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Math with random numbers

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Souron, Aug 20, 2005.

  1. Souron

    Souron The Dark Lord

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    In Excel Code:
    is this:
    =ROUNDUP(RAND()*6,0)
    Equal to this:
    =ROUNDUP(RAND()*3,0)+IF(ROUNDUP(RAND()*2,0)>1,3,0)

    In words:
    If you take a random integer out of the set {1,2,3} and add a random integer out of the set {0,3}, will there be an equal probability of getting each possible result?

    Yes or no, and how do you know?

    If anybody wishes to reword my question into some other form or phrasing so that others may understand it better, that would be helpful.
     
  2. DBear

    DBear unbeliever

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    No. Random (6..0) will have each number come up with equal chance. 1/6 for 1, 1/6 for 2, etc.
    Your second option. (1,3) + (0,3) will get a result similar to rolling dice. There are 12 possibilities. 1/12 for 1, 2/12 for 2 (1,1) or (2,0) , 3/12 for 3, 3/12 for 4, 2/12 for 5, 1/12 for 6. Instead of a linear distribution as in the first example, you have a binomial distribution.

    [edit] errr...nevermind. Misunderstood the question :blush:
     
  3. Souron

    Souron The Dark Lord

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    (1,1) is not a valid possiblility. The second value(the value added) must be either 0 or 3.
     
  4. Mise

    Mise isle of lucy

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    Yes, it should be the same. Not sure how to explain why though...

    EDIT: ok i'll have a go...

    Basically you're asking two separate questions:
    1) pick a random number between 1 and 3
    OR
    2) pick a random number between 4 and 6

    the probability of (1) or (2) happening is equal, and the probability within (1) and (2) is equal for all outcomes, therefore the probability of getting the number is the same for each number.

    (it's far too late for me to be explaining this sort of thing :crazyeye: sorry if it makes no sense)
     
  5. Souron

    Souron The Dark Lord

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    I get it, thank you.
     
  6. Souron

    Souron The Dark Lord

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    Wait, So there is no way to prove that without testing each possible value combination?
     
  7. SonicX

    SonicX Emperor

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    A : ROUNDUP(RAND()*6,0) gives : {1,2,3,4,5,6} with a 1/6 chance of each.
    B : ROUNDUP(RAND()*3,0) gives : {1,2,3} with a 1/3 chance of each.
    C :IF(ROUNDUP(RAND()*2,0)>1,3,0) : gives {0,3} with a 1/2 chance of each.
    B+C gives {1,2,3} + {0,3} with even chances, so {1,2,3,4,5,6} with a 1/6 chance for each.

    Seems normal ?
     
  8. Gyathaar

    Gyathaar Warlock Retired Moderator GOTM Staff

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    depends.. I am not familiar with excel functions.. does RAND() return a number x so that:
    a) 0 < x <= 1
    or
    b) 0 <= x < 1

    if case b, then there is a slightly bigger chance of getting 0 than 3 in the 2nd part on the last function
     
  9. SonicX

    SonicX Emperor

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    That is irrelevant is the numbers after the comma are high.
     
  10. Gyathaar

    Gyathaar Warlock Retired Moderator GOTM Staff

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    Oops.. I missed the roundup.. that actually gives that case a gives higher chance for 3 than 0..
    why? because if rand() can be 1, then roundup(rand()*2.0) then be 1, 2 or 3
     
  11. SonicX

    SonicX Emperor

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    No, ]0,1] will give 1 and ]1,2] will give 2. Only the 0,000 causes a slight imbalance, but that's because the total possible numbers is always a tenfold +1 (11, 101, 1001 and so on, depending on the numbers of decimals)
     
  12. Mise

    Mise isle of lucy

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    Well I don't know if there's a formal proof, but what I said was a proof of sorts that didn't require any testing. The numbers could have been A to B and B+1 to B+B and it would give the same probability distribution as doing A to B+B.
     
  13. Yaniv

    Yaniv Prince

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    The two are the same. Probibility is my favorite subject so I have no trouble with this problem.

    In order to get the value 1, you need to get 1 from the first set (probiblity of 1/3) and 0 in the second set (probiblity of 1/2) : 1/3*1/2 = 1/6

    In order to get the value 2, you need to get 1 from the first set (probiblity of 1/3) and 0 in the second set (probiblity of 1/2) : 1/3*1/2 = 1/6
    .
    .
    .
    In order to get the value 6, you need to get 3 from the first set (probiblity of 1/3) and 3 in the second set (probiblity of 1/2) : 1/3*1/2 = 1/6

    In other words, each of the six numbers has 1/6 option of being picked.
    And all together the probability adds up to 1, exactly like it should. :)
     

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