NCAA Football Thread - 2024

[Quintillus]

For me it's not just about playoff implications as to whether I can get into a game, but whether it's just a good, even, could-go-either-way game. Although my favorite team is in control of its own destiny, so the implications of games involving two-loss teams are more academic than practical for me. That could change if Indiana is 11-0 in a week's time.

Both of the late games wound up being upsets - New Mexico over Wazzou and Kansas over BYU. Colorado had better not be snoozing on Kansas - the Jayhawks beat Iowa State last week, and have consecutive wins over ranked opponents for the first time ever. I'd been wondering what happened with Kansas after their legitimately good year last year - when they were 2-6 they were arguably the team with the second-worst change from last year (after Florida State of course). But all but one of their losses were by 6 points or fewer, and they've now won 3 of 4, the loss being a 2-point loss to then-#16 Kansas State. So they seem to have figured out how to finish games, and that mid-afternoon Kansas/Colorado game looks a lot more interesting now.

Now we only have 11 one-loss teams (including G5). My chart is based on last week's rankings so presumably it's Georgia, not Tennessee, that will be in (edit: and Ole Miss over SMU), and the Committee would put Alabama ahead of Army, though I'll keep my powder dry until we see how the Yankee Stadium game next week turns out.

One hundred years ago in 1924, the Four Horsemen of Notre Dame helped the Irish defeat Army in the Polo Grounds baseball stadium in New York City. Can Army return the favor a century later in a different New York baseball stadium?

 

[ummmm........]

I really really hope Ohio State beats Indiana by forty. I think Indiana is a great story, and I like Cignetti a lot, but they're the one team currently in the playoffs (other than the G5 and probs Big XII champ) that I don't think can put up a fight against the other playoff teams. So in the spirit of hoping for good games, I'd like the committee to have no choice but to leave them out. There are other teams with undeserving resumes, like Texas and Penn State, but I think those teams will put up a fight when given the chance, and Texas at least still has some opportunity left to prove it . . .

The WSU outcome was a shocker, but I was expecting Kansas over BYU, or at least the likelihood of it. I feel the same way about Colorado, tho perhaps less likely. This weekend is looking like Ole Miss/Florida early (bc I'm expecting that OSU/Indiana blowout), Colorado/Kansas in the afternoon and Alabama/Oklahoma at night. Solid alternatives in each slot tho. Kind of wish WSU/Oregon State wasn't getting the CW treatment, but I wouldn't watch it over Alabama anyway . . .

EDIT: Ohio State opens as an 11' point favorite. I was expecting more ; p It will be interesting to watch that line during the week. Other lines of note, Penn State/Minnesota is the same as Ohio State/Indiana, ASU favored by 3' over BYU, Colorado and A&M each only 2' over Kansas and Auburn.

EDIT EDIT: Up to 13' for Ohio State, almost two touchdowns, 12' for Penn State and 3 for Colorado, others haven't moved . . .

EDIT EDIT EDIT: So basically what we need here is for Indiana to lose badly enough that they fall behind the four 8-2 SEC teams behind them in the standings. That shouldn't be that hard Ohio State. Go out there and do your job ; p

EDIT EDIT EDIT EDIT: Finally found that site everyone has been using to predict the SEC tiebreakers. Not quite as useful with only two weeks left but it's bball.notnothing.net fwiw . . .

EDIT EDIT EDIT EDIT EDIT: Ohio State line all the way down to -10, looks like we may be suffering through Indiana in the playoffs after all : (

EDIT EDIT EDIT EDIT EDIT EDIT: Well, Ohio State did their part I think. Twenty-three points would probs have been enough to drop Indiana behind the two-loss SEC teams given the lack of other games on their schedule. But Big-Game Lane let us down again ; p

Also I just saw an ad that the first two first-round games are on TNT? I thought all playoff games were ABC/ESPN. Or is TNT owned by Disney as well? I don't think I've seen a game on TNT all year. Who are their announcers even . . ?

 

[Quintillus]

Ohio State is 2-1 against Top Five teams this season, that's a good start. And the 15 points we gave up is with the help of one of our starting corners committing pass interference at every opportunity. In one case he could have had an interception if he had turned around and caught the ball, but instead he tackled the wide receiver before the ball arrived and it bounced off his back. That was in Indiana's first drive where they scored 7. Most pass interference penalties of any FBS player this year... wouldn't be surprised if we lose a big game due to those.

Aside from that though, really happy with how that game went, especially after the first quarter.

With two two-or-fewer teams having already lost (and Kansas up early on Colorado), I'll start updating my two-or-fewer-loss chart.

(moved to future post)

At this point I think it's clear that Penn State should be ahead of Indiana (though where Indiana winds up will be interesting), and Ole Miss being out helps the Big Twelve, ACC, and Texas A&M.

 

[ummmm........]

Eh, calling Indiana a top five team is kind of iffy. One of those things that's true, but not real. Also, fwiw Penn State was already ahead of Indiana, and deservedly so I think. Struggling with 6-4 Minnesota atm tho . . .

Kind of expected this with Kansas/Colorado, but Colorado more than capable of coming back and winning by twenty. Interesting to watch . . .

Eighteen two-loss P4 teams left atm, or maybe a better way to look at it is there are fourteen two-loss teams vying for the seven at large spots . . .

EDIT: Just realized I didn't say what I expect to happen to Indiana. Looking at Georgia's nine place drop after losing at Ole Miss I'd expect Indiana to drop behind the two loss SEC teams, at least. Assuming Ole Miss drops all the way out that would put Indiana at tenth. They should drop behind Boise as well, since Boise's three point loss at Oregon is much more impressive than what Indiana just did, and neither of them has played anyone outside of their one loss. As a practical matter it wouldn't make a difference, they'd be the last at large bid either way, and with what Ole Miss just did they probably deserve it. There just aren't going to be twelve viable teams. Shocker . . .

EDIT: Down twenty-one going into the fourth not looking great ; p

 

[Quintillus]

Quite the upset alert this evening. BYU is down, Kansas kept up their momentum, Army is going to fall, Wyoming has a chance with two minutes left, the Sooners defense is doing well, Auburn is winning, Utah is still in the game, and Penn State/Minnesota looks like it came down to the wire.

Edit: What a touchdown catch by Ryan Williams! Or... not? I can usually identify the reason for penalties these days, but I don't see that one.

 

[ummmm........]

We were the best of teams, we were the worst of teams . . .

There was no penalty on that TD, but it didn't make any difference obv. EDIT: I should say that the penalty that was called didn't happen, it's possible there was some other penalty that they meant to call but called the wrong thing. It's also possible the ref confused Williams for the receiver inside him but with the delay on the flag it was pretty suspicious. EDIT EDIT: Since it was called illegal touching the flag couldn't be thrown until Williams touched the ball, so that explains the delay. But it doesn't change the fact that Williams was not covered up and there was no actual penalty to be called. It also doesn't change the fact that we weren't going to win either way ; p

Anyway, we and Colorado, Washington State and Ole Miss were the two-loss P4 teams that lost today. So that leaves us with fifteen, or eleven vying for the seven at large spots . . .

EDIT: Well, spoke too soon, Auburn still giving it a shot. Never underestimate Jordan-Hare . . .

I think this will ultimately benefit the ACC, since the Big Ten and SEC are no longer able to fill the at large spots I'm guessing the ACC will get a second team in before the Big XII does ; p

 

[Quintillus]

Yeah, lots of upsets. At this point the rankings would look something like:

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Notre Dame
5. Miami?
6. Penn State?
7. Georgia?
8. Tennessee
9. SMU
10. Boise State
11. Texas A&M or Clemson?
12. Indiana or second Big Twelve?

Looks like Auburn is going to overtime so long as they can make a field goal.

 

[ummmm........]

If A&M wins in OT and the favorites win next week -- including Texas over A&M -- then the SEC title game would be a rematch of that Texas/A&M game ; p

EDIT: I don't think Penn State will drop since they did ultimately win the game. I'd expect Indiana to drop down under Tennessee but no further. It's hard to imagine Clemson jumping up to twelfth, I'm betting Alabama & Ole Miss will both still be ahead of them. Anyway, I'm thinking Clemson loses to South Carolina next week anyway so won't matter. I guess it's possible Alabama or Ole Miss will still be twelfth? Either would still be out of the playoffs ofc bc the Big XII leader will be out of the top twelve . . .

EDIT EDIT: Auburn won. So that's only fourteen P4 two loss teams remaining, ten for the seven at large spots. And that puts Georgia in the SEC title game against the Texas/A&M winner . . .

EDIT EDIT EDIT: And with everything else going on, let's not lose sight of the fact that Oregon State won the Pac-12 today ; p

 

[Quintillus]

Clemson/South Carolina will be an important game, the Tigers still need a ranked win. I don't think a three-loss SEC team can make the Top 12 after this week's results. If the 24-17 loss had been Alabama to an Oklahoma team from a few years ago, maybe. 24-3 to a 5-5 Oklahoma team? Nope.

If there is continued attrition among 2-loss teams next week and there's serious consideration of a 3-loss team, IMO Ole Miss is the best three-loss SEC team in terms of plausibility that they could win in the playoffs. Dart had a bad game today, but they beat Georgia convincingly, and all their losses are by 7 or less. Although A&M will have an opportunity to beat Texas next week... their loss to South Carolina means they'd need some help, but if they beat Texas with style points, they may be able to make up for their quadruple-overtime loss tonight.

All in all though, I'll be pulling for two-loss teams over three loss teams. I think it's also better for the sport at a national level if the ACC and/or Big Twelve get multiple teams in, assuming they have multiple two-or-fewer loss teams when it's all said and done. The ACC probably will. The Big Twelve, who knows.

Boise State is now the obvious Group of 5 pick, but they play the Pac-12 champion Beavers next week, and have the Mountain West championship the week after that. So that's also interesting... if they lose, it opens up the door to Army, but they aren't plausibly going to win after losing by a zillion tonight. And the American championship is going to be Army vs Tulane, so if Tulane beats Memphis next week and then Army, and Boise State loses one of the next two, the door might be open for the Green Wave crashing the playoff party. Their only losses are to Oklahoma (by fewer points than Alabama lost to the Sooners) and to Kansas State (who is 8-3), so if they win out they'll have some plausibility in terms of maybe winning a playoff game.

And if Tulane wins out but Boise State is the only G5 pick anyway, maybe we'll have the Green Wave against the Crimson Tide in a bowl game. That would be a fun one from a mascot perspective.

The two-loss chart:

Spoiler Teams by Loss Count :

Losses in bold, G5 in italics

1. Oregon (zero, Big Ten)
---
2. Ohio State (one)
3. Texas (one, SEC)
4. Penn State (one)
5. Indiana (one, Ohio State)
6. Notre Dame (one)
7. Miami (one, ACC)
8. Boise State (one, Mountain West)
9. SMU (one)
10. Army (one, American)
---
11. BYU (two, Arizona State)
12. Georgia (two)
---
13. Tennessee (two)
14. Iowa State (two)
15. Clemson (two)
16. Arizona State (two)
17. Tulane (two)
-- (end of the ones who likely have a real chance unless there's lots of chaos)--
18. UNLV (two)
19. Liberty (two)
20. Memphis (two)
21. Louisiana (two, Sun Belt)

Received Third Loss This Week:
Ole Miss (Florida)
Sam Houston (Jacksonville State)
Colorado (Kansas)
Alabama (Oklahoma)
Washington State (Oregon State)
Texas A&M (Auburn)

 

[ummmm........]

Clemson beating South Carolina doesn't really do them any good. What they need is for Miami to lose to Syracuse so they can sneak into the ACC title game. There is a lot of concern about a team being punished for losing their conference title game while another team that spends that weekend sitting at home takes advantage. So I don't think they would move Clemson over either SMU or Miami if Clemson isn't in the title game, even if they do beat South Carolina. Or they shouldn't anyway. If they do it would only be bc they're desperate for some name brand teams in the playoffs to draw eyeballs at that point ; p

The reason it will be hard to drop Alabama and Ole Miss lower than twelve and thirteen is bc everyone currently ranked fourteenth through sixteenth also lost. So none of those teams are moving up. That puts Clemson next, and as you pointed out they have no wins and were destroyed by the Georgia team that both Alabama and Ole Miss beat. But like I said it's academic, the Big XII champ will take that twelfth slot in the bracket from whoever is ranked twelfth anyway . . .

I don't think we're going to have to worry about three loss teams in the playoffs, at least not this year. We'd have to lose four more two-loss P4 teams in the last weekend for that to even come up, and while there are certainly some candidates, there are only six P4 teams with exactly two losses left at this point, so you're talking about two-thirds of them losing this weekend. If we do get a three loss team in it would probably be the loser of a conference title game, not someone who lost three in the regular season. Again, at least not this year . . .

I've followed Tulane from a distance just bc they have Troy's old coach and he's a good dude. They screwed up the same way a lot of teams screwed up this year, they overscheduled. They used two of their four ooc games to schedule P4 opponents they lost to while Boise only scheduled one. So Boise is ahead in the standings the same way P4 teams like Texas, Penn State and Indiana have been able to leverage weaker schedules into playoff rankings they might not enjoy if they'd played the schedules of some of the two-loss teams below them. Though I do feel like I need to throw the caveat in there that it's not Texas' fault that Michigan sucks this year ; p

For the seven at large spots I see three Big Ten teams, two SEC teams, Notre Dame and the ACC championship game loser . . .

EDIT: Cool story I just picked up from the Auburn game. This is maybe more local interest but if you follow college sports you might remember a story from a year or two ago about the Birmingham-Southern baseball team, a small liberal arts college in Alabama that went bankrupt and closed while the team was in the college world series, so they went on and competed for a college that no longer existed. Anyway, the kicker than made the field goal that sent Auburn into OT v A&M last night was the kicker on the Birmingham-Southern team when the school closed as well ; p

EDIT EDIT: Odds are out and Clemson and ISU are 2' point favorites, the other four two-loss P4 teams are favored by at least a touchdown. So we would need three fairly major upsets before we start talking about three-loss teams in the playoffs . . .

EDIT EDIT EDIT: Or I'm sry just one "major" upset. Fourteen two-loss teams remain, assume five of them are conference champs that leaves nine vying for seven at large, if Clemson and ISU lose that would leave exactly seven, more than that and a three loss team can squeak in . . .

 

[Quintillus]

The AP Poll results are in and... although they take a less charitable view of Miami, their top 12 and my top 12 are the same, with Indiana rather than another Big Twelve (ASU being the closest). Clemson snagging that 12th spot. Of course it isn't the CFP Poll, but that at least suggests Clemson may be competitive for that spot... for this week.

Miami of Ohio got a vote in the Coaches' Poll too... to be fair they did beat Northern Illinois, who beat Notre Dame... who beat Miami of Ohio (but by fewer points than how many they beat Army by). I'd be curious who they got that vote from and why. To me it seems tough to rank a 7-4 MAC team 25th, when they have no signature wins, when no other 4-loss team is ranked. But they have won 6 in a row, so maybe they're better than I would have guessed.

Kind of like how you can't really justify ranking 5-6 Kansas, but when they've beaten three straight Top 25 teams, you kind of wonder if maybe they are one of the top 25 teams at this point in the season, even though they clearly weren't in September.

 

[ummmm........]

Steve Spurrier used to rank Duke #25 in the first poll of every season, just bc he used to coach there. Making a poll isn't an exact science, you can't leave #4 at #4 if they lose to #1-3, even tho by ranking the other teams #1-3 you're saying you think they're better than #4 so that's the result you'd expect from those games. At some point you have to look at wins and losses and not at which team is better. Like Alabama and Ole Miss are just as good this week as they were last week, and would likely provide more competitive games in the playoffs than Indiana and the ACC runner-up(EDIT: I shouldn't really say that. Miami with Cam Ward is capable of posing a threat, and I haven't seen enough of SMU to have an intelligent opinion, I'm just unimpressed by their schedule ; p), but they played themselves out of contention by losing to teams they shouldn't have. I'd be disappointed to see the committee ignore that again like they did with FSU last year. Ofc I also think twelve teams is ridiculous, so as long as the SEC and Big Ten champs are in there with Notre Dame, we got the impt bit right ; p

And don't obsess over that twelfth spot in the poll, remember the Big XII champ takes that spot in the bracket anyway . . .

EDIT: Poll is out, and riddle me this: Miami is ahead of UGA/Tennessee, SMU is behind. SMU has the better loss and better wins, Miami has . . . Cam Ward? How does this make sense . . ? EDIT: Ofc I understand it makes no difference, they're both getting in and seeding will be based on who wins the ACC title game, just pointing out that it makes no sense ; p

Overall I'm fine with the poll, I think the committee has the right twelve teams in based on how the season played out. But what I'm disappointed by is that the last three seeds, Indiana, Boise and the Big XII champ are going to provide us with less competitive games than the next three three-loss SEC teams would have. Note that I am *NOT* saying those teams should be in and Indiana, Boise and the Big XII champ should be out -- obv leaving out Boise and the Big XII champ isn't even an option -- but what I am saying is that they sold us this twelve team playoff as worth its cost (the first two thirds of the regular season) bc the end result was going to be so fantastic. And I'll agree this last six weeks of the season did have a lot more games that mattered than it normally would have, but this first round of the playoffs is looking like a bust : /

EDIT EDIT: I haven't really looked at a bracket before today but wow, what are we doing? The fifth seed is pretty much always going to be the second best team from either the Big Ten or the SEC, and their path to the semifinal is pretty much always going to go through the two worst conference champions -- the twelfth and fourth seeds. Now the second best team isn't always going to be the team that loses the conference title game, but if, for example, you're Ohio State this year, wouldn't you much rather lose the conference title game and get the fifth seed path than win and face the UGA/Tennessee winner? Looking at the bracket also made me realize how often the semis are going to be rematches, often of the SEC and Big Ten title games. In the years it's not a rematch it's likely to be Big Ten/SEC champ v SEC/Big Ten runner up, which I guess is about the best we can hope for . . ?

 

[Quintillus]

If I'm an Ohio State fan, I want to win that championship game and cancel out that 1-point loss to Oregon. Losing twice to a team would be no way to set up a positive attitude for having a chance in the playoffs. Plus by winning you get a bye, and the likes of UGA and Tennessee would have to be faced at some point anyway.

I keep forgetting that SMU moved to the ACC rather than the Big Twelve. But it has interesting bracket implications. There's an outside chance that the Big Twelve champion will have three losses (if two or more of the three teams with two losses lose this week, and then one of them wins the conference), and in that case Tulane (one spot behind Arizona State) could lead the American into that fifth conference spot.

I'm not sure if Tulane versus Iowa State versus Arizona State would make much of a difference in challenge to a #5 seed, but whoever is #12 likely is going to be motivated to have made the playoff, and good enough that a #5 seed looking ahead to "tougher opponents" could dig themselves a hole. Ultimately I see this as a "try it for 3 or 4 years and see how it goes" thing, and still suspect 8 teams would have been the right balance. But Miami lost to Georgia Tech, Tennessee lost to Arkansas, Notre Dame lost to Northern Illinois, all teams projected to make the playoffs losing to much easier opponents than any prospective #12 seed.

Edit: Had not realized that the first round games will be true home games. That's rather exciting, finally some northern football games in December and January that aren't indoors at Ford Field, or at Fenway (though Fenway is a cool option). Definitely some home field advantage for the likes of teams like Notre Dame, Ohio State, and Penn State in that scenario - a team like Michigan wouldn't flinch at a snow bowl, but with a fair chance of an opponent from the Deep South, that could make a difference.

 

[ummmm........]

I'd love to see Tulane get in ahead of the Big XII, but I don't see it happening. The Big XII is chaos, with over half the conference still alive to make the title game with only one game to go, so there could be a theoretical outcome where maybe Tulane is left out in front, but if the champ turns out to be anyone at all reasonable -- at least any of the five currently ranked -- the committee is going to make sure they get in, it's probably why they bumped KState back in to the bottom of the rankings this week . . .

And ofc the five seed could lose, I'm just pointing out that their path is absurdly easy compared to everyone else, and will be every year. Also, fwiw while we're on the subject, upsets are bad. They're exciting for the casual fan, but if the goal of all this is to crown a legitimate champion -- which I suppose it's not really, anymore -- losing the better team in an earlier round works against that . . .

Having the home games in the first round is really cool, and ofc could provide some weather advantage, but it brings up a weird factoid I learned earlier this season. The Big Ten's contract with FOX includes a provision that Ohio State will not play night games in the second half of the season. Which is weird to me as an SEC fan bc we always think of night games as the desirable slot, but I can see how with the potential for much colder weather in Big Ten country that wouldn't be the case. But it does illustrate the point that the northern teams don't really like playing in the cold either lol. It reminds me of the idea of "playing for weather" back in the pre-BCS days. The better your season, the more likely your bowl game was going to be in California or Florida ; p

EDIT: Alabama fun fact: This isn't going to happen, but if Wisconsin beats Minnesota and Auburn beats Alabama, there won't be a single opponent on Alabama's schedule that finishes the regular season with a losing record . . .

 

[Quintillus]

The Big Ten's contract with FOX includes a provision that Ohio State will not play night games in the second half of the season. Which is weird to me as an SEC fan bc we always think of night games as the desirable slot, but I can see how with the potential for much colder weather in Big Ten country that wouldn't be the case.

I'm not sure it's so much due to the weather as because we like outdoor day games here, and always have. Ohio Stadium didn't install permanent lights until 2014, Spartan Stadium and Ross-Ade (Purdue) didn't until 2017, and Ryan Field (Northwestern) never did have permanent lights through its closure at the end of the 2023 season (so that's why they're playing at Wrigley...). Under natural lighting is the way Big Ten football is meant to be played.

And I suppose you could look at it the opposite way - it's probably noticeably cooler and more pleasant at night, compared to mid-day, in the early season in the south, but in the Great Lakes area, it's usually not too toasty for a day game in September.

Another local factor in Columbus is that Saturday afternoon games have minimal competition from a traffic standpoint, which matters when you're trying to get 110,000 people to one location in a city of 900,000 with poor public transit. We had a Friday evening game once in the mid-2010s, and it was a logistics disaster. Half the city going to the football game, half the city leaving work, gridlock everywhere, ambulances couldn't get to hospitals (especially Ohio State's hospital) due to the gridlock. Saturday nights aren't as bad as Fridays of course but for decades traffic flows were optimized around those noon and 3:30 games, and nothing has really changed that improves the situation for evening games when the non-football people are also trying to get to places that require going by Ohio Stadium on the main north-south freeway in the city. Normally it's really cool that you can see Ohio Stadium from the freeway, but it's less fun if you're trying to get somewhere but can't due to everyone going to the stadium.

So my guess is that placating the hospital administration and the police directing traffic and all the non-football locals who know to plan for noon or 3:30 games, but expect to be able to do other things on Saturday nights, is why that provision exists. And I haven't heard anyone say they wished there was a night game. Mixing up the noon games with some 3:30 games wouldn't be bad, makes it easier to do other things during the day on Saturday. Night games? That's for basketball.

, and Auburn beats Alabama, there won't be a single opponent on Alabama's schedule that finishes the regular season with a losing record . .

I probably wouldn't try to achieve that "didn't play a single losing team" status if it required losing a game to do so. Impressive strength of schedule though, even with one of those teams being Mercer.

 

[ummmm........]

You mean ten win Mercer, Southern conference champs? FCS playoff team? They got a bye, no sitting around hoping for chaos to let them slip in the back door nosiree ; p

I knew we had a really strong schedule bc that's why we were favored in all the two-loss tiebreakers, but I hadn't really sat down to look at it until recently. It didn't really feel that hard, UGA and Tennessee would have been perceived as the big threats going into the season I guess . . ?

EDIT: The southern affinity for night games is primarily fueled by a desire to have the whole day to get liquored up before the game starts ; p

EDIT EDIT: Looks like Minnesota crushed my dreams. Looking ahead to next year SEC schedule is the same, just flipped home & away so we get to avenge all our road losses at home next year, while likely picking up some road losses at UGA, Auburn, South Carolina and Missouri ; p We also have an ooc schedule that plays to the old four team format focus on strength of schedule over the twelve teams pure win/loss focus. Happily one of our two P4 ooc opponents is FSU \o/ They'll probs rebound and be undefeated again next year. Sigh . . .

EDIT EDIT EDIT: Clemson goes down in the early window, takes us down to thirteen P4 teams with two or fewer losses . . .

EDIT EDIT EDIT EDIT: Kind of meaningless tho, UGA and Tennessee were the only other teams in the top twelve with two losses and they both won. I don't think the Big XII can do anything to get more than one of their teams in so the field will remain the same, just some juggled seeds . . .

EDIT EDIT EDIT EDIT EDIT: Could the Miami loss to Syracuse be enough to drop them past Alabama? I'd be surprised. Also now a Clemson win in the ACC title game would bump out another team, likely Indiana . . .

EDIT EDIT EDIT EDIT EDIT EDIT: Conference title games are almost all set, and it looks like we're finishing the regular season with thirteen P4 teams with two losses or less. The only team still in play is BYU, struggling with Houston late in the first half. If they hold on it's ASU/ISU in the Big XII title game, if BYU loses Colorado vaults from fourth in the conference to first, knocking ISU out of the title game. Interesting that BYU, the highest ranked Big XII team for most of the season, is the only one of the four Big XII teams with two conference losses that cannot make the conference title game . . .

EDIT EDIT EDIT EDIT EDIT EDIT EDIT: Okay, BYU is done and the conference games are all set. In this first year of almost all divisionless play, four of the nine conference title games feature rematches, with the AAC actually being a rematch of today's Jax State/WKU game ; p But on the plus side, none of the games is projected to be as lopsided as they have occasionally been in the past, with all of the early lines being under a touchdown. Jax State is favored by 2' at home despite losing by two at WKU today, which actually seems safe to me. I usually feel like when teams are close in talent the team that won the first game is at a disadvantage in the second. In the other rematches Boise is favored by the same margin they beat UNLV by the first time, with both of those games being in Boise, and Miami(OH) is favored by two after beating Ohio by ten in the regular season. The real outlier is Texas, favored by 1' in Atlanta despite losing by fifteen at home to UGA in the regular season. Those teams have looked very different here at the end of the year tho. I don't see a line for the Big XII game yet, but Clemson is favored by 1' over SMU in the Saturday night game (opposite the Big Ten game). That ACC game is the only one that can have any real impact on who gets in the playoffs I think, so in a sense they're saving the best for last . . .

EDIT EDIT EDIT EDIT EDIT EDIT EDIT EDIT: Under the radar with the vastly diminished role of bowl games, but thirteen SEC teams are bowl eligible, which means if only the three SEC teams make the playoffs, there will be ten SEC teams looking for bowls and likely not enough bowls to go around . . .

EDIT EDIT EDIT EDIT EDIT EDIT EDIT EDIT EDIT: The ACC is in even worse shape, thirteen bowl eligible teams and very likely fewer than three in the playoffs. I guess the first bowl projections will start coming out tomorrow sometime. I'm sure it will all work itself out . . .

EDIT EDIT EDIT EDIT EDIT EDIT EDIT EDIT EDIT EDIT: Alabama up to eleventh in the AP and the coaches' \o/ If the committee follows suit AND SMU beats Clemson in the ACC title game we're in \o/

 

[Quintillus]

Miserable offensive and special teams performance against that team up north. Defense did their job but it's hard to win scoring only ten points, even Iowa struggles with that at times. Don't know what Chip Kelly was thinking, it was obvious to everyone that running up the middle wasn't working very well, so what did he try instead? More running up the middle. Ryan Day did make one smart call, putting twelve men on the field late in the fourth quarter to give TTUN a first down and prevent them from running out the clock, but the offensive playcalling was miserable.

Kyle McCord was the best (ex-)Buckeye on offense, leading that big comeback over Miami (FL).

But my favorite game of the weekend was Clean Old-Fashioned Hate. So many overtimes. Such a close game. Georgia Tech was so close to winning. I was rooting for the 'dogs to pull off the upset over the Dawgs, but it was a classic.

Kinda feels like the season is over though. Yeah, there's technically the playoffs, but whether the season is a success or not is determined not by playoffs, but by rivalry week. Might as well just send Notre Dame, Texas (if they win), whoever wins of Oregon and Penn State, and... well I guess we'd need another team to get to four. How about SMU if they win, they'd be 12-1? Or Boise State if SMU loses? Then the next 8 teams each have a 50% chance of finishing the season with a bowl win instead of a 90% chance of finishing with a playoff loss.

 

[ummmm........]

Oklahoma is actually out west and we only scored three, but yeah. That was last week tho ; p

I disagree about rivals tho. If I had to choose between beating Auburn and winning the SEC or making the playoffs, I'll take championships every time. I agree about too many teams ofc, been preaching that all year. If we were back in the four team model I still think Ohio State would be one of the best four, but ofc with the two losses I wouldn't put them in. I'd go with Notre Dame, SEC champ & Big Ten champ, then the fourth team would still be from the SEC or Big Ten, but which would depend on what happened in the title games. If chalk or an UGA upset I'd take Tennessee, if both were upsets or if there was an upset in the Big Ten I'd still take Oregon as the fourth team . . .

But since we're not I'm still excited about Alabama sneaking in the back door. Very invested in that ACC championship . . .

EDIT: Mwahahahaha, the evil overlords of CFB have done their backroom deals and Alabama is back in it, for the moment. The more I've thought about it I started to remember all the shady officiating that kept Miami from dropping games early in the season, wondering if we could see the same come back this weekend to get Clemson in but keep SMU from falling outside the top eleven. I know a lot of ppls will be pulling for that to keep Alabama out, but as CFB fans I feel like ppls should be pulling against Clemson, would be a garbage team in the playoffs, even worse than Indiana ; p Speaking of I still see that as the only real flaw in the committee's rankings, I'd have Indiana out and Ole Miss in, but that's a minor quibble really . . .

The way things look rn Alabama as the eleven seed would have a fairly easy path to the semifinals through the six and three seeds, mostly likely Penn State and SMU I think. Really you're happy anywhere in the lower half of the bracket, avoiding the SEC and Big Ten champs . . .