Oh, Politics (AKA the US Electoral Map in 2010)

[North King]

This map is based on Five Thirty Eight's estimate on which states gain and lose seats in the electoral college after the 2010 census.

Well, strictly speaking, it's not exactly what he said. Oregon is even money to gain a seat, Washington slightly less so; if they were to each gain one, they'd probably take seats from New York (making their loss two) or California.

In any case, we can see the most consistent trend in US demographics continuing: people are moving out of the Northern states and into the "Sun Belt": traditionally red and conservative states. Texas, for example, gains four seats. Arizona gets two. Utah, Nevada, Florida, South and North Carolina, and Georgia get one. The northern "Rust Belt" loses seats from all over the place.

Louisiana is the one exception to the trend. For those who are either non-US residents or are US residents living under a stone for the last ten years, this is mostly due to the population loss from the flooding of New Orleans after hurricane Katrina.

If we were to apply this to the electoral map of 2008, John McCain would have gained seven electoral votes; Barack Obama would lose seven, and the total would be 358 - 180, still a fairly large Democratic win, but slightly smaller. Democrats also stand to lose many House seats as more are given to traditional red states.

However, one has to take into account that the red states are becoming purpler as people move into them. Obama wouldn't have won North Carolina, Florida, or Nevada without the new residents there. The Democrats even have a long-term chance at pushing Texas into the swing-state column, as most of the new population is from immigrants, while Arizona would have been extremely close in this election, perhaps even blue, if McCain wasn't the nominee.

What are people's thoughts on the matter? Should the Democrats be more concerned over the solid Democratic bastions which are losing votes, or excited over the prospect of new swing states? Does all this mean the country will be less polarized as more people live in the swing states, or will it simply lead to even more bitter campaigning all over the place?

 

[Ecofarm]

I predict Florida goes dem in the coming years. As anti-Kennedy Cubans die from old age, the south Florida base will be weakened sufficiently to swing the state. The farming north will lose out to the retiree (and over-crowded) south, central and west.

 

[Gooblah]

I thought South Florida was Democrat, north Florida Republican?

Michigan's going to have 14 or 15, we're bleeding population since there aren't any jobs - if economic policies enacted during this year don't work during Obama's first term, then I'm betting on a red Michigan.

 

[North King]

I thought South Florida was Democrat, north Florida Republican?

Michigan's going to have 14 or 15, we're bleeding population since there aren't any jobs - if economic policies enacted during this year don't work during Obama's first term, then I'm betting on a red Michigan.

Nah, we're only going to go down one. We've only bled a couple hundred thousand people: while Detroit/Flint has probably lost more than that, Grand Rapids has made up for it.

I do agree that Michigan's edging on red, though, this election being an exception.

 

[Godwynn]

I can't wait to see the new gerrymandering in Illinois and Texas.

 

[North King]

I can't wait to see the new gerrymandering in Illinois and Texas.

Oh, on that topic: redistricting will be interesting. In Michigan, we finally have a Democratic legislature, so we might see our House delegation swing blue.

 

[Gogf]

I predict Florida goes dem in the coming years. As anti-Kennedy Cubans die from old age, the south Florida base will be weakened sufficiently to swing the state. The farming north will lose out to the retiree (and over-crowded) south, central and west.

My impression was that quite a bit of the reason Cuban-Americans voted Republican was Elian Gonzales, not just the Bay Of Pigs.

 

[Nylan]

I predict Florida goes dem in the coming years. As anti-Kennedy Cubans die from old age, the south Florida base will be weakened sufficiently to swing the state. The farming north will lose out to the retiree (and over-crowded) south, central and west.

Central Florida isn't that blue just yet, but you've got the right general idea. I wonder why the rich conservatives don't move down here to shore things up...

 

[downtown]

Here in ohio, we're only projecting ourselves to lose one seat, not multiple. I also could have sworn Cali was going to get another seat...

I don't know the demographic data for the other places, but in Ohio, the people that are leaving in droves are Democratic constituencies...(people who are young, educated, and work in "new" industry). Obama won places like Colorado and Virgina in large part because of swarms of new, Democratic leaning immigrants....in large part in places like Ohio. This immigration pattern isn't unquie to Ohio...the midwestern states have suffered this "Brain Drain" for a while.

The folks that are sticking around the Buckeye State long term are those that have been left behind in the new economy...angry older white blue collar voters. These people trend republican. I would be more concerned Democratic Presidential performance in places like Ohio and Michigan (and look how they did in West Virgina, which is really a much bluer state than you might think), as opposed to places like Arizona and North Carolina. The later states are trending nicely into places that are going to be Democratic-friendly for a while.

 

[Godwynn]

Here in ohio, we're only projecting ourselves to lose one seat, not multiple. I also could have sworn Cali was going to get another seat...

I don't know the demographic data for the other places, but in Ohio, the people that are leaving in droves are Democratic constituencies...(people who are young, educated, and work in "new" industry). Obama won places like Colorado and Virgina in large part because of swarms of new, Democratic leaning immigrants....in large part in places like Ohio. This immigration pattern isn't unquie to Ohio...the midwestern states have suffered this "Brain Drain" for a while.

The folks that are sticking around the Buckeye State long term are those that have been left behind in the new economy...angry older white blue collar voters. These people trend republican. I would be more concerned Democratic Presidential performance in places like Ohio and Michigan (and look how they did in West Virgina, which is really a much bluer state than you might think), as opposed to places like Arizona and North Carolina. The later states are trending nicely into places that are going to be Democratic-friendly for a while.

In that case, I hope Ohio and Michigan lose a lot of seats!

 

[Ecofarm]

I thought South Florida was Democrat, north Florida Republican?

Our large influx of first-generation immigrants from Latin America are not the most liberal people in the country. They are generally religious, sexist and homophobic... MACHISIMO!

(That's rasist!)

Perhaps more importantly, the Cubans have the most significant power here and the older ones hate Kennedy - that has been the base for Miami Conservatism for a long time among the higher elected officials.

Florida has voted repub in national elections and had repub governors for decades. I believe it is on the cusp of change (nothing to do with Obama).

 

[Cutlass]

The communist red states that are getting more urbanized, like Virginia or North Carolina are getting more purple. The Republicans as a whole are facing really bad demographics until they grow up move to match the American public better. Or until the next inevitable time that the Democrats do something massively unpopular.

 

[amadeus]

The communist red states that are getting more urbanized, like Virginia or North Carolina are getting more purple. The Republicans as a whole are facing really bad demographics until they grow up move to match the American public better. Or until the next inevitable time that the Democrats do something massively unpopular.

Or until the GOP offers an actual alternative instead of just mimicking the Democrats.

 

[Ecofarm]

My impression was that quite a bit of the reason Cuban-Americans voted Republican was Elian Gonzales, not just the Bay Of Pigs.

That's true to some affect. Some of the younger Cubans rallied around that, but many understood that blood is thicker than politics (especially older, less easily enflammed ones). I remember the morning I checked the news and he was headed home with his father, I was so happy. It would have been nice if his father stayed, but they will live celebrity lives now so Cuba will not be too terrible for them.

 

[Cutlass]

Or until the GOP offers an actual alternative instead of just mimicking the Democrats.

The Democrats have been mimicking the Republicans for years. Hasn't done them any good. The Republicans offer an alternative now. It's just one the country is growing away from.

 

[amadeus]

The Republicans offer an alternative now.

Since when did big spending statism become something new, much less exclusive to the GOP?

 

[Cutlass]

Since when did big spending statism become something new, much less exclusive to the GOP?

It's different from the Democrats, so the voters have a choice between a centrist party and an extremist party.

 

[amadeus]

It's different from the Democrats, so the voters have a choice between a centrist party and an extremist party.

How can you tell which is which?

 

[Cutlass]

How can you tell which is which?

If you can't you shouldn't vote.

 

[Ecofarm]

Extremists? With 46% of the vote? Boggle.