It's About to Get Hot at the Border

[Commodore]

You all know that migrant caravan marching its way towards the US? Well I just heard civilian militias are forming in border states and those militias are not even attempting to hide their intention that they plan to turn back that caravan with deadly force. Instead of stopping these militias, Border Patrol agents have just been informing land owners near the border to expect armed civilians to be patrolling their land and to just avoid contact or confrontation with them.

What do you all think the end result of this is going to be once the migrants come face to face with these militias? Will law enforcement/the military step in? Will cooler heads prevail? Is there going to be a bloodbath?

Another scenario that I don't see anyone reporting on these militias considering is this: What happens if a fight does break out between the migrants and the militias and the militias, in their zeal, pursue the migrants and cross into Mexican territory? How would the Mexican government react? Better yet, how would the US react if Mexico killed any militia members that did cross into their territory?

Seems like this brewing situation at the border could turn out to be anything from a big, fat nothingburger to a major international incident.

 

[Hrothbern]

Isn't Mexico one of those countries where the national state has fundamentally withdrawn from the concept that the state has the monopoly on domestic violence to protect all citizens.
It is only a small step to withdraw from border control as well.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

An intention isn't a crime. If a militia member shoots at someone or even threatens to shoot at someone, that is a crime. If I were a property owner I would be reporting them for trespassing, which is also a crime. If they cross into Mexico they will be an armed intruder and I would assume that they will be treated as such, and that the US will do nothing about such legal actions by Mexican authorities...though Dingbat Don will undoubtedly make some outrageous tweets about them.

 

[Zkribbler]

Being that the refugees still have 1,000 miles to go, it will be at least two weeks before these armed vigilantes are confronted by "invading" unarmed women and children.

The border is 2,000 miles long. Who knows where and in how many places these refugees will pop up seeking shelter from the drug-fueled violence in their home countries?

I vote nothingburger.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Isn't Mexico one of those countries where the national state has fundamentally withdrawn from the concept that the state has the monopoly on domestic violence to protect all citizens.

No. In fact they have very strict laws about possession of firearms and plenty of law enforcers who would cheerfully shoot armed USians who crossed the border and gave the slightest hint of resistance.

 

[HoloDoc]

The caravan won't even arrive at the border until after the mid-terms.

Legally the militias should be stopped. As a practical matter, I don't have the slightest faith in police or Border Patrol officials to actually lift a finger unless the militias start massacring people. Even then, they may not be present to do anything about it; it's not like the border is small.

If the militias cross the border into Mexico they'll be shot. That simple. Trump may whinge about it, but what's he going to do, invade Mexico?

 

[Hrothbern]

No. In fact they have very strict laws about possession of firearms and plenty of law enforcers who would cheerfully shoot armed USians who crossed the border and gave the slightest hint of resistance.

And what about the rural citizens that formed their militias to kick out the drug barons from their areas ?
The normal police officers ofc bribed by those barons.... and regretably many militias over time using drug business to finance themselves

 

[Timsup2nothin]

And what about the rural citizens that formed their militias to kick out the drug barons from their areas ?
The normal police officers ofc bribed by those barons.... and regretably many militias over time using drug business to finance themselves

That's a dance. Law enforcement is a gang. They have their motives, and usually can be hired. Local militias are gangs. They have their motives, and can also usually be hired. The "drug barons" hire various people and gangs.

But none of that has anything to do with a bunch of armed USians running amok. Mexican law enforcement would have no interest in doing anything but taking them into custody or mowing them down like dogs if they resisted, unless they were really quick with a very large payment.

 

[Silurian]

Being that the refugees still have 1,000 miles to go, it will be at least two weeks before these armed vigilantes are confronted by "invading" unarmed women and children.

The border is 2,000 miles long. Who knows where and in how many places these refugees will pop up seeking shelter from the drug-fueled violence in their home countries?

I vote nothingburger.

We don't know now where they will reach the border but we will know at all times where they are as they walk to the border.
It will be quite easy for "millitia", US and Mexican police and the media to be at the point on the border they will cross at before the caravan arrives.
I would imagine that the US police would hope to turn back the caravan using riot control techniques.
The US police will not want the "militia" firing at the caravan live on TV, possibly into Mexico so will try to disperse the "militia" before the caravan arrives.

 

[Commodore]

I don't have the slightest faith in police or Border Patrol officials to actually lift a finger unless the militias start massacring people.

Even then they might not act. In the US, our law enforcement only like to play rough when they have the advantage in firepower. Once someone comes along that can outgun them, they start to become real timid. Just look at the shooting in Parkland, FL earlier this year for a prime example of that. And that was just one untrained overly angsty teenager.

So if Border Patrol and law enforcement don't feel like they could break up the militia without taking casualties, I'm not so sure they'd step in and stop them from shooting migrants. They might arrest them afterwards, though.

EDIT: I also posted a video a few months ago about how police tactics involving civil unrest and mob violence specifically revolve around avoiding the mob from directing their violence against the police. In other words, our police are perfectly fine with two groups beating the crap out of each other and even killing each other because as long as they are fighting each other, they aren't fighting the police.

The US police will not want the "militia" firing at the caravan live on TV, possibly into Mexico so will try to disperse the "militia" before the caravan arrives.

More likely they are hoping the caravan takes long enough to arrive that the members of these militias lose interest and just go home or that they are just all talk and won't really do anything when the caravan arrives.

 

[FriendlyFire]

Seems like this brewing situation at the border could turn out to be anything from a big, fat nothingburger to a major international incident.

Well the last time Federal Troops were deployed on the border, they shot and killed a 18 year old women who was a US citizen
Luckly she was hispanic so it was ok /s

Given the spat of mass shootrings, bombings and church shootings I say its a safe bet that some nut cases will probably carry out another mass shooting in the near future. We've had school kids, a concert, jews I supose its Hispanics turn next. that of some NFL players whom knelt during national anthem.

 

[Bamspeedy]

Last time the caravan started at 1500 and dwindled to a few hundred by the time it got to the border. It ended by San Diego. Some did not claim asylum at the border crossing and tried to sneak across the border. Those doing so entered illegally, thus could not apply for asylum.

85% of those the did enter legally, passed the first 'fear' test (they were fleeing violence/persecution). But most of them did not formally fill out an asylum application and disappeared into the country like all other illegals. The process can take years, so those doing it legally can expect a long wait.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...nt-caravan-how-many-sought-asylum/1741030002/

 

[Sommerswerd]

Aren't the caravan folks seeking asylum? Isn't their plan to present themselves at the border precisely to be taken into custody so they can make a formal asylum request? I don't think they are traveling in a huge caravan of hundreds of folks with any realistic hope of "sneaking" across the border. Seems like a formal asylum request has to be their plan.

 

[Commodore]

Aren't the caravan folks seeking asylum? Isn't their plan to present themselves at the border precisely to be taken into custody so they can make a formal asylum request? I don't think they are traveling in a huge caravan of hundreds of folks with any realistic hope of "sneaking" across the border. Seems like a formal asylum request has to be their plan.

What bothers me about the caravan is Mexico just made them an offer of asylum that even included getting them jobs in Mexico and the people in the caravan flatly rejected it. I don't know all the legal ins and outs of asylum requests, but being able to pick and choose which country to accept asylum requests from just seems wrong to me. If you are an asylum seeker and a country out there actually extends an offer like Mexico did, you should be obligated to accept it or return to your country of origin. You shouldn't be allowed to say "nah I'm not accepting your offer because I want that rich country just beyond yours to take me in."

Personally, I was indifferent towards the migrant caravan until they rejected Mexico's offer. Once that story broke, I firmly went into the "turn them away" camp. I have seem some people suggest that the UN should set up refugee camps to hold the migrants until their asylum requests can be processed by the US. These proposed camps would, of course, be on the Mexico side of the border though.

 

[onejayhawk]

Aren't the caravan folks seeking asylum? Isn't their plan to present themselves at the border precisely to be taken into custody so they can make a formal asylum request? I don't think they are traveling in a huge caravan of hundreds of folks with any realistic hope of "sneaking" across the border. Seems like a formal asylum request has to be their plan.

That's a strawman. Mexico has already given them asylum. But, you knew that.

What bothers me about the caravan is Mexico just made them an offer of asylum that even included getting them jobs in Mexico and the people in the caravan flatly rejected it. I don't know all the legal ins and outs of asylum requests, but being able to pick and choose which country to accept asylum requests from just seems wrong to me. If you are an asylum seeker and a country out there actually extends an offer like Mexico did, you should be obligated to accept it or return to your country of origin. You shouldn't be allowed to say "nah I'm not accepting your offer because I want that rich country just beyond yours to take me in."

Personally, I was indifferent towards the migrant caravan until they rejected Mexico's offer. Once that story broke, I firmly went into the "turn them away" camp. I have seem some people suggest that the UN should set up refugee camps to hold the migrants until their asylum requests can be processed by the US. These proposed camps would, of course, be on the Mexico side of the border though.

This has to be fueled by a history of success. There are many references to previous caravan's but details are hard to find. There were several during the Obama years but little coverage.

In any event, the vanguard has already reached the border.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/mexico-caravan-migrants-us-border

J

 

[HoloDoc]

What bothers me about the caravan is Mexico just made them an offer of asylum that even included getting them jobs in Mexico and the people in the caravan flatly rejected it. I don't know all the legal ins and outs of asylum requests, but being able to pick and choose which country to accept asylum requests from just seems wrong to me. If you are an asylum seeker and a country out there actually extends an offer like Mexico did, you should be obligated to accept it or return to your country of origin. You shouldn't be allowed to say "nah I'm not accepting your offer because I want that rich country just beyond yours to take me in."

Personally, I was indifferent towards the migrant caravan until they rejected Mexico's offer. Once that story broke, I firmly went into the "turn them away" camp. I have seem some people suggest that the UN should set up refugee camps to hold the migrants until their asylum requests can be processed by the US. These proposed camps would, of course, be on the Mexico side of the border though.

I don't buy this. Mexico is a poverty stricken hellhole with endemic violence. It makes perfect sense that they would not want to stay there, in the same way that migrants coming to Australia shouldn't have to stay in Indonesia

 

[HoloDoc]

That's a strawman. Mexico has already given them asylum. But, you knew that.

J

This would carry far more weight if people didn't flee Mexico all the time.

"That's a strawman. South Sudan already granted them asylum. But, you knew that."

 

[Commodore]

Mexico is a poverty stricken hellhole

It has the 16th largest GDP in the world. They are 69th in per capita GDP, which isn't that great, but still a lot better than the countries these people are coming from.

with endemic violence.

Not really. The worst of the drug violence is over and Mexico has returned to being a mostly stable nation. And again, compared to the countries these people are coming from, Mexico is a shining beacon of peace and stability.

 

[HoloDoc]

It has the 16th largest GDP in the world. They are 69th in per capita GDP, which isn't that great, but still a lot better than the countries these people are coming from.

GDP is a vastly overrated statistic. Per capita is better.

Not really. The worst of the drug violence is over and Mexico has returned to being a mostly stable nation. And again, compared to the countries these people are coming from, Mexico is a shining beacon of peace and stability.

That drug violence could flare up again at any time. And frankly, Mexico's future looks pretty good compared to the US right now. But atm the US is still obviously a much better and safer place to live, work, and raise children. It makes perfect sense for the caravan to go there.

 

[Gori the Grey]

The caravan won't even arrive at the border until after the mid-terms.

But that could play in to any scenario we might imagine. Let's say this happens after the Democrats have won the house but while Trump and the Republicans are contesting every election they can concoct a reason to contest. Now, the militia's angst will be even more heightened b/c they know with a Democratic house no wall is going to get built (even with Americans, rather than Mexicans, paying for it). All the more do we need right-thinking 'Murcan citizens to defend our borders. Fox will be egging on a violent confrontation. Could get messy.