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NFL playoffs confidence game

Discussion in 'Sports Talk' started by Timsup2nothin, Dec 31, 2019.

  1. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Deity

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    With only eleven games I always feel like the playoffs are too small a sample size for a regular pick'em contest to get me really into it. But this confidence game format has come to my attention, and of course this is my favorite sports forum, so I thought maybe we could try it. Here's the deal:

    Counting the super bowl there are eleven playoff games, so we each get eleven 'tokens' numbered one through eleven. You pick the winner (straight up, no spread) of each game by placing a token, and if you get it right the value of the token determines the points that you get. If you pick all eleven games right that will give you sixty-six points and the win, and the token values won't matter at all.

    But let's say you miss three, and someone else misses two. If the three that you missed were games where you really thought it could go either way and you used your one, three, and four tokens on them you end up with 58 points and a very respectable score. If your opponent that only missed two missed on games he was really confident about, where he used his eight and his ten, then you beat him handily since he only scored 48. So the token values matter, a lot.

    A lot of people run weekly confidence pools, so this shouldn't be totally out of left field. The thing that makes it more of a challenge for the playoffs is that you don't pick all the games at once. Do you want to hold on to your big token and hope the super bowl is a huge mismatch? Or do you spend all your big tokens on the more likely to be mismatched games of wildcard weekend? Up to you.

    This game is susceptible to being "meta-played" by looking at other players picks before making your own, so to keep it fair we will play by PM. Post here that you are in and I'll send you a PM with instructions and a deadline for submitting your first picks. When you opt in if there's anyone else you think might play flag them the same way I am flagging you.

    @Sommerswerd
    @Serutan
    @caketastydelish
    @Owen Glyndwr
    @rah
    @KMRblue1027
    @Light Cleric
     
  2. caketastydelish

    caketastydelish Deity

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    I’m in. That said, I’m a bit confused about the rules.
     
  3. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Deity

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  4. Sommerswerd

    Sommerswerd Rest in Peace Black Panther

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    Of course I'm in. Full disclosure, I've already started the New Years Eve imbibing in earnest and I only skimmed the OP... so I don't really get WTF this is all about but I saw... "game... NFL... @Timsup2nothin ... playoffs... @caketastydelish... pick'em... @Owen Glyndwr" and thought... yeah that's enough to go on... I'm in.

    Thanks Tim for inviting me. And Happy New Year. Don't do anything tha... uh... that doesn't really work... just don't get killed or arrested.
     
  5. rah

    rah Deity Supporter

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    Used to do this format for money. It's always interesting to see if people got low or high in the first weekend.
    I'm in. Berz, politics aside would probably be up for this.
     
  6. Serutan

    Serutan Eatibus Anythingibus

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    I'll give it a shot.
     
  7. Serutan

    Serutan Eatibus Anythingibus

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    Also, I'm old enough to see "confidence game" and think "scam". ;)
     
    rah likes this.
  8. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Deity

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    I got a good laugh out of that myself.
     
  9. topsecret

    topsecret Believer

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    Can I join?
     
  10. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Deity

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    Absolutely! My apologies for not thinking to invite you. I mostly just went through the people who participate in our regular pick'em game. Kinda surprised that I haven't heard from @Light Cleric @Owen Glyndwr or @KMRblue1027.

    With the deadline only half a day away I'm hoping this will get their attention.
     
  11. Sommerswerd

    Sommerswerd Rest in Peace Black Panther

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    Same :)

    As an aside... I'm not remotely young enough to use the term "same", but I picked it up from my kids... who are certainly oung enough to teach this old(ish) dog new tricks.
     
  12. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Deity

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    Deadline extended to 9PM Eastern time. I actually have no idea what made me think the original deadline was a good time, so that's a more than likely permanent change.
     
  13. KMRblue1027

    KMRblue1027 The Crown!

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    Sorry been a busy week for me. I'd need a better explanation of how it works but sure I'm in.
     
  14. Sommerswerd

    Sommerswerd Rest in Peace Black Panther

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    This reminded me of Star Trek was it where Picard is explaining to Data how on ancient Earth there used to be a thing called "The Con game"
     
  15. rah

    rah Deity Supporter

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    Probably not much better that the original explanation but I'll try

    The winner is the one that scores the most points, not the one that correctly predicts the most games (even though they might be the same)
    There are 11 games. 4 this week 4 next week 2 the following week and then the Super Bowl
    So each week you predict the winner of the games straight up (no spread) and assign a point value to each game (how confident you are in your prediction) 11 being the highest and 1 being the lowest. So there will be a total of 66 points. (SINCE YOU CAN ONLY USE EACH NUMBER ONCE)
    Pretty straight forward.

    Strategies. I've seem different ones used and all of them have won before.

    1. Use points 11,10,9,8 the first week and if you guess all four games right, you'll score 38 out of the possible 66 and have a good leg up on everyone and can afford to be wrong in the divisional round where the teams will be more equally matched and harder to predict.

    2. Use points 1,2,3,4 the first week and pray for upsets since if a couple happen those that use the first strategy will be in a bad spot. Save the 11 points for the SB so you have the chance to pick the underdog if you're behind or the favorite if you're ahead.

    3. Just assign the points passed on how good you feel about every game. (a true confidence strategy)

    4. A combination of the different ways. Which is usually what happens because people try to stick with one but find an exception and just mix it up.
     
  16. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Deity

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    So Rah has pointed out that there are actual strategies available. Obviously, there would be strategic ways to play if, for example, someone were ahead after the first weekend and you could see how they were picking in the second weekend. This is probably a good time to mention that as soon as I got the first set of picks in my inbox I sent out my picks to that player (Cake) before I looked at theirs. Not that I was worrying about y'all thinking I would cheat, but when I win I want that question already resolved.
     
  17. Serutan

    Serutan Eatibus Anythingibus

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    There's no "think" to it. :mischief:
     
  18. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Deity

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    I assumed there wouldn't be. That's why I don't need to cheat!
     
  19. Timsup2nothin

    Timsup2nothin Deity

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    So, here we go. Everybody's votes are in here:
    Spoiler :



    Topsecret
    Texans, 4
    Titans, 6
    Saints, 7
    Seahawks, 2


    caketastydelish
    Bills, #2
    Titans, #1
    Saints, #11
    Seahawks, #3


    Rah
    Seahawks 11
    Saints 8
    Titans 4
    Bills 3

    Serutan
    Buffalo, 1
    Seattle, 2
    Patsies, 3
    Saints, 6

    Timsup2nothin
    Saints 10
    Eagles 4
    Cheatriots 7
    Texans 8

    Sommerswerd
    Bills - 2
    Patriots - 11
    Saints - 10
    Eagles - 1

    KMRblue.
    Buffalo, 3
    Tenn, 5
    NOLA, 11
    Philly, 7


    Interesting totals. All seven players are on the Saints, for a total of 63 points. The other games are all splits. Altogether we only risked 21 points on the Bills and Texans game, so clearly that one inspired the least confidence.

    Total points risked:
    Spoiler :

    Texans 12/Bills 9
    Cheatriots 21/Titans 16
    Saints 63/Vikings 0
    Eagles 12/Squawks 18


    Update coming Monday.
     
  20. Sommerswerd

    Sommerswerd Rest in Peace Black Panther

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    Lol... aaand just like that... I lost :lol:
     

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