NFL 2016 regular season

[caketastydelish]

The AFC is stacked though. You have the Steelers who seem to be guaranteed to rack up a minimum of 30+ points each game, you have the Bengals who are still formidable, you have the Denver Broncos who seem just as tough this year as last year. Meanwhile, their very opponents in this next game, the Texans... are also 2-0. And the Texans will probably continue to improve throughout the year as Osweiller adjusts to his teammates.

Every win is going to seriously count in terms of securing home field advantage for the playoffs. And when (several of) the other teams in the AFC are stacked just as much as the Patriots, playing them away is going to hurt.

edit: Ok, so only 24 points on the Bengals by the Steelers. That's still good, considering the Bengals are a solid team themselves.

 

[caketastydelish]

I'm not going to lie and say I've actually been watching the Texans play, but their 2-0 record tells me this:

The 2015 regular season Texans were a playoff team... who made it there with a list of 3rd string, nobody quarterbacks, some of which weren't even used to playing in the Texans system.

The Texans seemed to calculate that knowledge and decide "If we are a playoff team with nobody (semi respectable) at the QB position, we are a top tier team with even a mediocre (by NFL standards of course) one."

The Texans went all in for Osweiller. Is he the next Aaron Rodgers? I highly doubt it. Here is the difference: Take away Aaron Rodgers, replace him with a nobody QB, and Green Bay basically doesn't have a chance to be a playoff team.

Take away Osweiller, replace him with a nobody QB, and the Texans are still a playoff team... the 2015 Texans already proved that.

I don't particularly keep up with the Texans but based on what I hear, they have a solid defense, a nice running back, surprisingly decent wide receivers. Give that team even Jay Cutler and they have a shot of going to the superbowl.

On paper the Texans are structured similarly to the Rams. There are some differences of course. One is the Texans are just a better overall team. Second, is they seem to have found their answer at the QB position.

I wouldn't go as far to call the Texans favorites to go the superbowl. I made my prediction long before the season started that I would go with the Steelers, and I will stick to my guns.

But there were way too many people mocking the Texans for taking Osweiller, and the Texans (at least so far) seem to have the last laugh.

edit: tl;dr if the Texans were already a formidable team with their right hand tied behind their back (aka nobody for QB) just imagine how good they would be with a QB who even remotely knows what they're doing.

edit 2: My math tells me the Texans are averaging 21 points per game thus far. One of those games were against a team that beat them 30-0 in the playoffs last year. Love him or hate him, Osweiller has clearly improved the team.

edit 3: (sorry for my obsession on the subject) You know, the betting spread for Texans/Patriots is absurd. Texans win by only 1.5? Are people out of their minds? I would honestly consider a Texans victory... even if Brady + Gronk were still around. Brady is gone, Brady's backup is also gone, Gronk is probably gone (and even if he plays he won't quite be himself)... and they're up against a team with a defense that can indefinitely keep them in the game, and an offense which while undeniably is not as good as the defense, is tremendously better than they used to be and generally improving every game while their new shiny QB adjusts to the team.

If the betting spread were in caketastydelish land instead of in Vegas, it would be whereabouts of Texans winning by 12 points.

 

[caketastydelish]

The patsies have lost their minds.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/report-patriots-pressuring-garoppolo-to-play-hurt/ar-BBwpzFk?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartanntp

Guys, calm down... The Pats have already said that Garropolo is the backup QB for Thursday. If Brussett goes down, gimpy Garrapolo comes in

I'm unaware of this. Unless you're referring to something similar to the source I linked? Which was only a rumor, although it is likely true. But even then... (from my source)

Garoppolo is still struggling to lift his right arm, so it is unrealistic to believe he’ll be ready to perform effectively against the Texans, who are ranked third in both points and yards allowed through two weeks.

Howe notes that all signs indicate it would be “unrealistic” to think Garoppolo can face Houston, but the Patriots have not yet ruled him out.

Talk about laying it on thick, huh? Even if Garoppolo is able to play, it’s unlikely that he will be close to 100 percent. He is rumored to have suffered a sprained AC joint in his throwing shoulder during Sunday’s game against the Miami Dolphins when linebacker Kiko Alonso put a big hit on him

Actually, Tim was right.

Manning might be able to grasp enough to manage the game Thursday, which is what they need. One shot to the head for a fifteen yard penalty and a trip through the concussion protocol and they have a wide receiver taking the snaps. That's worth doing, and every Texans D lineman knows it.

Manning of course is not the man for the job, but if Brissett goes down (who if I understand has demonstrated he himself is not good to begin with), they'll want someone who is halfway respectable.

They're playing one of the top defenses in the league, and they currently have two backups:

1) Someone who "is still struggling to lift his right arm"

2) A wide receiver. However decent he may have been in college that's far from a guarantee in the NFL... And that goes without saying if he's their best wide receiver forced to play QB, the team loses their best wide receiver as an actual wide receiver. Gronk is also probably not playing, or if he does play won't be at 100%.

to be fair, you said Garoppolo "hands the ball off for the rest of the game."

That would be just as bad. Do you realize how completely predicable it is to run the ball the entire game? Even the Rams threw in some pass plays against the 49ers, but since they ran the vast majority of the time, they were able to anticipate and stop them. Texans defense is much better than 49ers defense, by the way. Likewise, the Rams running back is better than that of the Patriots.

also, keep this in mind. If the Pats are actually serious about preferring Garoppolo as the backup rather than Edelman, that means a guy with an injury, far less than his 100%, is still a better QB than Edelman. Sorry Mobboss, but this means you're probably wrong about Edelman being decent.

 

[BirraImperial]

They could have Edelman on as QB and throw some quick screen passes, or fake run plays.


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[caketastydelish]

They could have Edelman on as QB and throw some quick screen passes, or fake run plays.


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Again, even that is not that far off from what the Rams actually did against the 49ers. Fat load of good that did them.

 

[Light Cleric]

I know the Patriots treat players like they're disposable but this is ridiculous even for them

 

[Sommerswerd]

There is another angle in this, which is Garrappolo's future... When Brady comes back he's done, with no chance of seeing the field unless Brady gets hurt (or suspended again) This is his shot, and he may not get a better one in his entire career. The NFL is chock-full of teams desperate for a decent QB, and you gotta think Garrappolo's agent was already packing his suitcase for him after that week 1 win. Two touchdowns into the Miami game the guy was probably asking for twice as much money as before, seeing dollar signs in his eyes.

Now he is at a critical juncture... If he can come back, maybe not even necessarily this game, but just come back, he proves he has franchise QB potential right? A guy who can win, score, play hurt, recover quickly from injury... Who knows how many virgins a team like Cleveland, or Washington or Minnesota would sacrifice to get something like that? OTOH, if he does not come back, he's just another glass-jawed flash-in-the-pan. I wouldn't count him out... the world is filled with many things, and many drugs... I hear that cortisone shtuff's a doozy

 

[caketastydelish]

The Patriots offense (without Garoppolo) couldn't do anything against the Miami Dolphins defense. The Texans defense is much better than that of the Dolphins. Hell, even the Texans offense I would argue is as good as that of the Dolphins, possibly better as well. edit: Upon looking it up, that confirmed my suspicions. The Dolphins offense, ranked number 25, put up some whoop-ass on the Patriots once Garoppolo left the field. Why can't the Texans offense, ranked number 19, do the same?

I would honestly bet on the Texans to cover the spread even if you removed Texans offense and replaced it with Cleveland Browns offense, supposing Texans defense gets to still play.

As it stands, this is a blowout. The close spread has got to be a knee-jerk reaction to the Patriots historically being a much more successful team than the Texans, and the Patriots haven't lost a home game since 2014. Of course, that completely ignores all current factors going into this game.

The patriots D (which are rated 25th overall) knows no matter how many times they stop the (underrated) Texans Offense, their own offense will put up few points if any, and that sucks.

It's also worth noting that the Patriots D would be ranked even worse were it not for the Patriots O keeping the D off the field for their first game and part of their second game. I wouldn't count on the Patriots O to keep the D off the field.

The fact that Texans D is better than Patriots D should be considered indisputable. Now let's talk about offense?

QB:

Texans: Brock Osweiller. Osweiller is not the next Aaron Rodgers, but he doesn't have to be in order to be better than a third string QB who is a total joke, as has already been demonstrated by his performance against the Dolphins

Patriots: A third string nobody QB. And if he also goes down, which is likely to happen as Tim pointed out, they're even more screwed.

Wide receiver:

Texans: wisely invested their first round pick in a wide receiver which has clearly helped them.

Patriots: Gronk (technically not a WR but we all know what he's capable of) who is injured. So that leaves... Edelman. We all know how many balls he caught with a crappy QB throwing him the ball. Also, the odds of him being the QB himself are very real, meaning they lose their own best WR at the same time.

Running back:

Ok, so the running backs appear to be evenly matched. Even so, some experts consider the Texans RB to be several steps ahead of the Patriots.

The icing on the cake, of course, is one of these teams is going to be forced to run the ball so much it will be easy to predict. The other teams' RB will have some element of surprise.

I would honestly consider this current Houston Texans team to be the third best AFC team, behind only the Steelers (number 1) and Broncos (number 2). Keep in mind, that supposes the Patriots are at full strength. In which case I'd give them number 4. The Patriots as they are today, are arguably worse than the Cleveland Browns.

 

[caketastydelish]

Jacoby Brissett leading the Patriots put up a total of 3 points on the board against the Dolphins. The Dolphins! For those that don't look things up, Miami's defense is ranked number 27... And by the time Jacoby Brissett actually showed up, Dolphins D was exhausted because they'd already been on the field for so long, not to mention humiliated and demoralized.

If they can't do well against that, how are they going to even remotely stand a chance against the third highest defense in the league?

Yes, the Patriots "beat" the Dolphins... and almost all of those were scored in the first half, with Garoppolo on the field. The several interceptions Patriots D got were lucky, and obviously not something they can count on. Especially considering unlike the Dolphins, the Texans have no reason whatsoever to make risky plays. And even if they do, the Texans offense, ranked 6 positions higher than that of the Dolphins, would still be more likely to succeed.

Garoppolo either won't be there for the entire duration of this game against the Texans, or will play injured.

Wake up people, this isn't going to be a close game. I don't care about the fact that the Patriots have 4 rings and the Texans have 0. I don't care about the fact that the Patriots haven't lost a home game since 2014. I'm not even denying the Patriots are a solid team this season. But there are two problems: 1) they aren't a solid team when basically all of the very most important players are either injured or gone completely. 2) the Houston Texans are formidable in their own right. The Texans beat the Chiefs, the Chiefs beat the Chargers, and the Chargers themselves completely dominated the Jaguars.

Also (and to a lesser extent, obviously) lol@the Ravens only beating the Jags by one point. The Ravens have the number one defense in the league. Even if that's only partially because they've faced easy teams, they still have a solid defense. Honestly the only reason why the Ravens sucked last year is because of tons of injuries on the roster. As a result of a crappy season due to sheer bad luck they got great draft picks... on a team that was already solid to begin with.

"But Ravens offense isn't putting up many points!" The Denver Broncos were rated number 1 in defense last year, with a mediocre offense. People doubted them time and time again, until finally the Broncos won the superbowl.

Now with all that being said, do I think the Ravens are superbowl favorites this year? Absolutely not. But only beating the Jaguars by 1 point means the Ravens aren't even a serious team. The Ravens may not be very top tier (even that is debatable, we won't know that until time goes on) but at the very least the Ravens are comfortably better than the Jags.

bbbbuuuttt the Ravens only beat the Cleveland Browns by 5 points and the Browns suck!

So? Guess who also only barely got by the Cleveland Browns. Yep... you guessed it. Last year's Denver Broncos. To count the Ravens out of the picture over a game that they WON, even if it's against a bottom ranked team, is absurd.

 

[BirraImperial]

Main lines on sportsbooks are being quite generous to the Pats...Honestly, I agree that there's no way they can win this without Garappolo...Of course, you have to play the game and anything could happen, but it's not looking very good for them now...


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[caketastydelish]

Again, this is people taking into consideration that the Patriots have 4 rings (all Belichick era as well) versus the Texans 0, and that the Patriots in previous seasons have been much better than the Texans. And that the Pats haven't lost at home since 2014.

This is of course completely ignoring the fact that virtually every critical player on the Patriots roster either won't be playing, or will play injured.

And people stupidly underestimating this thoroughly solid Houston team, just because of mediocre performances from previous seasons.

I tried betting on some sites on the Houston/Pats game but it wouldn't let me because it's apparently illegal to do so where I live.

This is some incredibly easy money, if you ever wanted it.

 

[caketastydelish]

If the Patriots are still alive by halftime they should consider forfeiting the game to save themselves from more public humiliation.

The best part about it?

a) based on Las Vegas, I'd say most people won't see it coming

b) they'll beat the Patriots in Foxborough... say goodbye to your beautiful record of having not lost a home game since 2014

c) Most of this could have easily been avoided if Tom Brady weren't such a cheater. He cheated his way to the superbowl, then stole a ring which rightfully belonged to my team. The Seahawks had WAY more key injuries on their roster that day than the Patriots, by the way, and they still almost won. Also, some of the people on this very forum (pats fans of course) made the most pathetic arguments to try and justify Caroll's decision to not run Lynch, just to try to justify the Patriots having been the better team that day, even though the Seahawks statistically out played them and any person who is even remotely logical knowing that you should run lynch on 1st and goal, or at the very least give a fake pump to Lynch to fool the defense (which they didn't even do that, either)

To make it all the sweeter, losing this game has major implications for the home field advantage come playoff time. The Steelers, The Broncos, even the Texans themselves have a very good chance of having more wins in the regular season than the Patriots will. Honestly at this point I wouldn't even entirely count the Ravens out, who technically have the #1 defense in the league.

Everyone in the world and their dog has told me the Patriots will go to the superbowl this year, and I told them no. They were the favorites, after all. Patriot/Brady fanboys have teased me for years about the Seahawks losing in the superbowl, and how Brady will apparently break Joe Montana's record for rings, and become "the greatest QB of all time."

Nope! You'd be lucky to go to the superbowl this year, and even luckier to go next year where you'll be even more old and out of shape than you were this year. Peyton Manning got drastically worse in his last season, where he also turned 40... one big difference is he had a defense that could carry him. The patsy defense, ranked number 23? I doubt it could improve that much even by next season. Especially if you win your laughably easy division and therefore get bad priority in the draft.

Us Seahawks fans will be laughing our ass off while the Patriots get humiliated in their own stadium tomorrow, and I certainly hope Colts fans will join us.

The Texans defense/ Patriots offense mismatch is so great that Osweiller & friends could practically still win the game even if the Texans D single handedly played the game for them while they watched drunk from the sidelines and had a good time. Also, even the Texans offense is quite a bit better than people give them credit for. And when they're up against one of the worst defenses in the league, this will be absolutely hilarious.

Remember: The Texans last year were a team with third string quarterbacks while the Patriots had a solid one. Those roles have been completely reversed, not including the fact that Patriots D isn't even comparable to Texans D.

 

[Light Cleric]

see Sommersword this is where "calm down" is appropriate

 

[caketastydelish]

Oh, I'd say I have no reason whatsoever to be hyperventilating for this game. Pats fans on the other hand...

 

[Sommerswerd]

I am waiting to see if they can convince Garroppolo to play or not... I need to decide whether to start him or drop him from my fantasy team. I currently have Wilson, Gabbert, Garroppolo and Dalton. Two of those guys need to go, and I cant decide whether I think the 49ers will upset (and thus I should start Gabbert), Wilson will repeat Cam Newton's performance (start Wilson), the 49ers Sea game will be a defensive duel (like the Sea v. LAR game) AND Garropolo starts (in which case I start Garroppolo), or Garroppolo sits (in which case I start Dalton).

 

[caketastydelish]

I know the season just started and data is limited, but there's no reason to believe Wilson will repeat Cam Newton's performance.

Wilson didn't do much against the Dolphins while playing in Seattle, and the only way the Dolphins can be a good team is against a totally crippled opponent. Not including that Seattle D is much better than Dolphins D.

Then the next game, Wilson did even less against the Rams, and the Rams were slaughtered by the 49ers.

I know players fluctuate game to game and anything can happen. But I would not gamble on Wilson repeating Cam Newton's performance.

 

[mrt144]

I know the season just started and data is limited, but there's no reason to believe Wilson will repeat Cam Newton's performance.

Wilson didn't do much against the Dolphins while playing in Seattle, and the only way the Dolphins can be a good team is against a totally crippled opponent. Not including that Seattle D is much better than Dolphins D.

Then the next game, Wilson did even less against the Rams, and the Rams were slaughtered by the 49ers.

I know players fluctuate game to game and anything can happen. But I would not gamble on Wilson repeating Cam Newton's performance.

Until Bevell's play designs and calls shows otherwise, I don't think it's likely for the Hawks to score a TD.

 

[BirraImperial]

If NE somehow wins it today, I would say Bill Belichick is the GOAT of coaches...It's impressive how despite many setbacks, and many injured players, the Pats are still a formidable opponent and can somehow still manage to win games.

 

[caketastydelish]

If NE somehow wins it today, I would say Bill Belichick is the GOAT of coaches...It's impressive how despite many setbacks, and many injured players, the Pats are still a formidable opponent and can somehow still manage to win games.

He's already arguably the GOAT of coaches. I don't think his legacy will be tarnished over a game which on paper, was completely unfair to begin with.

Another reason why I think the Patriots AT FULL STRENGTH would probably still lose to the Texans, is a top ranked defense is statistically more likely to beat a top ranked offense.

For example, if the "unstoppable" Carolina Panthers O couldn't pass Denver D in the Super bowl, why on earth would the heavily crippled Patriots O do anything against the similarly dominant Texans D?

This spread shows just how simple minded most gamblers apparently are. I'm guessing a lot of these bets are made by casual fans who don't know anything about statistics. Offense is "sexier" because they are the ones who typically score, and therefore are far more likely to sell Jerseys. This is in spite of the fact that defense is overwhelmingly more likely to win games, especially in a case when one teams "top ranked offense" is playing on life support at best. And the other teams offense is much better than it used to be, something that is largely being ignored as well.

edit: I will also add some people probably think the Patriots "played way too conservatively on purpose" just because of their huge lead. I doubt it. The Dolphins were one play away at the end from tying the game if it resulted in a TD instead of an int. Ryan Tannehill is no Aaron Rodgers, but he still had a very real chance of pulling that off. I've seen plenty of QBs at his level and worse do so in those situations... and I've seen QBs make those hail maries against far better defenses than that of the Patriots, which has demonstrated to be a pushover if their own offense doesn't keep them off the field. Does that mean nothing to you?

"bbbutt buuttt the Pats D made lots of interceptions!" Yep... against an absolutely desperate, coming from behind Dolphins O that was forced to make incredibly risky plays to have any chance of catching up... which they almost did, by the way. While it's technically possible that Texans O (which is better than Dolphins O by the way) might make similar risky throws, I wouldn't hold my breath on it.

 

[vivalamexico]

One has to think that Brisset will be better with a some prep though.
For my part, regardless of the circumstances, I will never pick against BB.

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