[RD] Mass protests in Iran
- Thread starter caketastydelish
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amadeus
✻ Come on down! ✻
I thought so too until he threatened action if the Iranians executed that protestor. If a credible threat restricts the leadership from extreme retaliation, then it could be beneficial to the protestors in, for lack of a better way of putting it, a negative sense—it does not help them accomplish their goals, but could help prevent them from suffering terrible consequences.
Broken_Erika
Play with me.
Iran authorities demanding large sums for return of protesters' bodies, BBC told
Families of people killed in the protests in Iran have told the BBC that the authorities are demanding large sums of money to return their bodies for burial.Multiple sources have told BBC Persian that bodies are being held in mortuaries and hospitals and that security forces will not release them unless their relatives hand over money.
At least 2,435 people have been killed during more than two weeks of protests across the country.
One family in the northern city of Rasht told the BBC that security forces demanded 700 million tomans ($5,000; £3,700) to release the body of their loved one.
It was being held at the Poursina Hospital mortuary, along with at least 70 other dead protesters, they said.
Meanwhile in Tehran, the family of a Kurdish seasonal construction worker went to collect his body, only to be told they must pay a billion tomans ($7,000; £5,200) to receive it.
The family told the BBC that they could not afford the fee and were forced to leave without their son's body. A construction worker in Iran typically earns less than $100 a month.
In some cases, hospital staff have phoned the relatives of the dead to give them an advance warning to come and get the bodies before security forces can extort any funds.
BBC Persian has been told about a woman - who we are not identifying for her safety - who did not know her husband was killed until she received a phone call on 9 January on his phone from hospital staff.
They told her she should quickly come and collect his body before security forces arrived and demanded payment for its release.
BBC Persian was told about this situation by a London-based relative, who has spoken to her.
The woman then took her two children to the hospital to find her husband's body. She put it in the back of a pickup truck, and drove for seven hours to their hometown in western Iran to bury him.
"I rode in the back of the pickup truck, crying over his body for seven hours while my children sat in the front seat," she told her London relative.
BBC Persian has also received reports that officials at Tehran's Behesht-e Zahra mortuary are telling families that if they claim their child was a member of the Basij paramilitary force and was killed by protesters, the body will be released without charge.
The family member told the BBC in a message: "We were asked to participate in a pro-government rally and portray the body as that of a martyr. We did not agree to this."
In another case in Tehran, a source told BBC Persian that several families broke into a mortuary to retrieve bodies out of fear they would be taken away by the authorities.
"Several families, fearing that the authorities might keep the bodies or bury them without their knowledge, broke open the morgue door and pulled the bodies out of ambulances," the source told the BBC.
The families then guarded the bodies for several hours on the ground in the hospital courtyard to prevent them from being taken away until they could find private ambulances to transport them, the source said.
An internet and communications blackout has made it difficult to get a full picture of what is happening on the ground. International human-rights groups have no direct access to the country and, along with other international news organisations, the BBC is not allowed by the Iranian government to report on the ground.
Demonstrations began in the capital, Tehran, on 29 December, following a sharp fall in the value of the Iranian currency against the dollar. As the protests reached dozens of other towns and cities, they turned against Iran's clerical rulers and security forces launched a violent crackdown.
The protests escalated significantly last Thursday and were met with deadly force by authorities.
According to the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), at least 2,435 protesters have been killed since the unrest began, as well as 13 children and 153 people affiliated with the security forces or government. It reports that another 18,470 protesters have been arrested.
Meanwhile, arrests have continued across the country. Security forces and Revolutionary Guard intelligence units have detained activists, lawyers, and ordinary citizens.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g5md1n1yxo
Iran was concerned enough to close their airspace twice yesterday.
Iran reopens airspace after closure to most flights amid US attack threats
Airspace restrictions come amid fears that US President Donald Trump could attack Iran.
If Iran wants to escalate beyond closing the Persian Gulf to oil tankers, hmm.
They can load uranium or nuclear waste onto their ballistic missiles and shoot them at Israel to spread radiation.
Or try to attack Saudi oil fields.
Or try to assassinate Trump.
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caketastydelish
Deity
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Iran is backed into a corner geopolitically and is weaker than ever. Threats to assassinate Trump, etc are bluffs from a regime fighting for its life.
Assad- Gone.
Russia - Struggling in Ukraine.
Hezbollah - militarily weakened.
Hamas - Ditto.
Venezuela - Leader gone, possibly in the process of regime change and loss of oil and other assets.
None of this includes the domestic problems of citizens in revolt, which is significant. Attacking the Iranian military (the IRGC in particular) just might well be the final knockout punch. If Trump "making peace" is because he plans a sucker punch/surprise attack, I won't complain.
Assad- Gone.
Russia - Struggling in Ukraine.
Hezbollah - militarily weakened.
Hamas - Ditto.
Venezuela - Leader gone, possibly in the process of regime change and loss of oil and other assets.
None of this includes the domestic problems of citizens in revolt, which is significant. Attacking the Iranian military (the IRGC in particular) just might well be the final knockout punch. If Trump "making peace" is because he plans a sucker punch/surprise attack, I won't complain.
danjuno
Cole Phelps, Badge 1247
Doesn't matter; if Trump doesn't see an easy win like with blackbagging Maduro, he's going to hang you out to dry.
And you still haven't answered me regarding Libya.
caketastydelish
Deity
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I know nothing about Libya so I don't have an answer.
innonimatu
the resident Cassandra
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Trump may have that virtue: he backs off idiotic war plans when they very visibly failed already. Don't make things worse without any hope? That is sensible.
May because we have yet to see if another round of war happens or not. Postponed or cancelled entirely?*
There was nothing organic about what happened in Iran. It was orchestrated from outside. The israeli press wrote about their agents in Iran. The US also let stories about the use of the internet from oustide to coordinate attacks inside Iran be published, and how terrible it was when that portion of the plot was undone through jamming. I suspect the campagn simply failed for lack of popular uptake inside Iran and the pieces about "starlink jamming" are more propaganda to disguise the abject failute in instigating activities againts the iranian state machinery inside Iran.
The idea was to create a triumphant narrative that would justify a military attack: "just a little push to topple a failing regime". Just like Trump promised. A common theme of these "regime change" operations planned in Washington is fake news about the head of state of the targeted country having "fled to country x". That was done at the time of the invasion of Iraq, it was done at the time of the attack and destruction of Libya, it was done several times in Syria (only much, much latet did it actually happen), it was even deployed against Russia during that pathetic attempted insurrection by the mercenary company. A variant is "big bad dictation is dying from diseases x y z". When you see stories like those planted it's a sure sight that there's a state-coordinated campaign producing regime-change propaganda for dissemination in the mass media. Trace its origins: who are the "sources"?
Imo what made Trump back away was the quick defeat of all the agents that were activated inside Iran in the attempt to cause confusion among the authorities. That operation failed completely, which meant that Iran was and is ready to fight back in the event of being attacked. Which made the military risk of suffering losses and being humilitaed too big, agaisnt a payoff that was already zero (no change of suceeding in destroying Iran).
*If all the propaganda deployed inside the US and its vassal regions about "protests in iran" is quickly dropped now, then we know that the plot to have another go at war with Iran has been dropped, not just postponed.
caketastydelish
Deity
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That you said this wasn't organic and was just Israeli agents is all I need to know to realize you have no understanding of the situation. I'm very far from pro Israel but that is just nonsense.
Senethro
Overlord
You need to make up your mind on if your hated enemy is weak and has no resources, or if they are incompetent and waste/lose their resources in ineffective efforts.
r16
not deity
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one needs to look deep or whatever . A part of Trump's powerbase is this totally religious nutjob thing , expecting to use Israel as a battering ram . Israel is doing its utmost to cheat that part to maximum advantage before they fall on each other , hate and total extermination kind , across the political divide in Israel and Jews vs the rest , Evangelists leading . Moving Iran off the table will benefit Israel most definitely and as seen from the missile exchange thing last year , Trump will do his best to prevent that . Like although it is ideological to keep it pounding us mere mortals that Trump doesn't have a single braincell , he is not that dumb and if he had achieved what he had said he would have liked , this forum would have touted his very big heart and complained all day long on how traitors in the US Democrat ranks were working behind the scenes with Republican slime to sabotage stuff .
as the battering ram approaches the wall , the allies are uneasily watching their comrades in arms , looking for the exact moment to stab each other . Oh , the wall is one of those edifices that will crumble down with one kick on the door , too . Utter horror if they find nothing behind it plunder to distract the enemy while getting behind to stab in the back . Yeah , another crystal clear thing people will choose not to understand .
as the battering ram approaches the wall , the allies are uneasily watching their comrades in arms , looking for the exact moment to stab each other . Oh , the wall is one of those edifices that will crumble down with one kick on the door , too . Utter horror if they find nothing behind it plunder to distract the enemy while getting behind to stab in the back . Yeah , another crystal clear thing people will choose not to understand .
Bonyduck Campersang
Not staring into the distance
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This is such a cartoonish view of geopolitics. What does Iran gain from assassinating Trump? What does anyone gain from assassinating Trump? Except for the Republican party, who will gain a martyr to parade around
danjuno
Cole Phelps, Badge 1247
Then my point stands that US military intervention in the Middle East has always been a disaster before, so there is no reason to believe would work this time.
They gain revenge!
From last year:
Heck, the 2nd Iraq war might simply be Bush Jr. wanting revenge against Saddam for trying to revenge assassinate Bush Sr.
Not like Iraq had WMD.
Or was involved in 9/11.
caketastydelish
Deity
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Saddam Hussein was exactly the kind of Muslim ruler that Bin Laden hated. A secular authoritarian regime that represses Sharia Law. The Iraq war was built on pure lies but the accusations against the Iranian regime that they are massacring their own people are at least true.
banzay13
Emperor
Will be similar to Lybia
Here is the full article.
A Fractured Iran Might Not Be So Bad
Its borders are artificial, and a breakup would frustrate the interests of Russia, China and others.
You won’t hear your Iranian friends mention a distinctly probable outcome of the uprisings—the geographical fragmentation of that country. You don’t hear it from Reza Pahlavi, exiled son of the last shah and a key opposition figure. Nor do you hear it in the West’s corridors of power. That’s because the only halfway compelling argument the mullahs now possess for retaining power is the bogey of secession by ethnic regions.Ali Khamenei et al. would like nothing more than for a hostile power to articulate such a scenario, which they could cite as evidence of the true intentions of Iran’s dissidents and enemies. The regime could then divide the resistance between the Perso-Iranian nationalists and those representing other ethnic groups, which make up half the population.
Like many former empires, Iran’s borders were drawn rather arbitrarily with respect to sizable ethnic communities. To name the largest, some estimate the Turkic Azeris make up 25% of Iran’s population and Kurds 15% or so. The shape-shifting country was occupied by the czars and the British in the 19th century; the British stayed until after World War II and had a hand in delineating the oil-rich southern border with Iraq. That border was officially ratified by treaty only in 1975. With all that’s happened since, you can scarcely blame the ethnic minorities, certainly the larger ones, for wanting out with a view to joining their kin across borders. Being in Iran hasn’t vouchsafed them much happiness.
As things stand, there’s a distinct possibility of civil war after regime change as well as interference by outside interests. The Azeris of Iran eye their flourishing Turkic brethren in Azerbaijan with a degree of envy. Mr. Khamenei is part Azeri but hasn’t made Azeris’ lives any sweeter in an impoverished and kleptocratic Iran. Secession isn’t out of the question. Both Israel and Turkey have engaged closely with Baku to distract Iran from its Middle Eastern adventures and to create a stable rival that appeals to ethnic kin within Iran.
A pared-down Iran would pose a diminished risk to Israel. A larger state made up of united Azerbaijanis would help reopen the old Silk Road between Turkey and the Central Asian Turkic states, furnishing Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan with a triumph as his country seethes under an oligarchic economy suffering acute inflation (at times over 40% last year).
On the other hand, Mr. Erdoğan doesn’t want Iran to fall apart entirely, freeing up Kurds to secede and unite with their cross-border kin in Turkey to create a new state. Ankara reportedly aided Tehran to prevent this. Turkish media, mostly state-directed, takes a largely dim view of the uprising while the foreign minister has publicly denounced it as foreign-stoked.
The Russians want no regime change or splintering of Iran. The two countries constitute a geographical cork on Central Asia’s westward trade routes and pipelines. A change in Iran’s regime could liberate an entire region from Russia’s stranglehold along its vast southern border. Also, Iran’s Shahed factories supply drones for the Kremlin’s assaults on Ukraine.
As for Beijing losing investments and oil supplies from both Venezuela and Iran simultaneously, expect a sharp reaction from China. Already, unverified reports claim that Chinese tech is behind the disabling of Starlink’s contacts with the revolt.
Meanwhile, nobody outside Iran is providing arms to the populace as the regime mows them down mercilessly. For the sake of regional and world peace, the best option may be to help secession happen and thereby take a downsized Iran, freed from a murderous regime, off the geopolitical chessboard entirely.
Mr. Kaylan writes about culture and the arts for the Journal.
Iran's internet access (to outside the country) might be cut off permanently for the 92 million people living there. 
www.bbc.com
The internet for inside Iran might come back soon in severely restricted form?
Fears Iran's internet shutdown could lead to 'extreme digital isolation' - BBC News
Internet monitor FilterWatch warns that authorities are trying to cut the country off from international connectivity.
www.bbc.com
The internet for inside Iran might come back soon in severely restricted form?
r16
not deity
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ah , they are already talking of breaking Iran into 7 statelets and it will be good ! Really ? Ever heard of Armageddon and stuff ? Think the US Democrats will be watching from a distance and your next door nutjob sharpening his knives to cut your throat ? Oh , also to replace the Ihvan controlled New Turkey with Azeri dictatorship moving Westwards ? Hmmpf , glorious !
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