NFL fantasy football strategies and discussion

[Whomp]

Let's talk about how you like constructing, organizing and managing your fantasy team.

I know some of you are in a league here but hopefully you can give away some of your trade secrets.

In the past, I've used a baseline value approach to picking players. I think I need to broaden it out to a average position method and even add a consistency method. Some say it is a waste but is it useful in head to head?

IE Gore scored less pts than Westbrook last year but was more valuable week to week

I've also learned that 3 year WRs tend to be explosive and should likely rank higher than you think.

Share your thoughts, musings, lists, whatever...

 

[Darkness]

Probably not much help, but I have 4 simple rules:

- Avoid injury-prone players.
- Don't believe anyone that claims you have to pick running backs in the first two rounds.
- Go for the best available, regardless of offensive position, but fill your starting slots first.
- No matter how hyped, kickers and defenses can wait until after round 10-11...

Does this work? No idea, but I did win the fantasy keeper league last year...

 

[Whomp]

I think the RB thoughts are interesting because I looked back 3 years ago at the 1st two rounds and there are only a few RBs that would be there today but all of the stud QB and WRs(x Ochocinco) are still there.

This is why I'm struggling with what to do with the 2nd pick. I'm almost inclined to go big QB Brady or Brees instead of RB which could be any of 5 to 6 guys.

Congrats on your winning Darkness!

 

[mrt144]

The pros and cons of pairing a receiver with QB on the same team:

Pro: Good weeks are even better. You deprive another team of benefiting from your QB's success.
Con: QB gets injured or doesn't perform as well as before. Bad weeks are worse. Your receiver isn't #1 or #2 (although there was a special case in NO where that didn't matter).

On drafting defenses and kickers;

Usually there will be 2 standout kickers and 2 standout defenses but rarely do they perform, on average, good enough to be better than your 3rd of 4th round pick.

 

[dgfred]

I think the RB thoughts are interesting because I looked back 3 years ago at the 1st two rounds and there are only a few RBs that would be there today but all of the stud QB and WRs(x Ochocinco) are still there.

This is why I'm struggling with what to do with the 2nd pick. I'm almost inclined to go big QB Brady or Brees instead of RB which could be any of 5 to 6 guys.

Congrats on your winning Darkness!

I struggle with the RB/QB Rd 1/2 question too. Seems the very best QBs are snatched up in the first round in many drafts, somewhat relieving the question but pissing me off highly when I am planning to grab them pick 2 .

 

[Darkness]

This is why I'm struggling with what to do with the 2nd pick. I'm almost inclined to go big QB Brady or Brees instead of RB which could be any of 5 to 6 guys.

Congrats on your winning Darkness!

Thanks.

IMHO, barring injury like last year, Brady and Brees are definately better picks in round two than any RB, as the real stud RBs will be gone then, leaving a bigger pool of 2nd tier fantasy RBs, which makes it a real crapshoot to determine which RB will have the best season. Barring injury you can be fairly certain that both Brees and Brady will be in the top 5 QBs, so IMHO the QB would be the safer pick...

 

[Whomp]

Well I'm leaning towards Brees. When you look at how many 20+ and 40+ passes he's tossed along with the yards and TDs over his career it's pretty hard to pass up. My hope is it will start a run on QBs since there's really only about 7 that I'd want on my team.

This brings me to pick 23 and 26 where there's a possibility all 7 QBs are gone, 3 or 4 WRs and the rest RBs. I'm pretty comfortable with the 12th to 15th best RBs to be honest. Is it me or does it look like there's only about 5 teams where you don't want their RBs?

The double dip has always seemed dubious in head to head only leagues but I've seen it work in total points leagues.

 

[downtown]

Forget the "quality" of the kicker. Every NFL kicker is accurate. Pick a kicker who plays for an electric offense. the PATs add up quicker than the 50 yard field goals.

 

[rhawn]

For the draft, planning is essential. I think its important to know all of the, say at least top 20 players at each position(QB, RB, WR). TE, K, and Def/ST are not as important. You should never pick a kicker before the last 2 rounds.

If you have a top 6 pick you should pick one of the stud running backs. After that there tends to be a dropoff in production. Its usually safe to pick one of the lesser tier backs at this point but you can pick one of the elite qb (Brees,Brady,Manning) or WR, especially if you play 3 WR in your league.

I would consider dividing players at the 3 main positions into tiers of at least 3 different orders to help organize yourself. If all the tier 1 RB are gone pick either a tier 2 RB or a tier 1 WR or QB. Most leagues run 2 RB and 2 or 3 WR making them more valuable than other positions where you can find other talent because less are being played. I would suggest drafting 2 RB and 2WR in the first 5 rounds to make sure you don't get the leavings.

Drafing 2 RB in the first two rounds is usually a good idea, because you play 2 and the RB position will usually generate more points than other positions. I would not draft TE before round 5 or 6 unless there is a run on them. I'd follow the same guidelines for defenses as well.

 

[Darkness]

Drafing 2 RB in the first two rounds is usually a good idea, because you play 2 and the RB position will usually generate more points than other positions.

I must strongly disagree here.
The top 25 pointmakers from last years CFC keeper league:

1 - Drew Brees (NO - QB) 380.66
2 - Philip Rivers (SD - QB) 348.76
3 - Aaron Rodgers (GB - QB) 346.22
4 - Jay Cutler (Den - QB) 337.04
5 - Kurt Warner (Ari - QB) 331.12
6 - Peyton Manning (Ind - QB) 310.18
7 - Donovan McNabb (Phi - QB) 291.34
8 - Matt Cassel (NE - QB) 290.72
9 - DeAngelo Williams (Car - RB) 289.60
10 - Michael Turner (Atl - RB) 278.00
11 - Chad Pennington (Mia - QB) 256.32
12 - Tony Romo (Dal - QB) 256.02
13 - Tyler Thigpen (KC - QB) 252.62
14 - Adrian Peterson (Min - RB) 246.50
15 - David Garrard (Jac - QB) 246.40
16 - Thomas Jones (NYJ - RB) 241.90
17 - Matt Forte (Chi - RB) 241.50
18 - Eli Manning (NYG - QB) 240.52
19 - Brett Favre (NYJ - QB) 235.38
20 - Matt Ryan (Atl - QB) 228.00
21 - Jason Campbell (Was - QB) 225.60
22 - LaDainian Tomlinson (SD - RB) 225.60
23 - Steve Slaton (Hou - RB) 223.90
24 - Larry Fitzgerald (Ari - WR) 221.10
25 - Clinton Portis (Was - RB) 220.50

Now I'm counting 1 WR, 8 RBs and 16 QBs (including the entire top 8).

Now maybe CFC leagues count points differently than other Fantasy Football leagues (I don't know, I've never played any other league than the ones at CFC), but these data would strongly suggest picking a QB in round 1 (or 2)....

 

[rhawn]

I must strongly disagree here.
The top 25 pointmakers from last years CFC keeper league:


Now I'm counting 1 WR, 8 RBs and 16 QBs (including the entire top 8).

Exactly. You only play one qb so its much easier to grab a qb that will generate points in a later round. The rb that produce many points go in the early rounds so that's when you should grab them.

 

[Darkness]

Exactly. You only play one qb so its much easier to grab a qb that will generate points in a later round. The rb that produce many points go in the early rounds so that's when you should grab them.

Again I must disagree. The QB's that will score major points are proven commodities. Everyone will try to get them, so you need to get there first.

Every year new RBs rise to prominence in fantasy football and stars plummet because of injuries.

So at QB you are much more likely to get good value for your pick while at RB it's either feast or famine. You can get a good RB in the later rounds. Rookies for example. I took Chris Johnson in one of the later rounds last year and he wound up as the 11th best RB (based on FF points).

After the big studs (Peterson, Turner, Williams, maybe one or two more) RBs are definately not my preference if a QB like Brees or Brady is available (which was Whomps dilemma in this thread, IIRC).

 

[Whomp]

It seems to me there's more RB's producing than I've seen in years. The opposite seems to be true at WR. There are some solid RB's around the 24th spot (2nd starter) that seem like a coin flip at WR on the 36th (3rd starter).

Cotchery, Breaston, Muhammad, Desean Jackson, Holt (maybe a little underrated?), Coles, Driver

Derrick Ward, Ryan Grant, Kevin Smith, Knowshon Moreno, McFadden, Barber could be highly productive at the back end of the 24.