Bianca's Fake Claim Rube Goldberged town staying in the game
Now don't get me wrong, you seriously don't claim a PR in the middle of the night, especially in that situation: it's generally better for town to say silent because it's better for mafia to follow the same pattern that mafia does
So before Bianca's claim the actions set were:
Syn: Shoot TS
Ran: Protect self
Mafia: Not set, but definetely a kill on Synsensa which would make Ran's protection irrelevant
Now this series of actions leads to a 2v2, and a town loss everytime
However, as soon as Bianca claimed we see the actions shift to
Syn: Shoot TS
Ran: Protect self
Mafia: Kill Syn, Roleblock Bianca
This situation, of course, still ends with a town loss at day start, however Ran being counterclaimed by Bianca was inevitible and did occur
Now let me explain why Ran's counterclaim was inevitible, and, more importantly, why it could not wait until the day cycle: the cost benefit analysis will show that Bianca is far more likely to be mafia fakeclaiming:
With Bianca claiming to be town doctor, as a townie, then the roleblock would go on her: This would allow the doctor to act unimpeded, and more importantly, gain town a miselim in conjunction with Synsensa's vig shot (note that a Syn fakeclaim is not a strong possibility here from a neutral pov), whether or not it hits town.. However, given that it's 4v2, mafia only had a 1/3 chance of blocking Ran anyway, which leads to a 1/3 chance of allowing a protect to go through, on top of a 1/4 chance (I'm probs being generous?)of actually getting the kill target right. Bottom line, less than a 10% chance of town gaining a miselim.
However, Ran couldn't wait for day. Why? because fakeclaiming as mafia is so much better: If Bianca is mafia she moves the chances of mafia being hit from 40% to 25%, which leads to an increase of 15% of winning the game on that day then and there.
Of course, both of these scenarios rely on the real doc not claiming, but it's so much better for mafia to fakeclaim in the middle of the night
However, Ran's CC causes mafia to split the roleblock and the kill between Bianca and Ran, and bam! Ran gets that protection on herself that she and town need to continue the game. If it's split the other way then Syn and maf have their kills cross
Now don't get me wrong, you seriously don't claim a PR in the middle of the night, especially in that situation: it's generally better for town to say silent because it's better for mafia to follow the same pattern that mafia does
So before Bianca's claim the actions set were:
Syn: Shoot TS
Ran: Protect self
Mafia: Not set, but definetely a kill on Synsensa which would make Ran's protection irrelevant
Now this series of actions leads to a 2v2, and a town loss everytime
However, as soon as Bianca claimed we see the actions shift to
Syn: Shoot TS
Ran: Protect self
Mafia: Kill Syn, Roleblock Bianca
This situation, of course, still ends with a town loss at day start, however Ran being counterclaimed by Bianca was inevitible and did occur
Now let me explain why Ran's counterclaim was inevitible, and, more importantly, why it could not wait until the day cycle: the cost benefit analysis will show that Bianca is far more likely to be mafia fakeclaiming:
With Bianca claiming to be town doctor, as a townie, then the roleblock would go on her: This would allow the doctor to act unimpeded, and more importantly, gain town a miselim in conjunction with Synsensa's vig shot (note that a Syn fakeclaim is not a strong possibility here from a neutral pov), whether or not it hits town.. However, given that it's 4v2, mafia only had a 1/3 chance of blocking Ran anyway, which leads to a 1/3 chance of allowing a protect to go through, on top of a 1/4 chance (I'm probs being generous?)of actually getting the kill target right. Bottom line, less than a 10% chance of town gaining a miselim.
However, Ran couldn't wait for day. Why? because fakeclaiming as mafia is so much better: If Bianca is mafia she moves the chances of mafia being hit from 40% to 25%, which leads to an increase of 15% of winning the game on that day then and there.
Of course, both of these scenarios rely on the real doc not claiming, but it's so much better for mafia to fakeclaim in the middle of the night
However, Ran's CC causes mafia to split the roleblock and the kill between Bianca and Ran, and bam! Ran gets that protection on herself that she and town need to continue the game. If it's split the other way then Syn and maf have their kills cross
