Discussion in 'Mafia/NOTW' started by topsecret, Dec 15, 2019.
Finally we agree. As Monty suggested, lynch order matters. Who do we go for tmr? Tak or Zelda?
So, N2 had a gigantic discussion of roles, abilities, who had done what, how roles interacted, on and on and on. This all went on around my continuing dispute with Raskol which eventually merged with the role thing as he claimed Bowser with abilities to match. Syn was sitting the whole thing out, but I think Tak and Jo's participation should be closely examined. Then Syn popped through with the unexplained vote for Raskol. At the time I was thinking that I had done more than enough explaining for both of us so didn't take it as a big deal, but now I am willing to take it as further evidence that Raskol is probably Bowser and we ought not lynch him.
If we had mislynched I think it is a very safe bet that the wolves would NK Raskol.
Well, yes...apparently he would mind. Well done Monty.
Not just well done either. There are those paranoid moments when the question "hey, how is it that we all came to take Monty as pure town?" crosses my mind. This makes me feel a lot better about it.
If I had said "Mario" I would expect this to get me consideration for the Mafia HoF.
I also think that the whole 'three day charge coin steal' is a great cover ability claim to disguise the fact that Syn had an ability that he would never want to cop to and was using it every night. I think he was the enemy roleblocker.
I was obviously impressed with the massive effort. However, I wasn't too eager to jump on your conclusion. Eventually, there didnt seem to be a case that could compete with yours on Rask.
Syn's dead, so bus him?
Also for the record, I very strongly contemplating amending you to 'if it is red, it must be Mario.'
With a coordinated distancing response by the dead man walking.
Synsensa (6) - Tim, JohannaK, Snerk, Takhisis, LordArgon, Yakostovian
While I'm sure a lot of lynches bring to mind the possibility of a bus, and a lot of people think that possibility is far fetched, I want to ask one question here...
Is there anyone who thinks that I was ever going to back off of the case I thought I had on Syns?
The mafia, including Syns, I'm sure knew that he was as dead as a live man could get. If we lynched anyone else I was going to go berzerk and by the time the NK came in Syns would have been so completely mafia smeared that no one would have been able to salvage him.
I give Yako some credit for taking responsibility for casting the deciding vote, but I strongly advise against taking being on this list, generally, as worthy of town cred.
I made as much of a point as I could manage to keep this read focused on Syns; what he said, what was said about him. I tried my best to not get distracted by unrelated stuff that would send me down my next tunnel prematurely. If I manage to wake up not dead I'll read it all yet again looking for that.
Making a case on Monty from joke posts. Could be pressuring, but he really wants to make this sound serious?!
So Tak calls scum out of Visor for him wanting to lynch no posters... then vote Choxorn for that very reason a bit later.
Tak basically makes the same case than me on Manasi, vote her for the lynch, then come up with this (speaking about me)
Yet that's what allowed catching Mario once Monty and Tim started the mass claim chain.
It's noticeable that more than half of Tak's posts are in D1. It could be a RL thing, it could be that D1 is the perfect moment for all out misdirecting suspicions and fluff. Easier to hide then, after that, scum must be more cautious.
For now I stay on my lynch wish list. pzelda or Tak should be our next lunch. I'll have a look at D2/D3 if I have time before EON.
Good job indeed, considering you started the day wanting to lynch Bowser. But let's not get sidetracked here. There are still mafiosi to catch. I honnestly think there are at least 2 more, and I don't know how many independents there are and how harmfull they can be.
Keep it up.
Tim has basically done N2 and D3. I'll try to finish the runthrough of D2 before night is over.
First, let me acknowledge that you are right about the replacement timing. You were announced as a replacement more than half an hour after that post. So while strange, it is unlikely to be spew.
Despite not having a reason, as you say, to talk about Mary, multiple people apparently did so nevertheless. In that context her active partners might be expected to want to keep their mouths shut. That's merely reasonable - don't take it as specific evidence that Mary is scum. In fact, much later in #1802 - as quoted tonight by Tim - Syn does talk about the possibility that Mary rolled scum (but doesn't want us to take it seriously).
I haven't been pushing for your lynch, just pointing out valid marks.
That might sound plausible if you ignore all the suspects I've discussed. Now let's be productive.
Well, if we must test the effect of your ability...
Hey, what's up? What do you think of all the analysis so far?
Money is money. Tell you what, I'll mark Zelda tonight and we lynch him, I get my payoff, I break even.
I would rank Csargo slight-town by now, on Rask's level. I've come around on the subject of his meta, he's been cooperative, and his claims check out and seem more useful to town than mafia.
We can tie them, but I'm pulling Zelda. I am quite confident, more so than with any other candidate.
On the wagon Argon looks good for voting where he didn't need to, and especially the D2 campaign by Syn and Zelda to get him lynched. Yako looks good for his initiative, and Snerk for the D1 reasons. Let's see how D4 shapes up with respect to solidifying town reads. If Zelda is scum I think we can box in the remainder.
How? And, speaking of Newyn, why did you say Newyn was scum during N1? Newyn was the only flipped player at the time, and he was town. Why would you say that?
Why did you recapitulate suspicion of Zack only to abandon it as soon as you saw pushback? The way this looks is that it fits into a pattern of forming reads for weak reasons, and then flip-flopping on them for weak reasons.
Tak was his partner. Scum did not have a good time in that game (in large part due to Renata's leadership).
This was Syn's first time scumming, and I wouldn't be surprised if he indulged in more conscious distancing than track-covering antispew. While the particulars look good for Choxorn (he was one of the most plausible candidates going into D3, and Syn leaning on Visor's death and suspicion of Chox is manipulative), I would ask how long Syn maintained his vote, or case.
Unrelated, but speaking of that game, can I just take a moment to talk up how amazing Pizza's writeups were?
He didn't, continuing a pattern of not making any particular case himself. He basically disappeared through the bulk of my deep read wall of posts that turned into pressuring Raskol, then reappeared with a Raskol vote. The wolves at that point, I would guess, were breathing a sigh of relief that even though I had spurned their Choxorn gambit I had safely landed off of them and on Raskol. I would guess they had already arrived at a day three strategy of easing someone into pushing the not abandoned Choxorn wagon for them against the Raskol wagon that I would obviously be pushing. Surprisingly, Raskol got off the hook and I think that left them scrambling.
Still circumstantial, but that was maybe the worst possible answer to the question from the Tak perspective. That's exactly the kind of coordinated wolf play I would expect from Tak, as is the potential buswork with Syns at Syns' end.
I just want to repeat; credit to Snerk and Monty for this. I actually was quietly complaining about it because it was a distraction from my purpose at the moment...which was lynching you, of course.
This has me thinking. Tak's case on Manasi wasn't really the same as yours. Yours was "this post here is intolerable and wolfy, you can't just say 'these people are towny and no I will not justify that.'" That argument had merit, but it was sort of post specific. Tak's case was "Manasi causes chaos that wolves can hide in, period." As he openly stated, policy lynch.
But here's what has me wondering. His "policy lynch" argument had absolutely no shot at really getting her lynched. It pushed Zack off the Manasi Wagon. As you point out, he never really backed your argument, and his sucked, so did he really want Manasi to get lynched day one at all?
Taking you at your word that you knew Manasi would be low hanging lynch bait for as long as she lasted, and contribute nothing but chaos to the town's efforts...would it be safe to say that a wolf-Tak would want to keep her on the wagon list, but keep her around as long as possible?
And with that question in mind I'm off to see just how much Tak really contributed to getting her past the finish line on D2.
I will do my best to get out result PM'S quickly but tonight it could take a while because of unforseen responsibilities. I don't know when I will be finished for sure but the night will end at 8:30 PM as usual.
I call BS on this, period.
EoD has three wagons tied at five with your vote outstanding, and eight minutes too late you appear claiming that you were reading posts. You could have been the deciding vote and saved Monty the responsibility. The Manasi wagon was at least 50% your wagon to begin with. If you showed up in time to read the 220 posts then you were there in time to vote, and your whole "policy vote" argument was still absolutely rock solid and could easily cover town-Tak if she flipped town.
I think that WOLF-Tak showed up and didn't care which townie got lynched and that WOLF-Tak would have been just as happy to have Manasi still around causing mayhem so she could be mislynched on day three and screw the town over completely.
Give me some other reason that you didn't vote, wolf.
In retrospect it seems more likely that Tak was blocking Snerk than he was protecting LordArgon. But why go to such length to come up with some absurdly convoluted role?
Someone is getting a spicy meatball tonight.
Separate names with a comma.