1. We have added a Gift Upgrades feature that allows you to gift an account upgrade to another member, just in time for the holiday season. You can see the gift option when going to the Account Upgrades screen, or on any user profile screen.
    Dismiss Notice

Justice Antonin Scalia, Known For Biting Dissents, Dies At 79

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Cutlass, Feb 13, 2016.

  1. hobbsyoyo

    hobbsyoyo Deity

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2012
    Messages:
    26,348
    Won't there be another recess at the end of the year? Or do you mean that by then, they will be ready to gavel in a session to prevent the appointment?
     
  2. Antilogic

    Antilogic --

    Joined:
    Sep 2, 2006
    Messages:
    15,602
    I mean they will, once per day, send up a single GOP senator to gavel in a pro forma session so they can claim they aren't on recess, and use that to block any recess appointments. I think it came up before with appointments to the NLRB back in 2013 and 2014.
     
  3. hobbsyoyo

    hobbsyoyo Deity

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2012
    Messages:
    26,348
    So looks like that seat will be vacant for the next 5 years, assuming Hillary wins the election. Yeah :sad:
     
  4. Senethro

    Senethro Overlord

    Joined:
    Mar 18, 2007
    Messages:
    5,069
    Location:
    The cutest of cephalopods
    It just doesn't seem smart from any angle as having a SC seat dependent on who wins an election would be the #1 way to get reluctant democrats to the polling booths
     
  5. hobbsyoyo

    hobbsyoyo Deity

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2012
    Messages:
    26,348
    I'm not so sure that won't be a wash as it would rile up the Republican base too. And a lot of the Democratic base is young and I just don't see them getting fired up about a SCOTUS appointment the way they do get riled up about 'transformational' presidents. Could be wrong though. It just seems people my age and younger get excited about things like a black president/female president/socialist president than they do about the prospect of a SCOTUS appointment. Whereas for Republicans who see this as the best way to outlaw teh gayz and smishmortion, it's a pretty big deal and riles them up.
     
  6. Dachs

    Dachs Hero of the Soviet Union

    Joined:
    Feb 23, 2005
    Messages:
    32,588
    Location:
    Moscow
    There are excellent reasons to suspect that this is not true.
     
  7. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Deity

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2013
    Messages:
    46,747
    Gotta work the long game.

    For the next most of a year we have Republicans chanting "Wait for the next president! Let the people have their say!" The people are divided into three groups. People who are just pure Republicans, people who see some sort of sense in this, and people who see this as just plain obstructionism. So the next president is a Democrat...that is a very high probability. The obstructionism helps democrats in senate races...that is a very high probability. If it helps enough, problem solved, but that isn't a high probability, and there will certainly be enough Republicans to continue stonewalling by filibuster, if nothing else.

    So, two more years, and now the people still have the just plain Republicans group and the group that sees outright obstructionism. But that group that saw some sort of sense in "wait for the next president, let the people have their say" now has a vastly different point to look from, in that the people who were saying "wait" are suddenly saying "oh, we meant wait for the next REPUBLICAN president and we don't give a damn WHAT the people said."

    That makes the next midterm election a very dicey prospect for the Republicans, so I doubt they would be so stupid as to stonewall for two additional years. We can hope though, since their penchant for destroying themselves is starting to run rampant.
     
  8. Sommerswerd

    Sommerswerd I'll sit with you

    Joined:
    Oct 10, 2007
    Messages:
    19,610
    Location:
    On the one spin
    The best way for Prez Obama and the Democrats to work the long game is for Prez Obama to recess appoint a SCOTUS Justice, and then all the Democrats rally behind:

    "Let the people have their say! Wait until the NEW SENATE is sworn in to hold the confirmation hearings. If the new Senate votes the Justice out, then the new Prez can nominate someone else." Everybody gets what they want. Prez gets to appoint, the current Senate gets to refuse to confirm, and "the people get their say"...

    Win, win, win.
     
  9. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Deity

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2013
    Messages:
    46,747
    Except that we both know that would play directly into the "out of control madman overusing executive privilege" narrative. The objective is to strengthen the "obstructionist Republican" narrative, not help them out.
     
  10. Sommerswerd

    Sommerswerd I'll sit with you

    Joined:
    Oct 10, 2007
    Messages:
    19,610
    Location:
    On the one spin
    Meh, they're gonna say that anyway... and Republicans believe it no matter what he does or does not do...

    I'd just as soon go ahead and get the SCOTUS Justice in place. To me that actually puts more pressure on the Republicans to actually hold confirmation hearings, since crossing their arms and holding their breath will just result in Prez Obama's appointee staying in office.
     
  11. Antilogic

    Antilogic --

    Joined:
    Sep 2, 2006
    Messages:
    15,602
    I mean, odds are you won't have a Democratic supermajority Senate and president, so theoretically they could keep up the filibuster, but I can't imagine a Senate intentionally leaving a high profile Supreme Court for that long.

    Then again, most political rules seem to be bent or broken now, so they might roll the dice on it.

    Agreed. Anytime somebody says it's going to be an election dominated by something besides domestic, mostly economic issues... I'll believe it when I see it.

    Speaking of the long game, it's been quite awhile since the post-Civil Rights conservative consensus has had to deal with a liberal court. Earl Warren retired in 1969, right after the mess with Abe Fortas insured he would be replaced with a Nixon appointee. Since then, the Court has taken a fairly conservative path.

    Now, if Obama could get a solid center-left justice, the transition would be stark and immediate. But even with a moderate candidate and, say, a Democratic presidency that replaces either Clarence Thomas or Anthony Kennedy with center-lefties and holds Ruth Bader Ginsburg's seat, the transition would still occur.

    Exactly. It's not like the GOP hardliners are suddenly going to turn around and start praising Obama for restraint when they've been whipping up a storm against him for years.
     
  12. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Deity

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2013
    Messages:
    46,747
    Notice that I did not suggest anywhere that the "just plain Republicans" group was subject to change. The "well, maybe waiting makes sense and isn't just obstructionist" group is the group that is subject to influence...either way.
     
  13. Sommerswerd

    Sommerswerd I'll sit with you

    Joined:
    Oct 10, 2007
    Messages:
    19,610
    Location:
    On the one spin
    You did specify that, and I agree with you. But I'm not sure that the "let the people have their say makes sense" group is going to then forget about all the other reasons they are Republican and become Democrats just because the Republicans get exposed as being pure obstructionist on the SCOTUS issue.

    In fact they may just adopt the new spin... which will be "The people had their say and saw fit to let Republicans keep their Senate majority (or filibuster-able +40), so clearly the people don't want a Democratic nominated SCOTUS Justice, so the obstruction will continue."
     
  14. hobbsyoyo

    hobbsyoyo Deity

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2012
    Messages:
    26,348
    Yeah, it really doesn't take very much to justify assbaffoonery if you believe your side is 100% correct, 100% of the time. They already justify and actively support the obstructionism, no need to stop until they start losing lots of elections.
     
  15. Cutlass

    Cutlass The Man Who Wasn't There.

    Joined:
    Jan 13, 2008
    Messages:
    46,916
    Location:
    US of A

    The majority of American history has not been like this. While it has occurred before, what we're seeing now is definitely out of the ordinary.
     
  16. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Deity

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2013
    Messages:
    46,747
    The only people who matter are the people right on the line. But when you get down to it the people right on the line are the ones who make it critical to always push the line your way, even if it is just by an inch. I think this is a good opportunity to push the line towards "obstructionist, party over country, period" by at the very least a few people and maybe a good chunk.
     
  17. Birdjaguar

    Birdjaguar Hanafubuki Super Moderator Supporter

    Joined:
    Dec 24, 2001
    Messages:
    41,627
    Location:
    Albuquerque, NM
    I'd like to see a recess appointment to force their hand.
     
  18. JollyRoger

    JollyRoger Slippin' Jimmy Supporter

    Joined:
    Oct 14, 2001
    Messages:
    42,969
    Location:
    Chicago Sunroofing
    I don't understand why an originalist like Ted Cruz is spouting a so-called precedent going only back to the New Deal Era. Why not examine what happened when there were Supreme Court vacancies during 1796?
     
  19. gay_Aleks

    gay_Aleks communism will win.

    Joined:
    Feb 20, 2013
    Messages:
    10,810
    Location:
    Nightvale, US
    He might find the Constitution, and read it.
     
  20. Birdjaguar

    Birdjaguar Hanafubuki Super Moderator Supporter

    Joined:
    Dec 24, 2001
    Messages:
    41,627
    Location:
    Albuquerque, NM
    Fair weather constitutionalists.
     

Share This Page