[RD] News Thread of the Americas

[innonimatu]

I do think it's more likely not to happen than to happen, but it certainly seems plausible. If it does, I suspect it would resemble Fujimori's self-coup in 1992. The most likely outcome, though, is something like a hybrid of Trump and Duterte.

I completely agree about the next "emerging markets" panic. It's already breaking out in places ranging from Turkey to Argentina, and I'd be surprised if it didn't hit Brazil. I haven't looked at the details though.

Argentina is toast because Macri went on a borrowing spree in dollars. Not that his supporters will ever see something wrong with that.

Brazil is far too divided for Bolsanaro to control it, a self-coup in such a large country won't be like Fujimori's. Also, Fujimori had an excuse to involve the military, the Sendero Luminoso. Brazil has none. And Bolsanaro, for all his posturing, is not one of the military. The military have nothing to gain and a lot to lose from getting involved in any kind of coup in Brazil. And they know it. Unlike Egypt or Turkey, in Brazil the military do not have a sizable weight in the country's economy, they have no self-interests to defend by taking power. Bolsanaro is a buffoon, possibly now drunk on his apparent popularity. He can still do a lot of damage, but he'll quickly remember the limitations of central power in Brazil.

 

[Takhisis]

I'll quote an op-ed from the NYT:

Brazil’s Sad Choice
Jair Bolsonaro, the blustery hard-right candidate described as “a Brazilian Donald Trump,” appears headed for the presidency.

Jair Bolsonaro is a right-wing Brazilian who holds repulsive views. He has said that if he had a homosexual son, he’d prefer him dead; that a female colleague in the Parliament was too ugly to rape; that Afro-Brazilians are lazy and fat; that global warming amounts to “greenhouse fables.” He is nostalgic for the generals and torturers who ran Brazil for 20 years. Next Sunday, in the second round of voting, Mr. Bolsonaro will most likely be elected president of Brazil.

Behind this frightening prospect is a story that has become alarmingly common among the world’s democracies. Brazil is emerging from its worst-ever recession; a broad investigation called Operation Car Wash has revealed wanton corruption in government; a popular former president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, is in prison for corruption; his successor, Dilma Rousseff, was impeached; her successor, Michel Temer, is under investigation; violent crime is rampant. Brazilians are desperate for change.

Against this background, Mr. Bolsonaro’s gross views are construed as candor, his obscure career as a congressman as the promise of an outsider who will clean the stables and his pledge of an iron fist as hope of a reprieve from a record average of 175 homicides a day last year. An evangelical Christian, he preaches a blend of social conservatism and economic liberalism, though he confesses to only a superficial understanding of economics.

Sound familiar? He is the latest in long line of populists who have ridden a wave of discontent, frustration and desperation to the highest office in each of their countries. Not surprisingly, he is often described as a Brazilian Donald Trump.

Should he reach the presidential palace, one loser will be the environment, and specifically the Amazon rain forests, sometimes known as the lungs of the earth for their role in absorbing carbon dioxide. Mr. Bolsonaro has promised to undo many of the protections for the tropical forests to open more lands for Brazil’s powerful agribusiness. He has raised the prospect of withdrawing from the Paris climate agreement, scrapping the Environment Ministry and stopping the creation of indigenous reserves — all this in a country until recently praised for its leadership on protection of the environment.

It is not only the “beef, Bible and bullet” message that has brought Mr. Bolsonaro to the fore. The popular Mr. da Silva remained a strong contender despite his imprisonment until the Supreme Electoral Court ruled in August that he was ineligible to run. For a substitute, the left-leaning Workers’ Party (P.T.) turned to Fernando Haddad, a former professor, education minister and mayor of São Paulo. Though Mr. Haddad survived the first round of voting, he has failed to overcome his party’s association with corruption and mismanagement, which has fed something of an “anyone-but-the-P. T.” spirit. Polls show him far behind Mr. Bolsonaro in the second round.

The choice is for Brazilians to make. But it is a sad day for democracy when disarray and disappointment drive voters to distraction and open the door to offensive, crude and thuggish populists.​

And tomorrow I'll dig up an article on the differences and similarities between Bolsonaro and Trump which I found last week.

 

[Takhisis]

Argentina is toast because Macri went on a borrowing spree in dollars. Not that his supporters will ever see something wrong with that.

As for the first part, well, a large part of the population, even his supporters, do agree that he's borrowed too much; whether the country is ‘toast’ is still to be seen.
As for his supporters seeing something wrong with that… there is a hard core somewhere that really believes in 1990s-style economic policy and also a group that will put up with anything lest the kleptocratic Kirchners return, but you shouldn't paint them all with such a broad brush.

 

[Hrothbern]

I'll quote an op-ed from the NYT:

Brazil’s Sad Choice
Jair Bolsonaro, the blustery hard-right candidate described as “a Brazilian Donald Trump,” appears headed for the presidency.

Jair Bolsonaro is a right-wing Brazilian who holds repulsive views. He has said that if he had a homosexual son, he’d prefer him dead; that a female colleague in the Parliament was too ugly to rape; that Afro-Brazilians are lazy and fat; that global warming amounts to “greenhouse fables.” He is nostalgic for the generals and torturers who ran Brazil for 20 years. Next Sunday, in the second round of voting, Mr. Bolsonaro will most likely be elected president of Brazil.

Behind this frightening prospect is a story that has become alarmingly common among the world’s democracies. Brazil is emerging from its worst-ever recession; a broad investigation called Operation Car Wash has revealed wanton corruption in government; a popular former president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, is in prison for corruption; his successor, Dilma Rousseff, was impeached; her successor, Michel Temer, is under investigation; violent crime is rampant. Brazilians are desperate for change.

Against this background, Mr. Bolsonaro’s gross views are construed as candor, his obscure career as a congressman as the promise of an outsider who will clean the stables and his pledge of an iron fist as hope of a reprieve from a record average of 175 homicides a day last year. An evangelical Christian, he preaches a blend of social conservatism and economic liberalism, though he confesses to only a superficial understanding of economics.

Sound familiar? He is the latest in long line of populists who have ridden a wave of discontent, frustration and desperation to the highest office in each of their countries. Not surprisingly, he is often described as a Brazilian Donald Trump.

Should he reach the presidential palace, one loser will be the environment, and specifically the Amazon rain forests, sometimes known as the lungs of the earth for their role in absorbing carbon dioxide. Mr. Bolsonaro has promised to undo many of the protections for the tropical forests to open more lands for Brazil’s powerful agribusiness. He has raised the prospect of withdrawing from the Paris climate agreement, scrapping the Environment Ministry and stopping the creation of indigenous reserves — all this in a country until recently praised for its leadership on protection of the environment.

It is not only the “beef, Bible and bullet” message that has brought Mr. Bolsonaro to the fore. The popular Mr. da Silva remained a strong contender despite his imprisonment until the Supreme Electoral Court ruled in August that he was ineligible to run. For a substitute, the left-leaning Workers’ Party (P.T.) turned to Fernando Haddad, a former professor, education minister and mayor of São Paulo. Though Mr. Haddad survived the first round of voting, he has failed to overcome his party’s association with corruption and mismanagement, which has fed something of an “anyone-but-the-P. T.” spirit. Polls show him far behind Mr. Bolsonaro in the second round.

The choice is for Brazilians to make. But it is a sad day for democracy when disarray and disappointment drive voters to distraction and open the door to offensive, crude and thuggish populists.​

And tomorrow I'll dig up an article on the differences and similarities between Bolsonaro and Trump which I found last week.

From Reuters today, the most recent poll is 57% Bolsonaro and 43% Haddad.
So far as I follow it Bolsonaro only promised stuff that will cost a government nothing. Just attacks on "others", attacks on progressive nonsense, on Climate, on left wing .... and ofc more law and order and ofc less tropical forest for more agricultural business.

I tried to understand what his core voter base was.
The first remarkable thing about Bolsonaro, is that he is an evangelical. And that in that "very catholic" country where the pope came from.I thought that would be a disadvantage, but I guess now, it is an advantage.
There is since many years a slow change happening of the religious landscape in Latin America. Not so much of people stopping with religion, almost 85% of Brazil is religious, but of Catholics moving to be Evangelicals. About half the current evangelicals in Brazil was raised as a Catholic.

The following seems to happen as well in Brazil. But please correct when not giving the fair picture.
This religious change seems to allign to some degree with the socioeconomic class. With the lower middle class.
Whereas Catholics believe on the personal level more in charity for helping the poor, and converted to politics in helping the poor and minorities (~left wing votes from the not rich class), the evangelicals believe on the personal level more in bringing people to Christ, and convert this on the political level in less money for the poor. They themselves having reached the level that they do not need that government money anymore. The evangelicals giving more attention to more theoretical moral values, but of the conservative nature.
Pew did a very big poll on the religious development and the to politics related opinions on gender, abortion, etc, etc. http://www.pewforum.org/2014/11/13/religion-in-latin-america/
My eyes cry when I read that poll, especially because the evangelicals are more illiberal/conservative, and growing so fast from people changing from the more moderate Catholics to evangelicals.
But iif you read through the questions and percentages of that poll... it does show why Bolsonaro can do those terrible statements, and why that generates extra votes.
It poses also the question what the driver is or drivers are: there is a development to strict religion, to the low middle class and to evangelicals. Chicken-egg-egg. Do evangelicals fit better with raw free market for the middleclass than catholics ?
If this development of the religiouys landscape continues, it could have a continued slow coupe effect on the political landscape in many countries of Latin America.

Here a graph from another Pew poll on Brazil showing the religious change.
http://www.pewforum.org/2013/07/18/brazils-changing-religious-landscape/

 

[Takhisis]

The first remarkable thing about Bolsonaro, is that he is an evangelical. And that in that "very catholic" country where the pope came from.

Eeeeeehhhh.

 

[innonimatu]

Bolsanaro is no more evangelical than I am. Those churches in Brazil are badly disguised criminal operations to extract money from the fools. Their reach into the upper classes is zero, except insofar as elements from those classes use them and lead them.

 

[Broken_Erika]

Bolsanaro is no more evangelical than I am. Those churches in Brazil are badly disguised criminal operations to extract money from the fools. Their reach into the upper classes is zero, except insofar as elements from those classes use them and lead them.

Sounds like their political parties.....

 

[Lexicus]

If Bolsonaro wins the US should kill him and topple his government.

Moderator Action: Advocating for the death or murder of anyone is against forum rules and dealt with harshly. Enjoy a relaxing week off. It's on me. --LM
Please read the forum rules: http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=422889

 

[W|M]

If Bolsonaro wins the US should kill him and topple his government.

Knowing the US they'd just install his VP candidate, who's a serving general. Though I doubt the US would topple someone who promised to sell off the entire Amazon to American companies, and who has saluted the American flag

 

[Lexicus]

Knowing the US they'd just install his VP candidate, who's a serving general. Though I doubt the US would topple someone who promised to sell off the entire Amazon to American companies, and who has saluted the American flag

This is happening in a fictional near-future where the US has an actually left-wing government.

 

[W|M]

The day the US is dominated by the left is the day it has successfully undergone a communist revolution which has destroyed the state and not re-made it

 

[Broken_Erika]

You mean the North-Eastern Commonwealth and New California Republic?

 

[Hrothbern]

Bolsanaro is no more evangelical than I am. Those churches in Brazil are badly disguised criminal operations to extract money from the fools. Their reach into the upper classes is zero, except insofar as elements from those classes use them and lead them.

Bolsonaro is "enough" evangelical to get their votes, votes that were historically for Lula.
I mentioned lower middle class as core for the evangelicals, not the elite. And for sure the elite is using everybody convenient to win from the left. Bolsonaro is now the perfect facade.
On that churches as badly disguised criminal organisations: and on top a flock of voters that can be directed by their leaders. A bit like the US NRA ? Seems effective to me, and another similarity as well with the US.
Digging some further in that landscape change:
Here an article in the Atlantic of Januari this year, referring to a Dec 2017 poll where Bolsonaro gets 21%. Still an outsider.

The Rise of the Brazilian Evangelicals
Meet Jair Messias Bolsonaro, the ultra-conservative military officer-turned-politician poised to capitalize on the fall of the Workers’ Party.
https://www.theatlantic.com/interna...elical-takeover-of-brazilian-politics/551423/

An analysis that tries to understand roots that belong to the Brazilian situation, instead of the general blabla article of the Washington Post in this article that could apply to so many countries.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...ffaf6d422aa_story.html?utm_term=.6c0355d245fa
Even Reuters catches that Brazilian sentiment.

Brazil's evangelicals say far-right presidential candidate is answer to their prayers
BRASILIA (Reuters) - On a visit to Israel two years ago, far-right Brazilian lawmaker Jair Bolsonaro leaned back into the River Jordan in a white robe to be baptized in the arms of a fellow congressman and evangelical pastor.
“The left went too far,” said Bishop Robson Rodovalho, founder of the Brasilia-based Sara Nossa Terra church, which has 1.6 million followers. “Indoctrinating school children on sex revolted many parents. Today we are seeing a boiling over of reaction.”
Like many other evangelical leaders, he is calling on his followers to back Bolsonaro, whose middle name is Messias, Portuguese for “Messiah”.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...date-is-answer-to-their-prayers-idUSKCN1M70D9

Another similarity with the US. Bolsonaro getting the blessing of the "Church" like Trump got.
It reminds me of pre WW2 times in my country where the fathers and pastors used their sermon to tell the flock on which party to vote.

My takeaway is that traditional political arguments on socioeconomics, in terms of left-right, with logic and facts, in a secular discussion setting, like here on this forum..... are currently of diminishing value to influence the religious masses.
It is more than opaque populism and fake news.
It is also a reveil of the institutions of religions, the churches, the churchleaders, interfering in politics, like they did for centuries.
The rise of christianity in the first centuries AD, the rise of protestantism in the 16th century was not a theological driven process imo, but primarily a societal process that got the blessing from new theologies. And a positive feedback between those two. (mustard) seeds grow when the soil is fertile.
Putting labels on churches, that they are criminal, narrowminded,hypocrite, etc is a nice argument for a more logical fact based discussion, but has no big effect (anymore) on what happens in society, when church leader become vocal with more appealing messages being closer to drivers of people to improve their lives, to carve out their future with people they want to belong to.

 

[innonimatu]

Knowing the US they'd just install his VP candidate, who's a serving general. Though I doubt the US would topple someone who promised to sell off the entire Amazon to American companies, and who has saluted the American flag

I dare say that most brazilians deserve Bolsanaro, may he harm those a lot. Tired of idiots...

Bolsanaro is riding on the support extended to him by the brazilian business elites. Once they realized that their favorite candidate was not getting even to the second round and Bolsanaro could win, many (most?) shifted their support to him. Propaganda eventually loses its effectiveness, but it works for a while. It is working, Bolsanaro got sold as the candidate who would deal with the corruption problem. Never mind that he has always been a corrupt politician himself.

Lula would have cleansed the floor with him despite all the porpaganda, but he's a political prisoner barred from running.

My takeaway is that traditional political arguments on socioeconomics, in terms of left-right, with logic and facts, in a secular discussion setting, like here on this forum..... are currently of diminishing value to influence the religious masses.
It is more than opaque populism and fake news.
It is also a reveil of the institutions of religions, the churches, the churchleaders, interfering in politics, like they did for centuries.
The rise of christianity in the first centuries AD, the rise of protestantism in the 16th century was not a theological driven process imo, but primarily a societal process that got the blessing from new theologies. And a positive feedback between those two. (mustard) seeds grow when the soil is fertile.
Putting labels on churches, that they are criminal, narrowminded,hypocrite, etc is a nice argument for a more logical fact based discussion, but has no big effect (anymore) on what happens in society, when church leader become vocal with more appealing messages being closer to drivers of people to improve their lives, to carve out their future with people they want to belong to.

I know those sects in Brazil. They're corrupt as hell and don't even disguise it. They're not religions, they're criminal enterprises. Don't mistake them with american (US) evangelicals. There is no depth to these brazilian ones, they're nothing a good inquisition wouldn't clear out in a few months. Unfortunately we can't have one any longer, sometimes they were useful...
The fools who follow these "churches" would then waste their lives on some different foolishness, they're not even literate enough to actually follow a religion of the book. Cut down the parasites manipulating them and the whole thing collapses.

I am tired of idiots today...

 

[W|M]

I know those sects in Brazil. They're corrupt as hell and don't even disguise it. They're not religions, they're criminal enterprises. Don't mistake them with american (US) evangelicals. There is no depth to these brazilian ones, they're nothing a good inquisition wouldn't clear out in a few months. Unfortunately we can't have one any longer, sometimes they were useful...
The fools who follow these "churches" would then waste their lives on some different foolishness, they're not even literate enough to actually follow a religion of the book. Cut down the parasites manipulating them and the whole thing collapses.

I am tired of idiots today...

I'm not entirely sure why they shouldn't be confused with US evangelicals, since it was American neo-pentecostal missionaries who spread evangelism to Brazil in the first place

 

[innonimatu]

Those american churches are old and were mostly founded bu genuinely religious people. I may be outdated regarding the current situation in Brazil, but afaik the major sects there are local conman who say the vulnerability of the locals to those missionaries and set up their one operations, once they figured that religion can pay a lot.

 

[Hrothbern]

I dare say that most brazilians deserve Bolsanaro, may he harm those a lot. Tired of idiots...

Bolsanaro is riding on the support extended to him by the brazilian business elites. Once they realized that their favorite candidate was not getting even to the second round and Bolsanaro could win, many (most?) shifted their support to him. Propaganda eventually loses its effectiveness, but it works for a while. It is working, Bolsanaro got sold as the candidate who would deal with the corruption problem. Never mind that he has always been a corrupt politician himself.

Lula would have cleansed the floor with him despite all the porpaganda, but he's a political prisoner barred from running.



I know those sects in Brazil. They're corrupt as hell and don't even disguise it. They're not religions, they're criminal enterprises. Don't mistake them with american (US) evangelicals. There is no depth to these brazilian ones, they're nothing a good inquisition wouldn't clear out in a few months. Unfortunately we can't have one any longer, sometimes they were useful...
The fools who follow these "churches" would then waste their lives on some different foolishness, they're not even literate enough to actually follow a religion of the book. Cut down the parasites manipulating them and the whole thing collapses.

I am tired of idiots today...

I do not confuse sincere and genuine religious convictions of individual people with activist church leaders making money and/or playing a role on the political stage.
I do not confuse the few evangelicals of my country with evangelicals of the US. And I do not confuse US evangelicals with Brazil evangelicals. The differences are too big. But there are overlaps as well.
That big Pew poll I attached to a post above, telling a lot.
What I tried to explain is that current societal culture is wide open for activist movements, and activist church leaders, that tap into religious convictions of people.
That is an emerging trend that can have and has in some countries significant effects that change the normal political balances.
It is not the traditional left-right, not the traditional conservative-progressive, not the traditional populism, and it is easy for the elite (at least for now), to control voters with it.
.

 

[Takhisis]

Bolsanaro is no more evangelical than I am. Those churches in Brazil are badly disguised criminal operations to extract money from the fools. Their reach into the upper classes is zero, except insofar as elements from those classes use them and lead them.

And yet they've played an important role in defeating the pro-abortion bill in the Argentine Congress. So they aren't only money-makers. They are playing for power and are acting as a conduit for US-based Protestant revivalists to leverage their influence throughout the continent.

And tomorrow I'll dig up an article on the differences and similarities between Bolsonaro and Trump which I found last week.

I finally found it.
According to the author:

similarities

• they both overpower/bypass traditional media and prefer direct (one-way?) communication with their voters
• they both pretend to be outsiders but Bolsonaro's been a deputy for ages and Trump played at being a candidate several times, and they accuse traditional politicians of being ‘against the nation’ and build on their political incorrectness
• they both take advantage of widespread discontent
• they find minorities and immigrants to use as scapegoats: Mexico for Trump, Venezuelans for Bolsonaro
• they're both pro-military and want to return each to a past that didn't exist anyway
• they both favour simple answers to complex issues
• they're both in favour of torture
• they delegitimise their adversaries to the point that both threatened not to acknowledge the results if they lost the elections (and both have claimed that they didn't get the outright majority they say they really have because of electoral fraud)
• they both prefer dubious information and are against scientific facts and evidence

differences:

• different life stories: Trump is a millionaire with a heavy media presence, Bolsonaro came from a military unit
• Bolsonaro takes the racist/sexist rhetoric to a far deeper level
• they are both against democracy, but Bolsonaro actually believes in political violence, death squads and government by the military (Tak's note: this was written before Trump started cheering on physically assaulting the free press and making his equivocal statements on bombing newspapers and political opponents)
• economic programmes: Trump is or claims to be a nationalistic protectionist, while Bolsonaro has given carte blanche to a neoliberal guru, admitting that he has no clue about the economy
• the institutions they count on: Brazil's democracy and political institutions are far more recent and vunerable than those in the US
• Donald Trump has outright majorities in both houses of Congress and the Supreme Court; Bolsonaro has a wildly fragmented Congress and a Supreme Court he hasn't appointed (it's mentioned somewhere in a related article that there might be renovation within the next few years)

Bolsonaro's party chief says that they won't be selling off Petrobras ‘in the short term’.

Last but not least on the Bolsonaro issue, Noam Chomsky and 14 others condemn Bolsonaro in an open letter, which might make luiz build a shrine to the man.

Also, I notice that wim is so concerned by the situation that Hrothbern is still alive even after calling him an Argentine.

 

[Hrothbern]

Also, I notice that wim is so concerned by the situation that Hrothbern is still alive even after calling him an Argentine.

Eeeeeehhhh.
The Pope is no Brazilian.... my bad
wim... Wim Wenders ?

 

[Bootstoots]

As expected, Bolsonaro won easily. May he make Brazil great again, mostly by empowering the police to kill far more people than the military dictatorship would have dreamed of. My forecast is for a Duterte-like presidency. There's an outside chance of a military autogolpe, but more likely that will prove unnecessary. The form of government that is on the rise in the early 21st century, namely illiberal democracy/electoral authoritarianism, should suffice.