NFL 2016 regular season

I've been a pretty big critic of Russell Wilson as being "overhyped" but the Seahawks problem right now is A)Their offensive coordinator is not very good and B)their offensive line has been an unbelievable dumpster fire for a few years now. Apparently "actually played football" is pretty low on their list of qualifications for playing football, like having a STARTING LEFT TACKLE in George Fant who never IIRC played offensive line in his life before this year. I think it's early to say the wheels have come off him yet. Maybe they think because they have a mobile quarterback they can just throw anyone out there but it's obviously not working.

I'm not penciling Prescott as a top 5 QB for the next decade or anything, I just think he's far more likely to end up on the good side than turn into another Kaepernick/Robert Griffin/<insert other flash-in-the-pan QB>.

I dunno, for me the Kaep replacement was never about Kaep being better in that moment than Smith. It was more that Kaep had more upside than Smith. Smith was competent and safe. He'd never lose you the game, but he wouldn't really win you one either. Kaepernick, with his speed, the arm, and deep accuracy was the sort of player with the potential to put the team on his back and win games. Which he did that year. So, at least to my mind, the conversation was never "which of Smith and Kaepernick is better right now," but rather, "which player has more upside going forward considering the receiving corps and coaching staff we had," and in light of that information I think it made more sense to go with Kaepernick, who was never not a project QB. Even though he's decidedly failed to pan out, I still think opting for Kaepernick made the most sense at the time.

You obviously know the team better than me and I've long had a bias towards Alex Smith in thinking he's underrated but I think it would have been smart to wait to bring in Kaepernick for another year or so, though I would have eventually switched to Kaepernick down the road. Alex Smith was having a really good year before he got concussed and that defense was filthy. It seemed to make more sense to keep a veteran in on a team like that where you didn't need to hit home runs when you had Frank Gore and a defense like they had, not to mention that Alex Smith did have some firepower in him when it absolutely had to come out.

Maybe Harbaugh thought there wouldn't be another window to do it in his tenure (and he may have been right).
 
This goes to what I've been saying is still the open question about Prescott. He has the physical pieces, but is he the guy who can change the course of a game for the better? He hasn't been tested on that.

Alex Smith lacks the physical ability to be that game changer; not ideal but can be worked around since he is also generally not going to get you into a game that needs changing. But the list of players who seem to have the physical ability but prove to frequently get a team into bad situations and then usually not get them out is pretty long. I'm lookin' at you, Jay Cutler, since you've somehow managed to stay at the top of the active portion of that list for an astonishingly long time.
 
Cowboys looked pretty good vs. Detroit. They had nothing to play for, but Detroit did. Cowboys still owned them.
 
This goes to what I've been saying is still the open question about Prescott. He has the physical pieces, but is he the guy who can change the course of a game for the better? He hasn't been tested on that.

Alex Smith lacks the physical ability to be that game changer; not ideal but can be worked around since he is also generally not going to get you into a game that needs changing. But the list of players who seem to have the physical ability but prove to frequently get a team into bad situations and then usually not get them out is pretty long. I'm lookin' at you, Jay Cutler, since you've somehow managed to stay at the top of the active portion of that list for an astonishingly long time.
This is a great way of putting it. If you're going into the 4th quarter and are losing, but you're the Giants, Pats, Steelers or even the Saints, you know there's a pretty good chance that you're gonna come away with the win anyway... whereas with most teams, its time to start heading for the parking lot to beat the traffic.

Even Romo, for all his choke-tastic flaws, was statistically pretty good at coming from behind. So can Prescott be "the guy"? Can he be one of those trusty comeback-kid QBs that reliably take the game into their hands and come from behind to win those tough playoff games?
 
Romo was even better at throwing his team into a hole by being a bonehead. I'd be interested in knowing how many of his fourth quarter game winning drives came after he put the other team ahead by throwing a pick when he was supposed to be running out the clock.
 
Wasn't that the big talking point about Romo a few years back? His propensity for 4th quarter comeback wins?

Anyway, as I said that was rather the problem with Smith on the 49ers. If the 9ers were matched up against a team they were clearly better than, then they would win. Smith would go 170 yds with a TD and no INTs, Gore would rush for 80-100 yds, and the 49ers would quietly put away a 17-10 victory. If they went up against a team they were level with, it would generally come down to what happened in the 1st quarter. If the opposing team secured an early TD then you knew you were in for a slow, agonizing strangulation. The team was built to play this really clinical, methodical style where they secured an early lead and then ground out a victory by not making any mistakes and not giving up too much. If the team ever got behind or if the game was close down the stretch against a team with playmakers (e.g. the Seahawks, Patriots, Saints, Giants, Packers), then the game was assuredly over. It's what happened in the 2011 Playoffs. Granted Smith came out with some heroics against the Saints. But against the Giants we see the sorts of problems I'm talking about. They jumped to an early lead, but the Giants stuck around. Smith isn't the sort of player that's going to deliver a dagger late in the game. And Eli, for all of the (deserved) crap he gets, is, or at least was that sort of player in 2011. I think that's really what spurred the decision to make the switch the next year. A good defense is going to get you into the playoffs, but once you get into the playoffs there are simply too many playmaking QBs that are going to inevitably find holes in your good defense down the stretch, and if you don't have a playmaker to match you're SOL. And Kaepernick was finding comparable success at the time to what Smith was putting up. Statistically they were similar, but, again, Kaepernick had more upside. And his legs and arm were a great fit for the read-option offense Harbaugh was running at the time.

I think the subsequent playoffs highlight this quite well also. Kaepernick, through some flashy plays, piled on a big early lead on the Packers and just put them away. This is the platonic ideal of how you beat a team with a playmaking quarterback. You put the game away early. The lead was just too wide for Rodgers to really impact the game, despite passing for 250 yards and 2 touchdowns, and despite the Packers scoring 31 points overall. In the NFC Championship, the 49ers trailed against the Falcons for nearly the entire game, but managed to scratch out a win through some late-game heroics by Kaepernick, Davis, and Gore. I don't think the 49ers would have been able to win either of those games with Smith.
 
The Cowboys' biggest win for 2016 was probably the draft. Dak Prescott was a 4th-round pick (135th) out of Miss State. Ezekiel Elliott was their first-round pick (4th overall), and he is also producing well. Dallas actually lost out on Paxton Lynch for QB (to Denver, I think) before settling for Prescott. That looks to have been a blessing.
 
I took a look at Prescott's stats... I see now where my comment came from. I was thinking of the headlines I'd caught for the two games he played prior, against the Bucs and 49ers... the stats in those games were lackluster and got my wheels spinning with the comparison to Kaepernick. Prior to that, I have to admit that I was fully on the Dak-Prescott-is-the-second-coming bandwagon.

Regardless, the Cowboys are giving up a known commodity (that their fans have learned to love to hate) in exchange for a dynamic, exciting new guy with tons of potential... just like the 49ers did. We'll see how it goes...
 
Well, there is another difference. The 'niners gave up a first pick quarterback who still had probably ten years left in his tank. The Cowboys are giving up an undrafted dingbat who has spent all the years in the tank that he is likely to spend. Prescott or no Prescott how many years do you really think Romo can play if someone makes him a starter?
 
Sam Bradford, Matt Stafford, JaMarcus Russel, and Tim Couch were first overall draft picks. Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Russel Wilson were not. 1st Overall Pick is not a guarantee of NFL success, nor does it really matter all that much once you've got a year or two of NFL data to look at. 1st overall draft picks are far more valuable before they've been used than after.
 
Prescott so far has struggled mightily while under pressure. Given the historically good O-Line and great rushing game he doesn't need to worry about that normally, but if he faces a great D-line like say New York he's gonna fail again. I mean his worst games so far are against Philly and the two NYG games if you can get to him with a 4 man rush he breaks down fast.
 
The Cowboys' biggest win for 2016 was probably the draft. Dak Prescott was a 4th-round pick (135th) out of Miss State. Ezekiel Elliott was their first-round pick (4th overall), and he is also producing well. Dallas actually lost out on Paxton Lynch for QB (to Denver, I think) before settling for Prescott. That looks to have been a blessing.

I wonder if Elway should have drafted Dak instead of Paxton...Prescott seems like the better choice so far...
 
I wonder if Elway should have drafted Dak instead of Paxton...Prescott seems like the better choice so far...

The "so far" must be emphasized. So far, Prescott's rookie year bears a remarkable resemblance to Big Ben's rookie year:

1. Drafted by the team with no intention to play him as a rookie.
2. Winds up playing anyway due to injury to starter.
3. Walks into a situation where there is a strong team around him - good O line + very good RB + good
enough defense so he doesn't have to be The Man.
4. Mostly didn't "look like a rookie" - please note that the Giants with the same DC, scheme, and quality of personnel made
Tom Brady look ordinary in two Super Bowls.

In short he was put in a position to succeed, and was able to do so, which IMO is no small thing.

Does this mean Prescott will have the same career as Ben? Of course not. Way too many variables in play. See Bridgewater, Teddy
amongst others. Do I think it is an indication that the odds favor Prescott having a successful career? Yes. But it will be 2-3 years before we have a definitive answer.

And for the record I doubt the Cowboys make the Super Bowl. I think some combination of the defense getting exposed + the rookie factor will cause them to lose.
 
Looks like Romo's in for Sunday
 
Looks like Romo's in for Sunday
aaaand as if on queue...
The family that coaches together gets fired together.
great stuff guys:goodjob:

Seriously though, what do you guys think about this? I think that this is a major nerves-test for Prescott. Up to this point he had relatively low pressure... he had nothing to lose. It was assumed by everyone that Romo would be the starter upon his return regardless of how well or poorly Prescott played. And since Romo was injured, there was no chance of him losing his temp job to Romo. So he was basically free to play his heart out, relatively worry free.

But now, everyone agrees that the job is basically his to lose. So now he has all the expectations on his shoulders, with no question whatsoever that Romo is ready and willing to step in and snatch it all away if he should falter. Do you guys think this pressure is real or am I just cooking up a good yarn? If it is real... any bets on how Dak holds up?
 
Last edited:
I don't think Prescott's going to get crushed by expectations. The playoffs this year are going to be a learning experience
for him - continuing the Roethlisberger parallel, Ben lost his rookie playoff game. I look on playoff pressure as a rather
different thing from expectations.
 
So, just hypothetical'ing this to death... Let's say Prescott stinks up the place, gets the hook with the Cowboys down 3 scores in the 3rd. Romo comes in and saves the day, heroically winning the game, and then proceeds to start the remaining games and wins the Superbowl. Is Dak the starter next year?
 
Yes, because Romo these days is about as durable as sugar glass and I think even Jerry realizes that.
 
Back
Top Bottom