Lerner's Law and winning vs losing

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Hygro, Jul 19, 2021.

  1. Hygro

    Hygro soundcloud.com/hygro/

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    Well, see you've fallen victim to their cowardice leaving you doing exactly what I say is the consequence of the problem.

    Economists, real ones, are scientists. The science is difficult. It requires technical knowledge. The discipline is easily infiltrated which is what happened.

    The second category for sure exists. The lies are different, fundamentally. The third camp is fundamentally served by maintaining the lies while knowing the truth. The second camp is fundamentally served by teaching the truth but deemed it an unwinnable fight and better to gain credibility among the window shoppers ogling the third camp's writings. The third camp lies not through pandering but by constructing their own lie with their own frame. This frame can change but it is always theirs. The second camp surrenders having a frame, and thus keeps rerouting their own lie to the third camp's lie and frame.

    And, at the end of the day, camp #2 wants the outcome of their lie to be consistent with people choosing the truth if it had been told. Whereas camp #3 what's the outcome of the lie by consistent with people choosing the lie in spite of how it actually consequences them.
     
  2. Naskra

    Naskra Emperor

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    No, they are not. They are sociologists floundering in a sea of data trying to thrust crappy concepts upon it.
     
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  3. Lemon Merchant

    Lemon Merchant Hall Monitor Super Moderator

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    No, they are mathematicians and scientists.
     
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  4. Naskra

    Naskra Emperor

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    Yes, lots of mathematicians, always finding correlations. Never a universal law or constant. Fuzziness and gray zones everywhere. No science.
     
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  5. Joij21

    Joij21 Emperor

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    Hmmm, I have serious doubt's about how much brain power and hardworking these people really are.

    Sure they may have used calculus and advanced maths when in the university, but after graduating they pretty much just come up with theories and opinions. Basically something an uneducated McDonald's worker could come up with.

    Generally most people see the economist as a Freddie freeloader.
     
  6. Farm Boy

    Farm Boy The long wait

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    Hrm.
     
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  7. Narz

    Narz keeping it real

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    Lol nothing says freedom like choosing between two predetermined corporate stooges. Would you like frosted corn flakes or froot loops w that?

    I am?

    Mostly I'm just saying your simplistic meta-theory-of-everything-of-the-month are kinda out there.

    Are you from a different timeline where presidents solved the national and global problems they were meant to?
     
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  8. Narz

    Narz keeping it real

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    Scientists help us more accurately predict how the world works (weather, ecosystems, particular physics). Economists come up w a bunch of nonsense that never works, can almost never predict anything (to the point where if one of them predicts a major crash he's heralded as a genius) and generally have no accountability. They may have slightly more accuracy than an astrologer or a broken clock but I wouldn't put money on that.
     
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  9. Ajidica

    Ajidica High Quality Person

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  10. Samson

    Samson Deity

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    Like who, or which papers? I have not seen an economics paper that purports to describe the sorts of thing this thread is talking about that would pass muster in a "hard" science journal.
     
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  11. Hygro

    Hygro soundcloud.com/hygro/

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    When it comes to the average person with the title, I 100% agree with this. It was always this way, but within the discipline is a real science with real scientists.
     
  12. Hygro

    Hygro soundcloud.com/hygro/

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    You are the perfect example of why camp #2 sucked. We will never expect you to deep dive and educate yourself, so we're stuck with your understanding being "I only know of camp #2, their sucessors, and camp #3, and since they suck, there must not be a camp #1 with real knowledge and solutions". You hold the mainstream layman position.

    The past two recessions before covid were easy calls by the MMT people simply based on accounting logic. "Bean counters" if you want. But no one heralds them because they're outsider threats to the establishment. Additionally, as "non-mainstream", they are lumped into most people's intuitions as "the rest" and since "the rest" are lumped, and are making just about every permutation of economic call possible, you can say "broken clock" and look no further. No, they are there, systemically making good calls informed by defined mechanisms.

    A correct economic call today receives the same salutations Ignaz Semmelweiss received for "inventing" handwashing in 1847. Fellow surgeons didn't follow suit for 20 years.

    So while we had the three camps of those who knew monetary economics in mid 20th century, until very recently the Democratic party has not been run by a camp #2 but by the 4th+ camps who simply have never understood money. Again, the Larry Summers crowd.

    The Republican-party, basically non-mainstream but still listened-to economists are *for sure* bought with a few useful idiots. The economic mainstream, the mainstay of the democratic party, in today's world are not "camp #2", or few are. They just inherited the position. Most are bought, useful idiots, or anti-useful idiots. They are the most listened to. The camp #1 economists are simply ignored or straw-manned. Camp #1 says "bankers and banks have opposite incentives" which, you know, pisses off too many people. Better to shout "nobody could have seen it coming!"

    The thing that economics can't do, yet, is time the crash. They can only identify the conditions. The very act of people listening to that call changes that call. So it's only useful to make structural arguments. But going from a time when an entry level summer job could cover your urban housing costs for the year to barely covering your summer housing costs, when objectively we're richer now, that's a structural problem. So is not having in your economic literature a correct examination of agent-incentives, aka thinking that " a banking firm" is sufficiently atomic. It is not.

    For truth tellers to win they have to have a platform and they have to play the long game. They've failed to build the platform (a lot are curmudgeons). Some of them with a focus on some of the puzzle stuck their necks out branded themselves Modern Monetary Theory and it's looking like maybe, maybe we're entering another epoch. The third epoch of this post Great Depression saga.

    Personally, I publicly called inflation a year ago, on the basis that the first stimulus was not a one-and-done. Easiest call ever. The government was paying people to not work. I never called inflation before the covid crisis because not calling it before this crisis was also the easiest call ever (QE doesn't cause inflation, duh). And yet professional fake economists have been making other calls and keeping their jobs.
     
  13. Narz

    Narz keeping it real

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    Hope your economic theories are correct and you can invest and makes lots of money. :goodjob:
     

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