless in its execution.



The possibility of that is very remote. This isn't a Cold War environment.



See above. It's not entirely impossible, it just isn't very probable. If America goes medieval on Iran, Russia will loudly object, maybe sabre-rattle a bit in the Caucasus, but in the end it will back off as usual, knowing well it lacks the strength to actually force America to stop. It would be the same situation as when Russia crushed Georgia - the West loudly objected, but in the end, it knew it couldn't really do anything short of actually shooting at the Russians, which nobody dared to seriously contemplate.

---



Are you insane? Iranian population is, as another poster here affirmed, probably the most pro-Western in the Middle East, and you propose to exterminate it? Even by your logic, that would be a colossal stupidity (beside it being, you know, a genocide).

Western strategy in Iran should be that of containment and gradual subversion of the ruling regime. Basically the same strategy that ultimately led to the demise of Communism. I am sure there were plenty of morons in the West who at some point during the Cold War proposed to just kill "all of them Commies" and be done with it. Fortunately, their advice wasn't heeded.

Doesnt matter. They are not running the country
It is only genocide, if you are trying to kill ALL of them.
The purpose is to make sure they dont get nukes

 

[Winner]

Doesnt matter. They are not running the country
It is only genocide, if you are trying to kill ALL of them.
The purpose is to make sure they dont get nukes

No. Genocide doesn't require the intent to kill every single member of a race or an ethnic group. And trying to achieve the goal of non-nuclear Iran by means of genocide of the Iranian people is just plain sick. Fortunately it is quite obvious that you have no idea how international relations work, so I don't have to take you too seriously.

 

[kramerfan86]

I am no fan of Iran's government but I really dont get how they are people like chitheng who are so mortified of it they think that iran having nukes would be the end of the world.

 

[Tee Kay]

No. Genocide doesn't require the intent to kill every single member of a race or an ethnic group. And trying to achieve the goal of non-nuclear Iran by means of genocide of the Iranian people is just plain sick. Fortunately it is quite obvious that you have no idea how international relations work, so I don't have to take you too seriously.

I don't agree too often with Winner. I should savour this.

 

[red_elk]

I honestly don't see much difference between saying
"We must destroy Iran because they are threat to free world"
and
"We must destroy Israel because they are threat to true believers".
Both are equally insane.

 

[Terxpahseyton]

Every country that embraces the Sharia embraces such insane beliefs.
It is so ingrained that you cannot seperate the Sharia from the religion.

Indonesia reveals this theory as what it is: The result of prejudices which are the result of a very sketchy base of knowledge. In English: Ignorance.
(Thanks to Masada for introducing this counter example)

 

[Chiteng]

No. Genocide doesn't require the intent to kill every single member of a race or an ethnic group. And trying to achieve the goal of non-nuclear Iran by means of genocide of the Iranian people is just plain sick. Fortunately it is quite obvious that you have no idea how international relations work, so I don't have to take you too seriously.

Type 'war w iran' into your browser. =)

I am hardy alone in my desire to see Iran disarmed.

 

[Chiteng]

No. Genocide doesn't require the intent to kill every single member of a race or an ethnic group. And trying to achieve the goal of non-nuclear Iran by means of genocide of the Iranian people is just plain sick. Fortunately it is quite obvious that you have no idea how international relations work, so I don't have to take you too seriously.

If the entire people are not destroyed, then how is it genocide?
What is the magic number?

By your logic, the USA waged genocide when it fire bombed Tokyo.
Japan still exists AND the USA won that war.

 

[Chiteng]

I am no fan of Iran's government but I really dont get how they are people like chitheng who are so mortified of it they think that iran having nukes would be the end of the world.

I need no more rationale than 'I dont want Iran to have nukes'

If enough people feel that way, Iran wont get nukes

 

[Leoreth]

Type 'war w iran' into your browser. =)

I am hardy alone in my desire to see Iran disarmed.

Try this with any desire you like, I'm sure you could justify it with this method. Finding some weirdos on the internet who support your idea doesn't make it any better. In fact, it's often to the contrary.

If the entire people are not destroyed, then how is it genocide?
What is the magic number?

There are also still Jews around

 

[kramerfan86]

I need no more rationale than 'I dont want Iran to have nukes'

If enough people feel that way, Iran wont get nukes

Repeating that isnt really a response to my comment at all.

 

[Neomega]

The choice is stark:

A world where Iran has nuclear weapons
or
A world where Iran does NOT have nuclear weapons.

It is very rare in war, to have such absolute clarity.

If I were Israel, I would use maximum force against Iran, including the use of Tactical Nukes. They dont need US participation to do that.

I would not give a damn what happened to the rest of the world, because the rest of the world apparently didnt care what happened to me.

So you would start an all-out nuclear war to prevent the possibility that Iran might one day start an all out nuclear war. Hmm.. ..and then you would wonder why the rest of the world didn't care when you would receive the butt whipping you (as Israel) would so seriously deserve.

If Russia decides to nuke me, oh well, Iran would have done the same, in response to
a Russian attack, I would hit ALL the major population centers of the so called Arab Powers. I would certainly hit Iran as hard as I could.

So Russia nukes you (Israel) for nuking Iran... and you respond by nuking... ...all the Arabs?

George W. Bush? Is that you? Are you playing some Civ and posting here now that you have retired from the presidency?