innonimatu
the resident Cassandra
- Joined
- Dec 4, 2006
- Messages
- 15,068
My forecast is for a Duterte-like presidency. There's an outside chance of a military autogolpe, but more likely that will prove unnecessary. The form of government that is on the rise in the early 21st century, namely illiberal democracy/electoral authoritarianism, should suffice.
No, there is one big difference: Duterte is kind of nationalist, Bolsanaro would sell his own mother to the US. He will sell everything he can in Brazil. The vast majority of brazilians are going to suffer as a consequence.. He got the (reluctant, only because they're not sure about him) support of the local plutocrats in this last stretch of the campaign, I'm guessing he'll deliver to those because he doesn't care about those consequences. And they in turn will provide all the propaganda cover Bolsanaro needs , at least until the next international downturn (2019?) or the consequences of increasing even more the inequality and corruption (2022 or later...) sink Brazil even further.
My guess is that he'll only try a coup if the world economy makes him toast sooner that the local situation by itself. And then it'll likely fail. Otherwise he'll built his own network of graft from the existing ones in Brazil and rely on that. Doing a coup now would not only be unnecessary, it would mean that he'd get the full blame for whatever happened later.
But then again I think that he's more a political idiot who got a stroke of luck rather than a bright political strategist. Which means that trying to reason what he'll do is not going to lead to good guesses.