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Long term future plans/strategy.

Discussion in 'The Knights’ Brotherhood' started by I. Larkin, Jan 26, 2011.

  1. Lanzelot

    Lanzelot Moderator Moderator

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    Here is Cotta's plan, which we should discuss:
    They want to use the period from T105 - T123/125 (?) vor short-rushing libraries, and then start 4-turn research on T125 the latest. That means they will get MT in T145. (If they get the libraries up in T123, it would be finished in T143.)

    This means three points:
    • They want us to maximize our commerce between T105 and T123, so they can get the libs up in time.
    • During T125-145 we only need to send them as much money as is necessary to cover their deficit research. We can keep the rest of the gold for Horse->Cav upgrades. We need to find out, how much the techs up to MT cost depending on which ones we may still get from GLib, or which might be cheaper for the Küche, because Eagles/Anarchie did them first.
    • Of course the GLib needs to be ready at the latest around T143. But earlier would of course be better, so we can perhaps use some MDI/Knights?! Perhaps we should not build any archers in Camelot, and start with GLib right after GA. (Perhaps already 4 turns before end of GA, then the GLib would need 18 turns (4x30 + 14x20)?!
     
  2. I. Larkin

    I. Larkin Deity

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    I wrote already, that it is very risky plan. We will produce only 1 unit per turn or even less after GA.
    I recommend negotiate Peace with anarhos and after 20 turns smash them with cavs.
     
  3. Lanzelot

    Lanzelot Moderator Moderator

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    Might be a good strategy.
    Do we have chances to capture Saragossa and/or LulzSec next turn?
    In this case I would wait one turn with the peace offering.

    On the other hand, the following factor also need to be considered: as long as we have war, they can't revolt. And I think, if we fall back to defensive positions, there is not much risk, even if we produce less units than the Anarchos?! If we rebuild Ivan-Gorod and Templar's Tobacco with city-walls, they should be easily defensible? So we could just sit in these fortresses and wait for mistakes on their side...

    It would be risky, if the Anarchos still have the full support of the Eagles, but at the moment it doesn't look like it. The Eagles still haven't sent Feudalism, even though their contract would require it! And if you follow the current discussion in "Zugprobleme der Anarchie", it looks like the relations between Calis/Loki (or Eagles/Anarchie) are not the best... So if the Anarchie really is "isolated" right now, it would be better to continue the war?! But as usual: carefully and avoid losses.

    Of course, if they are really isolated, we would have good chances to get a "profitable" peace treaty. But I think it's too early at the moment to make a decision. I would like to watch the situation a few more turns, if that's ok?!
     
  4. I. Larkin

    I. Larkin Deity

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    Most probably not. In Sarragossa 3 Trbukhets and they'd disband it if we have a chance.
    Near Luz only 2 healthy unit whereas inside at least 3.
    I think better step back, heal and go to Commune Iron.
    Good if stack of 6 may step on Iron as well.
    Will see, save must come soon.
     
  5. templar_x

    templar_x usually walks his talks

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    lurker's comment: however, they obviously have different opinions about what had to be done this turn. therefore Loki´s eruptions in the forum. maybe he insisted that they had to disband the town or sth like that and they did not obey.

    i do not see any hurry to take Lulz now. you destroyed a lot of shields, disguised the attack plan in the north, and pillaged their lux. now you really should not risk that ministack.

    @ Ivan - Loki brought up that there obviously was some discussion about your attacks on Lulz. someone must have raised that it was "obvious cheating" due to the unexpected order of the attacking units. while i do not have the slightest doubt that it was a smart plan behind that order, i still would not have done it that way. could you explain your reasoning behind it?

    in the north, i would go and try what is possible, and again not risk the stacks.

    t_x
     
  6. I. Larkin

    I. Larkin Deity

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    I knew from previous saves that there is Archer and trebukhet somewhere at South. RnG work this way: if trebukhet misses next hits not in favor. (It is "pseudorandom"). => weakest units first. Experience and logic... That it.
    If Saragossa stays 3 horses will hit first? Or bring Catapults? Will see at save.
     
  7. templar_x

    templar_x usually walks his talks

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    thank you for that information. i did not know about that specific prng feature.

    but how could you know whether the treb would hit or not?

    i expect something to have happened to Lulz, they may have abandoned it, because they did not fire the treb on your stack again...

    t_x
     
  8. I. Larkin

    I. Larkin Deity

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    Two possibilities: If hit then chances of 3/4 Sword vs fortified Hoplite low. If not then they low again due to bad RNG...

    Strange move... Stack will heal at position then...
     
  9. templar_x

    templar_x usually walks his talks

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    i tell you, they only want to defend behind walls.
     
  10. Lanzelot

    Lanzelot Moderator Moderator

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    Here is an update on the recent discussions with justanick:
    • Eagles most probably finished their FP last turn.
    • Between the lines I read that the research alliance between Küche & Eagles has ended after the current tech (Chivalry from Küche and Education from Eagles). This means that most probably Eagles and Küche will now both be researching towards MT. My assessment: the Eagles are more powerful, so unless we can give the Küche our best support, the Eagles will be faster. (And if our theory, that Eagles cooperate with the Anarchos, is still right, it means the Anarchos can get Cavs before us. templar thinks, this is not too dangerous for us, but if it will be a significant number of turns, it may become dangerous?!)
      Any chance we can now send a significant amount of gold to the Küche?
    • We will let our lux-deal with the Küche run for another 20 turns. For this it is important to check the flag "Always re-negotiate deals" in your preferences, when you play the next turns. Can you please make sure that this flag is deactivated, when you play the next couple of turns? Otherwise there is the risk that our deal "suddenly" ends, and our cities are revolting...

    Further ideas:
    • I'll give the peace negotiations another try. Peace "for free" ok?
    • I think that for the other continent the best point of time will soon come to trigger their GA. So we need to be prepared that suddenly a few dromons appear, looking for one of our galleys as a "cheap GA trigger"... Better not keep wounded galleys in vulnerable positions now.
    • I also suggested to justanick to send a small number of muskets over to the Anarchos once they want their GA, but justanick didn't respond to that...
     
  11. I. Larkin

    I. Larkin Deity

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    "OK, if Shlisselburg our and T-T or similar place our as well. O'O must work at northern tiles.
     
  12. templar_x

    templar_x usually walks his talks

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    lurker's comment: i would not give them peace and let them revolt. but this is your decision. but i would like to comment that there is actually nothing you do to avoid the Byz to trigger their GA with you. just take the WH if it happens.
    t_x
     
  13. Lanzelot

    Lanzelot Moderator Moderator

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    It is a difficult question.
    • If we don't make peace, it may become very hard for us to finish our infrastructure and help the Küche finish Military Tradition asap. At the same time we may not be making any progress in this war against Hoplites. We may end up loosing lots of shields for units and loosing lots of gold for unit-upkeep (and rushing units).
    • If we do make peace, they get a chance to revolt and may recover so much, that they might become a tough nut to crack later on.

    What do you think: is it possible to play a defensive game for 40 more turns (meaning: we concentrate on markets and send most of our gold to the Küche, while building only the necessary military to repulse their attacks)?
    If this is the case, I would stay at war. If not, we should make peace.

    The alternative may be: defend passively until our GLib is ready. Then we have trebuchets and MedInfs as well and can again try active play?!
    In any case I think we should not try too risky advances before we get Cavs. (We were very lucky two turns ago to get away with a "blue eye"...)
     
  14. templar_x

    templar_x usually walks his talks

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    lurker's comment: first of all, they have to agree to peace. until now, they did not even reply. possibly the new players set their minds to bravely fight this out but not to apply any new diplo. maybe they even have a deal with the Eagles that says they have to fight you. what else really can they contribute?

    you might think about it again when the northern operation actually proves a threat for them. adding a threat and reducing the demands however does not sound very convincing to me, if i were the enemy.

    t_x
     
  15. Lanzelot

    Lanzelot Moderator Moderator

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    Unfortunately, if they simply sign a military alliance with the Anarchos, we won't get any war happiness!! (Wars triggered by MAs or MPPs don't give WH... :sad:)
     
  16. I. Larkin

    I. Larkin Deity

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    Sure. May be just ask what they don't like in my proposal?
     
  17. Lanzelot

    Lanzelot Moderator Moderator

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    I have been thinking a bit more about the peace treaty. I think we should stay at war:
    • We are expanding again, while the Anarchos are still stagnant.
    • Our marketplace are soon finished, and then we can concentrate on units again.
    • The Anarchos are still stuck in Despotism and will fall further and further behind, especially once their GA is over.
    • Once we finish the GLib, we automatically get Chivalry. Then we can think about offensive again?!
    • If we let the Anarchos consolidate, they will be able to effectively help the Eagles. The Küche can not compete in research with Eagles + Anarchos (especially as we must assume now, that both have Education and can build cheap universities. The Küche doesn't have Education yet.) But if we keep the Anarchos crippled or even eliminate them, we and the Küche together should have no problems with the Eagles. (The Küche may suffer some damage in a future war, but we are quite safe on our continent...)
     
  18. templar_x

    templar_x usually walks his talks

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    you should make sure that the Küche does not consider to research Edu themselves, as it is pretty sure that the Knights will get it via GLib sooner or later.
    t_x
     
  19. Lanzelot

    Lanzelot Moderator Moderator

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    How likely is it, that we won't do research for the next 50 turn? In that case we should set a lone scientist on Music Theory. J.S.Bach's is a very nice wonder to have, it if really comes to a "science duel" with the Küche.
     
  20. I. Larkin

    I. Larkin Deity

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    What our relationship with Kuche NOW? Since Eagles are dangerous we can't deviate from research path GP->Chemistry-> Metallurgy->MT. Most probably Eagles will do the same and they will do it faster, then Kuche. They have chivalry and might be logical that they prepare to war already.

    Now our army strong vs both, but I am not sure, that soon Kuche will be weak. What do you think about an idea to shop some Knighst to Kuche land and concentrate at Kuche/Egales border?
     

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