RedCourtJester
King
- Joined
- Sep 7, 2024
- Messages
- 777
FINAL FINAL EDIT: 10/11/24 evening: For funsies, I extrapolated out the same model below, which I will not disclose, based on Trung Trac's reveal. If this model were to still hold (which I realize is asking a lot given right now we have been expressly told only 30 civs + Shawnee), my predictions would be as follows (after some additional accounting for what Vietnam entails for the full game): precisely 60 civs base game at launch, led by 30 leaders. Ten leaders in each era, 17 antiquity, 22 exploration, 24 modern civs. Each combination of leader traits is equally spread to two leaders. Tecumseh and the Shawnee pack add a 31st leader and 3 more civs for a total of 63 civs, 31 leaders, each representing a three-civ throughline of what we used to understand to be a "civ," "Japan" leader, "Persia" leader, etc. In checking leader type permutations, I swapped Ivan for Elizabeth and Irene for Alexios. Alternate persona leaders are most likely (although I am less sure about this): Ashoka, Kublai, Ben, Pedro I, and Napoleon; their alternate personae together with Tecumseh should use each leader type another 2 times each. I am further speculating that, although I don't know which two leaders will represent "Assyria" and "Babylon" in Crossroads of the world, that the new civs are likely: Assyria, Outremer/Crusade States (possibly Seleucids as a larger idea of the Antioch space), Babylon, and Aturqids (possibly Seljuks as a larger idea of the Silvan space). I would guess likely leaders are Hammurabi and some Queen of Jerusalem or Baldwin IV cuz he's memeable. Both paths will progress into Mamluks modern era. As a final prediction which I am even less sure of, I think leaders which will be missing from the base game (not necessarily their civs) are: Aztecs, Inca, Khmer, Ethiopia/Zulu, Mali/Nubia, Poland, Sweden, Morocco, and the Ottomans (oh and Georgia, Scythia, Sumeria, Australia, Kongo, Mapuche, or Cree). I think all of these civs' regions are well-structured for DLC packs to include one returning "civ" leader (say, Poland-Lithuania) and one new "civ" leader (say, Kievan Rus').
FINAL EDIT, 10/11/24: With the reveal of Trung Trac I am leaving this prediction as it was for future comparison. Very curious to see how it compares to the final game. I am hoping it can now become a weekly prediction thread! Feel free to make your own predictions. I am done rationalizing things and hope it can be a fun time for everyone.
I do want to emphasize that this has been a very collaborative effort, even if some individuals who helped don't quite share my predictions. Extra special credit goes to @Giskler and collaborators identifying buildings here, @Henrique3d and collaborators identifying wonders here, and more general collaboration and detail-spotting here. I am not trying to design "my" ideal civ (although my idea of an ideal civ is a well-designed civ that abides by rules and principles and expresses some thoughtful ideas). I am merely reconstructing (as a historian might) what the devs in their brilliance have already designed. And I think it is looking amazing.
10/7/24, about 9:00 PM. I have been brainstorming all week and this list isn't going to change anymore. There may be a few small surprises (and I've finally capitulated and just assumed Aztecs/Mexico are happening despite not having much to go on), but I think this is what we are getting at launch. I am making this post now, the night before the Mississippian reveal, so that if my hypothesis on Tecumseh + three civs is correct, you can all see what my finalized predictions were before that was confirmed.
Note: while I think I have a good number of leaders pegged specifically because of the ideas they represent connecting three civs together as well as generally representing our old notion of a "civ" ("Persia," "Rome," "Germany," "Siam," etc.), note that I'm really not married to any of these leader choices. The ideas they represent could feasibly be represented by other leaders, or those civs could even be united by another leader representing a totally different unifying idea.
Second note: yes, YES I can see that there is no Mesopotamian civ at launch. I have my reasons, and am predicting Crossroads of the World was designed specifically to bring those civs to use first because they just don't fit the "global three-era" skeleton because they don't suggest any connections with exploration civs that Persia doesn't already do summarily better. If that makes you sad, I'm sorry, but this is how it all shook out and clearly the devs are trying to both make VII's experience work at launch, and also bring you your Mesopotamia as soon as they practically can within. I am sure, and I am hoping you will get ALL the Mesopotamia in Crossroads of the World. Chill, be patient.
I have a theory for the order the civs are being released in, some may have already seen me tip my hand. But I'll be making my prophecies week by week in this prediction thread, if anyone wants to play along.
See you all tomorrow!
EDIT 10/8: Since it's late Tuesday and we still haven't seen the Missisippians confirming my theory (maybe pushed off till later in the week) I have a few clean-ups that occurred since making this. So I am uploading a final civ, leader, wonder list as well as a slightly modified version of the map with respect to Mongolia, Japan, and the Ottomans. Also, the Mesoamerican and Isthmo-Colombian paths are just better coalesced as "Viceroyalty of New Spain" and "Viceroyalty of New Granada," respectively.
EDIT: Early morning 10/10: I've gone through and mapped out how this structure would logically be built out into DLC. When looking at how these paths might affect others, I think it was rather dumb of me to go with Timurids and not Sasanids (I was wondering why Abbasids didn't have Great Mosque of Samarra, but of course Fire Temple covers that). I also think that for Japan, Edo period is just a lot more flexible than Kamakura, even if I am not sure yet which direction the devs will go with Japan expansions. Also thanks to some discussion in this thread I am convinced we are getting the Franks/Carolingians as well, and I think our four most likely persona leaders are Ben and Ashoka (oldest and newest), and Cnut and Kublai (Britain is missing a leader and if India gets two personas China can have a second one). Also, given the House of Wisdom I think Harun Al-Rashid is more likely than Saladin. Given that the Mississippians have not been revealed yet and we still haven't reached Tuesday for a Mississippian reveal or otherwise Norse, I am taking the liberty of cleaning this list up again.
EDIT: Afternoon 10/10: Still no Mississippians, so I can keep finalizing lol. Ise Jingu was proposed for a better Yamatai wonder by @Boris Gudenuf, I'm taking it because it is objectively better than what I previously had. Also, I've put enough thought into DLC packs that I feel pretty confident Crossroads of the World will be adding Assyria and Babylon, with paths leading through the Crusader States (in some form) and Artukid into base game Mamluks (which gives more credence to my prediction that is Egypt's endpoint as well). If I'm correct, we should be seeing Krak Des Chevaliers and Great Mosque of Silvan as wonders when we start seeing more exploration era, as the Crossroads pack is not releasing with civ wonders, just natural wonders. So take those as a sign some of these predictions may be legit. Finally, I think Carolingians may just be called Franks or more likely Holy Roman Empire, as Carolingians barely miss catching Notre Dame as a wonder; I don't really care what they are called, they are all roughly the same idea.
Civ count: 48 civs, 19 leaders + Napoleon. Tecumseh has another 3 civs. Total count: 51 civs, 21 leaders + 5 alt personae depending on preorder stuff.
FINAL EDIT, 10/11/24: With the reveal of Trung Trac I am leaving this prediction as it was for future comparison. Very curious to see how it compares to the final game. I am hoping it can now become a weekly prediction thread! Feel free to make your own predictions. I am done rationalizing things and hope it can be a fun time for everyone.
I do want to emphasize that this has been a very collaborative effort, even if some individuals who helped don't quite share my predictions. Extra special credit goes to @Giskler and collaborators identifying buildings here, @Henrique3d and collaborators identifying wonders here, and more general collaboration and detail-spotting here. I am not trying to design "my" ideal civ (although my idea of an ideal civ is a well-designed civ that abides by rules and principles and expresses some thoughtful ideas). I am merely reconstructing (as a historian might) what the devs in their brilliance have already designed. And I think it is looking amazing.
10/7/24, about 9:00 PM. I have been brainstorming all week and this list isn't going to change anymore. There may be a few small surprises (and I've finally capitulated and just assumed Aztecs/Mexico are happening despite not having much to go on), but I think this is what we are getting at launch. I am making this post now, the night before the Mississippian reveal, so that if my hypothesis on Tecumseh + three civs is correct, you can all see what my finalized predictions were before that was confirmed.
Note: while I think I have a good number of leaders pegged specifically because of the ideas they represent connecting three civs together as well as generally representing our old notion of a "civ" ("Persia," "Rome," "Germany," "Siam," etc.), note that I'm really not married to any of these leader choices. The ideas they represent could feasibly be represented by other leaders, or those civs could even be united by another leader representing a totally different unifying idea.
Second note: yes, YES I can see that there is no Mesopotamian civ at launch. I have my reasons, and am predicting Crossroads of the World was designed specifically to bring those civs to use first because they just don't fit the "global three-era" skeleton because they don't suggest any connections with exploration civs that Persia doesn't already do summarily better. If that makes you sad, I'm sorry, but this is how it all shook out and clearly the devs are trying to both make VII's experience work at launch, and also bring you your Mesopotamia as soon as they practically can within. I am sure, and I am hoping you will get ALL the Mesopotamia in Crossroads of the World. Chill, be patient.
I have a theory for the order the civs are being released in, some may have already seen me tip my hand. But I'll be making my prophecies week by week in this prediction thread, if anyone wants to play along.
See you all tomorrow!
EDIT 10/8: Since it's late Tuesday and we still haven't seen the Missisippians confirming my theory (maybe pushed off till later in the week) I have a few clean-ups that occurred since making this. So I am uploading a final civ, leader, wonder list as well as a slightly modified version of the map with respect to Mongolia, Japan, and the Ottomans. Also, the Mesoamerican and Isthmo-Colombian paths are just better coalesced as "Viceroyalty of New Spain" and "Viceroyalty of New Granada," respectively.
EDIT: Early morning 10/10: I've gone through and mapped out how this structure would logically be built out into DLC. When looking at how these paths might affect others, I think it was rather dumb of me to go with Timurids and not Sasanids (I was wondering why Abbasids didn't have Great Mosque of Samarra, but of course Fire Temple covers that). I also think that for Japan, Edo period is just a lot more flexible than Kamakura, even if I am not sure yet which direction the devs will go with Japan expansions. Also thanks to some discussion in this thread I am convinced we are getting the Franks/Carolingians as well, and I think our four most likely persona leaders are Ben and Ashoka (oldest and newest), and Cnut and Kublai (Britain is missing a leader and if India gets two personas China can have a second one). Also, given the House of Wisdom I think Harun Al-Rashid is more likely than Saladin. Given that the Mississippians have not been revealed yet and we still haven't reached Tuesday for a Mississippian reveal or otherwise Norse, I am taking the liberty of cleaning this list up again.
EDIT: Afternoon 10/10: Still no Mississippians, so I can keep finalizing lol. Ise Jingu was proposed for a better Yamatai wonder by @Boris Gudenuf, I'm taking it because it is objectively better than what I previously had. Also, I've put enough thought into DLC packs that I feel pretty confident Crossroads of the World will be adding Assyria and Babylon, with paths leading through the Crusader States (in some form) and Artukid into base game Mamluks (which gives more credence to my prediction that is Egypt's endpoint as well). If I'm correct, we should be seeing Krak Des Chevaliers and Great Mosque of Silvan as wonders when we start seeing more exploration era, as the Crossroads pack is not releasing with civ wonders, just natural wonders. So take those as a sign some of these predictions may be legit. Finally, I think Carolingians may just be called Franks or more likely Holy Roman Empire, as Carolingians barely miss catching Notre Dame as a wonder; I don't really care what they are called, they are all roughly the same idea.
Civ count: 48 civs, 19 leaders + Napoleon. Tecumseh has another 3 civs. Total count: 51 civs, 21 leaders + 5 alt personae depending on preorder stuff.
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This is no different from preorder bonuses they've done in the past like Babylon (Civ5) and Aztecs (Civ6).
