It just happened to me

[mickyd47]

I just had my first experience of losing a Tank to a Spearman. Can someone tell me of the chances of losing a Tank to a Spearman It should be impossible I thought it was a myth EXPLAIN!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Bowsling]

I read in the manual that they add the defense of the defending unit and the attack of the attacking unit together, then make a percentage. the percentage is the chance of each wound hitting the 2 units.
so if the spearman was fortified on a mountain barricade, each wond would have a slightly less than a quarter chance of hitting the tank, where if it was unfortified on a grassland it would have very low odds of hitting the tank each time.
quite unlikley sitiuation you had happen to you, but no impossible.

 

[Decebalus]

It's not a myth. It's all math and probability.
Like the chances of getting struck by lightning. Extremely unlikely but I wouldn't go out dancing in a thunderstorm without a touch of anxiety.

 

[Fiddlin Nero]

What terrain / city modifiers apply and how many hit points did each have? A save or snapshot file would be best. Of course even in a stand-up fight with all modifiers equal I would put the chances for the little guy at 1 in 100, just a stab in the dark; I like the idea that there is always a chance

 

[TheOverseer714]

It wasn't a Spearman, it was The Spearman from Weasel Op's One More Turn Theater. See, he had magic powers, allowing such feats.

 

[ThinkTank]

Probability indeed. Simplifying, base odds are like this. Tank has 16 attack, spear 2 defense. For 1 round of combat (1 hitpoint that is) this is 16/18 chance the tank wins, 2/18 = 1/9 the spear wins. Assuming 4 hitpoints for each unit the math gets more complicated and you have to sum over all possible sequences of wins/losses until one of the unit has 0 hitponts. This favours the strong unit heavily. For example, using Bomberescorts combat calculator (yeah, I know, I'm lazy):

1hp tank - 1hp spear: win 88%, loss 12%, retreat 0%
2hp tank - 2hp spear: win 91.6%, loss 2.8%, retreat 5.6%
3hp tank - 3hp spear: win 97.3%, loss 0.9%, retreat 1.8%
4hp tank - 4hp spear: win 99%, loss 0.3%, retreat 0.7%

The math is actually more complicated because terrain, fortification, walls, cities, and defending behind a river all give defensive bonuses. That benefits the defending unit.

Spear fortified in city on flat land: 4hp tank - 4hp spear: win 96.1%, loss 1.2%, retreat 2.5%.

Spear fortified in metropolis on flat land: 4hp tank - 4hp spear: win 93.3%, loss 2.3%, retreat 4.3%.

 

[mickyd47]

Its just the shame of it the feeling when that Spearman destroys you Tank its something no one should have to go through. I don't know if i can ever play Civ 3 again with such shame.

 

[dexters]

The more appropriate term is Defender lvl 2 defeats Attacker Lvl 7* (depending on how you count)
In that context, the whole scenario is less preposterous.

 

[Bowsling]

Its just the shame of it the feeling when that Spearman destroys you Tank its something no one should have to go through. I don't know if i can ever play Civ 3 again with such shame.

I think it should be civ iii's calculator under shame, not you.
something is making happy that hasn't happened to me.

 

[Spoonwood]

As ThinkTank shows and discusses, it's not all that probable. The thing to remember about attacking defensive units comes as that you'll more often attack them in fortified cities than elsewhere. So, effectively, a spear either has defense of 3 or 4 when you attack it usually depending on whether or not the city has walls and how big it is. Offensive units don't get bonuses. Suppose you attack a fortified defensive unit in a city with walls or above size 6. In such cases for
archers/horses vs. spears we have
2 attack vs. 3 defense below size 6 or 4 defense if above size 6
swords vs. spears
3 attack vs. 4 defense
medieval infantry, knights or longbows vs. pikes
4 attack vs. 5 defense (I rounded down, this might not be correct)
medieval infantry, knights, or longbows vs. muskets
4 attack vs. 8 defense
cavalry vs. muskets
6 attack vs. 8 defense
cavalry vs. rifleman
6 attack vs. 12 defense
cavalry vs. infantry
6 attack vs. 20 defense
tanks vs. infantry (by this time the AI might have metros, so defense numbers go up even more)
16 attack vs. 20 defense or 25 defense in a metro

There do exist more subtitles to combat like rivers and such.. but generally when attacking a city I'd expect those as the combat numbers. So, make sure to bring enough force to the table when attacking or expect to lose and use artillery.

 

[CommandoBob]

Probability indeed....
Spear fortified in city on flat land: 4hp tank - 4hp spear: win 96.1%, loss 1.2%, retreat 2.5%.

So in round numbers, a vSpear can defeat a vTank 1% of the time. Attack a stack of 100 vSpears with 100 vTanks and once all the attacks are done, one vSpear will remain.

Which means that the vSpear needs a dose of Artillery before you attack, so that it gets redlined and can only lose one time before it dies. It is still possilble for it to win, but now the odds are much, much less than before.

If you want guarenteed wins, try out Civ 4. They just don't happen in Civ 3. Sorry.

 

[Calis]

If you want guarenteed wins, try out Civ 4. They just don't happen in Civ 3. Sorry.

I think I read that even in Civ4 there were warriors beating a tank!?

 

[r16]

my veteran warrior defending in a small city (less than population number 6) defeated a regular tank ; the city might be on a hill , ı don't remember now and ı think there was no artillery or a river . Well all my troops are just like their glorious leader and that is why ı like this site : ı can learn whys and hows of things . ı just discovered AI attacks and actually destroys knight armies if there is only one knight and nobody else in it , probably it saw it as a single unit .

edit ı think ı was mistaken in claiming veteran status for the warrior ; after ı posted ı remembered ı had felt bad about losing the elite unit that had done so much early in that game .

 

[CommandoBob]

I think I read that even in Civ4 there were warriors beating a tank!?

I don't have much experience with Civ4. I'm part of Team Smurkz in the Civ 4 BtS SGOTM 09 and in their turn logs it indicates the chance of victory with each attack. Some have been 100% and that is why I said what I did.

Now Civ4 vanilla or Warlords could be different. I don't know.

 

[Snarkhunter]

ı just discovered AI attacks and actually destroys knight armies if there is only one knight and nobody else in it , probably it saw it as a single unit .

My last game, I had 8 cavalry & tank armies in a city, all 4-unit armies & all at full strength or minus 1 or 2 HP--and the AI *still* attacked it.

As for the spearman thing, people who were in contact with the developers report that they seemed to think the idea of obsolete units beating moderns was way cool, so they jiggered the odds a little to make that happen a little more often.

kk

 

[Spoonwood]

If you've pummelled an AI for a good long time, they'll feel "desperate" and attack anything they can sometimes.

 

[The Professor]

My last game, I had 8 cavalry & tank armies in a city, all 4-unit armies & all at full strength or minus 1 or 2 HP--and the AI *still* attacked it.

Yeah, the AI will always attack armies in cities, regardless of how poor their chances are. If you've got barracks in the city, you can use this to your advantage--fortify a full-strength army in a city with a barracks (this may be a good time to put defensive units in an army) then let the AI throw everything they've got at it. They lose a lot of units, and your army heals back to full-strength as soon as your turn comes around.

 

[Padma]

As for the spearman thing, people who were in contact with the developers report that they seemed to think the idea of obsolete units beating moderns was way cool, so they jiggered the odds a little to make that happen a little more often.

It wasn't so much that it was "way cool", but the devs are aware of the occasional instances where "obsolete" units have defeated "modern" units in history. Rare, to be sure, but it does happen.

Combine that with the desire to give a player who is behind, and maybe lacking a needed resource, the ability to compete (you don't really want the first player with a tech lead to just run away with the game, after all), and you end up with a system that allows these rare instances to occur slightly more often than they do historically.

And dexters has it exactly right. For the computer, there are no "Tanks" and "Spearmen" There are only "units" with certain numerical attack/defense points.

 

[Elear]

Exactly. Even though we didn't win this game, I recall a Deity SG where we fought Muskets with Horseman and actually defeated an empire with strategical attacks, despite the obsolete units. We clawed our way to having Knights, but the AI ended up with Riflemen and we could not continue.

As unlikely as it seems, there is a slight bit of historical precedence, so, it makes the gameplay more fun for everyone.

 

[r16]

my army was in the open and having read that Knight armies are free of attack ı save one leader until ı have knights , using available ones for wonders . The intention is to use them as stack defenders in the attack so that ı can concentrate on producing offensive units for the end game sweep . And as Spoonwood mentioned the Romans were really desperate as ı had the entire world against their 2 or 3 cities remaining . ı save alot so turned back added a sipahi and the 2 longbowmen and the single musketman went looking for other targets .