math showing Napoleon was the best general

As a military historian who has done some research on probably a significant percentage of the battles on his database, I can tell you there are serious problems with the data. For many battles, especially in the ancient/classical/medieval time periods, we don't have any reliable figures for total numbers involved or casualties suffered by both sides - or either side. In many cases, we know who thought they had won, but we don't know who actually did better on the battlefield - many subsequent accounts sound suspiciously like Propaganda rather than reliable accounts.

Even modern combats are not immune from data managing. I have read, for instance, both German and Russian/Soviet accounts of the same battle in WWII in which both sides claim to have been outnumbered, and can prove it statistically. In fact, both sets of statistics were wrong, but they were the basis for most accounts of the battle, so, if that was one of Wiki's list of battles, just about everything about the data from it was Bogus.

Most important, however, is the false notion that Battle is everything, that winning 'on the battlefield' is the sole criteria for military success. This is simply Not True. Napoleon may have won the great majority of his battles, but the ones he lost cost him his country, his crown, and his freedom.

The German military won more battles than they lost in both World Wars, but they lost both wars. Contrary to their own excuses, they were not overwhelmed by superior numbers, they were simply beaten at the strategic level, because they didn't concentrate on winning at that level, and that is the level where wars are won and lost.

When Dupuy's HERO Institute did a study of battles to test and compile their mathematical model for predicting battle outcomes, they used a database of 100 battles, because that was how many they could be certain of having enough valid data for - and even then the statistical data for many of the earlier battles was 'estimated' (read: guesswork). They did not even attempt to study the effects of generalship on the battles, just the 'combat power' of the opponents. Even so, they did come up with one pattern that emerged solidly from their data:

Throughout history, from 1500 BCE to 1973 CE, the one constant is that raw numbers of troops Do Not Matter.
That is, out of 100 test battles, the smaller army won most of them.

What that means, of course, is that factors other than numbers: leadership, morale, training, terrain, weather, - and yes, Generalship - all had more affect on victory or defeat than pure numbers of troops.
 
Did not the ancients already suggest to avoid pitched battles if at all possible since it is essentially a coin flop, decided by a myriad uncontrollable variables on a single afternoon ?

On the contrary someone like Napoleon was forever looking for a ”decisive victory”, that usually proves elusive..
 
As I mentioned elsewhere, he was on the losing side. It seems this upcoming Civ 7 will have a few of those leaders on the losing side. You can argue he won before he lost (twice), but the end result was the same. As mentioned above, the strategic result is all that matters. Tactically he may have been a genius, but he squandered what advantages France had (larger population being one of them). He probably did it for ego.

That said, I know they are looking for big personalities this game, and I understand that. So their successes aren't as important this time around. And Napoleon definitely fits the big personality bill. But I do wonder if they will ever get past using this leader in Civ games.
 
As I mentioned elsewhere, he was on the losing side. It seems this upcoming Civ 7 will have a few of those leaders on the losing side. You can argue he won before he lost (twice), but the end result was the same. As mentioned above, the strategic result is all that matters. Tactically he may have been a genius, but he squandered what advantages France had (larger population being one of them). He probably did it for ego.

That said, I know they are looking for big personalities this game, and I understand that. So their successes aren't as important this time around. And Napoleon definitely fits the big personality bill. But I do wonder if they will ever get past using this leader in Civ games.
While Napoleon didn't succeed in his strategic goals, his legacy for modern Europe is not to be underestimated. Many of his modern laws were retained in the conquered countries (and to this day in France herself). The values that came with his rule (which still carry a lot from the revolution) are still defining Europe to this day. His territorial reorganization is the ground floor on which modern Germany, Switzerland, and Spain (indirectly, as their colonial empire broke apart with Napoleon's conquest of the mainland) are built (not quite sure about Italy here). So, while you can say that he was on the losing side and are correct with that, there aren't many people in world history that influenced a whole continent for 200+ years (Charlemagne plays in the same league, of course). And while he personally is to be despised for sure, his lasting legacy, which a few centuries between the battles, terror, and us, seems quite a positive one.
 
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Also it was looking specifically at their tactical abilities as opposed to strategic ones.

Admittedly the poor data quality gives a big error factor…enough that the results aren’t really that useful.

Still don’t know why they didn’t adjust for number of battles though.
 
Because then the ideal commander would be one that fought zero battles but still won the war ;)
But they didn’t measure wars, only battles so 0 battles means you aren’t measured.

If you only fought one battle and won it against incredible odds then it could be misleading due to luck….but a slightly above average tactical skill general who fought a lot of battles would get more score than a highly skilled general who fought one. (the best score they could achieve would be <1)

Extra battles should just reduce the error bars (which are admittedly massive)
 
Did not the ancients already suggest to avoid pitched battles if at all possible since it is essentially a coin flop, decided by a myriad uncontrollable variables on a single afternoon ?

On the contrary someone like Napoleon was forever looking for a ”decisive victory”, that usually proves elusive..
It ran in cycles.

Sun Tzu said the highest (best) victory was to compell your enemy to your will without fighting - basically, maneuver him into a position where he either surrendered or fought a battle with no chance of winning.

This was also the attitude of most European forces in the 17th and early 18th century- maneuver the enemy out of his positions instead of trying to storm them. In that case, it was because troops were so expensive to recruit and train and maintain that nobody wanted the extra expense of having to replace battle losses.

The Greeks and Romans both marched straight into battle as fast and as often as they could. In the Greek case, it was because most Hoplites were farmers who had to get this whole 'war' thing over with and get back to farming. In the Romans' case it was because they were better at winning battles than anybody else west of central Asia, so it made sense to get it all over with immediately.

Individual Generals had different attitudes. Turenne of France as probably one of the best 'maneuver' generals who ever lived: he consistently put his enemies into impossible situations where they just gave up and retreated rather than try to fight him. Frederick the Great and most American and German generals are aleays looking for a Knock Out in battle: hit the enemy as soon as you can as hard as you can, and destroy him before anything else happens. When this works (as in France in 1870 and 1940) it wins the war. When it doesn't work (as in France 1914) it all too often loses or prolongs the war - always a gamble.
 
Something something the only winning move is to not play
Again, from someone who knew exactly what he was talking about:

" . . .next to a battle lost, the greatest misery is a battle won."

- Arthur Wellesley, Duke of Wellington, 1815.
 
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