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Natural Disasters: Oh, does my native land love to kill...

Couple of edits:

GIF of one of the Hurricane Hunter circling around the eye, trying to find a way out.


53rd WRS plane experienced severe turbulence. This is the second time I've heard of severe enough turbulence to have a Hurricane Hunter to turn around.



COD-GOES-East-meso-meso1.14.20251028.152424-over=map-glm_flash-bars=acht.gif
 
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The storm does not yet seem to be getting significantly weakened by interaction with the land of Jamaica.
 
Landfall

ZCZC MIATCUAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Melissa Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
100 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025

...CATEGORY 5 MELISSA MAKES LANDFALL IN JAMAICA...
...ONE OF THE MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE LANDFALLS ON RECORD IN THE
ATLANTIC BASIN...

Melissa has made landfall in southwestern Jamaica near New Hope with
estimated maximum sustained winds of 185 mph (295 km/h) and an
estimated minimum central pressure of 892 mb (26.34 inches).

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION! Do
not leave your shelter as the eye passes over, as winds will
quickly, and rapidly increase on the other side of the eye.
Residents should remain in place through the passage of these
life-threatening conditions. To protect yourself from wind, the
best thing you can do is put as many walls as possible between you
and the outside. An interior room without windows, ideally one where
you can also avoid falling trees, is the safest place you can be in
a building. You can cover yourself with a mattress and wear a
helmet for added protection.

The next position update will be provided with the intermediate
advisory at 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 100 PM EDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 78.0W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...892 MB...26.34 INCHES


$$
Forecaster Kelly


NNNN
 
Latest update (1800 GMT) has it at 899 mb and 165mph winds, a 20mph drop from the peak "official" wind speed. This is good news.
 
Hurricanes are weird.

You can see the eye shrink down to almost nothing at 245PM ET in this live video's bottom-left timestamp.

 
Hurricanes are weird.

You can see the eye shrink down to almost nothing at 245PM ET in this live video's bottom-left timestamp.

Not necessarily. All of the Antillies except western Cuba are mountainous and for the larger islands tropical cyclones will have their inner core torn up by the high elevations.

The best explanation I can give is if you started a whirlpool in a circular swimming pool and then put a large piece of wood or metal into the center (without losing your grip on it), the vortex is going to start screwing up. It may not stop, but it will be much weaker.

With Melissa, it's inner core being torn up makes it harder to reintensify. Let's hope the few short hours over water aren't enough time to reintensify too quickly.

Also, the NHC says the obvious in their 5 pm discussion that there's going to need to be extensive study on the storm to see if the storm was stronger or weaker at landfall.

It should be noted that while Melissa's landfall intensity is among the strongest ever recorded in the Atlantic basin, it will take extensive post-analysis to determine exactly where it ranks among landfalling Atlantic hurricanes.
 
Trump needs to take a plane load of paper towels to Jamaica to help with the cleanup.
 
Landfall in Cuba

000
WTNT63 KNHC 290710
TCUAT3

Hurricane Melissa Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
310 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MELISSA MAKES LANDFALL ON THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA...

Satellite and radar imagery indicate that Melissa has made landfall
in the Cuban province of Santiago de Cuba near the city of Chivirico
at 310 AM EDT (0710 UTC) with maximum sustained winds near 120 mph
(195 km/h). The minimum central pressure estimated from the earlier
reconnaissance data is 952 mb (28.12 inches).


SUMMARY OF 310 AM EDT...0710 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 76.1W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM E OF CHIVIRICO CUBA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM WSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Reinhart
 
Trump needs to take a plane load of paper towels to Jamaica to help with the cleanup.

No, the next category 5, Trump should fly into the eyewall. The hurricane will respect his authority as President
 
Bermuda now expecting Melissa to make impacts.

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 33...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025

Corrected surge totals for the Bahamas

...MELISSA NOW OFFSHORE OF EAST CUBA IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...
...DAMAGING WINDS, FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE FOR CUBA, BAHAMAS, AND A
DANGEROUS STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 75.6W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM S OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
ABOUT 1005 MI...1615 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Bermuda has issued a Hurricane
Warning for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo,
Holguin, and Las Tunas
* Southeastern and Central Bahamas
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* Turks and Caicos Islands
 
Death toll passes 900 in Indonesia, Thailand and Sri Lanka floods

Authorities in Sri Lanka, Indonesia and Thailand are racing to clear debris and find hundreds of missing people after more than 900 died in devastating floods and landslides across the south of Asia.

In the latest example of the impact of the climate crisis on storm patterns and extreme weather, heavy monsoon rains, exacerbated by a tropical storm, have overwhelmed parts of south-east Asia in recent days, leaving thousands of people stranded without shelter or critical supplies.

Meanwhile, in Sri Lanka in south Asia, the death toll from floods and landslides caused by Cyclone Ditwah rose sharply on Sunday to 334, with many more still missing and low-lying areas of the capital, Colombo, under water, authorities said.

It is the worst natural disaster to hit the island in two decades since the devastating 2004 tsunami that killed about 31,000 people there and left more than a million homeless.

In Indonesia, officials said more than 442 people had died and a further 402 were missing as authorities attempted to reach some of the hardest-hit areas of Sumatra island, where thousands of people were stranded without critical supplies.

In Thailand, where at least 162 people were killed in one of the worst floods in a decade, authorities continued to deliver aid and clear the damage. Relief measures rolled out by the Thai government include compensation for households that lost family members. But there has been growing public criticism of Thailand’s flood response, and two local officials have been suspended over their alleged failures.

In Sri Lanka’s capital on Sunday low-lying areas were flooded after a powerful cyclone brought heavy rains that triggered mudslides across the island, killing hundreds and leaving many more missing. Nearly 148,000 people have been displaced and are housed in temporary shelters.

Authorities say that Cyclone Ditwah, which developed in the sea east of Sri Lanka, is likely to move toward India’s southern coast on Sunday.

2724.jpg
 
One million people evacuated in Indonesia as death toll from floods surpasses 600

The death toll from flooding and landslides across Indonesia’s Sumatra island has risen to 631, the country’s disaster agency said, as one million people were evacuated from high-risk areas.

In Indonesia alone, 3.2 million people have been affected by the floods, while 2,600 have been injured and 472 people remain missing.

Aid workers and response teams are racing to reach survivors, but have been hampered by blocked roads and broken bridges, and some areas of northern Sumatra remain inaccessible by road.

In Aceh, one of the hardest hit areas, markets are running out of rice, vegetables and other essentials, and prices have tripled, according to Islamic Relief, which is sending 12 tons of emergency food aid. “Communities across Aceh are at severe risk of food shortages and hunger if supply lines are not re-established in the next seven days,” the charity said.

Survivors, many of whom are staying in evacuation shelters, have described how powerful currents of water arrived rapidly and submerged villages. “We didn’t think we would survive that night because the situation was so chaotic. Everyone was thinking about saving themselves. There was no prior warning whatsoever before the water came,” said Gahitsa Zahira Cahyani, 17, a student at an Islamic boarding school. Hundreds of students from the school ran out in the night to flee to safety, some of them clinging to trees and the mosque’s roof.

‘We have to rebuild from scratch’: Sri Lankans relive the devastation of Cyclone Ditwah

The scale of the damage caused by Cyclone Ditwah is still unclear, but in a speech on Sunday night, Sri Lanka’s president, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, described it as the “largest and most challenging natural disaster in our history”. Villages across the island were decimated and many homes, schools and businesses still remained under water on Monday, including across the capital Colombo. Helicopters were dispatched to the worst-affected areas to try to drop food and other essential supplies to those stranded.

According to the country’s Disaster Management Centre, more than 1.1 million people had been affected by the cyclone’s impact. As the country’s emergency and rescue services were overwhelmed, the military was deployed to help rescue efforts.

The damage wrought on Sri Lanka was particularly devastating for the island of 22 million people, which is still recovering from economic collapse in 2022 that left the country bankrupt and restricted access to even basic foods and medicine. Sri Lanka also relies heavily on western tourism as a vital source of income and the industry seems likely to have been hit hard by the impact of the cyclone.
 
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