I was wondering if letting Peter pop the hut might have been better even if it was possible to get a unit there before him, on the basis that an AI getting a tech is a good result compared to the high probability of all the other possible garbage results, and an AI might stand better chances of getting tech than a deity human. Not sure I understand the mechanism fully but it looks like in a no-barbs game, for the AIs (who get noble handicap hut results) the odds of a tech are 10/80 (12.5%) assuming a healthy unit popped the hut (so healing impossible), or 10/70 (14.3%) if culture or an unpromotable unit popped the hut (so XP impossible). For a deity human the chance is 10/55 (18%) for a healthy promotable unit or 10/50 (20%) for culture or an unpromotable unit. Hence disproving my idea that AIs would have better chances (Although they would if barbs were in the game, since the human odds for tech would then be crowded down to near 10% by the 40% chance of getting barbs). So I guess getting a unit there would have probably been good in this case, although it's not totally clearcut because Peter also stood a moderate chance of HIGH_GOLD (quite good for human) whereas a deity human could not get that and would most likely get LOW_GOLD. Anyway all things considered I wonder if it should be seen as a positive thing that Peter hit his 12% long shot? Shame it wasn't such an awkward tech.