New Zealand Election

[Zardnaar]

Well on Saturday we go to the polls. Looking like a blowout for Labour. Well they have been open last 12 days. 1.5 million votes cast already.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/politica...ercent-while-greens-and-act-both-on-8-percent

Labour 46%
National 31%
ACT 8%
Greens 8%
NZF 3%

You need more than 5% or win an Electorate seat. Only ACT has an electorate seat outside of Labour/National.

Depending on where the votes fall Labour can govern alone on 46-48% eg 5% wasted votes, Greens get 4.8% and exit parliment.

Most likely result. Labour/Greens coalition in a landslide.

Brief breakdowns.

Labour left of center/moderate.

National right of center lurching to the right. Conservative with a small C, neo liberal probably going to be reduce to rural strongholds and rich suburbs.

ACT. Association of Consumers and Taxpayers. Extreme neo liberal/libertarian. Up from 0.5% last election.

Green. Progressive, liberal, further left than Labour. More about social causes than environment. Wants to introduce wealth tax.

NZF. New Zealand First. Old school conservative, last remnants of pre neo lib old school conservative. Current coalition with Labour/Greens. Probably on its way out.

Either way we're gonna have a female leader. Labour has Jacinda Ardern, she's a bit popular.

Economy has taken a back seat to Covid.

 

[Drakle]

Hopefully Labor does get the landslide it is projected to get. Not only shared ideology, but good governance deserve as to be rewarded.

 

[Zardnaar]

The leader of the opposition. More Thatcher than Thatcher.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ands-anti-ardern-whose-hero-is-thatcher#img-1

 

[Zardnaar]

Took 30 minutes total. In line for 15 minutes, walked there and back with two friendly cats wanting pats there and back.

Party Vote Labour
Electorate Candidate Greens

Referendum.
Yes to pot
Yes to euthenasia.

 

[Kyriakos]

Did the One get a parliament seat?

 

[Zardnaar]

Did the One get a parliament seat?

IDK polls close in 3 hours.

That's one of the interesting things to see. Based in polling she won't.

 

[Kyriakos]

IDK polls close in 3 hours.

That's one of the interesting things to see. Based in polling she won't.

This is a travesty

 

[Zardnaar]

This is a travesty

It's a three way race with not much in it.

The left vote is splitting between the greens and labour, but national candidate might sneak in due to this.

Last I heard the Labour candidate was in the lead but it's something like 26%-38% each with Chloe in 3rd place.

Context Greens were on 5%, she's polling at 26% in that electorate. My electorate is the only other one Greens have gotten over 20% (in 2014).

 

[Kyriakos]

It's a three way race with not much in it.

The left vote is splitting between the greens and labour, but national candidate might sneak in due to this.

Last I heard the Labour candidate was in the lead but it's something like 26%-38% each with Chloe in 3rd place.

Context Greens were on 5%, she's polling at 26% in that electorate. My electorate is the only other one Greens have gotten over 20% (in 2014).

If she is so much above the party's average, shouldn't she be given one of the party seats?

 

[Zardnaar]

If she is so much above the party's average, shouldn't she be given one of the party seats?

They don't have any seats. All list MPs.

Starts in 45 minutes.

 

[Zardnaar]

57% of the electorate voted early.

Watching this.

Probably a washout but things to see.

1. Can Labour govern alone?

2. % ACT/Greens get

3. How low can National go?

4. Will Winston Peter's make it back in?

5. Does Chloe win Auckland Central?

Early results.

Labour 50.5%

National 26.5%

ACT 8%

Greens 7%

Center left rocking 57.5% so far. I don't expect that to hold up though.

 

[Kyriakos]

I think she should have been high enough on the list to be in parliament if the greens got 5%.
It's not like the party (or country) have other internationally known politicians. And maybe she is more known that the prime minister as well

 

[Zardnaar]

I think she should have been high enough on the list to be in parliament if the greens got 5%.
It's not like the party (or country) have other internationally known politicians. And maybe she is more known that the prime minister as well

Yeah she's high enough to make it.

She's leading in Auckland Central.

It's turning into a blowout. Nationals getting routed in rural areas.

Gonna be a lot more red on the map tomorrow night.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_New_Zealand_general_election

Looks like they've lost a stronghold seat they've held since 1993.

Polls looked a bit off.

 

[Drakle]

Good. I hope NZ Labor uses this historic majority to really get things done. They have a mandate to really govern, and this is a golden opportunity to remake New Zealand. I wish Labor here in Australia had such a chance, and hadn't blown our Rudd-Gillard terms.

It is funny how NZ First who is deputy PM, isn't getting back in. Junior coalition partners don't fare well generally.

 

[Zardnaar]

Good. I hope NZ Labor uses this historic majority to really get things done. They have a mandate to really govern, and this is a golden opportunity to remake New Zealand. I wish Labor here in Australia had such a chance, and hadn't blown our Rudd-Gillard terms.

It is funny how NZ First who is deputy PM, isn't getting back in. Junior coalition partners don't fare well generally.

He pissed of National by picking Labour then pissed of the left by blocking progressive stuff.

Looks like generational change as well. The right wing leader who did well is young (late 30s).

Jacindas syphoned up 40% of the 2017 right wing vote. Maybe 30% a good chunk has gone to ACT.

A lot of old guard getting turfed out. Nationals losing 40% of their caucus from the look of it, NZ First is dog tucker.

 

[Zardnaar]

Labour just won the most conservative electorate in the country.

They can govern alone, just waiting for some Electorate results to come in.

Leader of opposition conceded two hours after polls closed.

Jacindas speech to faithful. Briefly outlined her goals.

Housing for the homeless
Free trade training.
Rebuild and recover.

Labours beaten National in various rural electorates although some popular local MPs have retained their seats despite Labour getting more votes in their Electorate.

46 seats to 64 increase.

Looks like Chloe will win Auckland Central atm for the Greens.

Center left 74 seats
Centre Right 45 seats

Not great news for progressives, Jacindas gonna lean towards the center but they got a higher % with a late swing towards them in the polls last two night. Still good night for the Greens but they don't hold balance of power.

Greens have probably win Electorate seat but special votes/recount might change that. 98% 400 vote lead.

Might have a Maori party MP win Electorate seat. So close special votes will matter.

My Electorate

1st Labour 21432
2nd Greens 6866
3rd National 5442

National voters outnumbered 5-1.

 

[ThERat]

I am very happy about that. One of the few good leaders the world currently seems to have. Let's hope they use the mandate they got wisely.

 

[Kyriakos]

The only one who matters is the Ok Boomer girl.

 

[Zardnaar]

The only one who matters is the Ok Boomer girl.

On the night she won.

I think she will win on recounts/special vote.

Results aren't 100%official yet and there's 2-3 seats that might change.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/428600/the-red-tide-labour-wins-15-seats-held-by-national

Turnout was 82.5% highest in years.

 

[Zardnaar]

Now with more gay.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/poli...w-has-the-gayest-parliament-in-the-world.html