Obama and Clinton tied in Texas

[cubsfan6506]

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/02/18/cnn-texas-poll-dead-heat-among-democrats/

A new CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll suggests the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination between Sens. Hillary Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois is a statistical dead heat in Texas, which holds primaries March 4.

In the survey, out Monday, 50 percent of likely Democratic primary voters support Clinton as their choice for the party's nominee, with 48 percent backing Obama.

But taking into account the poll's sampling error of plus or minus 4½ percentage points for Democratic respondents, the race is a virtual tie.

Two recent polls by other organizations also show the race statistically even. Map: National and state polling

"One reason the race appears to be tight is that Texas Democrats are having a hard time choosing between two attractive options," says CNN polling director Keating Holland.

"Likely Democratic primary voters would be equally happy if either candidate won the nomination, and they don't see a lot of difference between them on several top issues.

"Roughly a quarter of likely voters say they could change their minds in the next two weeks -- and not surprisingly, those people are splitting roughly equally between Clinton and Obama."

Many political strategists and analysts consider Texas and Ohio -- which also holds a March 4 primary -- must-win states for Clinton. Obama has won the past eight contests and is now ahead in the overall battle for delegates, 193 of which are at stake in Texas.

The new survey indicates Arizona Sen. John McCain is the clear favorite for the Republican presidential nomination.

Among Republicans, 55 percent of likely Texas GOP primary voters support McCain as their choice for nominee. Thirty-two percent back former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and 11 percent support home-state congressman and former Libertarian standard-bearer Ron Paul. The poll's sampling error for Republican respondents is 4 percentage points.

The CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll was conducted by telephone from Friday through Sunday. Pollsters talked to 1,506 adults in Texas, including 553 likely Republican primary voters and 529 likely Democratic primary voters.

McCain is the overwhelming front-runner in the fight for the Republican presidential nomination and party leaders have rallied around the candidate in an attempt for party unity.

The poll was released on the same day the only living former Republican president -- George Herbert Walker Bush, the current president's father -- endorsed McCain at an event in Houston. Watch McCain get a big boost »

But McCain has had trouble winning conservative voters. Just last week, McCain lost the conservative vote to Huckabee in the Virginia primary, according to exit polls. The new survey, though, suggests McCain may have better luck in Texas.

"It looks like McCain has made some inroads with conservative Republicans," Holland said.

"McCain is picking up a bare majority among conservative likely voters in the GOP primary. The McCain campaign probably wishes that number were higher, but it does mean that a McCain victory in Texas would not be based on the votes of moderates and independents, as has happened in several states in the past few weeks."

Texas Democrats and Republicans may not see eye to eye on the issues, but the poll suggests they do agree on what's the most important issue. Thirty-five percent of Democrats and an equal number of Republicans said the economy was the most important issue in their choice for president.

The second most important issue for Democrats was health care, at 23 percent, followed by the war in Iraq at 22 percent, illegal immigration at 10 percent and terrorism at 7 percent.

Nineteen percent of Republicans said illegal immigration was their most important issue, putting it in second place, followed by the war in Iraq and terrorism at 17 percent and health care at 8 percent.

Sixty percent of Republicans say they'll definitely support the candidate they are now backing. That number climbs to 76 percent for Democrats.

Likely Democratic primary voters view Clinton and Obama on roughly equal terms. Seventy-nine percent say they would be satisfied if Clinton were the nominee; an equal number feel the same way about Obama. Seventy-nine percent say it's likely Clinton can win the nomination; 82 percent say the same about Obama.

The two candidates are essentially tied on immigration, Iraq and the economy, but Clinton has an advantage on health care and abortion

Well at leat we can say she ran a clean campaign.

 

[EnlightenmentHK]

"Likely Democratic primary voters would be equally happy if either candidate won the nomination, and they don't see a lot of difference between them on several top issues.

True.

"Likely Democratic primary voters would be equally happy if either candidate won the nomination, and they don't see a lot of difference between them on several top issues.

Extremely False.

 

[Trajan12]

It would be great for him to gain the edge, but not necessary. A tie and Hillary loses possibly the biggest chance to gain ground on him.

 

[Mark1031]

When will he bounce in Ohio? I would like to see him take both as this would end all the talk of possibilities for Hillary and the pressure to get out would be intense. I'm also very curious to see what she would do if she is swept on the 4th. If it's not a clean defeat eg. 1 and 1 I'm afraid she would fight on and things would continue to get more and more nasty.

 

[Archbob]

Thats also the poll that had Obama up by Double Digits in California. Most of the polls completely disagree with that one. CNN is trying to influence the outcome. Both Rasmussen Reports and another poll has Clinton at 54% to 38% on Feb 15th and I tend to trust Rasmussen then a CNN poll because they've been more correct in this election.

 

[The Yankee]

We won't know until March 5th, barring any kind of two-week counting like what happened in New Mexico.

 

[Azale]

Hillary definitely has south Texas wrapped up...just come out here and talk to a group of uncaring, dumb highschool students in a baseball stadium located in some backwater town and you'll get us on your side

Good to see the rest of the state catching OBAMA FEVER!!!

 

[Archbob]

Hillary definitely has south Texas wrapped up...just come out here and talk to a group of uncaring, dumb highschool students in a baseball stadium located in some backwater town and you'll get us on your side

Good to see the rest of the state catching OBAMA FEVER!!!

So catching Obama fever means your educated? It seems he's grabbing people who are riding on emotions alone. Not really the most intellegent decision. And CNN has been wrong is nearly every important poll by favoring Obama by like 15 points than where he actually is.

They had him at a double-digit lead in Cali and winning NH by a large margin. LOL

Most high school students can't vote, only some seniors can.

 

[GenMarshall]

So long as Obama takes a bite out of Billary's Political Machine the better.

 

[Azale]

So catching Obama fever means your educated? It seems he's grabbing people who are riding on emotions alone. Not really the most intellegent decision. And CNN has been wrong is nearly every important poll by favoring Obama by like 15 points than where he actually is.

They had him at a double-digit lead in Cali and winning NH by a large margin. LOL

Most high school students can't vote, only some seniors can.

I was being kinda sarcastic about OBAMA FEVER.

And yea, most high school students can't vote. That's why it was dumb that an entire highschool went to see her. Trust me though, its swaying plenty of people to vote Hillary just by virtue of the fact that she graced our area with her presence. It's frustratingly stupid

 

[Nylan]

Thats also the poll that had Obama up by Double Digits in California. Most of the polls completely disagree with that one. CNN is trying to influence the outcome. Both Rasmussen Reports and another poll has Clinton at 54% to 38% on Feb 15th and I tend to trust Rasmussen then a CNN poll because they've been more correct in this election.

I hate the fourth estate.

 

[Archbob]

I referrer to CNN now as the "Obama news network" along with MSNBC.
I actually watch fox news for coverage of the dem race.

 

[Stapel]

I referrer to CNN now as the "Obama news network" along with MSNBC.
I actually watch fox news for coverage of the dem race.

I had fairly concluded that CNN has a bias towards the dems, but not yet towards BHO. I think their earlier delegate reporting claimed some falsely increased leads for HRC. Not sure on CNN.

About fox: they have a clear bias against the dems, but an even stronger one agaisnt HRC. She is really portrayed as the devil's daughter by Foxnews. About the only thing Fox and I agree on .

 

[JerichoHill]

Well, at the moment Texas is a virtual dead heat, which favors Obama in the delegate projections since South Texas (majority Hispanic) has fewer delegates than the black urban areas.

 

[Abaddon]

American politics involves too much emotion

 

[Pannonius]

It doesn't surprise me.

 

[JerichoHill]

American politics involves too much emotion

As if politics in other countries do not involve emotion...

 

[Masquerouge]

Well, at the moment Texas is a virtual dead heat, which favors Obama in the delegate projections since South Texas (majority Hispanic) has fewer delegates than the black urban areas.

I'm afraid you lost me on that one. How can a tie mean one candidate is doing better in the delegate projection?

 

[I'm Cleo!]

Masquerouge,

Sometimes delegates are awarded by district, which (I think) have unequal numbers of people.

Cleo

 

[JerichoHill]

Delegates in Texas are apportioned based on Democratic turnout in the prior general election, in this case, 2006.

In that general election, black democrats turned out at higher than expected rates, whereas hispanic democrats turnout at a much lower rates than expected. Hence, more delegates were apportioned to state legislative districts with large black populations than were to one with large hispanic populations. Thus, the apportioned delegates up for grabs are disproportionally located in Obama friendly state legislative districts (ie, the demographics favor him).

Thus, Hillary could win a hispanic state leg district in south texas 57-43, but split total delegates (4) based on apportionment rules. Obama could win a black state leg district in Houston by the same margin, but gain on delegates (4-3) based on apportionment rules.

Thus, its entirely possible for Obama to lose Texas in terms of the popular vote, but gain more delegates than Clinton does. In fact, hillary probably needs to win texas by at least 10 points to prevent this from occuring.

I also need to mention that there the primary only involves 2/3 of total delegates. 1/3 are awarded via caucuses in the evening, which all voters can attend. Obama has shown a distinct advantage in caucuses, so this acts as his own personal firewall on a large Clinton victory.


It's relatively easy math, but no one really is talking about the texas system until recently. Heck, even the Clinton campaign didn't realize this until last week. That's sad.