Naval wargames in the Bay of Bengal, global alliance,new Cold War, Asian geopolitics,

[silver 2039]

India a partner in global naval alliance: US

BAY OF BENGAL: The United States hopes to build an alliance with friendly navies such as India's to form a global force of 1,000 ships and boost maritime security, a top US naval commander said on Friday.

But Washington's naval cooperation with New Delhi is not intended to send a signal to Beijing and the US navy was not looking to build a base in the Indian Ocean region, Vice-Admiral Doug Crowder said.

The comments by Crowder, commander of the Seventh Fleet, came midway through war games involving five nations, led by the United States and India, in the Bay of Bengal, one of the biggest such peacetime exercises which has raised the hackles of China.

"We all have common interests in keeping the oceans of the world open, free for commerce," Crowder told reporters on board the US aircraft carrier Kitty Hawk. "But the United States navy just isn't large enough to do that."

"We have to find common cause and every nation's sovereignty is protected. They join us for those missions they have a common interest in ... anti-piracy, humanitarian relief, security of the sea lanes."

The six-day war games which began on Tuesday, involving nearly 30 ships and over 100 aircraft, is the latest in a series called the Malabar Exercise, first held in the mid-1990s between Indian and US forces.

India's navy now has around 140 ships, compared with about 280 in the US navy. This year the drill has been expanded to include a few ships from Australia, Japan and Singapore in what some analysts see as a new alliance of democracies ranged against the growing military might of China.

Although top officials from countries involved in the war games have assured Beijing that it is not the focus of the exercise, China remains concerned by what it sees as a new security alliance that aims to encircle it.

Crowder sought to once again underplay the strategic significance of the war games, held not far from a Myanmar island where China is believed to have a military listening post. "This was not put together as a signal against anyone," Crowder said. Relations between Washington and New Delhi, on opposite sides of the Cold War, have blossomed since the turn of the last century.

As India's military, the world's fourth largest, goes on a modernising spree, it stood to gain from the United States, Indian officers said. "We cannot be like frogs in the well and think that we know everything," said Indian Vice-Admiral Raman Prem Suthan.

"It's a changing world and we are looking at professional interaction." While Suthan also tried to sidestep the political undertones of the war games, analysts said there was no mistaking their strategic underpinning. The drill coincides with a summit of Asia-Pacific leaders in Sydney this week and a trilateral security dialogue on its sidelines between US President George W. Bush, Australian Prime Minister John Howard and Japanese premier Shinzo Abe.

China acquiring muscle in Asia

China, which views the Malabar exercise as a step towards the creation of an Asian Nato, has formed the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) with Russia and energy-rich central Asian nations. The organisation is aimed at building an axis that will give control of Central Asian energy reserves to Russia and China, which in turn will give Beijing a lot of muscle in Asia.

So, is our neighbourhood suddenly getting a lot more dangerous? Is Asia feeling the chill of a new cold war? Although experts rule out the possibility of open warfare in Asia, some of them anticipate a ''cold peace'' descending on the region, marked by new economic and strategic alliances - in short, new faultlines that will define the new millennium's Great Game in Asia.

Some Asian countries are still undecided which way to go. So, states like South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam are sitting on the fence, quietly calculating the gains on either side. They are waiting and watching the Great Game unfold before they chip in - which way, no one is sure at the moment. The Left will argue that given the way the new strategic partnerships are panning out, the Indo-US nuclear deal isn't a mere energy or technology pact but as a grand design on the part of the US to suck India into an alliance that will be ranged against China and give the US the kind of leverage in the region that it doesn't enjoy right now.

So, is the Left right? Not necessarily, as warfare is ruled out. Analysts say the world has become much more inter-dependent and strategically complex than the black-and-white shades of the Cold War era. For instance, Russia is a key member of SCO but has a warm relationship with India. Japan may bristle politically at Beijing but China is Tokyo's closest economic partner. Ditto for Australia, which is as strong an economic partner of China as it is a military partner of the US. What countries are today looking for is not just military might but back-up support for sustaining their economic growth. At one level, economic ties among all Asian powers are booming, but at another no one is willing to put all their eggs into one friendly basket. Especially, when it comes to the real lubricant of economic growth, energy - a resource that is finite.

The quest for energy, say analysts, is also forging new friendships and fashioning fresh alliances. This is not just about the Indo-US N-deal, but about China's sudden bonhomie with Russia - with whom it has had an iffy relationship - which analysts say is aimed at limiting American influence in Central Asia, the world's most important new source of oil and natural gas.

Many believe that after 9/11, the US used terrorism as a reason to entrench itself in central Asia, but it's strategic goal was to check China and Russia and keep its footprint in the oil bazaar there. And the SCO is the counter. The SCO asked foreign powers to clear out of Central Asia in 2005, denied US observer status, and set up an energy club in 2007. And it hopes to control pipeline development in the region.

The quadrilateral or just the Quad - of US, Australia, Japan and India (Singapore is an additional member in Malabar 07) - is founded on different felt needs. It's ostensibly aimed against piracy in Malacca Straits, among the busiest waterways in the world. But it has to do with energy security, because a quarter of the world's oil passes through the straits, and disruption would cripple Japan, China and South Korea. Also, proliferating missiles (from China) also passes through this route, and they can perhaps be discouraged.

China has done its own containment strategy - the 'string of pearls' - by building military bases in Myanmar, Thailand and Cambodia, all close to the Malacca Strait. India, however, fears that this string of pearls can become an iron necklace around it. China is also building a huge container port in Sri Lanka. In the west, it is building a deep port in Pakistan. What is India's interest in all this? Energy requirements - both oil and nuclear-based - apart, India is possibly heeding the argument that China is growing far too fast and furiously to remain a peaceful power - if not warlike, it might get too aggressive for comfort. Also, it probably wants a say in whether Asia remains a multipower or a single-power continent.

As big powers play in Asia, where does India stand?

Over a period of roughly a hundred years, between 1813 and 1907, the British and Russian empires were locked in a strategic conflict for supremacy over Central Asia. The Great Game, as it came to be called, captured popular imagination with Rudyard Kipling’s classic novel Kim in 1901.

A hundred years later, another Great Game appears to be unfolding in Asia, and it’s sending a chill through the continent. Ranged on one side are China and Russia, and on the other, US and Japan. If the ongoing military exercise in the Bay of Bengal — dubbed Malabar 07 — is any indication, India by virtue of its participation alongside the US, Japan, Australia and Singapore, is being drawn into an alliance aimed at containing China. Or, so say those who see Malabar and the nuclear deal as proof of Delhi’s growing proximity to Washington.

Malabar 07, a six-day joint naval exercise (September 4-9) involving 25 warships, is at least for the record aimed at countering piracy and terrorism. But just as the US formed Nato (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) post World War II by drawing western European nations into an anti-Soviet Union alliance, Beijing views Malabar as a step towards the creation of an Asian Nato to counter China’s growing economic, military and strategic influence.

China’s making its own moves. It’s formed an innocuous-sounding alliance, the Shanghai Cooperation
Organisation (SCO) with Russia and energy-rich central Asian nations of Kazhakstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Last month, SCO put their military and air combat operations on display with a major military drill in China’s Xinjiang province and Russia’s Cherbakul mountains. The ostensible purpose of this war game was to counter terrorism in the region.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...bal_naval_alliance_US/articleshow/2348627.cms
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/India/China_acquiring_muscle_in_Asia/articleshow/2345515.cms
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...here_does_India_stand/articleshow/2345454.cms

So what are your thoughts on all this? Is this really a new Cold War and a power struggle between India and China? Is there going to be two big power blocs in Asia now?
What will happen to India's and China's superpower aspirations? And Russia's too for that matter?

Any thoughts?

 

[Masquerouge]

I find the idea of a cold war between China and India an interesting and plausible one.

Open conflict would be devastating to both, yet there is a clear advantage at gaining power and influence over the other Asian nations.

I don't see Russia as a serious contender unless it somehow manages to completely overhaul its economy, but Japan I think will have to become more active and more influent if it does not want to completely vanish from the scene.

 

[silver 2039]

Major naval drill kicks off in Indian Ocean
4 Sep 2007, 1310 hrs IST,AFP

PORT BLAIR: A massive naval drill started in the Indian Ocean on Tuesday with warships from the United States and four other nations flexing their muscle in one of the world's busiest shipping lanes.

Twenty-seven ships and submarines from the United States, Australia, Japan and Singapore will join seven from host India off the Andamans archipelago in the Bay of Bengal for the six-day manoeuvres, officials said.

It will be one of the biggest ever peacetime joint military exercises, including anti-piracy, reconnaissance and rescue missions besides honing inter-operability or coordination skills between the navies of the four nations, Indian Navy spokesman Vinay Garg said.

The exercise, stretching from India's eastern coast to the Andamans near Indonesia, will include super-carriers USS Nimitz and USS Kitty Hawk of the US Navy's Pacific fleet and India's lone aircraft carrier, the INS Viraat.

The international exercises, codenamed Malabar, are facing stiff resistance from anti-US Left parties, who denounced them as proof of "India's growing subservience to the United States."

The Left parties, who prop up the government in parliament, also oppose a landmark Indo-US civilian nuclear energy deal to bring New Delhi back into the loop of global atomic commerce after decades in the nuclear wilderness.

The exercises -- the 13th to be held since 1995 -- will spill into the Malacca Strait, a 805-kilometre strip between Malaysia and Sumatra.

The renowned shipping lane accounts for 60 percent of the world's maritime energy transport.

India had opposed the United States during the Cold War, has denied claims that the exercise is aimed at intimidating neighbouring giant China, with which the country fought a brief border war more than four decades ago.

"This is simply directed at ensuring security of the sea lanes of communication," Minister of State for Defence Pallam Raju said.

In the past, India has held exercises with navies from Britain, France, Russia, Singapore and Vietnam. A tri-nation event involving Brazil, India and South Africa is likely to be held in May 2008.

The nuclear-armed Indian navy, which operates 137 ships, wants its supremacy in the region unchallenged and during the 2004 tsunami it rebuffed US offers of aid and sent out relief ships to ravaged Sri Lanka and Indonesia.

Experts said India cannot afford to abstain from joint exercises due to the strategic importance of the sea lanes.

"Reluctance to participate in joint naval manoeuvres sends wrong signals to countries that share common interests," said retired Rear Admiral Raja Menon.

The latest drill is the second Malabar exercise since April 2006 when the Indian and US navies met off the Japanese coast of Yokosuka.

Sri Lanka, which is battling a Tamil separatist revolt, has welcomed the exercises saying they would bolster maritime military cooperation in the troubled Bay waters infested with pirates and Tamil Tiger arms smugglers.

"Whatever activity is taking place, if that strengthens international trade and commerce through the high seas, it's something intrinsically welcome to us," Sri Lankan Ambassador to India C R Jayasinghe told reporters.

Military industry sources said the event would also give US and other nations a chance to showcase their newest armaments to India's navy which is on a shopping spree for more hardware.

"The navy has been on a shopping binge since it abandoned its doctrine of coastal protection and embraced an aggressive policy of bluewater expansion," analyst Sujoy Banerjee said.

The navy plans to lease a 12,000-tonne Russian nuclear-powered submarine next year and hopes to acquire five more such vessels.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...s_off_in_Indian_Ocean/articleshow/2336668.cms

So India clearly intends domination of the region, plus with its naval armaments and a blue water navy complete with nuclear subs and aircraft carriers something China lacks, India has power projection abilities. At any rate this is quite intreasting how this will pan out.

WASHINGTON: The ongoing naval wargame in the Bay of Bengal involving five nations does not "target" China but is designed to shape strategic choices by regional actors like India, a senior Pentagon official has said.

"This exercise does not target China. It is designed to shape strategic choices being made by all regional actors. Malabar is a sign of responsible stakeholders interested in promoting peace and security by a visible presence," said Brigadier General John Toolan, Principal Director for South and South East Asia at the US Department of Defence.

The four-day 'Malabar Exercise' started on September 4 with the participation of warships from five countries -- India, Australia, Japan, Singapore and the US.

"US and Indian cooperation does not seek to contain China. India, and the countries engaged in this naval exercise, would not stand for this," Toolan said at a meeting on Capitol Hill organised by the Indian American Security Leadership Council.

The senior official said the "unique" relationship between India and the US would not be defined by a treaty due to overlapping interests and shared value systems, and added that Washington would like to see its evolving ties with New Delhi transform into something it has with key allies like Britain, Australia and Japan.

"Our relationship with India is unique, and unlikely to be defined by a treaty alliance. The US is confident that, by virtue of our overlapping interests and shared value systems, the US and Indian strategic partnership will deepen organically, without requiring a treaty," Toolan said.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...imed_at_China_says_US/articleshow/2345186.cms

So the US is clearly intreasted in an alliance with India. Historically however India has always been more friendly to the Soviet Union and Russia than the US. The US is deeply disliked and distrusted by the Left parties which could pull their support of the current colation government making it fall if they wanted to. Already the nuke deal has pissed them off. Now this too.

 

[joycem10]

"We cannot be like frogs in the well and think that we know everything," said Indian Vice-Admiral Raman Prem Suthan.

Is this some sort of colloquialism that would make sense to someone with cultural context?

Has India fielded carriers that lcatapult launch fixed wing aircraft or are they still using the VTOL, jumpjet ramp launching, Harrier carriers?

 

[silver 2039]

Some other important aspects. Things like this could throw a wrench in US plans to ally with India.

NEW DELHI: Even as the India-US nuclear deal is buffeted by Left politics in India, two more US senators have decided to turn up the heat on the US administration regarding India's "military contacts" with Iran. Jon Kyl (Republican-Arizona) and Dick Durbin (Democrat-Illinois) have written to US secretary of state, Condoleezza Rice, questioning whether this was the right time for the US Congress to endorse the 123 Agreement, particularly as India was stepping up its military contacts with Iran.

This is the latest salvo by US Congressmen against the nuclear deal, said sources, whipping up a bogey that does not really exist.

The letter, detailing India's relations with Iran said, "As supporters of the US-India civil nuclear accord, we're apprehensive that the agreement could be sidetracked by what appears to be a growing relationship between Iran and India."

Earlier this year, eight senators had written to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on the same subject, but there was no response. According to sources, this latest letter is also being circulated by the Jewish lobby in the US to whip up sentiments against India. India's relations with Iran have been a source of irritation in the US - but Indian government sources aver that there is almost no military relations with Iran. India's defence institutes regularly invite foreign military officers to courses here - some courses even have invitations to Pakistani forces (thought they never attend).

In fact, Indian naval forces are currently engaged in exercises in West Asia with Kuwait, Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Bahrain; with the British outside the Gulf of Oman and with the French in the Gulf of Aden.

The Iran bogey has been useful for the deal's opponents in Washington, just as they are for the opposition in India. In the US, it's a good way to keep India on its toes. Just a month ago, the US asked India to "diminish" its economic relations with "nuclear outlaw" Iran and join the international community in dealing with "one of the most difficult security problems" facing the world.

"We hope that India, as well as all other states - China, Russia, France, Britain and Japan - will diminish their economic relations with Iran," US undersecretary of state Nicholas Burns had said.

And the Left parties are already complaining about India becoming subservient to the US, so when the US spouts arrogant crap like this it certianely isn't helping their case or winning them any friends.

NEW DELHI: Ignoring United States' objections, India on Monday said it will go ahead with the proposed gas pipeline project with Iran.

"Talks are going on. When I was in Iran, I had mentioned categorically that we are interested in the pipeline and negotiations on the pricing are going on," External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee said in an interview to a private TV channel.

His response came when asked to comment on US objections to the proposed Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline.

US Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman, during a visit here last week, had said Washington was opposed to India having the pipeline project with Iran as it was against his country's law.

India has maintained that feasibility aspects like pricing and commercial viability will be the only factors guiding the trilateral project that is estimated to be of the tune of $7.4 billion.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...peline_project_Pranab/articleshow/1811381.cms

Ah....oil pipelines....heh

 

[silver 2039]

"We cannot be like frogs in the well and think that we know everything," said Indian Vice-Admiral Raman Prem Suthan.

Is this some sort of colloquialism that would make sense to someone with cultural context?

Has India fielded carriers that lcatapult launch fixed wing aircraft or are they still using the VTOL, jumpjet ramp launching, Harrier carriers?

Viraat is fitted with a 12° ski jump to operate the Sea Harrier, a reinforced flight deck

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/INS_Viraat

 

[Elrohir]

Simply put, it's all very interesting, and very, very complicated - we'll see how it all turns out.

 

[joycem10]

For the Indian Navy to have true power projection they are going to need true carriers. Not old RN style carriers operating Sea Harriers. For power projection that can intimidate the Chinese you're going to need a platform that can launch a fixed wing AEW platform and at least 2 air superiority squadrons and 2 strike squadrons.

The Harrier/jump carrier tandem is decent, but not when attempting to project power. Look what happened to the Brits down in the Falklands.

Isnt the old Admiral Kuznetzov for sale? The Indian Navy would do well to invest in that, assuming it still floats.

 

[shortguy]

Has India fielded carriers that lcatapult launch fixed wing aircraft or are they still using the VTOL, jumpjet ramp launching, Harrier carriers?

AFAIK the only people who use catapult launching are the US, France, and, somewhat surprisingly, Brazil.

 

[Colonel]

Encircle the Chinese Hurray!

 

[Japanrocks12]

Interesting, but also incredibly frightening. I don't like the idea of a cold war between India and China one bit.

 

[dosed150]

For the Indian Navy to have true power projection they are going to need true carriers. Not old RN style carriers operating Sea Harriers. For power projection that can intimidate the Chinese you're going to need a platform that can launch a fixed wing AEW platform and at least 2 air superiority squadrons and 2 strike squadrons.

The Harrier/jump carrier tandem is decent, but not when attempting to project power. Look what happened to the Brits down in the Falklands.

Isnt the old Admiral Kuznetzov for sale? The Indian Navy would do well to invest in that, assuming it still floats.

they bought the admiral Gorshkov in 2004, it'll return to service next year as the INS Vikramaditya, and will be able to operate mig 29k, sea harriers and HAL tejas fighters, and theyre building 1 vikrant class carrier with similar capabilities, with more expected to be built in future

the admiral kuznetzov is still in service with the russian navy, its being refitted at the moment, its sister ship the varyag was sold to the chinese by the ukraine but under the promise it'll never be refitted for combat

 

[Elrohir]

For the Indian Navy to have true power projection they are going to need true carriers. Not old RN style carriers operating Sea Harriers. For power projection that can intimidate the Chinese you're going to need a platform that can launch a fixed wing AEW platform and at least 2 air superiority squadrons and 2 strike squadrons.

The Harrier/jump carrier tandem is decent, but not when attempting to project power. Look what happened to the Brits down in the Falklands.

Isnt the old Admiral Kuznetzov for sale? The Indian Navy would do well to invest in that, assuming it still floats.

Well, they are working on a new carrier, that is supposed to be operational next year. It doesn't use a catapult system, though, it launches the planes with a STOBAR setup.

Not quite a Nimitz class, but better than what they've got now. And they're working on yet another one, a completely indigenous ship, supposed to be ready in 2012. (That one can carry two full squadrons, nearly double what the Vikramditya can)

All in all, it sounds to me like the Indians are pretty busy beefing up their navy.

 

[Japanrocks12]

Another thing I found interesting was that "This was not put together as a signal against anyone", while the Chinese are operating nearby and thus to them it is a veritable signal. Although the goal may be to ensure each nation gets sovereignty over its own waters, the Chinese interpretation of that goal is a clear mandate to violate China's at the expense of everyone else's. I hope that in their efforts to police the region, they don't piss the Chinese off too much, I sincerely hope so.

 

[Winner]

I find the idea of a cold war between China and India an interesting and plausible one.

I do not. There is nothing to wage it over. You see, there was a cold war between the West and USSR because of their conflicting views of how Europe should be governed or, in general, it started because the West wanted to stop the Soviets from acquiring a global dominance.

If China is to wage a Cold war against someone, it's the US or the West in general. But this new Cold war won't be as dangerous as the previous one, because both sides have much more to lose.

Open conflict would be devastating to both, yet there is a clear advantage at gaining power and influence over the other Asian nations.

Open war could start over Pakistan. It's possible, but unlikely.

I don't see Russia as a serious contender unless it somehow manages to completely overhaul its economy, but Japan I think will have to become more active and more influent if it does not want to completely vanish from the scene.

Russians will soon find out, that their attempts to befriend China won't end up as they planned...

 

[Japanrocks12]

I do not. There is nothing to wage it over. You see, there was a cold war between the West and USSR because of their conflicting views of how Europe should be governed or, in general, it started because the West wanted to stop the Soviets from acquiring a global nce.

If China is to wage a Cold war against someone, it's the US or the West in general. But this new Cold war won't be as dangerous as the previous one, because both sides have much more to lose.



Open war could start over Pakistan. It's possible, but unlikely.



Russians will soon find out, that their attempts to befriend China won't end up as they planned...

agree with all of your post. Cold war between the two nations would be fought entirely over territorial sovereignty and national pride, and nothing more beyond that. And Chinese relations with Russia never really recovered since the days after Mao, and I assume a degree of mutual distrust will dominate that relationship.

 

[innonimatu]

I do not. There is nothing to wage it over. You see, there was a cold war between the West and USSR because of their conflicting views of how Europe should be governed or, in general, it started because the West wanted to stop the Soviets from acquiring a global dominance.

I find myself finally agreeing with you on something!

If China is to wage a Cold war against someone, it's the US or the West in general. But this new Cold war won't be as dangerous as the previous one, because both sides have much more to lose.

But not on everything
At least not on semantics, but they are important here. Cold Wars are good for the side with the most resources. It would be the US waging it against China, not its opponent.

It China ever planned to wage a war against the US, it would be the "hot" type, aiming for a quick resolution. Something that the japanese have regretted trying, by the way.

Oh, and on the OP: the word about the indian navy projects is that they are a string of blunders which make the new french carriers look like a stunning success in comparison!
India is still using an (almost) WW2 carrier bought from britain, and is having serious difficulties with its projects for a locally-build small carrier - mostly due to lack of local contractors capable of supplying critical parts.
China, in the meanwhile, is just developing a huge industrial base and the know how that inevitably comes with it...

 

[Tee Kay]

An Asian Cold War is possible but unlikely. People are too busy making money with each other in the region imo. An arms race or a war would be disastrous for all involved.