Oil hits record above $92 on weak dollar

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Oil hits record above $92 on weak dollar

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices shot to an all-time high above $92 a barrel on Friday as the tumbling dollar and Nigerian output disruptions helped extend a rally that has lifted prices nearly 30 percent since August.

Worries that supplies may come up short ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter have fueled the rise, drawing a fresh wave of speculative money from investors.

U.S. crude settled up $1.40 at $91.86 a barrel, off the record $92.22 struck during electronic trading earlier.

Oil was closing in on its inflation-adjusted high of $101.70 seen over the course of April 1980, a year after the Iranian revolution and at the start of the Iran-Iraq war.

London Brent gained $1.21 to $88.69 a barrel.

"Fresh highs are now attracting fresh buying, especially following yesterday's violation of the futures highs just above the $90 level," said Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch & Associates in Galena, Illinois.

Prices jumped past $90 a barrel after a U.S. government report on Wednesday showed a sharp drop in crude stocks in the world's biggest energy consumer.

Oil got a boost on Friday after a rebel attack on a oil rig in OPEC-member Nigeria operated by Italian firm ENI shut 50,000 barrels per day of production.

Traders were also eyeing new U.S. sanctions against Iran, the No. 4 oil exporter, which is at odds with the U.N. Security Council over its nuclear program. Washington accuses Tehran's Revolutionary Guard of spreading weapons of mass destruction.

TUMBLING DOLLAR

Unprecedented weakness in the U.S. dollar has been another factor supporting dollar-denominated commodities.

In anticipation that the U.S. Federal Reserve may cut interest rates next week, the dollar hit record lows against the euro and a basket of currencies Friday.

Moves by central banks to cut interest rates and pump billions of dollars into financial markets to ease a credit crunch have added fuel to oil's rally.

Oil's drive to record highs has stirred concern from consumer governments, and the administration of President George W. Bush said Friday oil prices were "way too high."

But U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney said the nation's strategic oil stockpiles would not be used to reign in prices.

Analysts say the wider economic problems may be dragging down demand in the giant U.S. market, while there are some signs of a growth slowdown in China, the world's second largest consumer.

China's apparent oil demand grew at the slowest rate in 20 months in September, up just 0.3 percent from a year earlier.

Despite worries from big oil importers, members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have said they are unlikely to hike production at a meeting next month in Saudi Arabia.

The cartel has agreed to increase output by 500,000 barrels per day starting November 1, and members insist prices are not being driven by a supply shortfall.

Data from Lloyd's Marine Intelligence Unit showed OPEC's oil exports, excluding Angola, jumped 1 million bpd in the first two weeks of October versus the last two weeks of September.

(Additional reporting by Richard Valdmanis in New York; Jane Merriman and Janet Mcbride in London)

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071026/bs_nm/markets_oil_dc

Ouch !
A weake US dollar means exports are more competative but imports such as oil are becomming increasingly expensive. On the other hand 30% drop in the value of the US dollar meant that stock companies values have lost significant value due to inflation. Its troubling but not a crisis
 
It's been a decade that when the oil is getting high, the dollar is getting expensive, and when the oil is getting cheap, the dollar is getting strong.

The result of this is that, how silly as it sounds, oil prices are actually more stable in euros than in dollars! Something which is counter-intuitive considering that oil is traded in dollars...

Anyway, 10 years is a too long period for the correlation to be only random. There's necessarily an explanation, but I have found nothing conclusive yet.
 
It's been a decade that when the oil is getting high, the dollar is getting expensive, and when the oil is getting cheap, the dollar is getting strong.

The result of this is that, how silly as it sounds, oil prices are actually more stable in euros than in dollars! Something which is counter-intuitive considering that oil is traded in dollars...

Anyway, 10 years is a too long period for the correlation to be only random. There's necessarily an explanation, but I have found nothing conclusive yet.

You are right, but IMO also oil demand is inelastic and it's being pressured by China and India.
China is set to become the second biggest consumer of oil sometime now.
 
You are right, but IMO also oil demand is inelastic and it's being pressured by China and India.
China is set to become the second biggest consumer of oil sometime now.
That's obvious... but once oil reached record low in the early 2000's, the dollar was also very strong. How does China or India developments explain that?
 
That's obvious... but once oil reached record low in the early 2000's, the dollar was also very strong. How does China or India developments explain that?

Ok, IMO, World economic growth means that oil supply is much tighter, oil supply is inelastic on the short term and oil demand is inelastic so the result is the price of oil at $92.

So you have 3 big reasons for this multi-year oil price hike.
 
That's obvious... but once oil reached record low in the early 2000's, the dollar was also very strong. How does China or India developments explain that?

China's economy has nearly doubled in size since that time.

Also in 2000 the effects of the Financial Crisis were just being shaken off.
 
Things are only going to get worse. Most of the world's top oil-producing nations are looking at serious declines in production. Mexico, for example, has little more than twelve years left of production at current rates. There are also numerous other crises brewing that sooner or later is going to spell hard times for the entire world. Prepare for it.
 
Okay, so all we need to do is build 25 new refineries, drill off Florida, ANWR, invade Canada and Venezuela, and start developing cheaper methods to get it from coal.

Sorry, Canada.
 
I think an invasion will just raise the costs of getting the stuff out of the tar sands; it might make it uneconomical and halt production altogether. :lol:

NAFTA already says Canada cannot charge higher prices to America for energy than Canada charges its own citizens, so you would really just be making things worse.
 
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