Let's Discuss Taiwan

[Commodore]

The issue of Taiwan I think is something that isn't discussed nearly enough, so I'll take the opportunity to start a thread dedicated to the discussion of Taiwan and whether or not it will ever be truly independent of China or if it will ever be reunified with the Chinese mainland.

So what do you all think? How do you think the issue between China and Taiwan will ultimately be resolved, if ever? Peaceful reunification? Recognition of Taiwan as an independent state? War?

It is also interesting to note that only a handful of nations officially recognize the Taiwanese government, and none of them are major powers. Most nations do have "unofficial" relations with Taiwan, including the US and a not insignificant number of nations do refuse to recognize Taiwan at all.

The US is a real oddball when it comes to Taiwan as well. While we do not officially recognize their government, we have signed a treaty committing ourselves to defending them should they be attacked by anyone. That always seemed weird to me. I mean, I get that the US doesn't want to jeopardize it's trade relationship with China, but if we are going to commit to defending them, we might as well officially recognize them too.

 

[Traitorfish]

The current situation is strange, because it depends on the People's Republic being enough of a regional hegemon to insist upon the weird legal fiction of Taiwan as a "rebel province", but not so much a hegemon that it doesn't need that fiction. I think the future will depend on whether the People's Republic is able to expand its influence over Taiwan to the point that they no longer see formalisation of Taiwanese independence as a threat.

Partly it's a question of internal Taiwanese politics. The most strongly pro-China section of the Taiwanese parliament is also fiercely committed to the One China policy, so even if the PRC had no strong interest in maintaining a weird theoretical sovereignty over Taiwan for its own sake, they equally have nothing to gain in renouncing that sovereignty if it only serves to strengthen anti-Chinese elements in Taiwan.

 

[luiz]

Unfortunately I think it will be ultimately resolved by China bullying Taiwan into some sort of submission, which will happen in a few decades, right after the US withdraws security guarantees.

 

[Patine]

Well, consider the inauspicious start to the whole affair to begin with. A right-wing, bloody-handed, authoritarian, intolerant, totalitarian, one-party American-backed dictator was defeated on the mainland by a left-wing, bloody-handed, authoritarian, intolerant, totalitarian, one-party Soviet-backed dictator, and the former fled to the island of Taiwan at a time when the latter had next to no naval power. The situation only got more convoluted since then, including "Nixon going to China," the PRC taking the RoC's seat in the UN (including it's Permanent Security Council seat), the Democratic Progressive rising to an ascendant position in Taiwanese politics since democratization there in the early '90's (well after the death the right-wing dictator, above, in 1976) and the formerly dominant (and only legal party of the afformentioned dictator), the Kuomintang, seeming to change their stance on Taiwan's status, and China "clarifying" Taiwan's status at one of their big party Congresses in the 1980's. All-in-all, nothing has been definitively resolved and the issue has just, strangely, been allowed to hang, completely underdefined. This is diplomatic sloppiness and irresponsibility on SOMEBODY's, part, but nailing down exactly on whose is not easy, nor is a simple solution (not that the long-craved "simple" solutions so cherished and demanded ever do any good or avoid further and exacerbated harm in these situations anyways - a la, Israel-Palestine, Ireland-Northern Ireland, Punjab, Post-Soviet "Frozen Conflicts" zones, and many Aboriginal issues).

 

[Hrothbern]

Taiwan will be traded against Canada in due time

 

[Cutlass]

China will probably take advantage of Trump's complete lack of loyalty and annex Taiwan. They'll never have a better chance, as there'll never be a time when an American president can be more counted on to throw others under the bus. And China's imperial ambitions don't work out with an independent Taiwan.

 

[Commodore]

China will probably take advantage of Trump's complete lack of loyalty and annex Taiwan.

That may be so, but shirking our duty to Taiwan may also be in the world's best interest. Considering the players involved, us living up to our obligation to Taiwan would definitely be a spark for WWIII. Are you really prepared to risk global annihilation and possibly the end of human civilization just so Taiwan can remain independent?

So while Trump's motives for potentially abandoning Taiwan would certainly be far from noble, it may still ultimately be the right thing to do. You know, the whole sacrifice the few for the good of the many thing? Taiwan currently has a population of around 23 million. I'd gladly trade the freedom of 23 million to save the lives of the billions that would surely die in a global war, or even to save the hundreds of millions that would die in a regional war.

 

[Patine]

That may be so, but shirking our duty to Taiwan may also be in the world's best interest. Considering the players involved, us living up to our obligation to Taiwan would definitely be a spark for WWIII. Are you really prepared to risk global annihilation and possibly the end of human civilization just so Taiwan can remain independent?

So while Trump's motives for potentially abandoning Taiwan would certainly be far from noble, it may still ultimately be the right thing to do. You know, the whole sacrifice the few for the good of the many thing? Taiwan currently has a population of around 23 million. I'd gladly trade the freedom of 23 million to save the lives of the billions that would surely die in a global war, or even to save the hundreds of millions that would die in a regional war.

Taiwan should take the advantage (if they had any sense) while Trump's position is not clear and obvious yet, to negotiate an "autonomous province" entry to maintain a significant part (if not all, certainly) of their political, economic, social, and cultural (a la, Macau and Hong Kong), and peacefully accept where the wind is blowing, before Trump's ambivalence becomes obvious and STATED non-commitment.

 

[Cheetah]

After seeing how Hong Kong is treated, there's no way the Taiwanese people will want to become a "two systems" province under the CCP.

When the CCP falls, there's a chance of voluntary reunification, if a new Taiwanese identity hasn't already solidified by then.

The US's willingness to abandon and backstab their allies, as illustrated by Commodore in this thread, and by Trump in current diplomacy, has been noted, however. You're decline will be by your own design.

It's sad, really. I do miss the US from the 50s and 60s. Even with your racism (which you were working on) you were so much to look up to.

 

[El_Machinae]

Totally naive question, but in what way is Taiwan an ally? What is the reciprocal benefit?

 

[Patine]

Totally naive question, but in what way is Taiwan an ally? What is the reciprocal benefit?

Technically, only as a trading partner with unofficial defense agreements. Taiwan doesn't officially "exist" as a "nation" per se, diplomatically speaking.

 

[Mechanicalsalvation]

Totally naive question, but in what way is Taiwan an ally? What is the reciprocal benefit?

Tool to keep Chinas power at check?

 

[Mechanicalsalvation]

Isnt Taiwan to China something simmilar to what is Austria to Germany?

Tbh, I see Taiwan is pretty much Chinese the case with Tibet is different...

 

[Patine]

Isnt Taiwan to China something simmilar to what is Austria to Germany?

Tbh, I see Taiwan is pretty much Chinese the case with Tibet is different...

Well, there are the Aboriginal Taiwanese, who are not ethnically, culturally, or linguistically Chinese, and are racially closer to Filipinos and Micronesians, but you never hear much about them - even in Taiwan.

 

[Mechanicalsalvation]

Well, there are the Aboriginal Taiwanese, who are not ethnically, culturally, or linguistically Chinese, and are racially closer to Filipinos and Micronesians, but you never hear much about them - even in Taiwan.

Thats first time I hear about them at all. Whats is their percentage of the total taiwans 20M?

 

[Timsup2nothin]

The US position on Taiwan, "no, we don't recognize you as a country but sure we will sign a defense pact with you" is ridiculous, but for the US that's hardly unusual. US policy is frequently driven by "we are so exceptional that we get to do things just to piss someone off. We backed shoving a European colonial outpost down the throat of the entire Muslim world for no particular reason other than to see just how mad they would get. We back the rebels in Taiwan just to irritate China. It's bullying, and until someone who can punch us in the nose comes along we'll keep doing it.

I don't think that China will risk punching us in the nose just because Trump is a coward of a bully and might let them get away with it. The US is far too unpredictable. Even if Trump outright tells them the US will allow it, that doesn't mean that the US wouldn't retaliate in 2021...or that the manchild in chief wouldn't renege before then himself. And China doesn't have anywhere near the firepower to get in a shooting war with the US.

 

[Patine]

Thats first time I hear about them at all. Whats is their percentage of the total taiwans 20M?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwanese_indigenous_peoples

Hear you go. It IS Wikipedia article, so not a good source for a college paper, academic presentation, or respectable news column or article, but it should answer many basic questions in a pinch.

 

[Mechanicalsalvation]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwanese_indigenous_peoples

Hear you go. It IS Wikipedia article, so not a good source for a college paper, academic presentation, or respectable news column or article, but it should answer many basic questions in a pinch.

That may be more than native americans in the US but still significant minority at best...

 

[Farm Boy]

Ok fastpussycat, got anything useful for an opinion? Our resident poster, punishable for being too violent for quoting Thomas Jefferson in support of an amendment, doesn't want to trigger world war three over our lingering involvement in a civil war. You combine this with a president that is willing to cause trade spats while suggesting his military allies would be better allies if they were stronger, relative to us, and less like dependents, and you find this feckless. Should we start the shooting war now while we're still mostly ascendant rather than after another couple decades of global development and the last of the old men have been replaced by thier idiot children who suck at history?

 

[Commodore]

with unofficial defense agreements.

It's pretty official actually. While we don't recognize the government of Taiwan, we did actually sign a real treaty pledging to defend them from any attack. The treaty also says we must provide their own military with weapons and equipment which is why most of their gear is US made or domestic copies of US gear.

The US's willingness to abandon and backstab their allies, as illustrated by Commodore in this thread,

You say this like it's a bad thing. I wasn't just being rhetorical when I asked this question:

Are you really prepared to risk global annihilation and possibly the end of human civilization just so Taiwan can remain independent?

I really do want an answer from people who think the US should honor its agreement with Taiwan. Do you think Taiwan's continued existence as an independent nation is really worth fighting a global war over? If you were in Trump's position and tomorrow China started landing troops in Taipei, would you really escalate the conflict by deploying US troops to fight the PLA? I wouldn't. Not one drop of US blood would be spilled for Taiwan. I would still certainly try to get weapons and supplied through to their military so they could continue fighting and push the international community to place severe sanctions on China, but that's about all Taiwan would get from me. Maybe I could be convinced to set up some sort of naval blockade of Chinese ports if I could be assured China wouldn't try to break the blockade.

Let us not forget that it was all this alliance crap that turned what should have only been a regional conflict between the Austro-Hungarian Empire and Serbia into one of the bloodiest conflicts humanity has ever experienced. To let it happen again would show that we have learned nothing from our own history.

It's sad, really. I do miss the US from the 50s and 60s. Even with your racism (which you were working on) you were so much to look up to.

Sorry, but we are done taking care of the world. Time for you all to start solving your own problems. We are getting sick and tired of the world looking to us to solve every damn problem then criticizing us when the solution we provide doesn't produce the result they want. It's America first from now on and if that happens to benefit the rest of the world, cool. But if not, then the rest of the world needs to either shut up and deal with it or, as Tim said, grow the stones to actually stand up and punch us in the nose.