I didn't have any settlers lined up because I was making axemen to rush Pacal. I am also cautios with Espionage on marathon speed cos I read a BTS review where the reviewer said Espionage makes the game useless on marathon speed because the AI will find out everything about you.
Well, what's your build order? Are you building a worker first to improve your food tiles for your city to grow quickly? (Same mistake I used to make not too long ago

) What I learnt was worker first, then most of the time, build warriors till size 4/5 (or even 3 in some cases) and start pumping out worker-settler-worker-settler, etc.. until your economy drops or you have enough cities for the time being. I don't think being in the red zone right in the beginning should matter too much, I've barely seen anyone declare war on me whilst I've been playing Noble in the early game. Plus, if you have 1 city, building up some defence will take forever, but if you have say 6 cities each building a defence unit, that's much more faster I'd imagine.
1) Settle in default spot (Capital quality city) and set Warrior to explore in a direction.
2) Build warrior in city and set him to explore automatically. (or manually if I see a promising spot)
3)Build scout (cos I have hunting by now) and set him to explore.
4) Build another scout and set him to explore.
5) Build worker.
6)Build Barracks.
7) Build archer.
8) Build Archer.
9) Build 2nd worker.
10) Chops woods and and send out settler.
I leave the 2nd city idle for long while I improve my first city with my workers, which I know is wrong. (hence me here.)
I think I picked up the fondness for exploring earlier on from Zara Yaqob (Ethiopia) which is my main civ. He has hunting as a starting technology, so I would with him:
1) Settle city and set scout to explore automatically.
2) Build 1st scout in city. (explore automatically) (15 turns, sometimes 10.)
3) Build 2nd scout in city. (explore automatically) (25 turns)
4) Build 4th scout. (explore automatically) (35 turns)
I did this because I would get loads of goody huts. I would sometimes get 3 free technologies and 1,700 gold off goody huts. That is more than likely why I choose to explore.