Let's Play: Deity BC Space: Strategies from a 10 year veteran

[Kid R]

I was wondering if letting Peter pop the hut might have been better even if it was possible to get a unit there before him, on the basis that an AI getting a tech is a good result compared to the high probability of all the other possible garbage results, and an AI might stand better chances of getting tech than a deity human. Not sure I understand the mechanism fully but it looks like in a no-barbs game, for the AIs (who get noble handicap hut results) the odds of a tech are 10/80 (12.5%) assuming a healthy unit popped the hut (so healing impossible), or 10/70 (14.3%) if culture or an unpromotable unit popped the hut (so XP impossible). For a deity human the chance is 10/55 (18%) for a healthy promotable unit or 10/50 (20%) for culture or an unpromotable unit.

Hence disproving my idea that AIs would have better chances (Although they would if barbs were in the game, since the human odds for tech would then be crowded down to near 10% by the 40% chance of getting barbs).

So I guess getting a unit there would have probably been good in this case, although it's not totally clearcut because Peter also stood a moderate chance of HIGH_GOLD (quite good for human) whereas a deity human could not get that and would most likely get LOW_GOLD.

Anyway all things considered I wonder if it should be seen as a positive thing that Peter hit his 12% long shot? Shame it wasn't such an awkward tech.

 

[RedKi-rr]

To WastinTime: Please don't give up this game

 

[Mitchum]

Actually, WT popping that hut could have spelled disaster for his game, I think. He is purposefully trying to avoid some techs to keep certain bulb options open. Had he gotten one of those techs, he would have had to redo his bulbing plan.

Note to WT: avoid all future huts until your bulb path is safe, yes?

 

[WastinTime]

Note to WT: avoid all future huts until your bulb path is safe, yes?

Yea, I thought of that too when I (finally) realized Peter got Compass from the hut. I would not have thought of that and I would have popped that hut if I had a unit there, and I saw Peter was coming.
If the AI doesn't threaten a hut, my plan was always to do a stake-out and wait for a chance to get Astronomy.

@RedKi-rr : thx for the encouragement. I don't plan to abandon this game. I apologize for my slowness. It will take some patience for me and the readers to get thru this. There could be longer gaps in my playtime during the holidays, but the pace should pick up speed in the new year.

 

[rah]

Take you time, this thread keeps coming up with interesting stuff so if it get's stretched out, it's only a good thing.

 

[Bandobras Took]

In a game that requires this level of planning, delays between turnsets are only to be expected.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Scouts only get you slightly more gold from huts if you get gold at all. They don't improve odds of, say, Astronomy

Scouts have worse odds of getting Astro than a worker, for example, because scouts can gain experience.

 

[WastinTime]

Scouts have worse odds of getting Astro than a worker, for example, because scouts can gain experience.

I had to check the code to make sure this is actually true. It seems it is! I wasn't sure if it was a simple re-roll if something like experience or healing is invalid. I didn't consider this before. Astronomy huts should be popped by workers, settlers, spies, missionaries, or great people.
That gives exactly a 20% chance of Astronomy assuming you already learned every other hut tech.

 

[Noble Zarkon]

Astronomy huts should be popped by workers, settlers, spies, missionaries, or great people.

Yes - missionaries on a caravel are often the best option.

 

[Sun Tzu Wu]

I wonder whether Great Spies/Spies should also pop Astronomy with 20% odds on maps with Barbarians or Raging Barbarians? Sorry, I don't have the code handy to check at the moment.

 

[pob]

Tribal villages can be hostile if popped by spies when barbs are on.
The main advantage of using spies/great spies is that they can pop a hut even if a barb is guarding it.

 

[WastinTime]

... spies/great spies is that they can pop a hut even if a barb is guarding it.

I never thought of that. I don't play a lot of barb games, but good to know.
I guess the other advantage is that the spy would survive where normally the unit that pops hostiles has little/no chance.

While we're on the topic, I did read in the code that hostiles won't appear <8 tiles from your capital.

 

[Dazzle]

Any updates coming? Looking forward to seeing where this leads to.

 

[Bandobras Took]

He said a few posts earlier that updates would be slower during the holidays; I'm not expecting anything major.

 

[WastinTime]

Yea, sorry, I'm thinking I won't get any gaming in this week. I will force myself to play at least an hour or two each day the following week. It's hard to play for just an hour when there has been such a huge break, so I'll try to be more disciplined. I do still read here every day, so I can discuss things.

 

[dutchfire]

At this point, which technologies are you still hoping to get from the AI?

 

[WastinTime]

Still hoping for Construction, Calendar, CoL, HorsebackRiding and eventually Drama. I haven't decided if I'm going to gift nationalism to Mansa and try to get Constitution free.

 

[Sun Tzu Wu]

Still hoping for Construction, Calendar, CoL, HorsebackRiding and eventually Drama. I haven't decided if I'm going to gift nationalism to Mansa and try to get Constitution free.

After Constitution, Mansa Musa will probably go after Democracy. One Civ adopting Emancipation early is tolerable though and it may be a while before the other AIs have enough technologies to trade to Mansa Musa for Democracy. So, it may be quite a long time before other AIs adopt Emancipation (or maybe not so long -- tech trading can go either way depending on AI to AI diplomacy).

 

[WastinTime]

Democracy won't be a problem in my game. I suspect that the AIs will be dead or beaten down by the time I get Constitution. Then Mansa will die swiftly after that.

 

[Sun Tzu Wu]

Ok, wiping out Mansa Musa after he gets Constitution for you certainly solves the Emancipation problem. Enjoy your game!