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Mario Mafia [MAFIA VICTORY]

Discussion in 'Mafia/NOTW' started by topsecret, Dec 15, 2019.

  1. RRRaskolnikov

    RRRaskolnikov Goldfish

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  2. topsecret

    topsecret Believer

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    I definitely won't be able to send results quickly at EON. Too busy irl. Will do so as soon as I can, but could be an hour or more.
     
  3. topsecret

    topsecret Believer

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    Night Three Over.

    Orders locked.
     
  4. Montmorency

    Montmorency King

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    Leans

    Tim
    Snerk
    Yako
    Zack -- Argon

    Csargo
    Choxorn

    Rask
    Johanna
    ---
    Newyn
    Tak
    Zelda
     
  5. JohannaK

    JohannaK Careless Whisperer

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    I am so sad that you think of me so low.

    We should probably stay quiet until the results come up, we dont know if we are dead yet.
     
  6. topsecret

    topsecret Believer

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    End of Night Three
    "Well Princess, glad to see you have woken up."

    Peach was lying face down, unable to see where she was. Her memory was cloudy. She had heard a familiar voice, one that was speaking now... Who was that again? She knew their voice when they first spoke, but whatever had happened to her since then had jarred her memory.

    "Who are you?" she insisted, "and why am I here?" But the intent in her voice could not conceal her confusion.

    "You are very fortunate, you know," the voice said. "I did not have to save you from that awful brawl occurring at Bowser's Castle."

    Peach strained to recall what the voice meant... she did not remember.

    "Of course," the voice droned on, "I set this all up. Mario thinks he will recapture the Kingdom's former glory, while I kidnap you and prepare my plans. Bowser's Kingdom is also in chaos, and no one can stop me now. No one can do anything."

    Peach struggled to recall the voice. Whatever had happened to her had sent her into a blackout, and she could not place it. Whoever it was, they were orchestrating some plan to harm Mario and Bowser. They were here, hiding, waiting for whatever would happen to seize control of something... what was it? And why?

    Just then Peach recalled who the voice was. It was...

    Klunk. Everything went black.

    ---

    Meanwhile, the night had passed in considerable haste. Timsup2nothin roamed the Castle Grounds, looking for intruders. Finally he spotted something in the distance. Those plumbers won't get past me, he thought.

    He approached the mysterious shape, but then he heard an all-too-familiar sound.

    The dreaded jump.

    Poof. Timsup2nothin went up in a cloud of smoke.

    Timsup2nothin has been killed!
    Spoiler :
    He was Coin Coffer!
    Spoiler :
    He was a member of the Koopa Kingdom!


    ---
    Day 4 has begun!
    Day Four will end in around 46 hours after this post, on Tuesday, January 14th at approximately 8:30 PM EST.

    Vote for someone to lynch in bold using the vote: Topsecret format.

    Vote for someone to receive two coins in blue.

    Players [12]:
    1. Takhisis
    2. JohannaK
    3. Montmorency
    4. Choxorn
    5. Yakostovian
    6. Snerk
    7. Csargo
    8. Zack
    9. RRRaskolnikov
    10. pzelda
    11. LordArgon
    12. Newyn
    You may begin voting and posting.
     
  7. topsecret

    topsecret Believer

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    I was annoyed about the delay, but I had important family matters to take care of which were unavoidable. :)
     
  8. Montmorency

    Montmorency King

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    DAY 2

    @Zack

    What I got out of D2 is that Argon was probably a Mafia-driven wagon. In fact, I think that wagon was crawling with scum. Syn never left the wagon till EOD after the Argon BG claim, and at times it was the top wagon in a day where the other main wagons were Choxorn, Zelda, and Manasi (town). Tak had Argon as his ONLY vote all day. That Zelda tried to revive it or keep it going at various points and had Argon as his most consistent scumread at the very least indicates they aren't partnered.

    If Zelda is scum, the unjustified top town read on Tak (but who could also be scum with Visor, Zack, or Rask) is interesting. Superimposed observation: in #969 Tak shades Choxorn for lurking.

    Interactions between Syn and Zelda, such as they are, are consistent with a pairing. Their agendas on Visor and Argon and (shading) Choxorn, for example, were well-aligned.

    Actually, I kind of want to clear Choxorn just for Synsensa's decision to tie him for top wagon (with Yako) at one point near EOD. This was after Syn was forced to abandon Argon wagon following the BG claim. In fact, both Yako and Chox look good here.


    Spoiler :
    Day 2 opens with Dolbster dead, Visor voting Manasi, Tim voting Argon, and Syn voting Newyn 2.0 with a strange tone. But is open to lynching Argon for inactivity.

    A little banter about the Org between Syn, Zack, and Tak. What Tak thinks of Syn's vote on Newyn:

    Visor thinks Syn is more solvey this game, which could be a bad or good sign. Newyn immediately responds by sussing Visor in a post liked by Syn.

    Zack votes Zelda because he's acting like scum and Tim is sympathetic (though Rask appears to disagree). Zelda thinks he is a reasonable vote for his inactivity, and directs Zack's attention to Visor's interaction with Dolbster.

    Zelda votes Argon for "faked emotions." I don't understand the last line.

    Csargo finds Zelda and Syn nullish, but agrees somewhat with Zack on similarity of Zelda's play to the Org game.

    Zelda returns with more reads. Tak and Yako strong town, then Visor and Tim with some Visor tinfoil, then Manasi and Snerk though Zack could be with one of them if scum. Zack scum-lean. Rask underwhelming. Csargo and Newyn 2.0 look good, scared that Newyn 2.0 will be mislynched again. Doesn't like Argon. Johanna null. Monty, Chox, and Syn all null, but Syn towniest and Chox likeliest to be scum.

    Syn wants to get on the Argon wagon, so he does. He claims he has an additional reason: Argon is being lackadaisical. Syn tells Visor that he is different this game because he doesn't want to alienate people by being too jokey. This deaws a joke about Syn being the worst from Snerk.

    Zelda thinks Dolbster was a good nightkill [Ed. *thinking face*] and therefore Zack is paired with one or more of Visor/Rask/Tak/Snerk [Ed. that rule of thumb may come into play again]. Tak looks best and Rask and Visor look good. This contradiction is resolved by appealing to the theory that an experienced player must have authored the Dolbster kill.

    So at this point the vote against Argon is Zelda, Johanna, and Syn.

    Spoiler :
    Unofficial Tally (EOD ~ far away)

    LordArgon (3) - pzelda, JohannaK, Synsensa
    Manasi (2) - Visorslash, RRRaskolnikov
    Choxorn (2) - Snerk, Timsup2nothin
    pzelda (1) - Zack
    Visor (1) - Manasi
    Yakostovian (1) - Csargo


    Rask and Visor yolo vote Zack. Syn expresses surprise at this. Zelda, who had consistently suspected Zack, takes the opportunity to join in (though he still thinks Argon will flip red). He responds to Snerk's comment on the D1 off-wagon voters - Chox, Argon, Jo, Yako - by saying at least one must be scum. Slight contradiction in the same post when he says he's "not really seeing" Csargo's vote on Yako, who was one of the off-wagon voters D1. Zelda says Csargo's vote made him want to vote Csargo for a moment.

    Tim chides Rask for sheeping Zelda in POEing Manasi and Tim.

    Zack thing's Zelda's vote on him is bad OMGUS.

    Zelda now doesn't like the Zack wagon formation and will look at Visor and Rask. Thinks Zack may be weird in a town-Zack way.

    Choxorn analyzes Zelda's reads and finds them poorly justified and inconsistent. #1160

    As we reach midday, Syn is very active with tallies. Tim, Rask, Johanna, and Argon join Zack on Zelda during this time, who promptly switches to Choxorn. The tally at this time is:

    Spoiler :
    Unofficial Tally

    pzelda (4) - Timsup2nothin, RRRaskolnikov, JohannaK, LordArgon
    Choxorn (3) - Snerk, Visorslash, Zack
    LordArgon (1) - Synsensa
    Zack (1) - pzelda
    Visorslash (1) - Manasi
    Yakostovian (1) - Csargo

    Not voted yet: Newyn/Mary, Yako, Monty, Takh, Choxorn


    Newyn joins Zelda on Zack and Tim switches to Argon. Tak also votes Argon.

    Choxorn doesn't have confidence in his inconsistency case against Zelda. Many townies act inconsistently. Tak suggests Choxorn can self-pres onto Zelda. Tak is not aware of the inconsistency case against Zelda. When I mention it to him, his response is difficult to interpret.

    Monty joins Manasi on Visor wagon and starts shading Zelda, Visor, and Rask.

    Tally at this time (triple tie between Zelda, Choxorn, Argon):

    Spoiler :
    Unofficial Tally (EOD ~ far away)

    pzelda (3) - Rask, Johanna, Argon
    Choxorn (3) - Snerk, Visor, Zack
    LordArgon (3) - Synsensa, Tim, Tak
    Zack (2) - Zelda, Newyn
    Visor (2) - Manasi, Monty
    Yakostovian (1) - Csargo

    No Vote: Choxorn, Yako


    Tim and Newyn discuss Choxorn and his case against Zelda.

    Zelda acknowledges Choxorn case, says changing reads is normal and claims to have a progression. Consistency is for bussing scum, like in the last game.

    Yet another reads post by Zelda, #1238-9 (that I and Visor liked at the time). Rask is inconsistent (!), Zack wagon dissolved too quickly which makes Rask scum. Argon wagon disappeared too quickly, and Argon is a bandwagoner and a waffle. Johanna is also a bandwagoner but should clear up over time. Chox should have more time to develop, gets town cred for the decent case against Zelda but back to null for not following through with a vote. Zack's read on Tak (putting him in his own tier) doesn't seem real, because he knows Tak and Manasi and has a firmer read on Manasi. Monty is back to town because of the size of his walls. Visor could be with Newyn, but probably not because Visor voted Mary D1. Asks Tak for more activity and a vote.

    Zelda also switches from Zack back to Argon here.

    [Ed. So far Zelda has been pretty consistent pushing Argon, and has suspected Visor, Rask, and Zack most of the day.]

    Quoting 1238 from above (note the final category and the Newyn post in response):


    Zelda has Yako and Manasi as town because the former is not a low-effort player and seems invested, because the latter feels at home in the thread and had a lot of opinions early. He has Chox as towny for not noticing anyone other than Zelda. Responding to Newyn, he says putting Visor as town would be easier for scum, and as scum Zelda would have fewer towns and would avoid confronting Zack. Has a doubt about Manasi being town because her poking Visor, if he's town, could be a scummy throwaway vote.

    Johanna votes Argon to make things interesting.

    Rask has Zelda, Zack, and Visor as suspects, and maybe Newyn and Argon too.

    Argon votes Choxorn for self-pres.

    Zelda walks back his supposition re: Newyn and Visor. Tells Rask that Argon wagon disappearing (though it's now top wagon) should be a cause for concern. Fishes for a roleclaim from Argon. Tim and Zelda discuss power mafia concept.

    Zelda reveals he is a stealer role, like Johanna.

    Yako votes Argon. He found the wagon dissolving earlier concerning, but doesn't recall being Zelda's second top town read and is suspicious of Zelda for noting his meta of "s joking about flipping town and not really caring if he gets hanged or not." Zelda replies that Visor originally noted this meta.

    Tim talks about his power and his feelings over being townread, which prompts a joke from Syn. Tim realizes that Syn is "people who aren't particularly solvey useful, but still manage to participate consistently."

    Rask realizes Argon wagon has run away and chasises Yako for thinking otherwise. Tim and Rask resolve to defuse the Argon wagon.

    Zelda has ISOed Dolbster and wants to look at Tak and Csargo. No associations for the latter, but Zack and Tak could be paired. Tak's presence isn't consistent here but he is capable of being a power scum. Csargo is easy to find as town but he's never seen him scum. Dolbster had Snerk as strong town, but later doubted it, Zelda reports. Finds Csargo's nullish reads on Zack, Tak, and Argon fishy. Also, Csargo defended Choxorn without townreading him and didn't justify his vote on Snerk at first. All this may be worthy of a vote later.

    Syn comments that he likes that Zelda has become more active. Argon wagon is sufficient. Visor is quiet and is acting like Cold War Synsensa. Syn emphasizes how different Visor is in this game. Syn says about Newyn: "Newyn V2's tough to read because I'm subconsciously comparing what he says to Newyn V1 even though I shouldn't be doing that."

    Tally at this time:

    Spoiler :
    LordArgon (6) - Synsensa, Tim, Tak, Zelda, Johanna, Yako
    Choxorn (4) - Snerk, Visor, Zack, Argon
    Visor (2) - Manasi, Monty
    Zack (1) - Newyn
    Yakostovian (1) - Csargo
    pzelda (1) - Rask

    No Vote: Choxorn


    Syn expresses surprise that Choxorn hasn't voted yet.

    I suggest that Zelda referring an analysis from Dolbster's reads is an attempt to pocket Tim (who started D2 with that approach).

    Chox finds Zelda's recent contributions towny and votes Argon. Yako agrees on Zelda, but wants to vote Choxorn to even the wagons.

    Argon claims bodyguard, on Csargo.

    Zelda states that "Lord Argon has terrible posts and way too many votes on him." Syn finds this incoherent.

    Syn says that most people have been scum-leaning Csargo since D1 (wrt Argon's claim I believe).

    Johanna wants to level the wagons and unvotes Argon. Zelda has been improving and has no chance to compete, while Chox isn't an appealing target.

    Syn isn't sure why Argon wagon revived to become top wagon - a bad reply? Rask tells him to ask Tim, who revived the Argon wagon.

    Rask switches to Manasi, starting that wagon.

    I assert Chox and Zelda could be teamed and dislike Visor's supportiveness toward Zelda.

    Visor votes Manasi, but is fine with Choxorn vote.

    Tim explains his D2 vote history.

    Snerk says not to lynch Argon. He also says not to lynch Snerk, which Synsensa likes.

    Visor abandons Manasi for Choxorn. Tim switches from Argon to Csargo. Zack votes Yako. The tally is now:

    Spoiler :
    Voting (15):
    LordArgon (5) - Synsensa, Tak, pzelda, Yako, Choxorn
    Choxorn (3) - Snerk, LordArgon, Visor
    Visorslash (2) - Manasi, Monty
    Yakostovian (2) - Csargo, Zack
    Manasi (1) - Rask
    Zack (1) - Newyn
    Csargo (1) - Tim

    Unvoted:
    JohannaK


    Visor votes Yako and Yako OMGUS vote.

    Zack and Yako argument over Argon claim ongoing. Zack says it's absurd so many still on Argon; Tim and Visor point out most may not be around to switch yet.

    Syn interjects that Snerk may be defending Argon on the basis of a role scan. Syn might switch off Argon if the claim can be believed, but isn't sure onto whom. He unvotes.

    Johanna isn't sure, but he finally votes Yako because Visor and Zack are on him and the alternatives are even less clear.

    Tally at this point:

    Spoiler :
    Unofficial Tally

    Voting (15):
    Yakostovian (4) - Csargo, Zack, Visorslash, JohannaK
    LordArgon (3) - Tak, pzelda, Choxorn
    Visorslash (3) - Manasi, Monty, Yako
    Choxorn (2) - Snerk, LordArgon
    Manasi (1) - Rask
    Zack (1) - Newyn
    Csargo (1) - Tim

    Unvoted:
    Synsensa


    Syn disagrees with Tim's Csargo suss.

    Newyn is suspicious of Argon's claim but decides to vote Chox, not liking the other wagons.

    Synsensa votes Chox 2 minutes later, tieing him with Yako.

    Argon votes Yako. Tally is now:

    Spoiler :
    Unofficial Tally

    Voting (16):
    Yakostovian (5) - Csargo, Zack, Visorslash, JohannaK, Lord Argon
    Choxorn (3) - Snerk, Newyn, Synsensa
    LordArgon (3) - Tak, pzelda, Choxorn
    Visorslash (3) - Manasi, Monty, Yako
    Manasi (1) - Rask
    Csargo (1) - Tim


    Visor votes Choxorn. Then he votes Manasi. Syn complains that he's switching too much.

    Zelda returns to finally abandon Argon and vote Csargo. [Ed. Tim has been pushing Csargo for a few hours, so this fits well into the pocketing theory] But then he sees the tally and decides to vote Choxorn for the tie.

    Tally now:

    Spoiler :
    Unofficial Tally

    Voting (16):
    Yakostovian (4) - Csargo, Zack, JohannaK, Lord Argon
    Choxorn (4) - Snerk, Newyn, Synsensa, pzelda
    Visorslash (3) - Manasi, Monty, Yako
    LordArgon (2) - Tak, Choxorn
    Manasi (2) - Rask, Visorslash
    Csargo (1) - Tim


    Zelda speculated about Argon fake-claiming as mafia. Zelda is unsure about voting Choxorn, but Zack wagon is gone despite Zack's positioning on Yako being scummy. Zelda berates Yako for one of his questions to Visor during the whole Argon claim dispute, and this.

    Rask asks if this progression leaves Zelda in agreement with Zack on Yako. Zelda concurs and votes Yako.

    And this is really a weird thing to say, isn't it?: "I guess I'll have to change more of my reads if he flips red."

    Yako votes Chox to self-pres.

    Tak returns. He praises Zelda for trying to solve, and tells Yako he is inclined to believe Argon's claim. And so he unvotes Argon and never votes again that day. He says he'll be back by deadline and people should leave him suggestions on who to vote.

    Syn likes posts by Manasi calling Newyn an illegal sub and urging a Visor lynch.

    Chox votes Yako for self-pres.

    I point out that #1500 is Zelda pocketing Tim. [Ed. That's the Csargo vote above I editorialized on]

    I collate a list of Zelda quotes from a short block of time that I find odd. Zelda acknowledges that it could be a reason for suspicion but that it feels more right to him than consistency.

    Zack is annoyed by Zelda's suspicion. Zelda responds that he "changed his mind unless proven wrong" [sic]. Still thinks there is a power-scum. Rask is a candidate for interactions with Visor. "Tak? Maybe." Zelda wants to know why Zack put Tak in a unique tier. Zack explains. Zelda thinks Tak should be an easy read for Zack in light of the Org game. Still thinks Tak has a better chance of being town though.

    Zack votes Manasi and I do too. Then Choxorn does. Then Newyn does.

    Visor votes Zack. Then Manasi again.

    Zelda asks why Zack now wants Chox dead over Yako.

    Tally now:

    Spoiler :
    Voting (16):
    Manasi (6) - Rask, Visorslash, Zack, Monty, Choxorn, Newyn
    Yakostovian (4) - Csargo, JohannaK, Lord Argon, pzelda
    Choxorn (3) - Snerk, Synsensa, Yako
    Visorslash (1) - Manasi
    Csargo (1) - Tim

    Unvoted: Takh


    Expedited summary of EOD hour now

    Syn expresses shock at all the vote switching and activity. Refuses to do more tallies.

    Syn votes Zack, then Manasi within 2 minutes of each other for spiciness.

    Yako asks Visor why he's not scumreading him anymore. Syn quips that Yako shouldn't look a gift horse in a mouth. Yako thinks as a Mafia player he is compelled to question these events.

    Syn begs Tak to vote. Questions Manasi's last minute voting antics.

    Tak returns to say he has read ~220 posts. Swears he does not plan to vote at the last minute, and indeed casts no vote. Comments on the latest Yako-Syn interchange with "Ever heard of pocketing?" Responds to Syn's entreaty with "Hmm-mmm." And that's it for the day, other than commenting that when I place the decisive vote on Manasi I have taken it out of his hands.

    Final tally:

    Spoiler :
    Tally

    Voting (15):
    Manasi
    (6) - Rask, Zack, Visor, Syn, Chox, Monty
    Choxorn (5) - Snerk, , Yako, Tim, Manasi, Newyn
    Yakostovian (4) - Csargo, JohannaK, Lord Argon, pzelda

    Unvoted: Takh


    I hope I didn't make any errors, e.g. attributional, but I can't be sure.

    At any rate, I'm just dead-set on a Zelda-Tak tie for today. Ride or die.

    I did not get robbed. @LordArgon the heck were you doing last night?

    Submit your actions please.
     
  9. topsecret

    topsecret Believer

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    The first post has been updated with relevant information.
     
  10. Montmorency

    Montmorency King

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    Re: writeup flavor.

    I think Wario/Waluigi is the mastermind. Third party, perhaps, if he is a player character.

    Vote: Zelda
     
  11. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Quad B

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    <gasp>
     
    topsecret likes this.
  12. Newyn

    Newyn Prince

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    No one targetted me last night.
    Vote: Pzelda
     
  13. choxorn

    choxorn Watermelon Headcrab

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    Someone stole two coins from me last night.

    Vote: Pzelda
     
  14. JohannaK

    JohannaK Careless Whisperer

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    I targeted Csargo, thinking I would surely land a bonus. Alas, I did not.
     
  15. JohannaK

    JohannaK Careless Whisperer

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    Vote: Takhisis
     
  16. pzelda

    pzelda Prince

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    I did so for you questionable activity and because you claimed the amount. Other than that it was an almost random decision. My role is purely individualist and I don't see any way to bend it in a collective one. Even stealing coins from mafia doesn't help town. The only effect it has is overall bitterness of players of players I robbed and misleading results of various weaker informative roles.

    I'm really sorry for my reads being super messy this game. I put Yako as both extreme town and scum. For example. I think he's more likely town now again, but that doesn't make his d2 posts look any better. Also, I think that him not evaluating his claim after Rask's claim is a bad look. His hammer is a good look, but it could be an informated decision. If he's scum, someone else getting the cred wouldn't help him. It feels like too much tin foil, the tbh.
    I know that my reads were inconsistent this game, but you should also notice that I developed them based on new information and individual posts.
    Tak was top for two weak reasons. Now, he as the bottom of my pile. It's not because he's been mostly inactive since d2. It's because content of his posts isn't getting any better. One thing, which keeps me from calling him an outed scum are his interactions with Syn. Syn focused on Tak a lot. Most of his other early interactions were with dead towns. There's also early cross-voting, which smells of distancing. So, I don't really know. I think he has a better than average chance to flip wolf.
    Also, I'm really interested to see something from Zack today. 1)If Tak is scum, he should have been capable of catching him days ago (but this is wifomy meta tin foil). 2)He hasn't been pushing for anything for a while now. Him being busy could explain some of it, but overall it looks like there's lack of dedication.

    But I can't really blame him, I've been paying minimal attention as well.
    Chox and Argon still have a chance to flip wolf and I need to check the wagon on me for wolfy voters.
     
  17. RRRaskolnikov

    RRRaskolnikov Goldfish

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    vote: Takhisis

    vote: Raskolnikov



    Do you think a third party (independents) could take over as mafia if we catch Luigi?
     
  18. pzelda

    pzelda Prince

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    While admitting that my reads are mess, I need to add that any list I would try to make rn would suck as well. I have too many people, who have good things going for them and lack of obvious towniness combined.

    Snerk probably has been my only consistent tr since d1.
    Monty can't be scum, but there's some weirdness in his flavour solving and him ending on me despite outing Syn.
    Johanna just strikes me as town because I was able to follow her thought process, when reading the thread. Her actions and votes make sense from town perspective.

    A tier below probably sit Rask and Yako. I explained Yako earlier and I need to look at his posts to truly decide. Rask is overall Towny and solving and I think he's one of the most pro-town players and I'm not lynching him unless f3. There's something about his pushes what runs me the wrong way. His claim's good.
     
  19. RRRaskolnikov

    RRRaskolnikov Goldfish

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  20. pzelda

    pzelda Prince

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    Newyn prolly town based on evidence. That leaves me with pools of: Zack, Chox, Tak, Argon and Csargo.
     

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