North Korean Missiles Can Hit Mainland US

The top layers (the "active layers") of permafrost ground can thaw so long as the deeper layers remain frozen.

I don't think Tim's description is incorrect.

Though you might be right that people don't understand how much Taiga biomes dominate at these Northern lattitudes.
I'm pretty sure they can't thaw by definition. They are thawing in places like Northern Alaska due to climate change and it's causing massive erosion problems and the eruption of methane pockets in Russia. But historically they don't melt. But I'm too lazy too google
 
If the ground thaws its not permafrost, it's taiga. Just saying. It's kind of in the name lol

In the US we tend to call lots of area tundra and permafrost when they really aren't. What we have in most of Canada, Alaska and even most of Russia is actually taiga. The real permafrost is a relatively small strip of land restricted to only the northernmost areas of those countries/states. Basically just the polar coastline plus some adjacent land.

I dunno Hobbs. I looked up Taiga and it talks a lot about the big conifer forests. On Adak the conifers only grow about eight feet tall because they can't go higher than their tap root depth, and the tap root runs into permanently frozen ground at about six feet. Permanently frozen means "perma-frost," as I was told when I was there. However, I looked up 'Tundra" and the definition does state 'where the sub-soil is permanently frozen,' so it appears the denizens of Adak were wrong and they are actually dealing with tundra, not perma-frost.
 
I'm pretty sure they can't thaw by definition. They are thawing in places like Northern Alaska due to climate change and it's causing massive erosion problems and the eruption of methane pockets in Russia. But historically they don't melt. But I'm too lazy too google
The subsoil can't thaw, not the topsoil. I read the Wikipedia article on permafrost which makes me an expert.
 
Great... Just what we need. And Trump with an itchy trigger finger...
 

To be more specific, this is the first ballistic missile they've launched over Japan. Two previous launches were for space.

People in Japan were woken up with automatic warnings from their phones to take cover.

Mattis was very specific in his warning to NK so I doubt there will be a tangible American response but this will certainly put a nail in the coffin for Japan's pacifism. They'll have all the support they need for militarization now.
 
Well I guess Trump has to put up or shut up. I think he will shut up and call it a victory.
 
Ryabkov (deputy head of Russian Foreign ministry) just made a statement that the UNSC can no longer make resolutions, pointing to the impossibility of a military solution.
Japanese militarization is definitely not in Russia's interests.
 
It is time for the second round of the battle of Tsushima!
 
Yeah, Baltic fleet is already en route.
But I would prefer Khalkhin-Gol over Tsushima.
 
My impression is that NK is signalling to be ready for the negotiation table with the big 3, SK and Japan.

The longer that takes, the longer they have to shoot now and then some rockets to have their own story: "that their great military strenght forced the other parties to negotiate an honorable solution"
 
There's nothing stopping them from declaring that to their people regardless of reality.
 
There's nothing stopping them from declaring that to their people regardless of reality.

As such true,
You know, it's like kids quarreling.... they both want to have the last word before being silenced by their elders.

US and SK started last week joint military exercises that usually do not happen this time of year. So NK reacts, in this case with small rockets, spiced up with one flying over Japan.
NK wants to be the one having the last word before a UN meeting forces a negotiation table.
Will be interesting to see which of the big 3 will try to prevent that UN resolution by pushing further on sanctions that have no effect anymore.
 
Trump pushes to quit the trade deal with South Korea and one old interview of the NYT of March 2016 with Trump to put that in the geopolitical context of Trump's Asia foreign strategy.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/sep/03/trump-south-korea-trade-north-nuclear-missile-crisis
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/27/us/politics/donald-trump-transcript.html?mcubz=3

From the NYT interview:
"HABERMAN [NYT]: So, you have said on several occasions that you want Japan and South Korea to pay more for their own defense. You’ve been saying versions of that about Japan for 30 years. Would you object if they got their own nuclear arsenal, given the threat that they face from North Korea and China?"
"TRUMP: Well, you know, at some point, there is going to be a point at which we just can’t do this [protection] anymore. ....... .......... long answer not really adding anything ........... ............ "
"SANGER [NYT]: So, just to follow Maggie’s thought there, though, the Japanese view has always been, if the United States, at any point, felt as if it was uncomfortable defending them, there has always been a segment of Japanese society, and of Korean society that said, “Well, maybe we should have our own nuclear deterrent, because if the U.S. isn’t certain, we need to make sure the North Koreans know that.” Is that a reasonable position. Do you think at some point they should have their own arsenal?
"TRUMP: Well, it’s a position that we have to talk about, and it’s a position that at some point is something that we have to talk about, and if the United States keeps on its path, its current path of weakness, they’re going to want to have that anyway with or without me discussing it, because I don’t think they feel very secure in what’s going on with our country, David. You know, if you look at how we backed our enemies, it hasn’t – how we backed our allies – it hasn’t exactly been strong. When you look at various places throughout the world, it hasn’t been very strong. And I just don’t think we’re viewed the same way that we were 20 or 25 years ago, or 30 years ago. And, you know, I think it’s a problem. You know, something like that, unless we get very strong, very powerful and very rich, quickly, I’m sure those things are being discussed over there anyway without our discussion.

The way I summarise that:
Unless the countries protected by the US nuclear deterrence give enough trade benefits to the US, enabling the US to be strong and rich again like earlier in the cold war, they are on their own, with or without their own nuclear defence.
And ofc Trump mentions somewhere in the interview that he is against nuclear proliferation, but after all: it is America First, the really consistent strategy of Trump.
The card he (Bannon) plays to protected countries/allies is: make us, the US, richer. Pay for the protection with better trade deals.
The card he (Bannon) plays to China/Russia: you end up surrounded by countries having their own nuclear (Japan, NK, SK, India, Pakistan, France, UK)
 
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Well, it is not the 50s anymore, and Japan or SK would be able to develop his own nukes in an eyeblink if they want. USA is already paid by its allies being allowed to protect its very allies, which keeps its huge political relevance in the world in an artificial way.

Trump&Co is doing an excellent job weakening USA. The drawback is a future where everybody and his dog has nukes.
 
Well, it is not the 50s anymore, and Japan or SK would be able to develop his own nukes in an eyeblink if they want. USA is already paid by its allies being allowed to protect its very allies, which keeps its huge political relevance in the world in an artificial way.

Trump&Co is doing an excellent job weakening USA. The drawback is a future where everybody and his dog has nukes.

Much of the richness of the US, and the ability to print dollars / having a trade & national debt, is based on the financial power of owning the reserve currency with the Dollar.
The Dollar pushed out the British Pound in 1944 as reserve currency (The US owning two-thirds of the global gold stock) and when their gold stock went down to one-third because of various economical issues and the Vietnam war, and Nixon had to abandon the Gold Standard security, they (Kissinger) made the Petrodollar deal with the Arab countries, forcing all oil to be purchased in dollars. In effect replacing the Gold Standard by the Oil Standard. All the dollars that foreign countries had were "always" valuable, because of the value in oil. Oil being indispensable. => The US could continue her domestic and trade debts by dollar printing.
Important to recognise here is that this mechanism means that every country in the world having no oil resources was paying to the US, which matched perfectly the nuclear protection by the US. A win-win for the Western countries.

Well... this era is coming to an end. The climate change means the end of fossil. And that means the end of the Oil Standard for the Dollar as global reserve currency and therefore the end of countries subsidising the US economy for every barrel of oil they buy.
Everybody knows that. The Sauds now massively selling off their crown jewels to the financial market, the new Crown Prince scrambling together an economy not based on oil revenue for 2030.
Postponing the end of the Dollar as reserve currency, lenghtening the fossil era, is imo one, if not the most important, of the key strategies of Trumps America First. Time he needs to tweak the trade position of the US in the world for the post-fossil era.
No wonder he is attacking the Paris Climate agreement and focussing on scale fossil, offering foreign countries even help with developing fossil resources in these foreign countries. The EU and China are his major opponents in this strategy because both need much more energy than they have resources (coal excluded).
Every bit of money invested now towards renewables, the hardware or the science/engineering must be disencouraged. Every bit of money invested in fossil, by companies that need 20 years depeciation of that capital, postpones the final end of the fossil/Dollar era.

TBH. This is imo basically the US geopolitical position in terms of isolationist hard power.
The difference between Trump and former leaders of the US and the (current) WH is that Trump is far more impatient for normal diplomatical solutions and has a higher risk appetite. Higher than the rest of the world is comfortable with.
The way he is using the NK crisis to intimidate Japan and SK into better trade deals, by increasing the local tensions and fear, is just an example of that risk appetite.
 
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The USD already was as important as the GBP as a reserve currency in 1920, half a century before it became the standard currency in the oil trade.

And oil doesn't explain why China holds 2/3rds of its FX reserves in dollars. Its holdings of treasuries alone are over a trillion $, more than twice the total reserves of Saudi Arabia.

Suggested reading: http://www.economist.com/node/21669969
 
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