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JAR02, Always War Emperor

Discussion in 'Civ3 - Succession Games' started by jarred!, Apr 25, 2019.

  1. CKS

    CKS Deity

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    Sounds good. I'm not sure the map has changed much in the last several turnsets.
     
  2. jarred!

    jarred! Prince

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    Not for a whole round? Curragh exploration excluded.
    We're making headway now!
     
  3. Elephantium

    Elephantium Elephants think that people are cute, like puppies

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    That's kind of how it goes. Let the AI units crash like a wave on our walls for a bunch of turns, then we surge out with a SoD to take the next town.

    Eventually we have enough production to steamroll everything.

    Who's up next?
     
  4. jarred!

    jarred! Prince

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    After tjs is @Judminder

    Roster:
    1. jarred
    2. CKS
    3. tjs (just played)
    4. judminder (up next)
    5. suede (on deck)
    6. Elephantium
     
  5. tjs282

    tjs282 Socially distancing since 1975

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    Oh all right then, twist my arm, why don'cha? Here's the new bits ;)
    Spoiler Anda :
    JAR02 Andhuaylas 450 AD.png

    (Green lines show roads-to-build)
    Spoiler Curragh :
    JAR02 Curragh 450 AD.png
     
    Last edited: Jun 11, 2019
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  6. Elephantium

    Elephantium Elephants think that people are cute, like puppies

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    Now I'm tempted to leave Anda... in place. Moving it 2 tiles NW does get closer to Atzca, but that's 6 -> 4 in distance. Either way, it's a 2-turn hop for Galleys.
    Also, putting a city on the point where the slave is chopping loses access to the Whales and the mountains. Anda's current location is better for a long-term productive city.

    Any thoughts on war plans? One option is to collect more units in Vilcas, then SoD-escort the Settler up to the irrigation site, then have the SoD proceed to take the next town.

    Another is to build a road from Vilcas to Anda, then road into the mountains E of the army to get the cats through the pass. This has the nice side effect of concentrating units through the path that the Incas will take en route to the killing ground at Anda. OTOH, it will take longer to set up.
     
  7. Judminder

    Judminder Warlord

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    OK got it, will have a look at the save later this evening / tomorrow morning.
    Will have a think and post potential plans for discussion
     
  8. tjs282

    tjs282 Socially distancing since 1975

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    That is all true -- though we would need a Lib (or a FreeTemple, after we capture ToA) to access the Whales ourselves.

    The sucky aspect of Anda's current position, is that it's on Grass, whereas moving it to a (Forest) Plains (1SW, 1S or 1SE) would get us another 2FPT before we'd need a Harbour (for the +1 FPT seafood), a Lib (for the Whales), and/or irrigation* around it (for 2 FPT from the Plains).
    Spoiler * :
    ...irrigation which can only be channelled up there if we move Vilcas to the Incense-Hill
    @Judminder:

    Anda's Settler-to-disband is already queued after the current Worker-build; but if the team agrees to keep Anda where it is, you would need to switch that to e.g. a Harbour, to collect the chop-shields.
    Once the Incan Swords are dead (and our Swords are healed), the Army could move onto the Hills 1NW of the conduit-site: its ZoC-ability could help limit further incursions by injuring any foreign units that tried to get past it, and thus help protect our northbound Slaves/Settler...
     
  9. SuedecivIII

    SuedecivIII Warlord

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    Am I the only one who fears a culture flip in Edo?

    It would be pretty simple to slave out a temple next turn.

    Also, is there a reason we're building colosseums in cities without temples? Prebuild for a market or something? The Colloseum is a relatively inneficient building compared to the temple.
     
  10. Judminder

    Judminder Warlord

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    I do not fear a culture flip in Edo.
    I think I would have to 'vote' for abandoning Anda as the flip risk is too great and we can do without messing about with re-capturing cities. A newly founded city on the tip would be much better imho. Fully on board with the irrigation conduit, but I'm slightly surprised that Hovd still seems to be in enemy hands if I have understood correctly (?) If the settler disband does not happen automatically I may have to ask for advice as I usually find that 'abandon city' does not create the settler. Mind you, I haven't looked at the save yet....
     
  11. tjs282

    tjs282 Socially distancing since 1975

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    Not to put to fine a point on it, but that was in the Handover...
    To Settler-disband, a city must harvest net 0 FPT (or less!).

    But I have just kicked myself as I remember that (1) we are in Monarchy, and (2) we are Agricultural, which means that at Pop1, Anda itself will give us +3 FPT, so we can only get 0/negative FPT once we are (back) at Pop2. So either Anda needs to be Settler-disbanded ASAP, before it can grow to Pop3, or we should leave it where it is. Any flip-risk should pretty much disappear once the Wines-town is ours.

    Edo is a different kettle of fish. It is impinged by Karakorum, so its flip-risk is much higher, unless we can pop its borders. I would prefer a Lib over a Temple though.

    (Not sure what "Slave out a Temple" means in this context, either? We cannot whip-rush under Monarchy...).
    Given the hordes of units incoming near Vilcas, capturing Hovd was a pretty low priority for me. Its location is crap (for the Mongols as well as us), and/but it has an r+vSpear (fortified on a Hill) guarding it. I Cat-bombed it nearly every turn, but with only 1 Cat + vSword outside it for most of my set (I lost the eHorse early on, trying to kill an rArcher approaching Tula through the Forest), there was never any point making a serious attempt to try and capture it.
     
    Last edited: Jun 11, 2019
  12. jarred!

    jarred! Prince

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    Re: Edo flip risk. Relevant apolyton thread: https://apolyton.net/forum/miscellaneous/archives/civ3-general-archive/63497-culture-flip-formula

    Variables:
    Foreigners: 0
    BFC tiles under Mongol control: 3
    Culture factor: 1
    Happiness factor: 1
    Garrison: 0? Not very important
    Culture ratio: we'll use 2, 1, 0.5. I don't have access to the save ATM
    Distance factor: couldn't find this discussed, Fitz says 500-8000 with an average of 2000. Let's say, since we seem to be pretty close to their cap, it's 500.

    P(double their culture)= ((3+0)*1*1*0.5)/500=0.3% per turn OR 1.62 flips per 540 turns
    P(same culture)=0.6%, 3.24 flips per game
    P(half their culture)=1.2%, 6.48 times per game.
    Note, this is chance of the city flipping to them, that's why the culture ratio is theirs/ours.

    Now, can we gain those 3 tiles back? They are in our rank 2 cultural expansion, if they are in a Mongol rank 3 cultural expansion, we claim them all on expansion. If they are in a Mongol rank 2 expansion, Mongols will keep them (their city will have more culture, since it already has grown). It looks like one of them is in a rank 3 expansion, and 2 are in a rank 2? So we can grab one back after cultural growth, other than that we'll need to worry about global culture if we want to drop the flip risk lower.
    (4/500= 0.8%, 4.32 flips per game)

    Hopefully my rambling contains some useful info.

    Edit, here's a border dynamics thread: https://forums.civfanatics.com/threads/the-eight-laws-of-border-dynamics.106882/

    Edit 2, I didn't mean my post to be a critique of suede's thoughts. I was just trying to post info relevant to flip risk. I think adding local culture is important, but since we can't pop rush and we are low-ish on cash, I'd prefer to not add a temple immediately. As tjs says (and I agree), a lib would be a better long-term build. We'll add to our global culture as we build libs and steal Incan wonders. The Mongols seem to have very few cities and thus, a low global culture (or, at least an assailable culture).
     
    Last edited: Jun 11, 2019
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  13. Elephantium

    Elephantium Elephants think that people are cute, like puppies

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    Re: culture flips, I'm not worried. A couple of flips won't slow us down much even if there's a flip risk (does CA II show any flip risk in Edo or Anda?).

    Re: New Anda on the peninsula tip, what makes it better, Judminder? I see a site that has a ton of sea tiles and only 4 land tiles. TBH, I'd rather move Anda 1S/SE/SW rather than NW. The peninsula tip site still requires a two-turn Galley move between it and our core, so we don't gain any efficiency there.

    Yes; tjs addressed that:

     
  14. Judminder

    Judminder Warlord

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    @Elephantium i would prefer a city we can drive into in one turn from loading up on the west coast. I propose disbanding Anda and building another two towns ; one on the tip and the other south east of current Anda IIRC. I'm not looking at it having done any calculations; re what the tiles will give us; just what seems better to me on the face of it.
    If the galley is parked outside the city whilst loading up then it is a one turn crossing
     
  15. Elephantium

    Elephantium Elephants think that people are cute, like puppies

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    Oh, I see. Unfortunately, there's no city position that gives us a one-turn crossing -- the tip of the peninsula is four tiles away from Atzca, and our Galleys only go three tiles per turn. If you park the galley outside the city, you need to wait for a second turn to disembark -- no avoiding that it's a two-turn crossing (or a ship chain...)

    That being said, it turns into a one-turn crossing once we research Astro...but by then, this particular crossing won't matter.

    I'm fine with moving Anda 1SE, 1S, or 1SW, but I don't think the peninsula-tip site is worthwhile.
     
  16. Judminder

    Judminder Warlord

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    Okey doke. No tip of pen town and I'll leave Anda as it is.
     
  17. SuedecivIII

    SuedecivIII Warlord

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    Ah my bad

    Ok. We do have the option of poprushing, we're at 4 pop. If would just take 2 population, if I'm not mistaken.
    Still, you might be right that it could be not worth it, if the risk doesn't go away completely. Maybe keep a couple horsemen within range to retake?
     
  18. CKS

    CKS Deity

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    We are in monarchy - we cash rush, we can't pop rush.

    MapStat shows a flip risk in Edo of between 0.02% and 0.864% and a flip risk in Andahuaylas of 0.3% to 10%. Edo isn't much of a flip risk, but I wouldn't put valuable units in Andahuaylas.
     
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  19. SuedecivIII

    SuedecivIII Warlord

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    Ah true. Better just to leave it then. Retaking wouldn't be too much of a hassle.
     
  20. jarred!

    jarred! Prince

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    Unloading a boat outside of a city uses the movement of the units inside of the galley, so a 4 tile crossing might as well be 6 tiles.

    It's nice to see that my flip calcs were decent approximations. I'd like to figure out how the distance factor is calculated, though. I saw some users using a simple ratio of the distances from each relevant capital, but that method gives meaningless results (probabilities over 100%, and values that don't agree with the values reported by CKS).
     

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